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Explore state-level and industry level data that banks, credit unions and Fintechs can leverage to track the downturn and be correctly positioned for the recovery in this monthly Report.

Discover five business intelligence Reports that can help drive your strategies across the customer lifecycle.

Outstanding performance in the third quarter is a great headline focused on the resiliency of the American consumer. Business confidence and financials benefited from a consumer confidence boost as market conditions appeared to improve as inflation receded. Consumer spending remained elevated, supporting small business cashflow health, but a rising percentage of that consumer spend originated from leveraged consumer credit products. Creditors have been monitoring the rise in unsecured debt utilization and putting into action exposure limiting underwriting criteria.

Lenders are tightening underwriting criteria due to high delinquencies among consumers and small businesses amid inflation. People are revising their spending and investment plans. While technology companies thrive, sectors like logistics, Utilities, and Healthcare face challenges. Supply chain issues are easing, but reduced demand affects inventory orders, impacting trucking and logistics with lower tonnage and mileage. Consumers show resilience, bolstered by a strong job market, wage growth, and lower energy and food costs. However, dwindling savings and increased reliance on unsecured debt, along with the resumption of debt obligations like student loans, and ongoing inflation, put pressure on consumers. Recession fears are easing, but concerns for 2024 remain.

The Summer 2023 Report contains several insights on the economic landscape impacting small businesses, among them - rising delinquencies being a significant concern. The latest Report emphasizes the need for strategic planning and careful management of debt, along with an understanding of broader economic factors that may impact small business performance.

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Business owners continue to struggle to access quality labor, strengthen operations, and create backup supplier networks as supply chain disruption and inflation hamper delivery. Diesel prices are up 71% YOY according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the higher cost of energy is resulting in lower margins and impacting delivery of goods and services. These costs have been rising sharply since February 2022 and exacerbated challenges already being addressed by business owners in the 1st quarter of 2022 commodity, component, and inventory shortages. Small businesses are adjusting to a high-demand low supply market through 2022. Subscribe to this quarterly Report here or follow our full suite of quarterly insights on our Commercial Insights Hub.

Q1 GDP grew by 1.1% annualized, following a 2.6% gain in Q4 2022. However, recent data's accuracy is affected by weather-induced consumer spending and unusual seasonal adjustments. Notably, Q1 GDP doesn't reflect the impact of tightened lending standards yet. The core of the economy, measured by real final sales to domestic purchasers, rose by a solid 2.9% annualized, driven by strong consumer spending concentrated in early Q1 and aided by significant cost-of-living payments. Inventory reduction subtracted 2.3ppts from Q1 GDP growth, and this trend is expected to persist as businesses draw from existing stockpiles to meet demand. The Oxford Economics US Business Cycle Indicator declined for two consecutive months, indicating weak Q1 performance. The indicator suggests feeble Q2 growth and a possible H2 2023 recession.

The Spring Report contains several insights on small business performance including - delinquencies are rising for small businesses across regions and products, and businesses are making decisions about how they repay debt. The economy will slow in 2023, and consumer and small business credit health and spending behavior will adjust to the new reality. Cashflows will be tested in industry segments focused on home-based work/life as the labor force returns to the office, but some businesses require hybrid work schedules to encourage collaboration and a more connected work environment.

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