The Demand for Electric Vehicles Boils Down to the Right Market

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With the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show set to kickoff later this week, it seemed fitting to explore how the shifting dynamics of the used vehicle market might impact dealers and buyers over the coming year. Shedding light on some of the registration and finance trends, as well as purchasing behaviors, can help dealers and manufacturers stay ahead of the curve. And just like that, the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report was born. As I was sifting through the data, one of the trends that stood out to me was the neck-and-neck race between Millennials and Gen X for supremacy in the used vehicle market. Five years ago, in 2019, Millennials were responsible for 33.3% of used retail registrations, followed by Gen X (29.5%) and Baby Boomers (26.8%). Since then, Baby Boomers have gradually fallen off, and Gen X continues to close the already minuscule gap. Through October 2024, Millennials accounted for 31.6%, while Gen X accounted for 30.4%. But trends can turn on a dime if the last year offers any indication. Over the last rolling 12 months (October 2023-October 2024), Gen X (31.4%) accounted for the majority of used vehicle registrations compared to Millennials (30.9%). Of course, the data is still close, and what 2025 holds is anyone’s guess, but understanding even the smallest changes in market share and consumer purchasing behaviors can help dealers and manufacturers adapt and navigate the road ahead. Although there are similarities between Millennials and Gen X, there are drastic differences, including motivations and preferences. Dealers and manufacturers should engage them on a generational level. What are they buying? Some of the data might not come as a surprise but it’s a good reminder that consumers are in different phases of life, meaning priorities change. Over the last rolling 12 months, Millennials over-indexed on used vans, accounting for more than one-third of registrations. Meanwhile, Gen X over-indexed on used trucks, making up nearly one-third of registrations, and Gen Z over-indexed on cars (accounting for 17.1% of used car registrations compared to 14.6% of overall used vehicle registrations). This isn’t surprising. Many Millennials have young families and may need extra space and functionality, while Gen Xers might prefer the versatility of the pickup truck—the ability to use it for work and personal use. On the other hand, Gen Zers are still early in their careers and gravitate towards the affordability and efficiency of smaller cars. Interestingly, although used electric vehicles only make up a small portion of used retail registrations (less than 1%), Millennials made up nearly 40% over the last rolling 12 months, followed by Gen X (32.2%) and Baby Boomers (15.8%). The market at a bird’s eye view Pulling back a bit on the used vehicle landscape, over the last rolling 12 months, CUVs/SUVs (38.9%) and cars (36.6%) accounted for the majority of used retail registrations. And nearly nine-in-ten used registrations were non-luxury vehicles. What’s more, ICE vehicles made up 88.5% of used retail registrations over the same period, while alternative-fuel vehicles (not including BEVs) made up 10.7% and electric vehicles made up 0.8%. At the finance level, we’re seeing the market shift ever so slightly. Since the beginning of the pandemic, one of the constant narratives in the industry has been the rising cost of owning a vehicle, both new and used. And while the average loan amount for a used non-luxury vehicle has gone up over the past five years, we’re seeing a gradual decline since 2022. In 2019, the average loan amount was $22,636 and spiked $29,983 in 2022. In 2024, the average loan amount reached $28,895. Much of the decline in average loan amounts can be attributed to the resurgence of new vehicle inventory, which has resulted in lower used values. With new leasing climbing over the past several quarters, we may see more late-model used inventory hit the market in the next few years, which will most certainly impact used financing. The used market moving forward Relying on historical data and trends can help dealers and manufacturers prepare and navigate the road ahead. Used vehicles will always fit the need for shoppers looking for their next vehicle; understanding some market trends will help ensure dealers and manufacturers can be at the forefront of helping those shoppers. For more information on the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report, visit Experian booth #627 at the NADA Show in New Orleans, January 23-26.

Electric vehicles (EVs) are the topic of conversation in the automotive industry, but we’re continuing to see another fuel type pick up speed. With consumer demand shifting and drivers exploring more fuel-efficient options, the automotive market is leaning back into hybrids. In fact, new retail hybrid registrations grew to 11.5% through Q3 2024, from 9.5% through Q3 2023, according to Experian’s Automotive Market Trends Report: Q3 2024. Meanwhile, EVs increased from 7.7% to 8.2% year-over-year and gasoline vehicles declined to 70.4% this year, from 72.7% last year. Despite EVs gaining notable attention over recent years, some consumers may be factoring in the benefits of opting for a hybrid, such as the convenience of driving a longer distance without facing challenges as charging stations remain limited. As more manufacturers adapt to consumer needs and roll out additional vehicles, data shows 9.1% of 2024 model year vehicles in operation were attributed to hybrids, while 6.2% of 2024 model years were EVs through Q3 2024. Having more models enter the market has shifted the hybrid and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) market share, with the Toyota Camry making up 12.5% of the market share this quarter, a notable increase from 2.4% last year. On the other hand, the Jeep Wrangler 4xe went from having 4.5% of market share last year to 2.4% through Q3 2024. With many consumers continuing to have some concerns around EVs such as range anxiety and charging times, they’re seeking a more practical solution for their daily driving needs. The balance of fuel options provides more convenience—making hybrids an appealing choice for those wanting an EV alternative. It’s important for manufacturers to stay ahead of the competitive market as it’s constantly evolving. Leveraging the most current data can provide solutions that address both feasibility and consumer preference. To learn more about vehicle market trends, view the full Automotive Market Trends Report: Q3 2024 presentation on demand.