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It seems like artificial intelligence (AI) has been scaring the general public for years – think Terminator and SkyNet. It’s been a topic that’s all the more confounding and downright worrisome to financial institutions. But for the 30% of financial institutions that have successfully deployed AI into their operations, according to Deloitte, the results have been anything but intimidating. Not only are they seeing improved performance but also a more enhanced, positive customer experience and ultimately strong financial returns. For the 70% of financial institutions who haven’t started, are just beginning their journey or are in the middle of implementing AI into their operations, the task can be daunting. AI, machine learning, deep learning, neural networks—what do they all mean? How do they apply to you and how can they be useful to your business? It’s important to demystify the technology and explain how it can present opportunities to the financial industry as a whole. While AI seems to have only crept into mainstream culture and business vernacular in the last decade, it was first coined by John McCarthy in 1956. A researcher at Dartmouth, McCarthy thought that any aspect of learning or intelligence could be taught to a machine. Broadly, AI can be defined as a machine’s ability to perform cognitive functions we associate with humans, i.e. interacting with an environment, perceiving, learning and solving problems. Machine learning vs. AI Machine learning is not the same thing as AI. Machine learning is the application of systems or algorithms to AI to complete various tasks or solve problems. Machine learning algorithms can process data inputs and new experiences to detect patterns and learn how to make the best predictions and recommendations based on that learning, without explicit programming or directives. Moreover, the algorithms can take that learning and adapt and evolve responses and recommendations based on new inputs to improve performance over time. These algorithms provide organizations with a more efficient path to leveraging advanced analytics. Descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive analytics vary in complexity, sophistication, and their resulting capability. In simplistic terms, descriptive algorithms describe what happened, predictive algorithms anticipate what will happen, and prescriptive algorithms can provide recommendations on what to do based on set goals. The last two are the focus of machine learning initiatives used today. Machine learning components - supervised, unsupervised and reinforcement learning Machine learning can be broken down further into three main categories, in order of complexity: supervised, unsupervised and reinforcement learning. As the name might suggest, supervised learning involves human interaction, where data is loaded and defined and the relationship to inputs and outputs is defined. The algorithm is trained to find the relationship of the input data to the output variable. Once it delivers accurately, training is complete, and the algorithm is then applied to new data. In financial services, supervised learning algorithms have a litany of uses, from predicting likelihood of loan repayment to detecting customer churn. With unsupervised learning, there is no human engagement or defined output variable. The algorithm takes the input data and structures it by grouping it based on similar characteristics or behaviors, without a defined output variable. Unsupervised learning models (like K-means and hierarchical clustering) can be used to better segment or group customers by common characteristics, i.e. age, annual income or card loyalty program. Reinforcement learning allows the algorithm more autonomy in the environment. The algorithm learns to perform a task, i.e. optimizing a credit portfolio strategy, by trying to maximize available rewards. It makes decisions and receives a reward if those actions bring the machine closer to achieving the total available rewards, i.e. the highest acquisition rate in a customer category. Over time, the algorithm optimizes itself by correcting actions for the best outcomes. Even more sophisticated, deep learning is a category of machine learning that involves much more complex architecture where software-based calculators (called neurons) are layered together in a network, called a neural network. This framework allows for much broader, complex data ingestion where each layer of the neural network can learn progressively more complex elements of the data. Object classification is a classic example, where the machine ‘learns’ what a duck looks like and then is able to automatically identify and group images of ducks. As you might imagine, deep learning models have proved to be much more efficient and accurate at facial and voice recognition than traditional machine learning methods. Whether your financial institution is already seeing the returns for its AI transformation or is one of the 61% of companies investing in this data initiative in 2019, having a clear picture of what is available and how it can impact your business is imperative. How do you see AI and machine learning impacting your customer acquisition, underwriting and overall customer experience?

