Financial Services
While an overdue economic downturn has been long discussed, arguably no one could have foreseen the economic disruption from COVID-19 to the extent that’s been witnessed thus far. But now that we’re here, is there a line of sight to financial institutions’ next move? With the current situation marked by a history-making rise in unemployment, massive amounts of uncertainty within the market as well as for consumers and small businesses and consumer spending changes, loss forecasting is more important now than ever before. After the longest period of economic growth in history, financial institutions are caught off guard. While large banks are more prepared as they have stress testing capabilities in place and are estimating the potential large impact on their loss allowances, the since-delayed CECL requirements emphasized forecasting for the masses, and yet many are still under-equipped. Loss forecasting has evolved from a need for a small few to now a necessary strategy for all. While some financial institutions will look to loss forecasting to potentially reduce the severity of impact for the path ahead during these times (or even how they might come out stronger than their competition), for many, loss forecasting is the key to survival. Bare necessities. Understanding the possible outcomes of the pandemic’s impact is necessary to make critical business decisions. Lenders are likely receiving numerous questions about their portfolios and possible outcomes. These questions include, but are not limited to: What could the range of outcomes to my portfolio based on expert forecasts of macroeconomic conditions? How will I make lending decisions in the short term? Do my models need to change? How bad could charge offs be for my portfolio? If I have reduced marketing and application flows, at what point do I need to begin opening new accounts or consider portfolio acquisitions? How can lenders get answers? Loss forecasting. As Mohammed Chaudhri, Experian Chief Economist, said, “Loss forecasting is more pivotal than ever…existing models are not going to be up to the task of accurately predicting losses.” Whatever questions you’re receiving, you need certain necessary pieces of information to navigate this new era of loss forecasting. Those pieces are frequently updated client and industry data; ongoing access to expert macroeconomic forecasts; and sophisticated and evolved forecasting models. Client and Industry Data Loan-level data, bankruptcy scores and customer-level attributes are key insights to fueling loss forecasting models. By combining several data sets and scores (and a comprehensive history of both) your organization can see greater benefits. Macroeconomic Forecasts As has been mentioned numerous times, the economic impact resulting from COVID-19 is not at all like the Great Recession. As such, leveraging macroeconomic forecasts, and specifically COVID-19 forecasts, is critical to analyzing the potential impacts to your organization. Sophisticated Models Whether building models on your own or leveraging an expert, the key ingredients include the innerworkings of the model, leveraging historical data and making sure that both the models and the data are updated regularly to ensure you have the most accurate, thorough forecasts available. Also, leveraging machine learning tools is imperative for model specification and evaluation. Fortunately, while model building and loss forecasting used to be synonymous with countless resources and dollar signs, innovation and digital transformation have made these strategies within reach for financial institutions of all sizes. Incorporating the right data (and ensuring that data is regularly updated), with the right tools and macroeconomic scenarios (including COVID-19, upside, baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios) enables you to get a line of sight into the actions you need to take now. Empowered with insights to compare and benchmark results, discover the cause of changes in results, explore result scenarios in advance, and access recommended optimizations, loss forecasting enables you to focus on the critical decisions your business depends on. Experian helps you with loss forecasting for now and the future. For more information, including an on-demand webinar Experian presented with Oliver Wyman as well as the opportunity to engage Experian experts into your loss forecasting strategy, please click the button below. Learn More
The economic impact of the COVID-19 health crisis is ever-evolving and requires great flexibility and planning from lenders. Shannon Lois, Experian’s Senior Vice President, Analytics, Consulting and Operations, discusses what lenders can expect and next steps to take. Q: Though COVID-19 is catalyzing a sharp economic slowdown, many experts expect it to be temporary and liken it more to a global natural disaster than the prior financial crisis. What are your reactions? SL: There is still debate as to whether we will have a U-shaped or a V-shaped recession and its probable severity and longevity. Regardless, we are in a recession caused by a health pandemic with uncertainty of what it will mean for our global economy and without a clear view as to when it will end. The sooner we can contain the virus the more it will help to curtail the size of the recession. The unemployment rates and the consumer lack of confidence in the future will continue to contract spending which in turn will continue to propagate the recession. Our ability to limit COVID-19 over the coming months will have a direct impact in the economy, although the effects will probably linger on for six or more months. Q: From an economic perspective, what are the current trends we’re seeing? SL: Unemployment has skyrocketed and every business sector has been impacted although with different degrees of severity. In particular, tourism/hospitality, airlines, automotive, consumer products and retail have suffered. Consumers’ financial status varies and will continue to fluctuate, and credit conditions tighten while welfare payments increase. The government programs that have started will help, but they’re not enough to counter a prolonged recession. As some states seek to reopen and others extend their shelter in place orders, we will continue to see economic changes, with different sectors bouncing back or dipping further depending on their geographic location. Q: How does the economic slowdown compare to what we may have expected previously? SL: This recession is different than anything we have encountered previously not only because of the health concerns and implication of our population but because of the uncertainty of it all. As an example, social distancing has significantly and immediately impacted consumer demand but overall it is their low confidence in the future that will cause a continuous drop in discretionary and non-discretionary spending. Not only do we have challenges on the demand side, we also are seeing the same on the supply side with no automotive manufacturing occurring in the USA, and international oil flooding the market causing negative impact on domestic oil and the broad energy market. Q: How do the unemployment and liquidity challenges come into play? SL: The unemployment rate has already jumped to a record high. Most consumers are facing liquidity and affordability challenges and businesses do not have enough cash reserves to sustain them. Consumer activity has shifted drastically across all channels while lenders are exercising more caution. If this is a V-shaped recession (and hopefully it will be), then most activity is bound to spring back quickly in Q3. With companies safeguarding some jobs and the help of governments’ supplemental programs, businesses will restore supply and consumer demand will get a kick start. Q: What is the smartest next play for financial institutions? SL: The path forward requires several steps. First, understand your customers, existing and new. Refine your policies with the right information around your customers’ financial situations and extend programs (forbearance and loan payment forgiveness) as needed under the right guidelines. It’s also important to use refreshed data to lend to consumers and businesses who need it now more than ever, with the proper policies and fraud checks in place. Finally, increase your agility to operate effectively and dynamically with automation, interactive communication and self-serving digital tools. Experian is committed to helping lenders throughout these uncertain times. For more resources, visit our Look Ahead 2020 Resource Hub. Learn more About Our Expert Shannon Lois, Senior Vice President, Analytics, Consulting and Operations, Decision Analytics Shannon and her team of analysts, scientists, credit, fraud and marketing risk management experts provide results-driven consulting services and state-of-the-art advanced analytics, science and data products to clients in a wide range of businesses, including banking, auto, credit, utility, marketing and finance. Prior to her current role, she founded the Advisory Services practice at Experian, driving to actionable and proven solutions for our clients’ most pressing business problems.
