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ExperianThis is the citation
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of the printing and typesetting industry. Lorem Ipsum has been the industry’s standard dummy text ever since the 1500s, when an unknown printer took a galley of type and scrambled it to make a type specimen book. It has survived not only five centuries, but also the leap into electronic typesetting, remaining essentially unchanged. It was popularised in the 1960s with the release of Letraset sheets containing Lorem Ipsum passages, and more recently with desktop publishing software like Aldus PageMaker including versions of Lorem Ipsum
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Many desktop publishing packages and web page editors now use Lorem Ipsum as their default model text, and a search for ‘lorem ipsum’ will uncover many web sites still in their infancy.
You’ve been tasked with developing a new model or enhancing an existing one, but the available data doesn’t include performance across the entire population of prospective customers. Sound familiar? A standard practice is to infer customer performance by using reject inference, but how can you improve your reject inference design? Reject inference is a technique used to classify the performance outcome of prospective customers within the declined or nonbooked population so this population’s performance reflects its performance had it been booked. A common method is to develop a parceling model using credit bureau attributes pulled at the time of application. This type of data, known as pre-diction data, can be used to predict the outcome of the customer prospect based on a data sample containing observations with known performance. Since the objective of a reject inference model is to classify, not necessarily predict, the outcome of the nonbooked population, data pulled at the end of the performance window can be used to develop the model, provided the accounts being classified are excluded from the attributes used to build the model. This type of data is known as post-diction data. Reject inference parceling models built using post-diction data generally have much higher model performance metrics, such as the KS statistic, also known as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, or the Gini coefficient, compared with reject inference parceling models built using pre-diction data. Use of post-diction data within a reject inference model design can boost the reliability of the nonbooked population performance classification. The additional lift in performance of the reject inference model can translate into improvements within the final model design. Post-diction credit bureau data can be easily obtained from Experian along with pre-diction data typically used for predictive model development. The Experian Decision Analytics team can help get you started.
Early reports suggest the 2017 holiday season was a good one for retailers. Consumers were in the mood to spend, and as such, Americans’ total credit card debt continued to climb. Americans planned to spend $862 on gifts for the season, a huge jump from the $752 they planned on spending in 2016. And the numbers were significantly higher than their estimate in any November since 2007 — just before the 2007-2009 recession. 29% of Americans said they planned to spend more than $1,000. What does this mean for card portfolios? Well, business is booming, but they should also prepare for the time of year when consumers are most apt to seek out debt consolidation and transfer options. A recent NerdWallet analysis revealed the average household that’s carrying credit card debt has a balance of roughly $15,654. Dig deeper into retail card specifically and reports indicate Americans are carrying $1,841 in retail debt. “There is seasonality to consumer credit card behavior,” said Denise McKendall, a credit card and trended data specialist for Experian. “As we roll into the late winter months and early spring, consumers often seek ways to transfer card debt to lower interest rate options, consolidate debt from multiple cards and perhaps even pull out personal loans. This makes it an ideal time for card portfolio managers to leverage data to anticipate consumer behaviors and be able to offer the best rates and options to retain cardholders and grow.” Card portfolio managers should consider these questions: What is my portfolio risk? Did some of my consumers overextend themselves? Do I have collections triggers on my accounts to mitigate risk and manage delinquencies? Which consumers in my portfolio will be looking to consolidate debt? Should I reassess credit line limits? Which of my consumers show a high propensity to make a balance transfer? Do I have opportunities to grow my portfolio by offering attractive rates to new customers? Which customers will leave after low introductory rates expire? Can I use this time of year to become the first credit card consumers’ consistently use, rather than the second or third card they pull from wallet? At first glance, it might appear challenging to answer many of these questions, but with the right data and analytics, a card manager can easily establish a game plan to conquest new business, mitigate risk and retain existing, high-value consumers. The robust holiday season was a boom for the economy. Now card companies need to ready themselves for the aftermath.