Last month, Kenneth Blanco, Director of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, warned that cybercriminals are stealing data from fintech platforms to create synthetic identities and commit fraud. These actions, in turn, are alleged to be responsible for exploiting fintech platforms’ integration with other financial institutions, putting banks and consumers at risk. According to Blanco, “by using stolen data to create fraudulent accounts on fintech platforms, cybercriminals can exploit the platforms’ integration with various financial services to initiate seemingly legitimate financial activity while creating a degree of separation from traditional fraud detection efforts.” Fintech executives were quick to respond, and while agreeing that synthetic IDs are a problem, they pushed back on the notion that cybercriminals specifically target fintech platforms. Innovation and technology have indeed opened new doors of possibility for financial institutions, however, the question remains as to whether it has also created an opportunity for criminals to implement more sophisticated fraud strategies. Currently, there appears to be little evidence pointing to an acute vulnerability of fintech firms, but one thing can be said for certain: synthetic ID fraud is the fastest-growing financial crime in the United States. Perhaps, in part, because it can be difficult to detect. Synthetic ID is a type of fraud carried out by criminals that have created fictitious identities. Truly savvy fraudsters can make these identities nearly indistinguishable from real ones. According to Kathleen Peters, Experian’s SVP, Head of Fraud and Identity, it typically takes fraudsters 12 to 18 months to create and nurture a synthetic identity before it’s ready to “bust out” – the act of building a credit history with the intent of maxing out all available credit and eventually disappearing. These types of fraud attacks are concerning to any company’s bottom line. Experian’s 2019 Global Fraud and Identity Report further details the financial impact of fraud, noting that 55% of businesses globally reported an increase in fraud-related losses over the past 12 months. Given the significant risk factor, organizations across the board need to make meaningful investments in fraud prevention strategies. In many circumstances, the pace of fraud is so fast that by the time organizations implement solutions, the shelf life may already be old. To stay ahead of fraudsters, companies must be proactive about future-proofing their fraud strategies and toolkits. And the advantage that many fintech companies have is their aptitude for being nimble and propensity for early adoption. Experian can help too. Our Synthetic Fraud Risk Level Indicator helps both fintechs and traditional financial institutions in identifying applicants likely to be associated with a synthetic identity based on a complex set of relationships and account conditions over time. This indicator is now available in our credit report, allowing organizations to reduce exposure to identity fraud through early detection. To learn more about Experian’s Synthetic Fraud Risk Level Indicator click here, or visit experian.com/fintech.

It’s Halloween time – time for trick or treating, costume parties and monsters lurking in the background. But this year, the monsters aren’t just in the background. They’re in your portfolio.  This year, “Frankenstein” has another meaning. Much more ominous than the neighbor kid in the costume.   “Frankenstein IDs” refer to synthetic identities — a type of fraud carried out by criminals that have created fictitious identities. Just as Dr. Frankenstein’s monster was stitched together from parts, synthetic IDs are stitched together pieces of mismatched identities — some fake, some real, some even deceased.   It typically takes fraudsters 12 to 18 months to create and nurture a synthetic identity before it’s ready to "bust out" – the act of building a credit history with the intent of maxing out all available credit and eventually disappearing. That means fraudsters are investing money and time to build numerous tradelines, ensure these "fake" identities are in good credit standing, and ultimately steal the largest amount of money possible.   “Wait Master, it might be dangerous . . . you go, first.” — Igor   Synthetic identities are a notable challenge for many financial institutions and retail organizations. According to the recently released Federal Reserve Board White Paper, synthetic identity fraud accounts for roughly 20% of all credit losses, and cost U.S. businesses roughly $6 billion in 2016 with an estimated 41% growth over 2 years. 85-95% of applicants identified as potential synthetic are not even flagged by traditional fraud models.   The Social Security Administration recently announced plans for the electronic Consent Based Social Security Number Verification service – pilot program scheduled for June 2020. This service is designed to bring efficiency to the process for verifying Social Security numbers directly with the government agency. Once available, this verification could be an important tool in the fight against the elusive “Frankenstein” identity monster.   But with the Social Security Administration's pilot program not scheduled for launch until the middle of next year, how can financial institutions and other organizations bridge the gap and adequately prepare for a potential uptick in synthetic identity fraud attacks? It comes down to a multilayered approach that relies on advanced data, analytics, and technology — and focuses on identity.   Any significant progress in making synthetic identities easier to detect could cost fraudsters significant time and money.   Far too many financial institutions and other organizations depend solely on basic demographic information and snapshots in time to confirm the legitimacy of an identity. These organizations need to think beyond those capabilities. The real value of data in many cases lies between the data points. We have seen this with synthetic identity — where a seemingly legitimate identity only shows risk when we can analyze its connections and relationships to other individuals and characteristics.   In addition to our High Risk Fraud Score, we now have a Synthetic Fraud Risk Level Indicator available on credit profiles. These advanced detection capabilities are delivered via the simplicity of a straightforward indicator returned on the credit profile which lenders can use to trigger additional identity verification processes.   While there are programs and initiatives in the works to help financial institutions and other organizations combat synthetic identity fraud, it's important to keep in mind there's no silver bullet, or stake to the heart, to completely keep these Frankenstein IDs out.   Oh, and don’t forget… “It’s pronounced ‘Fronkensteen.’ ” — Dr. Frankenstein