With jobs losses mounting and the prospects for a quick economic rebound fading, some segments of the financial markets are beginning to bet that the Federal Reserve will take interest rates negative for the first time in U.S. history. If that happens, it could have a profound impact on the U.S. economy, and more specifically, on financial institutions. While other nations such as Denmark, Japan, Sweden, and Switzerland have experimented with negative rates over the years, the U.S. has shied away – both for political and economic reasons. Instead, when interest rates are near zero, the Fed prefers to use a mix of large-scale asset purchases and forward guidance to support the economy. In the current crisis, the Fed has also launched several new emergency lending programs to ensure the smooth functioning of the financial system. The question remains, however, if these tools will be enough to keep the U.S. out of a deep recession, especially if Congress fatigues on further fiscal support. The Fed is independent but keep an eye on the markets In his May 13th remarks to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that he and the rest of the rate-setting committee unanimously shared the same view on negative rates: “For now, it is not something we are considering”. While some market watchers looked for clues in the “for now” phrasing, it was clear from the rest of his remarks that the bar for enacting negative rates was set very, very high. However, despite the Fed having independence in its policy-making decisions, financial markets and to some extent, politics, still have influence. And there is precedent for markets exerting pressure on the Fed and perhaps even getting their way. In 2013, when then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made a surprise announcement that the Fed would reduce the level of asset purchases, global financial markets went into a frenzy. That period, now known as the “Taper Tantrum”, altered the way the Fed signals its policy actions. More recently, the big declines in equity markets in late 2018 were seen by many as a primary driver in the Fed’s sudden U-turn from raising rates four times that year to lowering them three times in 2019. Now, with equity markets wanting more stimulus and traders in fed fund futures appearing to anticipate negative rates from the central bank in early 2021, there is concern that the markets are trying to bully their way again. And with the president’s renewed call for the Fed to take rates negative, there is some reason to believe that “not now” could become “now” sooner than many expect. Concerns for financial institutions While several central banks have resorted to negative interest rate policy for years, the efficacy of its use is unclear. But what is clear, is that financial institutions bear the greatest burden in implementing the policy. Currently in the U.S., banks earn interest on excess reserves held at the Fed. Negative rates would essentially flip the script and penalize this practice, forcing banks either to pay the Fed interest or do something else with the money. The hope is that this will encourage banks to make more loans and stimulate the economy. However, as Fed Chair Powell said in his remarks, he believes that negative rates could have the opposite effect and curtail lending. Since negative rates would put a downward pressure on interest rates across the board, the net interest margin – the spread banks make between what they pay depositors and what they charge for loans – would be compressed and profitability would sink. If banks and other financial institutions are struggling, credit availability could decline when it is needed the most. Why it matters Financial institutions cannot ignore the possibility of negative interest rates in the U.S. as it would have wide-ranging effects and potentially significant consequences. And while Fed officials have said they are not considering negative rates, the notion is not totally off the table. As the famous economist, Stanley Fischer, advised his fellow central bankers in his well-known piece “Central Bank Lessons from the Global Crisis”: “In a crisis, central bankers (and no doubt other policymakers) will often find themselves deciding to implement policy actions that they never thought they would have to undertake – and these are frequently policy actions that they would prefer not to have to undertake. Hence, a few final words of advice for central bankers: Never say never.”