The U.S. Senate Banking Committee passed a financial regulatory relief bill (S. 2155) in December 2017 aimed at reducing regulatory burdens on community banks, credit unions and smaller regional banks. Committee Chairman Senator Mike Crapo (R-ID), sponsored the bill, which has strong bipartisan support, with 23 cosponsors (11 Republicans and 12 Democrats and an independent). The package is likely to be considered by the full Senate in early 2018. The legislation includes two provisions related to consumer credit reporting. Both were adopted, in part, in reaction to the Equifax data breach. As the bill moves through the legislative process during 2018, it will be important for all participants in the consumer credit ecosystem to be aware of the potential changes in law. One provision deals with fraud alerts and credit freezes for consumers and the other deals with how medical debt is processed for veterans who seek medical treatment outside the VA system. Credit Freezes The bill amends the Fair Credit Reporting Act to provide consumers with the ability to freeze/unfreeze credit files maintained by nationwide credit reporting agencies at no cost, and would extend the time period for initial fraud alerts from 90 days to one year. The credit freeze provisions would also establish a process for parents and guardians to place a freeze on the file of a minor at no cost. The bill would require the nationwide credit reporting agencies to create webpages with information on credit freezes, fraud alerts, active duty alerts and pre-screen opt-outs and these pages would be linked to the FTC’s existing website, www.IdentityTheft.gov. The credit freeze and minor freeze provisions would preempt State laws and create a national standard. Protections for Veterans The bill also incorporates a provision that would prohibit credit bureaus from including debt for health-care related services that the veteran received through the Department of Veterans Affairs’ Choice Program. The provision would cover debt that the veteran incurred in the previous year, as well as any delinquent debt that was fully paid or settled. The legislation would require a consumer reporting agency to delete medical debt if it receives information from either the veteran or the VA that the debt was incurred through the Veteran’s Choice Program. What’s next The bill now awaits consideration before the full Senate. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said that the bill is a “candidate for early consideration” in 2018, but the exact timing of floor debate has yet to be scheduled. Once the package passes the Senate, it will need to be reconciled with the regulatory relief package that was passed by the House last spring.
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With the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show set to kickoff later this week, it seemed fitting to explore how the shifting dynamics of the used vehicle market might impact dealers and buyers over the coming year. Shedding light on some of the registration and finance trends, as well as purchasing behaviors, can help dealers and manufacturers stay ahead of the curve. And just like that, the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report was born. As I was sifting through the data, one of the trends that stood out to me was the neck-and-neck race between Millennials and Gen X for supremacy in the used vehicle market. Five years ago, in 2019, Millennials were responsible for 33.3% of used retail registrations, followed by Gen X (29.5%) and Baby Boomers (26.8%). Since then, Baby Boomers have gradually fallen off, and Gen X continues to close the already minuscule gap. Through October 2024, Millennials accounted for 31.6%, while Gen X accounted for 30.4%. But trends can turn on a dime if the last year offers any indication. Over the last rolling 12 months (October 2023-October 2024), Gen X (31.4%) accounted for the majority of used vehicle registrations compared to Millennials (30.9%). Of course, the data is still close, and what 2025 holds is anyone’s guess, but understanding even the smallest changes in market share and consumer purchasing behaviors can help dealers and manufacturers adapt and navigate the road ahead. Although there are similarities between Millennials and Gen X, there are drastic differences, including motivations and preferences. Dealers and manufacturers should engage them on a generational level. What are they buying? Some of the data might not come as a surprise but it’s a good reminder that consumers are in different phases of life, meaning priorities change. Over the last rolling 12 months, Millennials over-indexed on used vans, accounting for more than one-third of registrations. Meanwhile, Gen X over-indexed on used trucks, making up nearly one-third of registrations, and Gen Z over-indexed on cars (accounting for 17.1% of used car registrations compared to 14.6% of overall used vehicle registrations). This isn’t surprising. Many Millennials have young families and may need extra space and functionality, while Gen Xers might prefer the versatility of the pickup truck—the ability to use it for work and personal use. On the other hand, Gen Zers are still early in their careers and gravitate towards the affordability and efficiency of smaller cars. Interestingly, although used electric vehicles only make up a small portion of used retail registrations (less than 1%), Millennials made up nearly 40% over the last rolling 12 months, followed by Gen X (32.2%) and Baby Boomers (15.8%). The market at a bird’s eye view Pulling back a bit on the used vehicle landscape, over the last rolling 12 months, CUVs/SUVs (38.9%) and cars (36.6%) accounted for the majority of used retail registrations. And nearly nine-in-ten used registrations were non-luxury vehicles. What’s more, ICE vehicles made up 88.5% of used retail registrations over the same period, while alternative-fuel vehicles (not including BEVs) made up 10.7% and electric vehicles made up 0.8%. At the finance level, we’re seeing the market shift ever so slightly. Since the beginning of the pandemic, one of the constant narratives in the industry has been the rising cost of owning a vehicle, both new and used. And while the average loan amount for a used non-luxury vehicle has gone up over the past five years, we’re seeing a gradual decline since 2022. In 2019, the average loan amount was $22,636 and spiked $29,983 in 2022. In 2024, the average loan amount reached $28,895. Much of the decline in average loan amounts can be attributed to the resurgence of new vehicle inventory, which has resulted in lower used values. With new leasing climbing over the past several quarters, we may see more late-model used inventory hit the market in the next few years, which will most certainly impact used financing. The used market moving forward Relying on historical data and trends can help dealers and manufacturers prepare and navigate the road ahead. Used vehicles will always fit the need for shoppers looking for their next vehicle; understanding some market trends will help ensure dealers and manufacturers can be at the forefront of helping those shoppers. For more information on the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report, visit Experian booth #627 at the NADA Show in New Orleans, January 23-26.