The future is, factually speaking, uncertain. We don't know if we'll find a cure for cancer, the economic outlook, if we'll be living in an algorithmic world or if our work cubical mate will soon be replaced by a robot. While futurists can dish out some exciting and downright scary visions for the future of technology and science, there are no future facts. However, the uncertainty presents opportunity. Technology in today's world From the moment you wake up, to the moment you go back to sleep, technology is everywhere. The highly digital life we live and the development of our technological world have become the new normal. According to The International Telecommunication Union (ITU), almost 50% of the world's population uses the internet, leading to over 3.5 billion daily searches on Google and more than 570 new websites being launched each minute. And even more mind-boggling? Over 90% of the world's data has been created in just the last couple of years. With data growing faster than ever before, the future of technology is even more interesting than what is happening now. We're just at the beginning of a revolution that will touch every business and every life on this planet. By 2020, at least a third of all data will pass through the cloud, and within five years, there will be over 50 billion smart connected devices in the world. Keeping pace with digital transformation At the rate at which data and our ability to analyze it are growing, businesses of all sizes will be forced to modify how they operate. Businesses that digitally transform, will be able to offer customers a seamless and frictionless experience, and as a result, claim a greater share of profit in their sectors. Take, for example, the financial services industry - specifically banking. Whereas most banking used to be done at a local branch, recent reports show that 40% of Americans have not stepped through the door of a bank or credit union within the last six months, largely due to the rise of online and mobile banking. According to Citi's 2018 Mobile Banking Study, mobile banking is one of the top three most-used apps by Americans. Similarly, the Federal Reserve reported that more than half of U.S. adults with bank accounts have used a mobile app to access their accounts in the last year, presenting forward-looking banks with an incredible opportunity to increase the number of relationship touchpoints they have with their customers by introducing a wider array of banking products via mobile. Be part of the movement Rather than viewing digital disruption as worrisome and challenging, embrace the uncertainty and potential that advances in new technologies, data analytics and artificial intelligence will bring. The pressure to innovate amid technological progress poses an opportunity for us all to rethink the work we do and the way we do it. Are you ready? Learn more about powering your digital transformation in our latest eBook. Download eBook Are you an innovation junkie? Join us at Vision 2020 for future-facing sessions like:  -  Cloud and beyond - transforming technologies - ML and AI - real-world expandability and compliance

In today’s age of digital transformation, consumers have easy access to a variety of innovative financial products and services. From lending to payments to wealth management and more, there is no shortage in the breadth of financial products gaining popularity with consumers. But one market segment in particular – unsecured personal loans – has grown exceptionally fast. According to a recent Experian study, personal loan originations have increased 97% over the past four years, with fintech share rapidly increasing from 22.4% of total loans originated to 49.4%. Arguably, the rapid acceleration in personal loans is heavily driven by the rise in digital-first lending options, which have grown in popularity due to fintech challengers. Fintechs have earned their position in the market by leveraging data, advanced analytics and technology to disrupt existing financial models. Meanwhile, traditional financial institutions (FIs) have taken notice and are beginning to adopt some of the same methods and alternative credit approaches. With this evolution of technology fused with financial services, how are fintechs faring against traditional FIs? The below infographic uncovers industry trends and key metrics in unsecured personal installment loans: Still curious? Click here to download our latest eBook, which further uncovers emerging trends in personal loans through side-by-side comparisons of fintech and traditional FI market share, portfolio composition, customer profiles and more. Download now  