The current pandemic will affect the way financial institutions lend and provide credit. Shawn Rife, Experian’s Director of Product Scoring, discusses the ways that financial institutions can navigate the COVID-19 crisis. Check out what he had to say: What implications does the global pandemic have on financial institutions’ analytical needs? SR: In the customer lifecycle, there are 4 different stages: prospecting, acquisitions, portfolio management, and collections. During times of economic uncertainty, lenders typically take additional actions to ensure that there’s a first line of defense against delinquencies and payment stress. Expanding their focus to incorporate account review/portfolio management becomes particularly important. During this time, clients will be looking for leadership, early warning signs, and ways to recession-proof their portfolios (account management), while growing and maintaining their approvals in a healthy way (originations). Lenders may be well advised to delay any focus on collections, since many consumers may be facing major payment stress through no mismanagement of their own doing. Another critical component is with the rollout of government stimulus packages, which lenders can use to identify people in stress who could benefit for second chance opportunities they may not have otherwise been able to receive. As more consumers seek credit, from an analytics perspective, what considerations should financial institutions be making during this time? SR: Financial institutions should be assessing and pre-identifying situations that might place consumers in positions of elevated financial stress. That way, organizations can implement solutions to identify and help at-risk consumers before they fall delinquent. The recent Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) – coupled with Experian’s score treatment, are designed to protect consumers against score declines during times of crisis. Furthermore, lenders can provide forbearance and loan deferment programs to help consumers. For lenders, credit risk scores, models, and attributes are the best ways to identify – and even predict - delinquency risk. The FICO® Resilience Index can also identify consumers who are particularly susceptible to delinquency risk directly due to macroeconomic uncertainty. This gives lenders the opportunity to evaluate their portfolios for loss and connect with consumers who may be in need of further support. What is the smartest next play for financial institutions? SR: For financial institutions, the smart play is to add alternative data into their data-driven decisioning strategies as much as possible. Alternative data works to enhance your ability to see a consumer’s entire credit portfolio, which gives lenders the confidence to continue to lend – as well as the ability to track and monitor a consumer’s historical performance (which is a good indicator of whether or not a consumer has both the intention and ability to repay a loan). How will the new attribute subset list benefit financial institutions during this time? SR: Experian’s series of crisis attributes is an example of attributes that can be predictive in times of a crisis. These lists were designed to follow the 3 E’s – Expand, Enhance, and provide Ease of use. Enhance – With these attributes, lenders aren’t limited to traditional data. These attributes allow lenders to look at the entirety of a consumer’s credit or repayment behavior and use more data to make better lending decisions. This becomes crucial in a challenging environment. Expand – This data can also help lenders identify consumers who are in the market for products and services, even if there the lending criteria becomes more stringent. This can open doors and new opportunities for 40-50 million new customers, particularly ones that may not fit initial lending criteria. Ease of Use – Experian has put together the most predictive elements that can identify consumer resilience and potential financial stress in this challenging economy. Experian is committed to helping your organization during times of uncertainty. For more resources, visit our Look Ahead 2020 Hub. Learn more Shawn M. Rife, Director of Risk Scoring, Experian Consumer Information Services, North America Shawn Rife manages Experian’s credit risk scoring models, focused on empowering clients to maximize the scope and influence of their lending universe - while minimizing risk - and complying with ever-changing regulatory standards. Shawn also leads the implementation of Alternative Data within the lending environment, as well as key product implementation initiatives. Prior to Experian, Shawn held key consumer insights and predictive analytics roles for Consumer Packaged Goods and internet companies. Over his career, Shawn has focused on market segmentation, competitive research, new product development and consumer advocacy. He also holds a Master’s degree from Harvard University and a Bachelor’s degree in Political Science and Economics.
When running a credit report on a new applicant, you must ensure Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA) compliance before accessing, using and sharing the collected data. The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act has impacted credit reporting under the FCRA, as has new guidance from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). Recent updates include: The CARES Act amended the FCRA to require furnishers who agree to an “accommodation,”1 to report the account as current, although it is permitted to continue to report the account as delinquent if the account was delinquent before the accommodation was made. Although not legally obligated, data furnishers should continue furnishing information to the credit reporting agencies (CRAs) during the COVID-19 crisis, and make sure that information reported is complete and accurate. Below is a brief FCRA-related compliance overview2 covering various FCRA requirements3 when requesting and using consumer credit reports for an extension of credit permissible purpose. For more information regarding your responsibilities under the FCRA as a user of consumer reports, please consult your Legal Counsel and the Notice to Users of Consumer Reports: Obligations of Users Under the FCRA handbook located on our website. Before obtaining a consumer report you have… Reviewed your federal and state regulations and laws related to consumer reports, scores, decisions, etc. Made sure you have a valid permissible purpose for pulling the consumer report. Certified compliance to the CRA from which you are getting the consumer report. You have certified that you complied with all the federal and state requirements. After you take an adverse action based on a consumer report you… Provide the consumer with an oral, written or electronic notice of the adverse action. Provide written or electronic disclosure of the numerical credit score used to take the adverse action, or when providing a “risk-based pricing” notice. Provide the consumer with an oral, written or electronic notice, which includes the below information: Name, address and telephone number of CRA that supplied the report, if nationwide. A statement that the CRA did not make the adverse decision and therefore can’t explain why the decision was made. Notice of the consumer’s right to a free copy of their report from the CRA, if requested within 60 days. Notice of the consumer’s right to dispute with the CRA the accuracy or completeness of any information in a consumer report provided by the CRA. Provide the consumer with a “risk-based pricing” notice if credit was granted but on less favorable terms based on information in their consumer report. We understand how challenging it is to understand and meet all your obligations as a data furnisher – we’re here to make it a little easier. Click below to speak with a representative and gain more insight on how the CARES Act impacts FCRA reporting. Download overview Speak with a representative 1An “accommodation” is defined as “an agreement to defer one or more payments, make a partial payment, forbear any delinquent amounts, modify a loan or contract, or any other assistance or relief” granted to a consumer affected by COVID-19 during the covered period. 2This FCRA overview is not legal guidance and does not enumerate all your requirements under the FCRA as a user of consumer reports. Additionally, this FCRA Overview is not intended to provide legal advice or counsel you regarding your obligations under the FCRA or any other federal or state law or regulation. Should you have any questions about your institution’s specific obligations under the FCRA or any other federal or state law or regulation, you should consult with your Legal Counsel. 3This FCRA overview is intended to be used solely by financial service providers when extending credit to consumers and does not include all FCRA regulatory obligations. You are responsible for regulatory compliance when requesting and using consumer reports, which includes adhering to all applicable federal and state statutes and regulations and ensuring that you have the correct policies and procedures in place.
