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of the printing and typesetting industry. Lorem Ipsum has been the industry’s standard dummy text ever since the 1500s, when an unknown printer took a galley of type and scrambled it to make a type specimen book. It has survived not only five centuries, but also the leap into electronic typesetting, remaining essentially unchanged. It was popularised in the 1960s with the release of Letraset sheets containing Lorem Ipsum passages, and more recently with desktop publishing software like Aldus PageMaker including versions of Lorem Ipsum
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Friend or foe? Sophisticated criminals put a great deal of effort into creating convincing, verifiable personas (AKA synthetic identities). Once the fictional customer has embedded itself in your business, everything from the acquisition of financial instruments to healthcare benefits, utility services, and tax filings and refunds become vulnerable to synthetic identity fraud. Information attached to synthetic IDs can run several levels deep and be so complete that it includes public record data, credit information, documentary evidence and social media profiles that may even contain photo sets and historical details intended to deceive—all complicating your efforts to identify these fake customers before you do business with them. See real-world examples of how synthetic identity fraud is souring various markets – from auto and healthcare to financial services and public sector – in our tip sheet, Four common synthetic scenarios. Stopping synthetic ID fraud — at the door and thereafter. There are efforts underway in the market to collectively improve your ability to identify, shut down and prevent synthetic identities from entering your portfolio. This overall trend is great news for the future, but there are also near-term solutions you can apply to protect your business starting now. While it’s important to identify synthetic identities when they knock on your door, it’s just as important to conduct regular portfolio checkups to prevent negative impacts to your collections efforts. Every circumstance has its own unique parameters, but the overarching steps necessary to mitigate fraud from synthetic IDs remain the same: Identify current and near-term exposure using targeted segmentation analysis. Apply technology that alerts you when identity data doesn’t add up. Differentiate fraudulent identities from those simply based on bad data. Review front- and back-end screening procedures until they satisfy best practices. Achieve a “single view of the customer” for all account holders across access channels—online, mobile, call center and face-to-face. The right tools for the job. In addition to the steps mentioned above, stopping these fake customers from entering and then stealing from your organization isn’t easy—but with the right tools and strategies, it is possible. Here are a few of our top recommendations: Forensics Isolate and segment identities based on signals received during early account pathing, from both individuals and their device. For example, even sophisticated fraud networks can’t mimic natural per-device user interaction because these organizations work with hundreds or thousands of synthetic identities using just a few devices. It’s highly unlikely that multiple geographically separate account holders would share the same physical device. High-risk fraud scores Not all synthetic identity fraud manifests the same way. Using sophisticated logic and unique combinations of data, a high-risk fraud score looks at a consumer’s credit behavior and credit relationships over time to uncover previously undetectable risk. These scores are especially successful in detecting identities that are products of synthetic identity farms. And by targeting a specific data set and relationships, you can maintain a frictionless customer experience and reduce false positives. Analytics Use a solution that develops models of bad applicant behavior, then compares and scores your portfolio against these models. There isn’t a single rule for detecting fraudulent identities, but you can develop an informed set of rules and targeted models with the right service partner. Cross-referencing models designed to isolate high-risk identity theft cases, first-party or true-name fraud schemes, and synthetic identities can be accomplished in a decisioning strategy or via a custom model that incorporates the aggregate scores and attributes holistically. Synthetic identity detection rules These specialized rules consist of numerous conditions that evaluate a broad selection of consumer behaviors. When they occur in specific combinations, these behaviors indicate synthetic identity fraud. This broad-based approach provides a comprehensive evaluation of an identity to more effectively determine if it’s fabricated. It also helps reduce the incidence of inaccurately associating a real identity with a fictitious one, providing a better customer experience. Work streams Address synthetic identities confidently by applying analytics to work streams throughout the customer life cycle: Credit risk assessment Know Your Customer/Customer Identification Program checks Risk-based identity proofing and authentication Existing account management Manual reviews, investigations and charge-offs/collections activities Learn more about these tools and others that can help you mitigate synthetic identities in our white paper, Synthetic identities: getting real with customers. If your organization is like most, detecting SIDs hasn't been your top priority. So, there's no time to waste in preventing them from entering your portfolio. Criminals are highly motivated to innovate their approaches as rapidly as possible, and it’s important to implement a solution that addresses the continued rise of synthetic IDs from multiple engagement points. With the right set of analytics and decisioning tools, you can reduce exposure to fraud and losses stemming from synthetic identity attacks from the beginning and across the customer life cycle. We can help you detect and mitigate these fake customers before they become delinquent. Learn more