Earlier this year, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) issued a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) to implement the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act (FDCPA). The proposal, which will go into deliberation in September and won't be finalized until after that date at the earliest, would provide consumers with clear-cut protections against disturbance by debt collectors and straightforward options to address or dispute debts. Additionally, the NPRM would set strict limits on the number of calls debt collectors may place to reach consumers weekly, as well as clarify how collectors may communicate lawfully using technologies developed after the FDCPA’s passage in 1977. So, what does this mean for collectors? The compliance conundrum is ever present, especially in the debt collection industry. Debt collectors are expected to continuously adapt to changing regulations, forcing them to spend time, energy and resources on maintaining compliance. As the most recent onslaught of developments and proposed new rules have been pushed out to the financial community, compliance professionals are once again working to implement changes. According to the Federal Register, here are some key ways the new regulation would affect debt collection: Limited to seven calls: Debt collectors would be limited to attempting to reach out to consumers by phone about a specific debt no more than seven times per week. Ability to unsubscribe: Consumers who do not wish to be contacted via newer technologies, including voicemails, emails and text messages must be given the option to opt-out of future communications. Use of newer technologies: Newer communication technologies, such as emails and text messages, may be used in debt collection, with certain limitations to protect consumer privacy. Required disclosures: Debt collectors will be obligated to send consumers a disclosure with certain information about the debt and related consumer protections. Limited contact: Consumers will be able to limit ways debt collectors contact them, for example at a specific telephone number, while they are at work or during certain hours. Now that you know the details, how can you prepare? At Experian, we understand the importance of an effective collections strategy. Our debt collection solutions automate and moderate dialogues and negotiations between consumers and collectors, making it easier for collection agencies to reach consumers while staying compliant. Powerful locating solution: Locate past-due consumers more accurately, efficiently and effectively. TrueTraceSM adds value to each contact by increasing your right-party contact rate. Exclusive contact information: Mitigate your compliance risk with a seamless and unparalleled solution. With Phone Number IDTM, you can identify who a phone is registered to, the phone type, carrier and the activation date. If you aren’t ready for the new CFPB regulation, what are you waiting for? Learn more Note: Click here for an update on the CFPB's proposal.

It's been over 10 years since the start of the Great Recession. However, its widespread effects are still felt today. While the country has rebounded in many ways, its economic damage continues to influence consumers. Discover the Great Recession’s impact across generations: Americans of all ages have felt the effects of the Great Recession, making it imperative to begin recession proofing and better prepare for the next economic downturn. There are several steps your organization can take to become recession resistant and help your customers overcome personal financial difficulties. Are you ready should the next recession hit? Get started today

  You can do everything you can to prepare for the unexpected. But similar to how any first-time parent feels… you might need some help. Call in the grandparents! Experian has extensive expertise and has been around for a long time in the industry, but unlike your traditional grandparents, Experian continuously innovates, researches trends, and validates best practices in fraud and identity verification. That’s why we explored two prominent fraud reports, Javelin’s 2019 Identity Fraud Study: Fraudsters Seek New Targets and Victims Bear the Brunt and Experian’s 2019 Global Identity and Fraud Report — Consumer trust: Building meaningful relationships online, to help you identify and respond to new trends surrounding fraud. What we found – and what you need to know – is there are trends, technology and tactics that can help and hinder your fraud-prevention efforts. Consider the many digital channels available today. A full 91 percent of consumers transacted online in 2018. This presents a great opportunity for businesses to serve and develop relationships with customers. It also presents a great opportunity for fraudsters as well – as almost half of consumers have experienced a fraudulent online event. Since the threat of fraud is not impacting customers’ willingness to transact online, businesses are held responsible for adapting and evolving to not only protect their customers, but to secure their bottom line. This becomes increasingly important as fraudsters continue to target and expose vulnerabilities across inexperienced lines of businesses. Or, how about passwords. Research has shown that both businesses and consumers have greater confidence in biometrics, but neither is ready to stop using passwords. The continued reliance on traditional authentication methods is a delicate balance between security, trust and convenience. Passwords provide both authentication and consumer confidence in the online experience. It also adds friction to the user experience – and sometimes aggravation when passwords are forgotten. Advanced methods, like physical and behavioral biometrics and device intelligence, are gaining user confidence by both businesses and consumers. But a completely frictionless authentication experience can leave consumers doubting the safeness of their transaction. As you respond and adapt to our ever-evolving world, we encourage you to build and strengthen a trusted relationship with your customers through transparency. Consumers know that businesses are collection data about them. When a business is transparent about the use of that data, digital trust and consumer confidence soars. Through a stronger relationship, customers are more willing to accept friction and need fewer signs of security. Learn more about these and other trends, technology and tactics that can help and hinder your authentication efforts in our new E-book, Upcoming fraud trends and how to combat them.