This week, Experian released a new version of our CrossCore® digital identity and fraud risk platform, adding new tools and functionality to help businesses quickly respond to today’s emerging fraud threats. The ability to confidently recognize your customers and safeguard their digital transactions is becoming an increasing challenge for businesses. Fraud threats are already rising across the globe as fraudsters take advantage of the global health crisis and rapidly shifting economic conditions. CrossCore combines risk-based authentication, identity proofing and fraud detection into a single cloud platform, which means businesses can more quickly respond to an ever-changing environment. And with flexible decisioning orchestration and advanced analytics, businesses can make real-time risk decisions throughout the customer lifecycle. “Now more than ever, businesses need to lean on capabilities and technology that will allow them to rapidly respond in these challenging times, increase identity confidence in every transaction, and provide a safe and convenient experience for customers,” said E.K. Koh, Experian’s Senior Vice President of Global Identity & Fraud Solutions in a recent press release. “This new CrossCore release enables businesses to easily leverage best-in-class, pre-integrated identity and fraud services through simple self-service.” This new version of CrossCore features a cloud architecture, modern user interface, progressive risk assessments, faster response times, self-service workflow configuration, and a transactional volume reporting dashboard. These enhancements give you a simpler way to manage how backing applications are utilized, allow you to analyze key performance indicators in near real-time, and empower you to catch more fraud faster - without impacting the customer experience. “Recent Aite Group research shows that many banks have seen digital channel usage increase 250% in the wake of the pandemic, so ensuring a seamless and safe customer experience is more important than ever,” said Julie Conroy, Research Director at Aite Group. “Platforms such as CrossCore that can enable businesses to nimbly respond to changing patterns of customer behavior as well as rapidly evolving attack tactics are more important than ever, as financial services firms work to balance fraud mitigation with the customer experience.” CrossCore is the first identity and fraud platform that enables you to connect, access, and orchestrate decisions across multiple solutions. With the newest version, Experian enhances your ability to consolidate numerous fraud risk signals into a single, holistic assessment to improve operational processes, stay ahead of fraudsters, and protect your customers. Read Press Release Learn More About CrossCore
One of the most difficult parts of combating fraud is the ability to distinguish between the variety of fraud types. To properly manage your fraud efforts, you need to be able to differentiate between first party fraud and third party fraud so you can determine the best treatment. After all, if you’re treating first party fraud as though it’s third party fraud, the customer you’re contacting for verification will give whatever information they need to in order to continue their criminal actions. So how do you verify each type of fraud without adding additional overhead or increasing the friction experienced by your customers? Combating Fraud During an Economic Downturn Particularly in times of economic uncertainty, the ability to detect and identify individual fraud types allows you to work to prevent them in the future. Through proper identification, you can also apply the correct treatments to maximize the effectiveness of your fraud response teams, since the treatment for first and third party fraud is different. During the economic upswing, first party fraud was a secondary concern. Businesses were easing friction to help continue growth. Now, the same customers that businesses thought would drive growth are hurting and unable to help offset the losses caused by bad actors. Now is the time to revisit existing fraud prevention and mitigation strategies to ensure that fraud is properly identified, and the correct treatments are applied. Introducing Precise ID® Model Suite Experian’s Precise ID Model Suite combines identity analytics with advanced fraud risk models to: Protect the entire customer journey again fraud – across account opening, login, maintenance and transactions Distinguish first-party, third-party, and synthetic identity fraud to determine the best next action Enable agility during changing market conditions Maintain regulatory compliance (including: KYC, CIP, GLBA, FCRA, FFIEC, PATRIOT Act, FACTA, and more) Improve overall fraud management strategies and reduce losses Precise ID Model Suite allows you to detect and distinguish types of fraud with a single call – enabling your business to maximize efficiency and eliminate redundancy across your fraud prevention teams. By accurately recognizing risk, and in particular, recognizing that first party fraud is in fact a type of fraud distinct from credit risk, you’re able to protect your portfolio and your customers. Learn more
After two consecutive emergency meetings in March and numerous stimulus announcements, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) finally got back on track and wrapped up their standard two-day meeting on April 29th. While Fed officials did not make any changes to the federal funds rate – which is currently sitting near zero - or to the level of purchases of treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, they did provide a glimpse into how long rates are likely to remain at their current levels. Hint: It is going to be a while. Understanding the Fed’s statement In order to get a clearer picture of what the Fed is thinking, skip the headlines and go straight to the source – the post-meeting press release. Here is the most important paragraph from their statement (with the key components underlined): “The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term. In light of these developments, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.” Just by taking the statement at face value, it is clear the Fed is going to keep rates where they are for some time, but for how long? That depends on how the key phrases are interpreted. The first, “over the medium term”, seems simple but requires some detective work. What does “medium term” mean? In the post-meeting press conference, the Fed Chairman was asked this question and he alluded that it likely means a year or more. So, there is part 1 - the Fed expects to keep rates near zero for at least a year. That is not all that surprising, but it does provide a floor: a minimum timeframe. Key phrase 2, however, requires a bit more effort but is where the real story lives. The dual mandate is no longer a balancing act “The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.” There is a lot of economics in that sentence. The Fed has been mandated by Congress to achieve two primary goals – maximum employment and price stability (inflation near 2%). These two goals, or the “dual mandate” as they are often referred to, seem simple but have historically been at odds. The thinking went that if the Fed kept interest rates low to support employment, then inflation would rise. And if the Fed increased interest rates to control inflation, then employment would decline. A delicate balance - at least it was thought. Somewhere in the last couple of years Fed officials have realized that even after a decade of near-zero interest rates following the financial crisis and very-low levels of unemployment, inflation has remained persistently below their 2% target. Something has broken in the relationship. This is key, because it means that the Fed now feels free to keep interest rates exceptionally low in order to get employment back on track, without having to worry about inflation; and may in fact need to keep rates lower for longer in order to boost inflation. Both sides of the dual mandate now appear to require low rates. Chasing “maximum employment” With inflation no longer a priority for Fed officials at the moment, their sights are set squarely on achieving the maximum employment portion of the mandate. But what does it mean to achieve “maximum employment”? Well, it is an elusive target, but in general, it is the point at which rising wages leads to higher inflation – the result of businesses increasing pay to compete for a shrinking supply of workers. What is known is that even when the unemployment rate was at a 50-year low of 3.5% in early 2020, wages were not rising much. Which indicates that the economy may have been near maximum employment but was not quite there yet. So, to achieve maximum employment, unemployment needs to be somewhere near 3.5% and that could take some time, a long time. Current range estimates show the unemployment rate rising to anywhere between 12 – 30% in the coming months. And a recent report out of the Congressional Budget Office projected that unemployment will still be around 9.5% at the end of 2021. The last time the unemployment rate was at 9.5% was right after the financial crisis, and from that point it took nearly a decade for the rate to fall to 3.5%. And while it is not expected that the current crisis will be as prolonged as the previous one, it still provides a reference point as to how long it can take to recover job losses. So how long does the Fed expect to keep rates near zero? One year at the very minimum, easily two years, and perhaps up to a decade.
