Tag: commercial insights

The Fall Beyond The Trends report offers a unique view into the challenges hitting small businesses, and how to navigate a cooling economy.

Join Experian for the Q1 2024 Quarterly Business Credit Review as we dive into quarterly small business credit trends June 4th at 10am PT.

About the Main Street Report Experian and Oxford Economics have released the Q4 2023 Main Street Report. The report brings deep insight into the overall financial well-being of the small-business landscape, as well as providing commentary around what specific trends mean for credit grantors and the small-business community. Critical factors in the Main Street Report include a combination of business credit data (credit balances, delinquency rates, utilization rates, etc.) and macroeconomic information (employment rates, income, retail sales, industrial production, etc.). Q4 Report Highlights As we reflect on the journey of the American economy through the last quarter of 2023 and look ahead to 2024, it's clear that the resilience and adaptability of small businesses and consumers have been nothing short of remarkable. Despite facing challenges such as inflation and tighter lending conditions, the entrepreneurial spirit that defines Main Street has not only endured but is poised for growth. Unwavering Consumer Confidence Spurs Economic Optimism The U.S. economy, riding on the robustness of consumer spending, has once again demonstrated its strength. Consumers have outpaced holiday spending expectations, injecting vital liquidity into small businesses. This surge in spending has enabled these businesses to pay down debt and pivot towards capital expenditure and strategic growth planning for the coming year. The foundation of our economic optimism is solidified by the expected continuation of consumer support, bolstered by a strong labor market, and rising disposable incomes. Main Street Report Points to Easing Delinquency Among Small Businesses In the latest report, Oxford Economics anticipates an improved economic backdrop, along with a shift towards easier financing conditions, will keep the rise in corporate delinquencies muted and limit the normalization of bankruptcies over the coming year. Possibility of Changing Fed Policies Bodes Well for Innovation While headwinds such as inflation and cautious lending persist, the horizon is bright for small businesses. The Federal Reserve's anticipated policy adjustments, alongside a resilient consumer base, provide a green light for investment and growth. The adaptability and forward-thinking approach of small businesses will be crucial in harnessing these opportunities, driving not only their success but also contributing to the broader economic prosperity. Let It Grow As we stand on the threshold of 2024, the U.S. economy, powered by the dynamism of Main Street, is preparing to embark on a season of growth. The challenges of the past have paved the way for a future marked by resilience, innovation, and optimism. Small businesses, supported by a strong economic foundation and favorable policies, are set to lead the charge in driving forward the American dream. Download Your Copy of the Q4 2023 Main Street Report Today!

The Beyond the Trends report highlights indicators which offer insights on labor, prices, commercial credit and economic conditions.

Experian and Oxford Economics Main Street Report for Q3 shows signs of slowdown despite strong Q3 expansion and changing credit conditions.

New Report: Will the 2023 holiday season hinge on generosity? The latest Beyond the Trends report offers evidence it may.

Experian has released the Summer 2022 Beyond the Trends report, our deep dive on the small business economy based on our commercial small business insights.

Interest rate hike, flat unemployment rate, strong job growth are just a few of the trends we are following in the Commercial Pulse Report.

We've all been experiencing higher prices for food, housing, and certainly at the gasoline pump. If these economic headwinds have  raised concerns about how small businesses are being impacted, we have some fresh perspectives in the Spring 2022 Beyond the Trends report. Beyond The Trends offers a unique view of the small business economy based on what we see in the data. With up to date information on over 25 million active businesses and how they perform from a credit standpoint. Here’s my quick take on what’s in our latest Beyond The Trends Report The next 12 months will be filled with headwinds and mines for small businesses. These entities have been shoring up resources, operations, building in cost increases, and creating backup supplier networks as supply chain disruption and inflation will batter the ship through 2023. Highlights: Consumers seek higher paying jobs, creating labor shortages in blue collar industries, as wage gains are being eaten away by increasing U.S. inflation. Transportation and the utility industries have seen a 69% increase in delinquent balances tied closely to the increase in U.S. inflation. A 4X increase in delinquent balances associated with mining as the US took steps to move away from fossil fuel. Commercial card lending grew 9.9% in the 4th quarter, even as delinquency rates began their upward climb. Energy Takes Center Stage Energy costs are hitting margins and impacting delivery of goods and services. US energy costs  were up 27% in January according to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics. These costs have been rising sharply since March 2021 and will be exacerbated in the 1st quarter 2022 by global reaction to the Russian incursion in Ukraine. Energy supply chains will be disrupted by sanctions and higher transport costs. !function(e,i,n,s){var t="InfogramEmbeds",d=e.getElementsByTagName("script")[0];if(window[t]&&window[t].initialized)window[t].process&&window[t].process();else if(!e.getElementById(n)){var o=e.createElement("script");o.async=1,o.id=n,o.src="https://e.infogram.com/js/dist/embed-loader-min.js",d.parentNode.insertBefore(o,d)}}(document,0,"infogram-async"); Inflation Looms Consumers and small businesses will feel the pinch of lower supply and higher costs. Inflation, outside this event and on the rise, will remain above the Federal Reserve target of 2% through the end of 2022, even as the Fed raises rates and begins to reduce their balance sheet. The US supply chain will be in a slow recovery mode as infrastructure stimulus and global markets return to capacity. Small businesses are adjusting to a high demand low supply market through 2023. !function(e,i,n,s){var t="InfogramEmbeds",d=e.getElementsByTagName("script")[0];if(window[t]&&window[t].initialized)window[t].process&&window[t].process();else if(!e.getElementById(n)){var o=e.createElement("script");o.async=1,o.id=n,o.src="https://e.infogram.com/js/dist/embed-loader-min.js",d.parentNode.insertBefore(o,d)}}(document,0,"infogram-async"); Download Spring Beyond The Trends Report