Alex Lintner, Group President at Experian, recently had the chance to sit down with Peter Renton, creator of the Lend Academy Podcast, to discuss alternative credit data,1 UltraFICO, Experian Boost and expanding the credit universe. Lintner spoke about why Experian is determined to be the leader in bringing alternative credit data to the forefront of the lending marketplace to drive greater access to credit for consumers. “To move the tens of millions of “invisible” or “thin file” consumers into the financial mainstream will take innovation, and alternative data is one of the ways which we can do that,” said Lintner. Many U.S. consumers do not have a credit history or enough record of borrowing to establish a credit score, making it difficult for them to obtain credit from mainstream financial institutions. To ease access to credit for these consumers, financial institutions have sought ways to both extend and improve the methods by which they evaluate borrowers’ risk. By leveraging machine learning and alternative data products, like Experian BoostTM, lenders can get a more complete view into a consumer’s creditworthiness, allowing them to make better decisions and consumers to more easily access financial opportunities. Highlights include: The impact of Experian Boost on consumers’ credit scores Experian’s take on the state of the American consumer today Leveraging machine learning in the development of credit scores Expanding the marketable universe Listen now Learn more about alternative credit data 1When we refer to "Alternative Credit Data," this refers to the use of alternative data and its appropriate use in consumer credit lending decisions, as regulated by the Fair Credit Reporting Act. Hence, the term "Expanded FCRA Data" may also apply in this instance and both can be used interchangeably.

Financial institutions preparing for the launch of the Financial Accounting Standard Board’s (FASB) new current expected credit loss model, or CECL, may have concerns when it comes to preparedness, implications and overall impact. Gavin Harding, Experian’s Senior Business Consultant and Jose Tagunicar, Director of Product Management, tackled some of the tough questions posed by the new accounting standard. Check out what they had to say: Q: How can financial institutions begin the CECL transition process? JT: To prepare for the CECL transition process, companies should conduct an operational readiness review, which includes: Analyzing your data for existing gaps. Determining important milestones and preparing for implementation with a detailed roadmap. Running different loss methods to compare results. Once losses are calculated, you’ll want to select the best methodology based on your portfolio. Q: What is required to comply with CECL? GH: Complying with CECL may require financial institutions to gather, store and calculate more data than before. To satisfy CECL requirements, financial institutions will need to focus on end-to-end management, determine estimation approaches that will produce reasonable and supportable forecasts and automate their technology and platforms. Additionally, well-documented CECL estimations will require integrated workflows and incremental governance. Q: What should organizations look for in a partner that assists in measuring expected credit losses under CECL? GH: It’s expected that many financial institutions will use third-party vendors to help them implement CECL. Third-party solutions can help institutions prepare for the organization and operation implications by developing an effective data strategy plan and quantifying the impact of various forecasted conditions. The right third-party partner will deliver an integrated framework that empowers clients to optimize their data, enhance their modeling expertise and ensure policies and procedures supporting model governance are regulatory compliant. Q: What is CECL’s impact on financial institutions? How does the impact for credit unions/smaller lenders differ (if at all)? GH: CECL will have a significant effect on financial institutions’ accounting, modeling and forecasting. It also heavily impacts their allowance for credit losses and financial statements. Financial institutions must educate their investors and shareholders about how CECL-driven disclosure and reporting changes could potentially alter their bottom line. CECL’s requirements entail data that most credit unions and smaller lenders haven’t been actively storing and saving, leaving them with historical data that may not have been recorded or will be inaccessible when it’s needed for a CECL calculation. Q: How can Experian help with CECL compliance? JT: At Experian, we have one simple goal in mind when it comes to CECL compliance: how can we make it easier for our clients? Our Ascend CECL ForecasterTM, in partnership with Oliver Wyman, allows our clients to create CECL forecasts in a fraction of the time it normally takes, using a simple, configurable application that accurately predicts expected losses. The Ascend CECL Forecaster enables you to: Fulfill data requirements: We don’t ask you to gather, prepare or submit any data. The application is comprised of Experian’s extensive historical data, delivered via the Ascend Technology PlatformTM, economic data from Oxford Economics, as well as the auto and home valuation data needed to generate CECL forecasts for each unsecured and secured lending product in your portfolio. Leverage innovative technology: The application uses advanced machine learning models built on 15 years of industry-leading credit data using high-quality Oliver Wyman loan level models. Simplify processes: One of the biggest challenges our clients face is the amount of time and analytical effort it takes to create one CECL forecast, much less several that can be compared for optimal results. With the Ascend CECL Forecaster, creating