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of the printing and typesetting industry. Lorem Ipsum has been the industry’s standard dummy text ever since the 1500s, when an unknown printer took a galley of type and scrambled it to make a type specimen book. It has survived not only five centuries, but also the leap into electronic typesetting, remaining essentially unchanged. It was popularised in the 1960s with the release of Letraset sheets containing Lorem Ipsum passages, and more recently with desktop publishing software like Aldus PageMaker including versions of Lorem Ipsum
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How can lenders ensure they’re making the most accurate and fair lending decisions? The answer lies in consistent model validations. What are model validations? Model validations are vital for effective lending and risk-based pricing programs. In addition to helping you determine which credit scoring model works best on your portfolio, the performance (odds) charts from validation results are often used to set score cutoffs and risk-based pricing tiers. Validations also provide the information you need to implement a new score into your decisioning process. Factors affecting model validations Understanding how well a score predicts behavior, such as payment delinquency or bankruptcy, enables you to make more confident lending decisions. Model performance and validation results can be impacted by several factors, including: Dynamic economic environment – Shifts in unemployment rates, interest rate hikes and other economic indicators can impact consumer behavior. Regulatory changes affecting consumers – For example, borrowers who benefited from a temporary student loan payment pause may face challenges as they resume payments. Scorecard degradation – A model that performed well several years ago may not perform as well under current conditions. When to perform model validations The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s Supervisory Guidance on Model Risk Management states model validations should be performed at least annually to help reduce risk. The validation process should be comprehensive and produce proper documentation. While some organizations perform their own validations, those with fewer resources and access to historical data may not be able to validate and meet the guidance recommendations. Regular validations support compliance and can also give you confidence that your lending strategies are built on solid, current data that drive better outcomes. Good model validation practices are critical if lenders are to continue to make data-driven decisions that promote fairness for consumers and financial soundness for the institution. Make better lending decisions If you’re a credit risk manager responsible for the models driving your lending policies, there are several things you can do to ensure that your organization continues to make fair and sound lending decisions: Assess your model inventory. Ensure you have comprehensive documentation showing when each model was developed and when it was last validated. Validate the scores you are using on your data, along with those you are considering, to compare how well each model performs and determine if you are using the most effective model for your needs. Produce validation documentation, including performance (odds) charts and key performance metrics, which can be shared with regulators. Utilize the performance charts produced from the validation to analyze bad rates/approval rates and adjust cutoff scores as needed. Explore alternative credit scoring models to potentially enhance your scoring process. As market conditions and regulations continue to evolve, model validations will remain an essential tool for staying competitive and making sound lending decisions. Ready to ensure your lending decisions are based on the latest data? Learn more about Experian’s flexible validation services and how we can support your ongoing success. Contact us today to schedule a consultation. Learn more
The advent of artificial intelligence (AI) is significantly transforming the landscape of real estate fraud, enabling criminals to execute complex schemes like deed theft with greater ease. A notable case involves Spelling Manor, a $137.5 million mansion in Los Angeles, where the owner alleges they are entangled in deed fraud. Scammers reportedly filed fraudulent documents that have prevented the owner from selling the estate, thwarting offers from buyers, including former Google CEO Eric Schmidt. Understanding deed/title fraud Deed fraud, also known as title or property fraud, occurs when someone illegally transfers ownership of a property without the owner’s knowledge or consent. Typically, fraudsters create fake documents or forge the owner’s signature on a deed to make it look like the property has been legally transferred to them. Once the title is in their name, they may try to sell or mortgage the property, leaving the original owner unaware until it’s too late. How deed fraud works Identify a target: Fraudsters often look for properties that appear vulnerable, such as vacant land, unoccupied homes, or properties owned by elderly individuals who may not check their records frequently. Forge documentation: Using fake IDs and forged signatures, scammers create documents that appear to show a legitimate transfer of ownership. With modern technology, these documents can look highly convincing. Record the fake deed: Fraudsters then file these documents with the local county clerk or recorder’s office. This officially changes the ownership records, making it seem as if the scammer is the legitimate owner. Exploit the ownership: Once listed as the