The automotive industry is constantly changing. Shifting consumer demands and preferences, as well as dynamic economic factors, make the need for data-driven insights more important than ever. As we head into the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show this week, we wanted to explore some of the trends in the used vehicle market in our Special Report: State of the Automotive Finance Market Report. Packed with valuable insights and the latest trends, we’ll take a deep dive into the multi-faceted used vehicle market and better understand how consumers are financing used vehicles. 9+ model years grow Although late-model vehicles tend to represent much of the used vehicle finance market, we were surprised by the gradual growth of 9+ model year (MY) vehicles. In 2019, 9+MY vehicles accounted for 26.6% of the used vehicle sales. Since then, we’ve seen year-over-year growth, culminating with 9+MY vehicles making up a little more than 30% of used vehicle sales in 2024. Perhaps more interesting though, is who is financing these vehicles. Five years ago, prime and super prime borrowers represented 42.5% of 9+MY vehicles, however, in 2024, those consumers accounted for nearly 54% of 9+MY originations. Among the more popular 9+MY segments, CUVs and SUVs comprised 36.9% of sales in 2024, up from 35.2% in 2023, while cars went from 44.3% to 42.9% year-over-year and pickup trucks decreased from 15.9% to 15.6%. 2024 highlights by used vehicle age group To get a better sense of the overall used market, the segments were broken down into three age groups—9+MY, 4-8MY, and current +3MY—and to no surprise, the finance attributes vary widely. While we’ve seen the return of new vehicle inventory drive used vehicle values lower, it could be a sign that consumers are continuing to seek out affordable options that fit their lifestyle. In fact, the average loan amount for a 9+MY vehicle was $19,376 in 2024, compared to $24,198 for a vehicle between 4-8 years old and $32,381 for +3MY vehicle. Plus, more than 55% of 9+MY vehicles have monthly payments under $400. That’s not an insignificant number for people shopping with the monthly payment in mind. In 2024, the average monthly payment for a used vehicle that falls under current+3MY was $608. Meanwhile, 4-8MY vehicles came in at an average monthly payment of $498, and 9+MY vehicles had a $431 monthly payment. Taking a deeper dive into average loan amounts based on specific vehicle types—as of 2024, current +3MY cars came in at $28,721, followed by CUVs/SUVs ($31,589) and pickup trucks ($40,618). As for 4-8MY vehicles, cars came in with a loan amount of $22,013, CUVs/SUVs were at $23,133, and pickup trucks at $31,114. Used 9+MY cars had a loan amount of $19,506, CUVs/SUVs came in at $17,350, and pickup trucks at $22,369. With interest rates remaining top of mind for most consumers as we’ve seen them increase in recent years, understanding the growth from 2019-2024 can give a holistic picture of how the market has shifted over time. For instance, the average interest rate for a used current+3MY vehicle was 8.0% in 2019 and grew to 10.2% in 2024, the average rate for a 4-8MY vehicle went from 10.3% to 12.9%, and the average rate for a 9+MY vehicle increased from 11.4% to 13.8% in the same time frame. Looking ahead to the used vehicle market It’s important for automotive professionals to understand and leverage the data of the used market as it can provide valuable insights into trending consumer behavior and pricing patterns. While we don’t exactly know where the market will stand in a few years—adapting strategies based on historical data and anticipating shifts can help professionals better prepare for both challenges and opportunities in the future. As used vehicles remain a staple piece of the automotive industry, making informed decisions and optimizing inventory management will ensure agility as the market continues to shift. For more information, visit us at the Experian booth (#627) during the NADA Show in New Orleans from January 23-26.
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typesetting, remaining essentially unchanged. It was popularised in the 1960s with the release of Letraset sheets containing Lorem Ipsum passages, and more recently with desktop publishing software like Aldus PageMaker including versions of Lorem Ipsum.