Uncategorized
The November release of the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices, a comprehensive measure of changes in consumer credit defaults, showed that most loan types saw an increase in default rates in October. After nine consecutive months of declining default rates, the national composite1 increased to 1.55 percent in October from the 1.46 percent September rate. The first mortgage default rate increased from 1.36 percent in September to 1.47 percent in October. Bankcard default rates posted the lowest post recession rate in October (3.68 percent), compared with 3.70 percent in September.
Loans to customers in the nonprime, subprime and deep-subprime credit risk tiers accounted for more than one in four new vehicle loans in Q2 2012. With 25.41 percent of all new vehicle loans opened by customers in the nonprime, subprime and deep-subprime credit risk tiers, loans for this group were up 14 percent when compared with Q2 2011. Listen to our recent Webinar on Q2 2012 automotive credit trends Source: Experian Automotive's quarterly credit trend analysis
Mortgage delinquencies continued to reach multi-year lows with the delinquency rate for those 60 plus days past due falling to 4.68 percent in Q2 2012 compared to 5.04 percent for the same quarter last year. The decline may be the result of lenders further tightening their criteria, as the average VantageScore® credit score for consumers who opened a new mortgage trade in Q1 2012 was seven points higher when compared to the same quarter in 2011 - 878 versus 871. Sign up now for a detailed overview of consumer credit trends from the Q2 2012 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports and an in-depth look at the current state of the U.S. real estate market. Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports. VantageScore® is owned by VantageScore Solutions, LLC.
With mortgage interest rates at historic lows, the risk of attrition and its impact on ongoing revenue has become a paramount concern for credit unions. By implementing an automated trigger program as part of its member retention efforts, one credit union was able to improve retention rates and grow its portfolio – achieving a return on investment of 788 percent. Find out how implementing a daily triggers program can help you improve retention rates and alert you when members are looking for new credit. Source: Notification Services Case Study.
When it comes to short sales, a status of "account paid in full for less than full balance" or "settled" will still have a negative impact on a credit score because it means the debt was not paid in full as agreed. According to VantageScore® Solutions LLC, a mortgage loan settled through a short sale typically results in a change of 120 to 130 points to the VantageScore® credit score. A foreclosure generally causes a decline of 130 to 140 points. The impact of the short sale or foreclosure will vary since scores take into account the individual's overall credit history. VantageScore® is owned by VantageScore Solutions, LLC. Register now for a detailed overview of consumer credit trends from the Q2 2012 Market Intelligence Reports. Also during this event, we'll take an in-depth look at understanding the current state of the U.S. real estate market. Source: The Ask Experian team advice blog.
Total balances of automotive loan portfolios rose for all types of lending organizations in Q2 2012, reaching $682 billion, compared with $646 billion in Q2 2011. Despite this strong growth, overall loan balances still lag behind prerecession levels. In Q2 2007, outstanding loan balances reached $701 billion. The average 30 and 60 day delinquency rate fell slightly year over year across all types of lending organizations, including banks, captive finance, finance companies and credit unions. Sign up for our Sept. 6th Webinar for more information on Q2 2012 automotive credit trends. Source: Experian press release dated — Aug 8, 2012: Loan delinquencies and automotive repossessions drop in Q2, according to Experian Automotive.
Some borrowers who are deemed subprime by traditional credit scoring criteria are actually quite creditworthy and are identified as prime or near-prime consumers when using the more inclusive VantageScore® credit score. Based on a VantageScore® Solutions' study of infrequent users of credit, 15.5 percent were found to have either prime or super-prime risk. In addition, among new entrants to the credit scene — including students who recently graduated, immigrants and recently divorced consumers — 26.5 percent were found to have either prime or super-prime risk profiles. Learn more about VantageScore® Solutions, identified as a Preferred Partner by the National Association of Federal Credit Unions (NAFCU). Source: VantageScore Solutions summer 2012 newsletter, The Score VantageScore® is owned by VantageScore Solutions, LLC.