a forecast is a simple process that can be delivered quickly and accurately. Q: What are immediate next steps? JT: As mentioned, complying with CECL may require you to gather, store and calculate more data than before. Therefore, it’s important that companies act now to better prepare. Immediate next steps include: Establishing your loss forecast methodology: CECL will require a new methodology, making it essential to take advantage of advanced statistical techniques and third-party solutions. Making additional reserves available: It’s imperative to understand how CECL impacts both revenue and profit. According to some estimates, banks will need to increase their reserves by up to 50% to comply with CECL requirements. Preparing your board and investors: Make sure key stakeholders are aware of the potential costs and profit impacts that these changes will have on your bottom line. Speak with an expert

You’ve Got Mail! Probably a lot of it. Birthday cards from Mom, a graduation announcement from your third cousin’s kid whose name you can’t remember and a postcard from your dentist reminding you you’re overdue for a cleaning. Adding to your pile, are the nearly 850 pieces of unsolicited mail Americans receive annually, according to Reader’s Digest. Many of these are pre-approval offers or invitations to apply for credit cards or personal loans. While many of these offers are getting to the right mailbox, they’re hitting a changing consumer at the wrong time. The digital revolution, along with the proliferation and availability of technology, has empowered consumers. They now not only have access to an abundance of choices but also a litany of new tools and channels, which results in them making faster, sometimes subconscious, decisions. Three Months Too Late The need to consistently stay in front of customers and prospects with the right message at the right time has caused a shortening of campaign cycles across industries. However, for some financial institutions, the customer acquisition process can take up to 120 days! While this timeframe is extreme, customer prospecting can still take around 45-60 days for most financial institutions and includes: Bureau processing: Regularly takes 10-15 days depending on the number of data sources and each time they are requested from a bureau. Data aggregation: Typically takes anywhere from 20-30 days. Targeting and selection: Generally, takes two to five days. Processing and campaign deployment: Usually takes anywhere from three days, if the firm handles it internally, or up to 10 days if an outside company handles the mailing. A Better Way That means for many firms, the data their customer acquisition campaigns are based off is at least 60 days old. Often, they are now dealing with a completely different consumer. With new card originations up 20% year-over-year in 2019 alone, it’s likely they’ve moved on, perhaps to one of your competitors. It’s time financial institutions make the move to a more modern form of prospecting and targeting that leverages the power of cloud technology, machine learning and artificial intelligence to accelerate and improve the marketing process. Financial marketing systems of the future will allow for advanced segmentation and targeting, dynamic campaign design and immediate deployment all based on the freshest data (no more than 24-48 hours old). These systems will allow firms to do ongoing analytics and modeling so their campaign testing and learning results can immediately influence next cycle decisions. Your customers are changing, isn’t it time the way you market to them changes as well?

Be warned. I’m a Philadelphia sports fan, and even after 13 months, I still relish in the only Super Bowl victory I’ve ever known as a fan. Having spent more than two decades in fraud prevention, I find that Super Bowl LII is coalescing in my mind with fraud prevention and lessons in defense more and more. Let me explain: It’s fourth-down-and-goal from the one-yard line. With less than a minute on the clock in the first half, the Eagles lead, 15 to 12. The easy option is to kick the field goal, take the three points and come back with a six-point advantage. Instead of sending out the kicking squad, the Eagles offense stays on the field to go for a touchdown. Broadcaster Cris Collingsworth memorably says, “Are they really going to go for this? You have to take the three!” On the other side are the New England Patriots, winners of two of the last three Super Bowls. Love them or hate them, the Patriots under coach Bill Belichick are more likely than any team in league history to prevent the Eagles from scoring at this moment. After the offense sets up, quarterback Nick Foles walks away from his position in the backfield to shout instructions to his offensive line. The Patriots are licking their chops. The play starts, and the ball is snapped — not to Foles as everyone expects, but to running back Corey Clement. Clement takes two steps to his left and tosses the ball the tight end Trey Burton, who’s running in the opposite direction. Meanwhile, Foles pauses as if he’s not part of the play, then trots lazily toward the end zone. Burton lobs a pass over pursuing defenders into Foles’ outstretched hands. This is the “Philly Special” — touchdown! Let me break this down: A third-string rookie running back takes the snap, makes a perfect toss — on the run — to an undrafted tight end. The tight end, who hasn’t thrown a pass in a game since college, then throws a touchdown pass to a backup quarterback who hasn’t caught a ball in any athletic event since he played basketball in high school. A play that has never been run by the Eagles, led by a coach who was criticized as the worst in pro football just a year before, is perfectly executed under the biggest spotlight against the most dominant team in NFL history. So what does this have to do with