You can do everything you can to prepare for the unexpected. But similar to how any first-time parent feels… you might need some help. Call in the grandparents! Experian has extensive expertise and has been around for a long time in the industry, but unlike your traditional grandparents, Experian continuously innovates, researches trends, and validates best practices in fraud and identity verification. That’s why we explored two prominent fraud reports, Javelin’s 2019 Identity Fraud Study: Fraudsters Seek New Targets and Victims Bear the Brunt and Experian’s 2019 Global Identity and Fraud Report — Consumer trust: Building meaningful relationships online, to help you identify and respond to new trends surrounding fraud. What we found – and what you need to know – is there are trends, technology and tactics that can help and hinder your fraud-prevention efforts. Consider the many digital channels available today. A full 91 percent of consumers transacted online in 2018. This presents a great opportunity for businesses to serve and develop relationships with customers. It also presents a great opportunity for fraudsters as well – as almost half of consumers have experienced a fraudulent online event. Since the threat of fraud is not impacting customers’ willingness to transact online, businesses are held responsible for adapting and evolving to not only protect their customers, but to secure their bottom line. This becomes increasingly important as fraudsters continue to target and expose vulnerabilities across inexperienced lines of businesses. Or, how about passwords. Research has shown that both businesses and consumers have greater confidence in biometrics, but neither is ready to stop using passwords. The continued reliance on traditional authentication methods is a delicate balance between security, trust and convenience. Passwords provide both authentication and consumer confidence in the online experience. It also adds friction to the user experience – and sometimes aggravation when passwords are forgotten. Advanced methods, like physical and behavioral biometrics and device intelligence, are gaining user confidence by both businesses and consumers. But a completely frictionless authentication experience can leave consumers doubting the safeness of their transaction. As you respond and adapt to our ever-evolving world, we encourage you to build and strengthen a trusted relationship with your customers through transparency. Consumers know that businesses are collection data about them. When a business is transparent about the use of that data, digital trust and consumer confidence soars. Through a stronger relationship, customers are more willing to accept friction and need fewer signs of security. Learn more about these and other trends, technology and tactics that can help and hinder your authentication efforts in our new E-book, Upcoming fraud trends and how to combat them.
Vehicle affordability has been a main topic of conversation in the auto industry for some time, and based on the data, it’s not going unnoticed by consumers. The average new vehicle loan in Q1 2019 reached $32,187, while the average new vehicle monthly loan payment hit $554. How are car shoppers reacting? Perhaps the biggest shift in Q1 2019 was the growth of prime and super prime customers opting for used vehicles. The percentage of prime (61.88 percent) and super-prime (44.78 percent) consumers choosing used vehicles reached an all-time high in Q1 2019, according to Experian data. Not only are we seeing new payment amounts increase, but used loan amounts and payments are on the rise as well, though the delta between the two can be one of the reason we’re seeing more prime and super prime opt for used. The average used vehicle loan was slightly above $20,000 in Q1 2019, while the average used vehicle payment was $391. We know that consumers often shop based on the monthly payment amount, and given the $163 difference between average monthly payments for new and used, it’s not surprising to see more people opt for used vehicles. Another way that consumers can look to have a smaller payment amount is through leasing. We’re continuing to see that the top vehicles leased are more expensive CUVs, trucks and SUVs, which are pricier vehicles to purchase. But with the average lease payment being $457 per month, there’s an average difference of $97 compared to loan payments. In Q1 2019, leasing was down slightly year-over-year, but still accounted for 29.07 percent of all vehicle financing. On the other side of the affordability equation, beyond cost of vehicles, is concern around delinquencies: will consumers be able to make their payments in a timely manner? So far, so good. In Q1 2019, 30-day delinquencies saw an increase to 1.98 percent, up from 1.9 percent a year ago. That said, banks, credit unions and finance companies all saw slight decreases in 30-day delinquency rates, and 60-day delinquencies remained relatively stable at 0.68 percent year-over-year. It’s important to keep in mind that the 30-day delinquency rate is still well-below the high-water mark in Q1 2009 (2.81 percent). The vehicle finance market appears to remain strong overall, despite rising vehicle costs, loan amounts and monthly payments. Expect consumers to continue to find ways to minimize monthly payments. This could continue the shift into used vehicles. Overall, as long as delinquencies stay flat and vehicle sales don’t taper too badly, the auto finance market should stay on a positive course. To watch the full Q1 2019 State of the Automotive Finance Market webinar, click here.
