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ExperianThis is the citation
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of the printing and typesetting industry. Lorem Ipsum has been the industry’s standard dummy text ever since the 1500s, when an unknown printer took a galley of type and scrambled it to make a type specimen book. It has survived not only five centuries, but also the leap into electronic typesetting, remaining essentially unchanged. It was popularised in the 1960s with the release of Letraset sheets containing Lorem Ipsum passages, and more recently with desktop publishing software like Aldus PageMaker including versions of Lorem Ipsum
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Many desktop publishing packages and web page editors now use Lorem Ipsum as their default model text, and a search for ‘lorem ipsum’ will uncover many web sites still in their infancy.
Data has become one of the most powerful tools in the automotive industry. It’s opened the door to innovative design, predictive maintenance, improved operations and more accurate risk assessments. And now, as we navigate COVID-19, the industry is leaning on data more than ever to move ahead. It can start with deeper insight into what’s on the road. A keen understanding of market trends can inform operational strategy for the coming months—and if there’s ever been a time to be strategic, it’s now. Experian recently released its Q1 2020 Market Trends report, which provides insights about the vehicles on the road and the most popular vehicle segments. Entry-level crossover vehicles continue to gain significant market share When looking at the top 20 segments of vehicles in operation, you likely won’t be surprised to find full-size pickups are the most popular vehicle, with 15.9 percent market share. It’s followed by standard mid-range cars (10 percent), but that will likely change soon. Entry-level crossover vehicles (CUVs) reached 9.9 percent of market share in Q1 2020—coming close to eclipsing mid-range cars. CUVs such as the Toyota RAV4, Ford Escape, and Honda CRV have seen continuous growth since Q1 2009, and are unlikely to stop anytime soon. In fact, as Q1 2020, CUVs comprised just over 50 percent of new vehicle registrations, more than any other vehicle segment. While the first inclination would be to think about this in terms of inventory impact, there are clear marketing implications. While full-size pickups remain the vehicle of choice for many car shoppers, increases in other vehicle types reinforce the need to understand your local market—particularly during this time. In-market car shoppers have different needs—extra legroom, fuel efficiency, more seats, etc. Gone are the days of the one-size-fits-all campaigns. Understand the preferences of your local market and adjust messaging accordingly—just because full-size pickups are the most popular nationwide, doesn’t mean other areas are not in-market for a different vehicle. Aftermarket “sweet spot” is growing Vehicles that are 6 – 12 years old fall into what’s known as the aftermarket “sweet spot,” meaning that they’ve aged out of general manufacturer warranties, and will require consumers to pay closer attention to maintenance and potentially replace critical components—an opportunity for many aftermarket companies and dealers. As of Q1 2020, 31.5 percent of vehicles in operation fell into that “sweet spot.” As the industry continues to think about consumers’ most pressing needs—what about consumers who aren’t in market to purchase but do have a vehicle in the “sweet spot”? Do they understand what service their vehicle may need, and why it’s important? This can be a good time to educate consumers on why routine upkeep is vital to keeping their vehicles on the road. This will build rapport with customers that will keep your brand top of mind for service needs, but also the next time they’re in market for a vehicle. At the end of the day, data is at its most powerful when it enables us to make actionable decisions, whether they’re about marketing, inventory, or reopening in the current environment. The automotive industry will continue to remain resilient if we focus on the data available to us to make the right decisions as we move the industry forward, together. To view the full Q1 2020 Market Trends presentation, click here
Everyone in the automotive industry has considered the same questions: What is the sales impact of COVID-19, and how will it influence the future of our industry? While the long-term impacts remain largely unknown, origination data from April and May provide some insight into the more immediate effects of the pandemic. Both April and May saw vehicle registrations decrease year-over-year—however, it’s important to note, we saw slight improvement during the month of May. In April, new vehicle registrations dropped 50.8 percent, while used vehicles dropped 54 percent. We still saw declines in May, though the drops were significantly smaller–new vehicles were down 33.3 percent and used vehicles were down 32.4 percent. Captives see jump in market share One of the biggest changes since the start of COVID-19 is a shift in lender market share; specifically, captive lenders saw a dramatic increase in market share over the last three months. At the beginning of March, captive lenders comprised 52.7 percent of the auto finance market. That jumped to 55.7 percent in April, and as of May 1, reached 62.1 percent of the market. Much of the increase in April and May was driven both by numerous incentives offered to encourage consumers to purchase vehicles and historically low interest rates. Consumers choosing loans over leases Another emerging trend from the last two months is more consumers choosing loans over leases. In April of 2019, 30 percent of all new vehicles were leased, while in April of 2020 that dropped to 24 percent. May showed a similar pattern: 30.1 percent of new vehicles were leased in May of 2019, but only 23.3 percent in May of 2020. The decrease in leasing could be attributed to dealer closures or consumer inability to transact. While this may not have an immediate industry impact, it may down the road. For the past few years, leasing has hovered around 30 percent of new vehicle sales. This has helped to drive used vehicle sales since late-model off-lease vehicles have become increasingly popular with prime consumers. In fact, in Q1 2020, prime consumers made up more than 50 percent of used vehicle loans. We may not know the long-term effects of the pandemic but staying close to the latest data will help lenders and dealers make informed decisions as they navigate the current landscape. Ultimately, this is a time in which lenders and dealers can build relationships with consumers by meeting their most pressing needs, which not only builds loyalty – it keeps the industry moving forward.