fraud? There’s currently an outbreak of breach-fueled credential stuffing. In the past couple of months, billions of usernames and passwords stolen in various high-profile data breaches have been compiled and made available to criminals in data sets described as “Collections 1 through 5.” Criminals acquire credentials in large numbers and attack websites by attempting to login with each set — effectively “stuffing” the server with login requests. Based on consumer propensity to reuse login credentials, the criminals succeed and get access to a customer account between 1 in 1,000 and 1 in 50 attempts. Using readily available tools, basic information like IP address and browser version are easy enough to alter/conceal making the attack harder to detect. Credential stuffing is like the Philly Special: Credential stuffing doesn’t require a group of elite all-stars. Like the Eagles’ players with relatively little experience executing their roles in the Philly Special, criminals with some computer skills, some initiative and the guts to try credential stuffing can score. The best-prepared defense isn’t always enough. The Patriots surely did their homework. They set up their defense to stop what they expected the Eagles to do based on extensive research. They knew the threats posed by every Eagle on the field. They knew what the Eagles’ coaches had done in similar circumstances throughout their careers. The defense wasn’t guessing. They were as prepared as they could have been. It’s the second point that worries me when I think of credential stuffing. Consumers reuse online credentials with alarming frequency, so a stolen set of credentials is likely to work across multiple organizations, possibly even yours. On top of that, traditional device recognition like cookies can’t identify and stop today’s sophisticated fraudsters. The best-prepared organizations feel great about their ability to stop the threats they’re aware of. Once they’ve seen a scheme, they make investments, improve their defenses, and position their players to recognize a risk and stop it. Sometimes past expertise won’t stop the play you can’t see coming.  

With scarce resources and limited experience available in the data science field, a majority of organizations are partnering with outside firms to fill gaps within their teams. A report compiled by Hexa Research found that the data analytics outsourcing market is set to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 30 percent between 2016 and 2024, reaching annual revenues of more than $6 billion. With data science becoming a necessity for success, outsourcing these specific skills will be the way of the future. When working with outside firms, you may be given the option between offshore and onshore resources. But how do you decide? Let’s discuss a few things you can consider. Offshore A well-known benefit of using offshore resources is lower cost. Offshore resources provide a larger pool of talent, which includes those who have specific analytical skills that are becoming rare in North America. By partnering with outside firms, you also expose your organization to global best practices by learning from external resources who have worked in different industries and locations. If a partner is investing research and development dollars into specific data science technology or new analytics innovations, you can use this knowledge and apply it to your business. With every benefit, however, there are challenges. Time zone differences and language barriers are things to consider if you’re working on a project that requires a large amount of collaboration with your existing team. Security issues need to be addressed differently when using offshore resources. Lastly, reputational risk also can be a concern for your organization. In certain cases, there may be a negative perception — both internally and externally — of moving jobs offshore, so it’s important to consider this before deciding. Onshore While offshore resources can save your organization money, there are many benefits to hiring onshore analytical resources. Many large projects require cross-functional collaboration. If collaboration is key to the projects you’re managing, onshore resources can more easily blend with your existing resources because of time zone similarities, reduced communication barriers and stronger cultural fit into your organization. In the financial services industry, there also are regulatory guidelines to consider. Offshore resources often may have the skills you’re looking for but don’t have a complete understanding of our regulatory landscape, which can lead to larger problems in the future. Hiring resources with this type of knowledge will help you conduct the analysis in a compliant manner and reduce your overall risk. All of the above Many of our clients — and we ourselves — find that an all-of-the-above approach is both effective and efficient. In certain situations, some timeline reductions can be made by having both onshore and offshore resources working on a project. Teams can include up to three different groups: Local resources who are closest to the client and the problem Resources in a nearby foreign country whose time zone overlaps with that of the local resources More analytical team members around the world whose tasks are accomplished somewhat more independently Carefully focusing on how the partnership works and how the external resources are managed is even more important than where they are located. Read 5 Secrets to Outsourcing Data Science Successfully to help you manage your relationship with your external partner. If your next project calls for experienced data scientists, Experian® can help. Our Analytics on DemandTM service provides senior-level analysts, either offshore  or onshore, who can help with analytical data science and modeling work for your organization.