The FDIC has proposed a new rule that will change the way large lenders define and calculate risk for their FDIC Deposit Insurance Assessment. The revised definitions in the proposed rule rely on "probability of default" and eliminate all references to the traditional three-digit credit score used to calculate subprime exposure -- changing the way large banks calculate their FDIC assessments. This new ruling will allow lenders to uniformly assess risk in their portfolios--regardless of the scoring models they use. View a recent webinar to hear from a panel of experts on the "The New Subprime Definition: Who is subprime now?" Source: FDIC Proposed Ruling Announcement
a.wpbutton:hover {text-decoration: none !important;} Please select from the below list of recent Experian white papers to gain more insight into topics relevant to your business needs and goals. Converting Information to Intelligence - Current Trends in Mitigating Small-Business Risk Through Analytics Download Now As former Chrysler CEO Lee Iacocca put it, “Even a correct decision is wrong when taken too late.” Portfolio managers who oversee small-business risks know this well. They realize it when they make a decision about approving or rejecting a loan request and recognize later the correct decision would have been clearer if they could have weighed additional data and used improved analytics. This white paper presents some of these latest trends affecting the small-business lending landscape. Specifically, it illuminates how companies are using the new robust data sources and analytic tools – from consortium data to rapid model customization – to maximize their interactions with small-business clients with greater accuracy. Creating Value In Challenging Times: An Innovative Approach To Basel III Compliance Download Now In this paper, we will provide an introduction to Basel III regulation and discuss some of its impact on banks and the banking system. We also will present a real business case showing how organizations turn these regulatory challenges into business opportunities by optimizing their credit strategies. Turning the Tide - Managing Troubled Portfolios Download Now The economy may be recovering and the credit picture improving, but lending institutions still find themselves coping with some troubled portfolios. Plus, they always need to be prepared to identify high-risk accounts. What they can discover is that turning around a challenged loan portfolio requires taking just a few basic steps. This white paper explores how in Arizona Federal Credit Union reversed its misfortunes to emerge from the economic crisis prosperous and with $30 million in profits, illuminating what lenders can do to manage troubled portfolios and reverse poor performance. Get To Know Your Customers: Account Linking and Advanced Customer Management For Utility Providers Download Now In this paper, we will explore the practice of customer management and key capabilities to improve effectiveness in a complex business environment. It will specifically look at opportunities within the utilities marketplace for account linking and deploying customer-level decisions to the business to help drive portfolio performance retain and grow profitability and strengthen customer relationships. State of the U.S. Credit Markets - At Last, Signs of Real Recovery Download Now The economy’s recovery from the Great Recession may have started slowly, but it is accelerating – and it’s genuine. Economic indicators tell the story of improving business prospects. As the recovery begins to take shape, many consumers are now turning the corner with it and will present as viable candidates to grow your portfolio profitably. It’s difficult to find any solace in a recession, yet it can serve as an opportunity. 2012 will be the year for lenders to return to pre-recession strategies if they are to grow significantly. This economic rebound is real, and savvy lenders – just like those marathon runners and Tour de France bicyclists – recognize that it’s in the uphill stage of the race that the lead changes. Home Equity Indicators with New Credit Data Methods for Improved Mortgage Risk Analytics This whitepaper describes new improvements in local housing market indicators and analytics derived from local-area credit and local real estate information. In the run up to the U.S. housing downturn and financial crisis, perhaps the greatest single risk management shortfall was poorly predicted home prices and borrower home equity. Understanding Automotive Loan Charge-off Patterns Can Help Mitigate Lender Risk Loan delinquency rates are one of the most important statistics to track in the automotive finance industry. If consumers are not repaying loans on time, it puts billions of dollars at risk. When high dollar volumes are at risk, it is a negative for everyone in the lending world, including consumers, automotive retailers and lenders themselves. While conditions have improved considerably the past few years, lenders still need to remain