Experian’s Chris Ryan and Bobbie Paul recently re-joined David Mattei from Aite to discuss how emerging fraud trends and changes in consumer behavior will have long-term impacts on businesses. Chris, Bobbie, and David have combined experience of more than 60 years in the world of fraud prevention. In this discussion, they bring that experience to bear as they review how businesses should revise their long-term fraud strategy in response to COVID-19 and the subsequent economic shifts, including: The requirements to authenticate a digital customer Businesses’ technology challenges Differentiating between first party and third party fraud The importance of businesses’ technology investment How to build a roadmap for the next 90 days and beyond Experian · Make Your Fraud Plan Recession-Ready: Your 90 Day and Beyond Plan
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With the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show set to kickoff later this week, it seemed fitting to explore how the shifting dynamics of the used vehicle market might impact dealers and buyers over the coming year. Shedding light on some of the registration and finance trends, as well as purchasing behaviors, can help dealers and manufacturers stay ahead of the curve. And just like that, the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report was born. As I was sifting through the data, one of the trends that stood out to me was the neck-and-neck race between Millennials and Gen X for supremacy in the used vehicle market. Five years ago, in 2019, Millennials were responsible for 33.3% of used retail registrations, followed by Gen X (29.5%) and Baby Boomers (26.8%). Since then, Baby Boomers have gradually fallen off, and Gen X continues to close the already minuscule gap. Through October 2024, Millennials accounted for 31.6%, while Gen X accounted for 30.4%. But trends can turn on a dime if the last year offers any indication. Over the last rolling 12 months (October 2023-October 2024), Gen X (31.4%) accounted for the majority of used vehicle registrations compared to Millennials (30.9%). Of course, the data is still close, and what 2025 holds is anyone’s guess, but understanding even the smallest changes in market share and consumer purchasing behaviors can help dealers and manufacturers adapt and navigate the road ahead. Although there are similarities between Millennials and Gen X, there are drastic differences, including motivations and preferences. Dealers and manufacturers should engage them on a generational level. What are they buying? Some of the data might not come as a surprise but it’s a good reminder that consumers are in different phases of life, meaning priorities change. Over the last rolling 12 months, Millennials over-indexed on used vans, accounting for more than one-third of registrations. Meanwhile, Gen X over-indexed on used trucks, making up nearly one-third of registrations, and Gen Z over-indexed on cars (accounting for 17.1% of used car registrations compared to 14.6% of overall used vehicle registrations). This isn’t surprising. Many Millennials have young families and may need extra space and functionality, while Gen Xers might prefer the versatility of the pickup truck—the ability to use it for work and personal use. On the other hand, Gen Zers are still early in their careers and gravitate towards the affordability and efficiency of smaller cars. Interestingly, although used electric vehicles only make up a small portion of used retail registrations (less than 1%), Millennials made up nearly 40% over the last rolling 12 months, followed by Gen X (32.2%) and Baby Boomers (15.8%). The market at a bird’s eye view Pulling back a bit on the used vehicle landscape, over the last rolling 12 months, CUVs/SUVs (38.9%) and cars (36.6%) accounted for the majority of used retail registrations. And nearly nine-in-ten used registrations were non-luxury vehicles. What’s more, ICE vehicles made up 88.5% of used retail registrations over the same period, while alternative-fuel vehicles (not including BEVs) made up 10.7% and electric vehicles made up 0.8%. At the finance level, we’re seeing the market shift ever so slightly. Since the beginning of the pandemic, one of the constant narratives in the industry has been the rising cost of owning a vehicle, both new and used. And while the average loan amount for a used non-luxury vehicle has gone up over the past five years, we’re seeing a gradual decline since 2022. In 2019, the average loan amount was $22,636 and spiked $29,983 in 2022. In 2024, the average loan amount reached $28,895. Much of the decline in average loan amounts can be attributed to the resurgence of new vehicle inventory, which has resulted in lower used values. With new leasing climbing over the past several quarters, we may see more late-model used inventory hit the market in the next few years, which will most certainly impact used financing. The used market moving forward Relying on historical data and trends can help dealers and manufacturers prepare and navigate the road ahead. Used vehicles will always fit the need for shoppers looking for their next vehicle; understanding some market trends will help ensure dealers and manufacturers can be at the forefront of helping those shoppers. For more information on the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report, visit Experian booth #627 at the NADA Show in New Orleans, January 23-26.