Today’s lending market has seen a significant increase in alternative business lending, with companies utilizing new data assets and technology. As the lending landscape becomes increasingly competitive, consumers have more choices than ever when it comes to lending products. To drive profitable growth, lenders must find new ways to help applicants gain access to the loans they need. How Spring EQ is leveraging Experian BoostTM Home equity lender Spring EQ turned to Experian’s first-of-its-kind financial tool that empowers consumers to add positive payments directly into their credit file to assist applicants with attaining the best loan opportunities and rates. By using Experian BoostTM, which captures the value of consumer’s utility and telecom trade lines, in their current lending process, Spring EQ can help applicants near approval or risk thresholds move to higher risk tiers and qualify for better loan terms and conditions. Driving growth with consumer-permissioned data Over 40 million consumers in the U.S. either have no credit file or have insufficient information in their files to generate a traditional credit score. Consumer-permissioned data empowers these individuals to leverage their online financial data and payment histories to gain better access to loans and other financial services while providing lenders with a more comprehensive view of their creditworthiness. According to Experian research, 70% of consumers see the benefits of sharing additional financial information and contributing positive payment history to their credit file if it increases their odds of approval and helps them access more favorable credit terms. Read our case study for more insight on using Experian Boost to: Make better lending decisions Offer or underwrite credit to more people Promote the right credit products Increase conversion and utilization rates Read case study Learn more about Experian Boost
This is the next article in our series about how to handle the economic downturn – this time focusing on how to prevent fraud in the new economic environment. We tapped two new experts—Chris Ryan, Market Lead, Fraud and Identity and Tischa Agnessi, Go-to-Market Lead, Decisioning Software—to share their thoughts on how to keep fraud out of your portfolio while continuing to lend. Q: What new fraud trends do you expect during the economic downturn? CR: Perhaps unsurprisingly, we tend to see high volumes of fraud during economic downturn periods. First, we anticipate an uptick in third-party fraud, specifically account takeover or ATO. It’ll be driven by the need for first-time users to be forced online. In particular, the less tech-savvy crowd is vulnerable to phishing attacks, social engineering schemes, using out-of-date software, or landing on a spoofed page. Resources to investigate these types of fraud are already strained as more and more requests come through the top of the funnel to approve new accounts. In fact, according to Javelin Strategy & Research’s 2020 Identity Fraud Study, account takeover fraud and scams will increase at a time when consumers are feeling financial stress from the global health and economic crisis. It is too early to predict how much higher the fraud rates will go; however, criminals become more active during times of economic hardships. We also expect that first party fraud (including synthetic identity fraud) will trend upwards as a result of the deliberate abuse of credit extensions and additional financing options offered by financial services companies. Forced to rely on credit for everyday expenses, some legitimate borrowers may take out loans without any intention of repaying them – which will impact businesses’ bottom lines. Additionally, some individuals may opportunistically look to escape personal credit issues that arise during an economic downturn. The line between behaviors of stressed consumers and fraudsters will blur, making it more difficult to tell who is a criminal and who is an otherwise good consumer that is dealing with financial pressure. Businesses should anticipate an increase in synthetic identity fraud from opportunistic fraudsters looking to take advantage initial financing offers and the cushions offered to consumers as part of the stimulus package. These criminals will use the economic upset as a way to disguise the fact that they’re building up funds before busting out. Q: With payment stress on the rise for consumers, how can lenders manage credit risk and prevent fraud? TA: Businesses wrestle daily with problems created by the coronavirus pandemic and are proactively reaching out to consumers and other businesses with fresh ideas on initial credit relief, and federal credit aid. These efforts are just a start – now is the time to put your recession readiness plan and digital transformation strategies into place and find solutions that will help your organization and your customers beyond immediate needs. The faceless consumer is no longer a fraction of the volume of how organizations interact with their customers, it is now part of the new normal. Businesses need to seek out top-of-line fraud and identity solutions help protect themselves as they are forced to manage higher digital traffic volumes and address the tough questions around: How to identify and authenticate faceless consumers and their devices How to best prevent an overwhelming number of fraud tactics, including first party fraud, account takeover, synthetic identity, bust out, and more. As time passes and the economic crisis evolves, we will all adapt to yet another new normal. Organizations should be data-driven in their approach to this rapidly changing credit crisis and leverage modern technology to identify financially stressed consumers with early-warning indicators, predict future customer behavior, and respond quickly to change as they deliver the best treatment at the right time based on customer-specific activities. Whether it’s preparing portfolio risk assessment, reviewing debt management, collections, and recovery processes, or ramping up your fraud and identity verification services, Experian can help your organization prepare for another new normal. Experian is continuing to monitor the updates around the coronavirus outbreak and its widespread impact on both consumers and businesses. We will continue to share industry-leading insights to help financial institutions differentiate legitimate consumers from fraudsters and protect their business and customers. Learn more About Our Experts [avatar user=\"ChrisRyan\" /] Chris Ryan, Market Lead, Fraud and Identity Chris has over 20 years of experience in fraud prevention and uses this knowledge to identify the most critical fraud issues facing individuals and businesses in North America, and he guides Experian’s application of technology to mitigate fraud risk. [avatar user=\"tischa.agnessi\" /] Tischa Agnessi, Go-to-Market Lead, Decisioning Software Tischa joined Experian in June of 2018 and is responsible for the go to market strategy for North America’s decisioning software solutions. Her responsibilities include delivering compelling propositions that are unique and aligned to markets, market problems, and buyer and user personas. She is also responsible for use cases that span the PowerCurve® software suite as well as application platforms, such as Decisioning as a ServiceSM and Experian®One.
The coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak is causing widespread concern and economic hardship for consumers and businesses across the globe – including financial institutions, who have had to refine their lending and downturn response strategies while keeping up with compliance regulations and market changes. As part of our recently launched Q&A perspective series, Shannon Lois, Experian’s Head of DA Analytics and Consulting and Bryan Collins, Senior Product Manager, tackled some of the tough questions for lenders. Here’s what they had to say: Q: What trends and triggers should lenders be prepared to react to? BC: Lenders are still trying to figure out how to assess risk between the broader, longer-term impacts of the pandemic and the near-term Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act that extends relief funds and deferment to consumers and small businesses. Traditional lending processes are not possible, lenders will have to adjust underwriting strategies and workflows as they deploy hardship programs while complying with the Act. From a utilization perspective, lenders need to look for near-term trends on payments, balances and skipped payments. From an extension standpoint, they should review limits extended or reduced by other lenders. Critical trends to look for would be missed or late auto payments, non-traditional credit shopping and rental payment delinquencies. Q: What should lenders be doing to plan for an uptick in delinquencies? SL: First, lenders should make sure they have a complete picture of how credit risk and losses are evolving, as well as any changes to their consumers’ affordability status. This will allow a pointed refinement of their customer management strategies (I.e. payment holidays, changing customer to cheaper product, offering additional services, re-pricing, term amendment and forbearance management.) Second, given the increased stress on collection processes and regulations guidelines, they should ensure proper and prepared staffing to handle increased call volumes and that agency outsourcing and automation is enabled. Additionally, lenders should migrate to self-service and interactive communication channels whenever possible while adopting new segmentation schemas/scores/attributes based on fresh data triggers to queue lower risk accounts entering collections. Q: How can lenders best help their customers? SL: Lenders should understand customers’ profiles with vulnerability and affordability metrics allowing changes in both treatment and payment. Payment Holidays are common in credit card management, consider offering payment freezes on different types of credit like mortgage and secured loans, as well as short term workout programs with lower interest rates and fee suppression. Additionally, lenders should offer self-service and FAQ portals with information about programs that can help customers in times of need. BC: Lenders can help by complying with aspects of the CARES Act guidance; they must understand how to deploy payment relief and hardship programs effectively and efficiently. Data integrity and accuracy of loan reporting will be critical. Financial institutions should adjust their collection and risk strategies and processes. Additionally, lenders must determine a way to address the unbanked population with relief checks. We understand how challenging it is to navigate the changing economic tides and will continue to offer support to both businesses and consumers alike. Our advanced data and analytics can help you refine your lending processes and better understand regulatory changes. Learn more About Our Experts: Shannon Lois, Head of DA Analytics and Consulting, Experian Data Analytics, North America Shannon and her team of analysts, scientists, credit, fraud and marketing risk management experts provide results-driven consulting services and state-of-the-art advanced analytics, science and data products to clients in a wide range of businesses, including banking, auto, credit, utility, marketing and finance. Shannon has been a presenter at many credit scoring and risk management conferences and is currently leading the Experian Decision Analytics advisory board. Bryan Collins, Senior Product Manager, Experian Consumer Information Services, North America Bryan is a member of Experian\'s CIS product management team, focusing on the Acquisitions suite and our evolving Ascend Identity Services Platform. With more than 20 years of experience in the financial services and credit industries, Bryan has established strong partnerships and a thorough understanding of client needs. He was instrumental in the launch of CIS\'s segmentation suite and led product management for lender and credit-related initiatives in Auto. Prior to joining Experian, Bryan held marketing and consumer experience roles in consumer finance, business lending and card services.