vigilant about where delinquencies are most likely to occur. It’s an unavoidable fact that some loans will have to be charged off. Understanding where and how these charge offs occur provides important learning for the industry. Experian Automotive has found several clear patterns that can help lenders better understand the root cause of loan delinquencies. Strategic Customer Management for Business Banking Portfolios Download Now This white paper explores business banking customer management and the benefits that can be realized from introducing a strategic approach. It will look at the features of a leading-edge approach to business banking customer management and provide practical insights on key areas. Universe Expansion - Growth Strategies in the Evolving Consumer Market Download Now As the economy gains strength, lenders are engaging in an increasingly fierce competition to entice the best candidates to their portfolios and to grow their lending business. In waging this battle, however, many lenders are concentrating on the super-prime and prime consumer segments. Prospecting strategies currently in use often do not identify the right subpopulations within the near-prime segment. Specifically, there are prospects within the near-prime segment that exhibit low bad rates compared with the broader near-prime consumer base. It is imperative that lenders redefine their targeting/underwriting strategies to prospect and acquire in the near prime space. A variety of prospecting strategies are now available that compliment and expand on a lender’s current growth initiatives – now is the time to ensure that optimal strategies are in place and that opportunities within near-prime are not overlooked. Interested in more thought leadership? Visit our Business Resources page on Experian.com
Mortgage origination volumes increased to $427 billion in Q4 2011 – a 31 percent quarterly gain. However, overall 2011 originations of $1.35 trillion were 16 percent lower than 2010 volumes. Sign up to attend our upcoming Webinar, which will focus on current credit trends and feature a closer look at the overleveraged consumer. Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports.
Outstanding automotive loan balances were at $708 billion in Q1 2012 – a figure last seen two years ago. Banks and captive auto lenders hold two-thirds of the outstanding balances (34 percent and 33 percent respectively), while credit unions hold 21 percent. Listen to the latest automotive credit trends by attending our upcoming webinar. Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports.
After increasing for the first time in nearly two years, the 30 and 60 days past due (DPD) mortgage delinquencies as a percentage of balances returned to their downward trend, with Q4 delinquency rates of 2.18 percent and 1.06 percent, respectively. This represents a decline of 3.5 percent for the 30 DPD category and a 2.8 percent decline for 60 DPD. Listen to our recorded Webinar for a detailed look at the current state of mortgage strategic default and an update on consumer credit trends from the Q4 2011 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports. Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports.
A recent study compiled by VantageScore® Solutions found that default risk associated with mortgage originations has improved. The likelihood that a borrower will become 90 or more days past due after a mortgage has been originated was 2.5 percent in 2011, far lower than in 2009, where it hovered at 7 percent. Get your VantageScore® credit score. Source: View the complete VantageScore Solutions 2011 Annual Validation study. VantageScore® is owned by VantageScore Solutions, LLC.
A recent Experian study showed that strategic defaults accounted for 23 percent of all mortgage defaults 60 days past due or greater in Q4 2011. Other findings included the following: Prime and super-prime consumers (VantageScore® credit score A and B tiers) have the highest incidence of strategic default Average outstanding mortgage balances for strategic defaulters are nearly 36 percent higher than their nonstrategic default counterparts. Listen to our recorded Webinar for a detailed look at the current state of strategic default in mortgage and an update on consumer credit trends. Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports and strategic default studies. VantageScore® is owned by VantageScore Solutions, LLC.
With interest rates at their lowest level since 2008 and an increasingly competitive market, automotive lenders are increasing their willingness to make loans between six and seven years long: Auto loans of 73 to 84 months accounted for 14.1 percent of all new vehicle loans, up 47 percent from Q4 2010 Auto loans of 73 to 84 months accounted for 9.04 percent of all used vehicle loans, up 41 percent from Q4 2010 View our recent Webinar on the Q4 2011 state of the automotive market. Source: Experian Automotive's quarterly credit trend analysis. Download the quarterly studies and white paper.