Subprime originations hit the lowest overall share of the market seen in 11 years, but does that mean people are being locked out car ownership? Not necessarily, according to the Q3 State of the Automotive Finance Market report.To gain accurate insights from the vast amount of data available, it’s important to look at the entire picture that is created by the data. The decrease in subprime originations is due to many factors, one of which being that credit scores are increasing across the board (average is now 717 for new and 661 for used), which naturally shifts more consumers into the higher credit tiers. Loan origination market share are just one of the trends seen in this quarter’s report. Ultimately, examining the data can help inform lenders and help them make the right lending decisions. Exploring options for affordability While consumers analyze different possibilities to ensure their monthly payments are affordable, leasing is one of the more reasonable options in terms of monthly payments. In fact, the difference between the average new lease payment and new car payment usually averages more $100—and sometimes well over—which is a significant amount for the average American budget. In fact, leases of new vehicles are hovering around 30 percent, which is one of the factors that is aiding in new car sales. In turn, this then helps the used-vehicle market, as the high number of leases create a larger supply of quality use vehicles when they come off-lease and make their way back into the market. On-time payments continue to improve As consumer preferences continue to trend towards more expensive vehicles, such as crossovers, SUVs, and pickups, affordability will continue to be a topic of discussion. But consumers appear to be managing the higher prices, as in addition to the tactics mentioned above, 30- and 60-day delinquency rates declined since Q3 2017, from 2.39 percent to 2.23 percent and 0.76 percent to 0.72 percent, respectively. The automotive finance market is one where the old saying “no news is good news” continues to remain true. While there aren’t significant changes in the numbers quarter over quarter, this signals that the market is at a good place in its cycle. To learn more about the State of the Automotive Finance Market report, or to watch the webinar, click here.

Your model is only as good as your data, right? Actually, there are many considerations in developing a sound model, one of which is data. Yet if your data is bad or dirty or doesn’t represent the full population, can it be used? This is where sampling can help. When done right, sampling can lower your cost to obtain data needed for model development. When done well, sampling can turn a tainted and underrepresented data set into a sound and viable model development sample. First, define the population to which the model will be applied once it’s finalized and implemented. Determine what data is available and what population segments must be represented within the sampled data. The more variability in internal factors — such as changes in marketing campaigns, risk strategies and product launches — and external factors — such as economic conditions or competitor presence in the marketplace — the larger the sample size needed. A model developer often will need to sample over time to incorporate seasonal fluctuations in the development sample. The most robust samples are pulled from data that best represents the full population to which the model will be applied. It’s important to ensure your data sample includes customers or prospects declined by the prior model and strategy, as well as approved but nonactivated accounts. This ensures full representation of the population to which your model will be applied. Also, consider the number of predictors or independent variables that will be evaluated during model development, and increase your sample size accordingly. When it comes to spotting dirty or unacceptable data, the golden rule is know your data and know your target population. Spend time evaluating your intended population and group profiles across several important business metrics. Don’t underestimate the time needed to complete a thorough evaluation. Next, select the data from the population to aptly represent the population within the sampled data. Determine the best sampling methodology that will support the model development and business objectives. Sampling generates a smaller data set for use in model development, allowing the developer to build models more quickly. Reducing the data set’s size decreases the time needed for model computation and saves storage space without losing predictive performance. Once the data is selected, weights are applied so that each record appropriately represents the full population to which the model will be applied. Several traditional techniques can be used to sample data: Simple random sampling — Each record is chosen by chance, and each record in the population has an equal chance of being selected. Random sampling with replacement — Each record chosen by chance is included in the subsequent selection. Random sampling without replacement — Each record chosen by chance is removed from subsequent selections. Cluster sampling — Records from the population are sampled in groups, such as region, over different time periods. Stratified random sampling — This technique allows you to sample different segments of the population at different proportions. In some situations, stratified random sampling is helpful in selecting segments of the population that aren’t as prevalent as other segments but are equally vital within the model development sample. Learn more about how Experian Decision Analytics can help you with your custom model development needs.