The automotive industry is constantly changing. Shifting consumer demands and preferences, as well as dynamic economic factors, make the need for data-driven insights more important than ever. As we head into the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show this week, we wanted to explore some of the trends in the used vehicle market in our Special Report: State of the Automotive Finance Market Report. Packed with valuable insights and the latest trends, we’ll take a deep dive into the multi-faceted used vehicle market and better understand how consumers are financing used vehicles. 9+ model years grow Although late-model vehicles tend to represent much of the used vehicle finance market, we were surprised by the gradual growth of 9+ model year (MY) vehicles. In 2019, 9+MY vehicles accounted for 26.6% of the used vehicle sales. Since then, we’ve seen year-over-year growth, culminating with 9+MY vehicles making up a little more than 30% of used vehicle sales in 2024. Perhaps more interesting though, is who is financing these vehicles. Five years ago, prime and super prime borrowers represented 42.5% of 9+MY vehicles, however, in 2024, those consumers accounted for nearly 54% of 9+MY originations. Among the more popular 9+MY segments, CUVs and SUVs comprised 36.9% of sales in 2024, up from 35.2% in 2023, while cars went from 44.3% to 42.9% year-over-year and pickup trucks decreased from 15.9% to 15.6%. 2024 highlights by used vehicle age group To get a better sense of the overall used market, the segments were broken down into three age groups—9+MY, 4-8MY, and current +3MY—and to no surprise, the finance attributes vary widely. While we’ve seen the return of new vehicle inventory drive used vehicle values lower, it could be a sign that consumers are continuing to seek out affordable options that fit their lifestyle. In fact, the average loan amount for a 9+MY vehicle was $19,376 in 2024, compared to $24,198 for a vehicle between 4-8 years old and $32,381 for +3MY vehicle. Plus, more than 55% of 9+MY vehicles have monthly payments under $400. That’s not an insignificant number for people shopping with the monthly payment in mind. In 2024, the average monthly payment for a used vehicle that falls under current+3MY was $608. Meanwhile, 4-8MY vehicles came in at an average monthly payment of $498, and 9+MY vehicles had a $431 monthly payment. Taking a deeper dive into average loan amounts based on specific vehicle types—as of 2024, current +3MY cars came in at $28,721, followed by CUVs/SUVs ($31,589) and pickup trucks ($40,618). As for 4-8MY vehicles, cars came in with a loan amount of $22,013, CUVs/SUVs were at $23,133, and pickup trucks at $31,114. Used 9+MY cars had a loan amount of $19,506, CUVs/SUVs came in at $17,350, and pickup trucks at $22,369. With interest rates remaining top of mind for most consumers as we’ve seen them increase in recent years, understanding the growth from 2019-2024 can give a holistic picture of how the market has shifted over time. For instance, the average interest rate for a used current+3MY vehicle was 8.0% in 2019 and grew to 10.2% in 2024, the average rate for a 4-8MY vehicle went from 10.3% to 12.9%, and the average rate for a 9+MY vehicle increased from 11.4% to 13.8% in the same time frame. Looking ahead to the used vehicle market It’s important for automotive professionals to understand and leverage the data of the used market as it can provide valuable insights into trending consumer behavior and pricing patterns. While we don’t exactly know where the market will stand in a few years—adapting strategies based on historical data and anticipating shifts can help professionals better prepare for both challenges and opportunities in the future. As used vehicles remain a staple piece of the automotive industry, making informed decisions and optimizing inventory management will ensure agility as the market continues to shift. For more information, visit us at the Experian booth (#627) during the NADA Show in New Orleans from January 23-26.
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typesetting, remaining essentially unchanged. It was popularised in the 1960s with the release of Letraset sheets containing Lorem Ipsum passages, and more recently with desktop publishing software like Aldus PageMaker including versions of Lorem Ipsum.