owner, the fraudster may sell the property to an unsuspecting buyer, take out loans against it, or even rent it out. The impact on victims In the summer of 2024, Elvis Presley’s family got confronted to a forged deed scam. A fake firm, Naussany Investments, falsely claimed Lisa Marie Presley owed millions and used Graceland as collateral. They placed a foreclosure notice and attempted to auction the estate. Riley Keough filed a lawsuit, exposing the firm as fraudulent and halting the foreclosure through a judge’s injunction. Lisa Jeanine Findley, who forged documents and posed as firm employees, was arrested and charged with deed forgery fraud and identity theft. She faces up to 22 years in prison if convicted. The FBI's Internet Crime Complaint Center does not specifically monitor deed fraud. However, in 2023, it processed a total of 9,521 real estate-related complaints defined as the loss of funds from a real estate investment, resulting in more than $145 million in losses. Victims of deed fraud can face severe financial and legal issues. They may discover the fraud only when trying to sell, refinance, or even pay taxes on the property. Reversing deed fraud typically requires a costly and time-consuming legal process, as courts must determine that the transfer was fraudulent and restore the original owner’s rights. Prevention and safeguards There are several preventive measures and fraud prevention solutions that can be established to help mitigate the risks associated with deed/title fraud. These include: For lending institutions: Enhanced ID verification: Implement multi-factor identity checks at the loan approval stage. Regular portfolio audits: Conduct periodic audits to detect unusual property transfers and title changes in their loan portfolios. For title companies: AI-driven document verification tools: Use machine learning algorithms to identify inconsistencies in deed and ownership documents. Real-time fraud monitoring: Employ analytics to track suspicious behavior patterns, such as rapid ownership changes. Seller authentication: Require biometric or multi-step identity verification for anyone claiming ownership or initiating sales. For realtors: Training and awareness: Educate realtors on how to spot warning signs of fraudulent listings and seller impersonations. Pre-transaction verification: Collaborate with title companies to validate ownership early in the listing process. Acting with the right solution Mortgage fraud is a constant threat that demands ongoing vigilance and adaptability. As fraudsters evolve their tactics, the mortgage industry must stay one step ahead to safeguard homeowners and lenders alike. With concerns over deed/title-related fraud rising, it is vital to raise awareness, strengthen preventive measures, and foster collaboration to protect the integrity of the mortgage market. By staying informed and implementing robust safeguards, we can collectively combat and prevent mortgage fraud from disrupting the financial security of individuals and the industry. Experian mortgage powers advanced capabilities across the mortgage lifecycle by gaining market intelligence, enhancing customer experience to remove friction and tapping into industry leading data sources to gain a complete view of borrower behavior. Visit our website to see how these solutions can help your business prevent deed fraud. Learn more
In today's data-driven business landscape, leveraging advanced targeting techniques is crucial for effective consumer engagement, particularly in the financial services sector. Prescreen targeting solutions have evolved significantly, offering a competitive edge through more precise and impactful outreach strategies. The power of data analytics and predictive modeling At the heart of modern prescreen targeting solutions lies the integration of extensive data analytics and predictive modeling. These systems combine detailed consumer information, including purchasing behaviors and credit scores, with sophisticated algorithms to identify potential customers most likely to respond positively to specific promotional campaigns. This approach not only streamlines campaign efforts but also enhances the tactical effectiveness of each interaction. Direct mail: a proven channel for financial services In the competitive North American financial services market, direct mail has demonstrated distinct advantages as a targeting channel. Its tangible nature helps cut through digital noise, capturing consumer attention effectively. For credit products, direct mail typically achieves engagement rates of 0.2-2% for prime consumers and 1-3% for near-prime and subprime consumers[1]. Key advantages of prescreen targeting solutions Enhanced response rates Custom response models can significantly boost prospect response rates by targeting a well-defined, high-propensity audience. These models have the potential to improve average response rates of prescreen direct mail campaigns by 10-25%. Risk mitigation By focusing on well-defined, high-propensity audiences, prescreen targeting via direct mail aims to attract the right prospects, minimizing fraud and delinquency risks. This targeted approach can lead to substantial savings on underwriting costs. Improved customer engagement and retention Personalized direct mail strengthens customer relationships by making recipients feel valued, leading to higher engagement and loyalty – crucial factors for long-term business success. Regulatory compliance and security Prescreen solutions come equipped with compliance safeguards, simplifying adherence to industry regulations and consumer privacy standards. This is particularly critical in the highly regulated financial sector. The future of targeting