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With the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show set to kickoff later this week, it seemed fitting to explore how the shifting dynamics of the used vehicle market might impact dealers and buyers over the coming year. Shedding light on some of the registration and finance trends, as well as purchasing behaviors, can help dealers and manufacturers stay ahead of the curve. And just like that, the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report was born. As I was sifting through the data, one of the trends that stood out to me was the neck-and-neck race between Millennials and Gen X for supremacy in the used vehicle market. Five years ago, in 2019, Millennials were responsible for 33.3% of used retail registrations, followed by Gen X (29.5%) and Baby Boomers (26.8%). Since then, Baby Boomers have gradually fallen off, and Gen X continues to close the already minuscule gap. Through October 2024, Millennials accounted for 31.6%, while Gen X accounted for 30.4%. But trends can turn on a dime if the last year offers any indication. Over the last rolling 12 months (October 2023-October 2024), Gen X (31.4%) accounted for the majority of used vehicle registrations compared to Millennials (30.9%). Of course, the data is still close, and what 2025 holds is anyone’s guess, but understanding even the smallest changes in market share and consumer purchasing behaviors can help dealers and manufacturers adapt and navigate the road ahead. Although there are similarities between Millennials and Gen X, there are drastic differences, including motivations and preferences. Dealers and manufacturers should engage them on a generational level. What are they buying? Some of the data might not come as a surprise but it’s a good reminder that consumers are in different phases of life, meaning priorities change. Over the last rolling 12 months, Millennials over-indexed on used vans, accounting for more than one-third of registrations. Meanwhile, Gen X over-indexed on used trucks, making up nearly one-third of registrations, and Gen Z over-indexed on cars (accounting for 17.1% of used car registrations compared to 14.6% of overall used vehicle registrations). This isn’t surprising. Many Millennials have young families and may need extra space and functionality, while Gen Xers might prefer the versatility of the pickup truck—the ability to use it for work and personal use. On the other hand, Gen Zers are still early in their careers and gravitate towards the affordability and efficiency of smaller cars. Interestingly, although used electric vehicles only make up a small portion of used retail registrations (less than 1%), Millennials made up nearly 40% over the last rolling 12 months, followed by Gen X (32.2%) and Baby Boomers (15.8%). The market at a bird’s eye view Pulling back a bit on the used vehicle landscape, over the last rolling 12 months, CUVs/SUVs (38.9%) and cars (36.6%) accounted for the majority of used retail registrations. And nearly nine-in-ten used registrations were non-luxury vehicles. What’s more, ICE vehicles made up 88.5% of used retail registrations over the same period, while alternative-fuel vehicles (not including BEVs) made up 10.7% and electric vehicles made up 0.8%. At the finance level, we’re seeing the market shift ever so slightly. Since the beginning of the pandemic, one of the constant narratives in the industry has been the rising cost of owning a vehicle, both new and used. And while the average loan amount for a used non-luxury vehicle has gone up over the past five years, we’re seeing a gradual decline since 2022. In 2019, the average loan amount was $22,636 and spiked $29,983 in 2022. In 2024, the average loan amount reached $28,895. Much of the decline in average loan amounts can be attributed to the resurgence of new vehicle inventory, which has resulted in lower used values. With new leasing climbing over the past several quarters, we may see more late-model used inventory hit the market in the next few years, which will most certainly impact used financing. The used market moving forward Relying on historical data and trends can help dealers and manufacturers prepare and navigate the road ahead. Used vehicles will always fit the need for shoppers looking for their next vehicle; understanding some market trends will help ensure dealers and manufacturers can be at the forefront of helping those shoppers. For more information on the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report, visit Experian booth #627 at the NADA Show in New Orleans, January 23-26.