Many small businesses in the hardest-hit states missed out on the first round of federal relief through the recently created Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act established the PPP in order to disburse $349 billion in forgivable loans to small businesses hurt by the COVID-19 outbreak. However, the program’s funding limit and first-come, first-serve method for accepting loan applications put an immense strain on the financial institutions tasked with getting the money out the door. This resulted in many small businesses unable to get their applications submitted, approved, and funded before the program ran out of money after only two weeks. Where did the money go? The latest data from the Small Business Administration shows that the most populous states received the largest number of PPP loans. This is unsurprising, as states with higher populations tend to have a greater number of small businesses. One way to get a better picture of the impact of PPP loans on communities is to examine what percentage of a state’s small businesses received PPP loans (Figure 1). When viewed through this lens, the results are a quite striking - many of the coastal areas and larger markets missed out, while the rural, north-central states won out. Less than 4% of small businesses in California, Florida, and New York – three of the top five largest markets – were approved for PPP loans. While more than 12% of small businesses in North Dakota, Nebraska, and South Dakota received support. What happened? There are several factors that could have played a part in the uneven distribution of PPP loans. One explanation may be that some financial institutions in highly populated urban areas did not have the capacity to process such a large volume of loan applications in such a short amount of time. There may also be an urban-rural divide to how relationship banking occurs. Rural communities and small businesses with close-knit ties to area financial institutions may have had easier access to getting their PPP applications submitted and approved. In line with this, Figure 2 shows the top five and bottom five states in terms of financial institutions (banks and credit unions) per 100,000 people. The states with the highest prevalence of financial institutions were also the top states for PPP small business loan share. While the states with the lowest prevalence of financial institutions were the states with the smallest share. Another factor may have been the extent that shelter-in-place rules were being enforced. North Dakota, Nebraska, and South Dakota – the three top states for loan share – are part of the handful of states that still do not have statewide lockdowns. California, on the other hand, was the first state in the country to issue shelter-in-place measures. Why it matters The first round of stimulus through the Paycheck Protection Program provided relief for many small businesses around the country. However, the first-come, first-serve method of distributing loans may have resulted in some small business communities having easier access to the program than others. Insights as to why these differences occurred and why small businesses in the larger markets received a lower share of PPP loans can inform future stimulus efforts and ensure that recovery among the states is as even and broad as possible. Figure 1 Sources: Small Business Administration Paycheck Protection Program Report 4/16/2020, Census Bureau SUSB and NES Statistics. Author’s calculations. Figure 2 Sources: Experian data on financial institutions, Census Bureau population estimates. Author\'s calculations.
The response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) health crisis requires a brand-new mindset from businesses across the country. As part of our recently launched Q&A perspective series, Jim Bander, Market Lead of Analytics and Optimization and Kathleen Peters, Senior Vice President of Fraud and Identity, provided insight into how businesses can work to mitigate fraud and portfolio risk. Q: How can financial institutions mitigate fraud risk while monitoring portfolios? JB: The most important shift in portfolio monitoring is the view of the customer, because it’s very different during times of crisis than it is during expansionary periods. Financial institutions need to take a holistic view of their customers and use additional credit dimensions to understand consumers’ reactions to stress. While many businesses were preparing for a recession, the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus has already surpassed the stress-testing that most businesses performed. To help mitigate the increased risk, businesses need to understand how their stress testing was performed in the past and run new stress tests to understand how financially sound their institution is. KP: Most businesses—and particularly financial institutions—have suspended or relaxed many of their usual risk mitigation tools and strategies, in an effort to help support customers during this time of uncertainty. Many financial institutions are offering debt and late fee forgiveness, credit extensions, and more to help consumers bridge the financial gaps caused by the economic downturn. Unfortunately, the same actions that help consumers can hamstring fraud prevention efforts because they impact the usual risk indicators. To weather this storm, financial institutions need to pivot from standard risk mitigation strategies to more targeted fraud and identity strategies. Q: How can financial institutions’ exposure to risk be managed? JB: Financial institutions are trying to extend as much credit as is reasonably possible—per government guidelines—but when the first stage of this crisis passes, they need to be prepared to deal with the consequences. Specifically, which borrowers will actually repay their loans. Financial institutions should monitor consumer health and use proactive outreach to offer assistance while keeping a finger on the pulse of their customers’ financial health. For the foreseeable future, the focus will be on extending credit, not collecting on debt, but now is the time to start preparing for the economic aftermath. Consumer health monitoring is key, and it must include a strategy to differentiate credit abusers and other fraudsters from overall good consumers who are just financially stressed. KP: As financial institutions work to get all of their customers set up with online and mobile banking and account access, there’s an influx of new requests that all require consumer authentication, device identification, and sometimes even underwriting. All of this puts pressure on already strained resources which means increased fraud risk. To manage this risk, businesses need to balance customer experience—particularly minimizing friction—with vigilance against fraudsters and reputational risk. It will require a robust and flexible fraud strategy that utilizes automated tools as much as possible to free up personnel to follow up on the riskiest users and transactions. Experian is closely monitoring the updates around the coronavirus outbreak and its widespread impact on both consumers and businesses. We will continue to share industry-leading insights to help financial institutions manage their portfolios and protect against losses. Learn more About Our Experts: [avatar user=\"jim.bander\" /] Jim Bander, Market Lead, Analytics and Optimization, Experian Decision Analytics, North America Jim joined Experian in April 2018 and is responsible for solutions and value propositions applying analytics for financial institutions and other Experian business-to-business clients throughout North America. He has over 20 years of analytics, software, engineering and risk management experience across a variety of industries and disciplines. Jim has applied decision science to many industries, including banking, transportation and the public sector. [avatar user=\"kathleen.peters\" /] Kathleen Peters, Vice President, Fraud and Identity, Experian Decision Analytics, North America Kathleen joined Experian in 2013 to lead business development and international sales for the recently acquired 41st Parameter business in San Jose, Calif. She went on to lead product management for Experian’s fraud and identity group within the global Decision Analytics organization, launching Experian’s CrossCore® platform in 2016, a groundbreaking and award-winning new offering for the fraud and identity market. The last two years, Kathleen has been named a “Top 100 Influencer in Identity” by One World Identity (OWI), an exclusive list that annually recognizes influencers and leaders from across the globe, showcasing a who’s who of people to know in the identity space.