and enhancement As markets continue to evolve, the strategic importance of precise and efficient marketing techniques will only grow. Financial institutions leveraging optimized prescreen targeting and enhancement solutions can gain a significant competitive advantage, achieving higher immediate returns and fostering long-term customer loyalty and brand strength. Future advancements in AI and machine learning are expected to further refine prescreen targeting capabilities, offering even more sophisticated tools for marketers to engage effectively with their target audiences. Ascend Intelligence Services™ Target Ascend Intelligence Services Target is a sophisticated prescreening solution that boosts direct mail response rates. It uses comprehensive trended and alternative data, capturing credit and behavior patterns to iterate through direct mail response models and mathematical optimization. This enhances the target strategy and maximizes campaign response, take-up rates, and ROI within business constraints. Visit our website to learn more [1] Experian Research, Data Science Team, July 2024
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With the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show set to kickoff later this week, it seemed fitting to explore how the shifting dynamics of the used vehicle market might impact dealers and buyers over the coming year. Shedding light on some of the registration and finance trends, as well as purchasing behaviors, can help dealers and manufacturers stay ahead of the curve. And just like that, the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report was born. As I was sifting through the data, one of the trends that stood out to me was the neck-and-neck race between Millennials and Gen X for supremacy in the used vehicle market. Five years ago, in 2019, Millennials were responsible for 33.3% of used retail registrations, followed by Gen X (29.5%) and Baby Boomers (26.8%). Since then, Baby Boomers have gradually fallen off, and Gen X continues to close the already minuscule gap. Through October 2024, Millennials accounted for 31.6%, while Gen X accounted for 30.4%. But trends can turn on a dime if the last year offers any indication. Over the last rolling 12 months (October 2023-October 2024), Gen X (31.4%) accounted for the majority of used vehicle registrations compared to Millennials (30.9%). Of course, the data is still close, and what 2025 holds is anyone’s guess, but understanding even the smallest changes in market share and consumer purchasing behaviors can help dealers and manufacturers adapt and navigate the road ahead. Although there are similarities between Millennials and Gen X, there are drastic differences, including motivations and preferences. Dealers and manufacturers should engage them on a generational level. What are they buying? Some of the data might not come as a surprise but it’s a good reminder that consumers are in different phases of life, meaning priorities change. Over the last rolling 12 months, Millennials over-indexed on used vans, accounting for more than one-third of registrations. Meanwhile, Gen X over-indexed on used trucks, making up nearly one-third of registrations, and Gen Z over-indexed on cars (accounting for 17.1% of used car registrations compared to 14.6% of overall used vehicle registrations). This isn’t surprising. Many Millennials have young families and may need extra space and functionality, while Gen Xers might prefer the versatility of the pickup truck—the ability to use it for work and personal use. On the other hand, Gen Zers are still early in their careers and gravitate towards the affordability and efficiency of smaller cars. Interestingly, although used electric vehicles only make up a small portion of used retail registrations (less than 1%), Millennials made up nearly 40% over the last rolling 12 months, followed by Gen X (32.2%) and Baby Boomers (15.8%). The market at a bird’s eye view Pulling back a bit on the used vehicle landscape, over the last rolling 12 months, CUVs/SUVs (38.9%) and cars (36.6%) accounted for the majority of used retail registrations. And nearly nine-in-ten used registrations were non-luxury vehicles. What’s more, ICE vehicles made up 88.5% of used retail registrations over the same period, while alternative-fuel vehicles (not including BEVs) made up 10.7% and electric vehicles made up 0.8%. At the finance level, we’re seeing the market shift ever so slightly. Since the beginning of the pandemic, one of the constant narratives in the industry has been the rising cost of owning a vehicle, both new and used. And while the average loan amount for a used non-luxury vehicle has gone up over the past five years, we’re seeing a gradual decline since 2022. In 2019, the average loan amount was $22,636 and spiked $29,983 in 2022. In 2024, the average loan amount reached $28,895. Much of the decline in average loan amounts can be attributed to the resurgence of new vehicle inventory, which has resulted in lower used values. With new leasing climbing over the past several quarters, we may see more late-model used inventory hit the market in the next few years, which will most certainly impact used financing. The used market moving forward Relying on historical data and trends can help dealers and manufacturers prepare and navigate the road ahead. Used vehicles will always fit the need for shoppers looking for their next vehicle; understanding some market trends will help ensure dealers and manufacturers can be at the forefront of helping those shoppers. For more information on the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report, visit Experian booth #627 at the NADA Show in New Orleans, January 23-26.