The automotive industry is constantly changing. Shifting consumer demands and preferences, as well as dynamic economic factors, make the need for data-driven insights more important than ever. As we head into the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show this week, we wanted to explore some of the trends in the used vehicle market in our Special Report: State of the Automotive Finance Market Report. Packed with valuable insights and the latest trends, we’ll take a deep dive into the multi-faceted used vehicle market and better understand how consumers are financing used vehicles. 9+ model years grow Although late-model vehicles tend to represent much of the used vehicle finance market, we were surprised by the gradual growth of 9+ model year (MY) vehicles. In 2019, 9+MY vehicles accounted for 26.6% of the used vehicle sales. Since then, we’ve seen year-over-year growth, culminating with 9+MY vehicles making up a little more than 30% of used vehicle sales in 2024. Perhaps more interesting though, is who is financing these vehicles. Five years ago, prime and super prime borrowers represented 42.5% of 9+MY vehicles, however, in 2024, those consumers accounted for nearly 54% of 9+MY originations. Among the more popular 9+MY segments, CUVs and SUVs comprised 36.9% of sales in 2024, up from 35.2% in 2023, while cars went from 44.3% to 42.9% year-over-year and pickup trucks decreased from 15.9% to 15.6%. 2024 highlights by used vehicle age group To get a better sense of the overall used market, the segments were broken down into three age groups—9+MY, 4-8MY, and current +3MY—and to no surprise, the finance attributes vary widely. While we’ve seen the return of new vehicle inventory drive used vehicle values lower, it could be a sign that consumers are continuing to seek out affordable options that fit their lifestyle. In fact, the average loan amount for a 9+MY vehicle was $19,376 in 2024, compared to $24,198 for a vehicle between 4-8 years old and $32,381 for +3MY vehicle. Plus, more than 55% of 9+MY vehicles have monthly payments under $400. That’s not an insignificant number for people shopping with the monthly payment in mind. In 2024, the average monthly payment for a used vehicle that falls under current+3MY was $608. Meanwhile, 4-8MY vehicles came in at an average monthly payment of $498, and 9+MY vehicles had a $431 monthly payment. Taking a deeper dive into average loan amounts based on specific vehicle types—as of 2024, current +3MY cars came in at $28,721, followed by CUVs/SUVs ($31,589) and pickup trucks ($40,618). As for 4-8MY vehicles, cars came in with a loan amount of $22,013, CUVs/SUVs were at $23,133, and pickup trucks at $31,114. Used 9+MY cars had a loan amount of $19,506, CUVs/SUVs came in at $17,350, and pickup trucks at $22,369. With interest rates remaining top of mind for most consumers as we’ve seen them increase in recent years, understanding the growth from 2019-2024 can give a holistic picture of how the market has shifted over time. For instance, the average interest rate for a used current+3MY vehicle was 8.0% in 2019 and grew to 10.2% in 2024, the average rate for a 4-8MY vehicle went from 10.3% to 12.9%, and the average rate for a 9+MY vehicle increased from 11.4% to 13.8% in the same time frame. Looking ahead to the used vehicle market It’s important for automotive professionals to understand and leverage the data of the used market as it can provide valuable insights into trending consumer behavior and pricing patterns. While we don’t exactly know where the market will stand in a few years—adapting strategies based on historical data and anticipating shifts can help professionals better prepare for both challenges and opportunities in the future. As used vehicles remain a staple piece of the automotive industry, making informed decisions and optimizing inventory management will ensure agility as the market continues to shift. For more information, visit us at the Experian booth (#627) during the NADA Show in New Orleans from January 23-26.
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typesetting, remaining essentially unchanged. It was popularised in the 1960s with the release of Letraset sheets containing Lorem Ipsum passages, and more recently with desktop publishing software like Aldus PageMaker including versions of Lorem Ipsum.