With new legislation, including the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act impacting how data furnishers will report accounts, and government relief programs offering payment flexibility, data reporting under the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak can be complicated. Especially when it comes to small businesses, many of which are facing sharp declines in consumer demand and an increased need for capital. As part of our recently launched Q&A perspective series, Greg Carmean, Experian’s Director of Product Management and Matt Shubert, Director of Data Science and Modelling, provided insight on how data furnishers can help support small businesses amidst the pandemic while complying with recent regulations. Check out what they had to say: Q: How can data reporters best respond to the COVID-19 global pandemic? GC: Data reporters should make every effort to continue reporting their trade experiences, as losing visibility into account performance could lead to unintended consequences. For small businesses that have been negatively affected by the pandemic, we advise that when providing forbearance, deferrals be reported as “current”, meaning they should not adversely impact the credit scores of those small business accounts. We also recommend that our data reporters stay in close contact with their legal counsel to ensure they follow CARES Act guidelines. Q: How can financial institutions help small businesses during this time? GC: The most critical thing financial institutions can do is ensure that small businesses continue to have access to the capital they need. Financial institutions can help small businesses through deferral of payments on existing loans for businesses that have been most heavily impacted by the COVID-19 crisis. Small Business Administration (SBA) lenders can also help small businesses take advantage of government relief programs, like the Payment Protection Program (PPP), available through the CARES Act that provides forgiveness on up to 75% of payroll expenses and 25% of other qualifying expenses. Q: How do financial institutions maintain data accuracy while also protecting consumers and small businesses who may be undergoing financial stress at this time? GC: Following bureau recommendations regarding data reporting will be critical to ensure that businesses are being treated fairly and that the tools lenders depend on continue to provide value. The COVID-19 crisis also provides a great opportunity for lenders to educate their small business customers on their business credit. Experian has made free business credit reports available to every business across the country to help small business owners ensure the information lenders are using in their credit decisioning is up-to-date and accurate. Q: What is the smartest next play for financial institutions? GC: Experian has several resources that lenders can leverage, including Experian’s COVID-19 Business Risk Index which identifies the industries and geographies that have been most impacted by the COVID crisis. We also have scores and alerts that can help financial institutions gain greater insights into how the pandemic may impact their portfolios, especially for accounts with the greatest immediate exposure and need. MS: To help small businesses weather the storm, financial institutions should make it simple and efficient for them to access the loans and credit they need to survive. With cash flow to help bridge the gap or resume normal operations, small businesses can be more effective in their recovery processes and more easily comply with new legislation. Finances offer the support needed to augment currently reduced cash flows and provide the stability needed to be successful when a return to a more normal business environment occurs. At Experian, we’re closely monitoring the updates around the coronavirus outbreak and its widespread impact on both consumers and businesses. We will continue to share industry-leading insights to help data furnishers navigate and successfully respond to the current environment. Learn more About Our Experts Greg Carmean, Director of Product Management, Experian Business Information Services, North America Greg has over 20 years of experience in the information industry specializing in commercial risk management services. In his current role, he is responsible for managing multiple product initiatives including Experian’s Small Business Financial Exchange (SBFE), domestic and international commercial reports and Corporate Linkage. Recently, he managed the development and launch of Experian’s Global Data Network product line, a commercial data environment that provides a single source of up to date international credit and firmographic information from Experian commercial bureaus and Tier 1 partners across the globe. Matt Shubert, Director of Data Science and Modelling, Experian Data Analytics, North America Matt leads Experian’s Commercial Data Sciences Team which consists of a combination of data scientists, data engineers and statistical model developers. The Commercial Data Science Team is responsible for the development of attributes and models in support of Experian’s BIS business unit. Matt’s 15+ years of experience leading data science and model development efforts within some of the largest global financial institutions gives our clients access to a wealth of knowledge to discover the hidden ROI within their own data.
In the face of severe financial stress, such as that brought about by an economic downturn, lenders seeking to reduce their credit risk exposure often resort to tactics executed at the portfolio level, such as raising credit score cut-offs for new loans or reducing credit limits on existing accounts. What if lenders could tune their portfolio throughout economic cycles so they don’t have to rely on abrupt measures when faced with current or future economic disruptions? Now they can. The impact of economic downturns on financial institutions Historically, economic hardships have directly impacted loan performance due to differences in demand, supply or a combination of both. For example, let’s explore the Great Recession of 2008, which challenged financial institutions with credit losses, declines in the value of investments and reductions in new business revenues. Over the short term, the financial crisis of 2008 affected the lending market by causing financial institutions to lose money on mortgage defaults and credit to consumers and businesses to dry up. For the much longer term, loan growth at commercial banks decreased substantially and remained negative for almost four years after the financial crisis. Additionally, lending from banks to small businesses decreased by 18 percent between 2008-2011. And – it was no walk in the park for consumers. Already faced with a rise in unemployment and a decline in stock values, they suddenly found it harder to qualify for an extension of credit, as lenders tightened their standards for both businesses and consumers. Are you prepared to navigate and successfully respond to the current environment? Those who prove adaptable to harsh economic conditions will be the ones most poised to lead when the economy picks up again. Introducing the FICO® Resilience Index The FICO® Resilience Index provides an additional way to evaluate the quality of portfolios at any point in an economic cycle. This allows financial institutions to discover and manage potential latent risk within groups of consumers bearing similar FICO® Scores, without cutting off access to credit for resilient consumers. By incorporating the FICO® Resilience Index into your lending strategies, you can gain deeper insight into consumer sensitivity for more precise credit decisioning. What are the benefits? The FICO® Resilience Index is designed to assess consumers with respect to their resilience or sensitivity to an economic downturn and provides insight into which consumers are more likely to default during periods of economic stress. It can be used by lenders as another input in credit decisions and account strategies across the credit lifecycle and can be delivered with a credit file, along with the FICO® Score. No matter what factors lead to an economic correction, downturns can result in unexpected stressors, affecting consumers’ ability or willingness to repay. The FICO® Resilience Index can easily be added to your current FICO® Score processes to become a key part of your resilience-building strategies. Learn more
Learn More Image