The automotive industry is constantly changing. Shifting consumer demands and preferences, as well as dynamic economic factors, make the need for data-driven insights more important than ever. As we head into the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show this week, we wanted to explore some of the trends in the used vehicle market in our Special Report: State of the Automotive Finance Market Report. Packed with valuable insights and the latest trends, we’ll take a deep dive into the multi-faceted used vehicle market and better understand how consumers are financing used vehicles. 9+ model years grow Although late-model vehicles tend to represent much of the used vehicle finance market, we were surprised by the gradual growth of 9+ model year (MY) vehicles. In 2019, 9+MY vehicles accounted for 26.6% of the used vehicle sales. Since then, we’ve seen year-over-year growth, culminating with 9+MY vehicles making up a little more than 30% of used vehicle sales in 2024. Perhaps more interesting though, is who is financing these vehicles. Five years ago, prime and super prime borrowers represented 42.5% of 9+MY vehicles, however, in 2024, those consumers accounted for nearly 54% of 9+MY originations. Among the more popular 9+MY segments, CUVs and SUVs comprised 36.9% of sales in 2024, up from 35.2% in 2023, while cars went from 44.3% to 42.9% year-over-year and pickup trucks decreased from 15.9% to 15.6%. 2024 highlights by used vehicle age group To get a better sense of the overall used market, the segments were broken down into three age groups—9+MY, 4-8MY, and current +3MY—and to no surprise, the finance attributes vary widely. While we’ve seen the return of new vehicle inventory drive used vehicle values lower, it could be a sign that consumers are continuing to seek out affordable options that fit their lifestyle. In fact, the average loan amount for a 9+MY vehicle was $19,376 in 2024, compared to $24,198 for a vehicle between 4-8 years old and $32,381 for +3MY vehicle. Plus, more than 55% of 9+MY vehicles have monthly payments under $400. That’s not an insignificant number for people shopping with the monthly payment in mind. In 2024, the average monthly payment for a used vehicle that falls under current+3MY was $608. Meanwhile, 4-8MY vehicles came in at an average monthly payment of $498, and 9+MY vehicles had a $431 monthly payment. Taking a deeper dive into average loan amounts based on specific vehicle types—as of 2024, current +3MY cars came in at $28,721, followed by CUVs/SUVs ($31,589) and pickup trucks ($40,618). As for 4-8MY vehicles, cars came in with a loan amount of $22,013, CUVs/SUVs were at $23,133, and pickup trucks at $31,114. Used 9+MY cars had a loan amount of $19,506, CUVs/SUVs came in at $17,350, and pickup trucks at $22,369. With interest rates remaining top of mind for most consumers as we’ve seen them increase in recent years, understanding the growth from 2019-2024 can give a holistic picture of how the market has shifted over time. For instance, the average interest rate for a used current+3MY vehicle was 8.0% in 2019 and grew to 10.2% in 2024, the average rate for a 4-8MY vehicle went from 10.3% to 12.9%, and the average rate for a 9+MY vehicle increased from 11.4% to 13.8% in the same time frame. Looking ahead to the used vehicle market It’s important for automotive professionals to understand and leverage the data of the used market as it can provide valuable insights into trending consumer behavior and pricing patterns. While we don’t exactly know where the market will stand in a few years—adapting strategies based on historical data and anticipating shifts can help professionals better prepare for both challenges and opportunities in the future. As used vehicles remain a staple piece of the automotive industry, making informed decisions and optimizing inventory management will ensure agility as the market continues to shift. For more information, visit us at the Experian booth (#627) during the NADA Show in New Orleans from January 23-26.
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