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of the printing and typesetting industry. Lorem Ipsum has been the industry’s standard dummy text ever since the 1500s, when an unknown printer took a galley of type and scrambled it to make a type specimen book. It has survived not only five centuries, but also the leap into electronic typesetting, remaining essentially unchanged. It was popularised in the 1960s with the release of Letraset sheets containing Lorem Ipsum passages, and more recently with desktop publishing software like Aldus PageMaker including versions of Lorem Ipsum
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It’s more than mercury that will be up this summer. As temperatures climb, so do automotive sales, which often reach annual highs during the warmest months of the year. Fueled by pent-up demand coming out of the recession, historically low interest rates, and increased competition among both manufacturers and lenders, auto sales are continuing to be a bright spot in the U.S. economy. Summer sales spike According to recent research by Experian Automotive, 2015 sales of new non-luxury vehicles began rising in May and peaked in August at nearly 20 percent above the monthly average for the year. It is not surprising, given the number of notable manufacturer marketing campaigns that often air through the summer months, beginning with Memorial Day and running all the way through Labor Day weekend. The projection is that this trend will continue in 2016. Financing moves metal Financing continues to play an important role in facilitating new car sales. Experian research shows a consistent increase in the percentage of new vehicles sold with financing with the trend reaching a period high of 85.9 percent in Q4 2015, a 2.3 percent increase over the previous year. The increased financing, is due in part, to continued post-recession liquidity. As the economy has rebounded, lenders have re-emerged with attractive financing rates for buyers. In addition, captive lenders are continuing to support manufacturers with 0 percent subvention offers to increase sales. Total loan value is on the rise as well, reaching $29,551 in Q4 2015, a 4.1 percent increase over the previous year. Average MSRP is trending up too, but at a slower year-over-year rate of 3.6 percent. The slower growth in MSRP relative to total loan value is leading to increased loan-to-value ratios which reached 109.4 percent in Q4 2015. The increases in loan value and MSRP are putting pressure on monthly payment with average new vehicle payments reaching $493 per month on new loans in the fourth quarter. Seeking relief, consumers are turning to longer loan terms and leasing to maintain lower payments. As a result, average new vehicle loan terms ticked slightly higher to 67 months while lease penetration on new vehicles reached 28.9 percent, a 19 percent increase over the previous year. Leveraging the trends Timing is everything when it comes to auto lending. Direct mail remains an effective communication tool for lenders, but mass mailers without regard to response rates yield poor ROIs and put future campaigns in jeopardy. Targeting consumers who are most likely to be in the market at a point in time can increase response rates and improve overall campaign performance. Experian’s In the Market Model – Auto leverages the power of trended credit data to identify consumers that will be most receptive to an offer. By focusing on high-propensity consumers, lenders can conduct more marketing campaigns during the year with the same budget and achieve supercharged results. Context-based marketing allows lenders to tailor offers by leveraging insights on a consumer’s existing loans. Product offers can additionally be customized based on estimated interest rates, months remaining, or current loan balance on open auto loans. Targeted refinance offers can also be delivered to consumers with high interest rates or focus new-loan offers on consumers with minimal months or balance remaining on existing loans. Understanding current auto loans allows lenders to target offers that are relevant to their prospects and gain an advantage over the competition. Increases in loan-to-value (LTV) ratios at origination and longer loan terms are putting many consumers in deep negative equity positions. As a result, many consumers will not qualify for refinance offers without significant down payments leading to low underwriting conversion rates and poor customer experience. Lenders seeking to improve on these metrics should leverage Experian’s Auto Equity Model, which provides an estimate of the amount of equity a consumer has in their existing auto trades. Focusing refinance offers on consumers with negative equity, while suppressing those with deep negative positions, can help improve response rates while minimizing declines due to LTV requirements. Takeaways Lenders should be gearing up for the summer auto sales spike. Proactive strategies will allow savvy marketers to deploy capital and grow their portfolio by taking advantage of customer insight. Timing and context matter, and as auto sales trends reveal, now is the opportune time to optimize marketing efforts and capitalize on the season.
Part 3 in our series on Insights from the Vision 2016 fraud and identity track Our Vision 2016 fraud track session titled “Deployment Made Easy — solving new fraud problems by Adapting Legacy Solutions” offered insights into the future of analytics and the mechanisms for delivering them. The session included two case studies, the first of which highlighted a recently completed project in which an Experian client struggling with rising application fraud losses had to find a way to deploy advanced analytics without any IT resources. To assist the customer, data passing through an existing customer interface was reformatted and redirected to our Precise ID® platform. Upon arrival in Precise ID, a custom-built fraud scoring model was invoked. The results were then translated back into the format used by the legacy interface so that they could be ingested by the customer’s systems. This case study illustrates the key value proposition of Experian’s new CrossCoreTM fraud and identity platform. CrossCore features a similar “translation layer” for inquiries coming into Experian’s fraud and identity tools that will allow customers to define fraud-screening workflows that call a variety of services. The IT burden for connecting the inquiry to various Experian and non-Experian services will fall on Experian — sparing the customer from the challenge of financing and prioritizing IT resources. Similarly, the output from CrossCore will provide a ready-to-consume response that integrates directly with our customers’ host systems. The audience showed keen interest in the “here and now” illustration of what CrossCore will enable. Our second case study was provided by Eric Heikkila at Amazon Web Services™ and focused on the future of analytics. For an audience accustomed to the constraints of developing advanced analytics in a rigid data-structure, Amazon’s description of a “data lake” was a fascinating picture of what’s possible. The data lake offers the simultaneous ability to accommodate existing structured customer data along with new unstructured data in an infinitely scalable data set. Equally important is the data lake’s ability to accommodate an unlimited array of data mining and analytical tools. Amazon’s message was clear and simple — the fraud industry’s trepidation around the use of big data is misplaced. The fear of making the wrong choice of data storage and analytical tools is unnecessary. To illustrate this point, Eric shared an Amazon Web Services case study that used FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority). FINRA is responsible for overseeing U.S. securities markets to ensure that rules are followed and integrity is maintained. Amid a bewildering set of ever-changing regulations and peak volumes of 35 trillion per day — yes, trillion — Amazon’s data lake supports both the scale and analytical demands of a complex industry. As the delivery and access to fraud products is made easy by CrossCore, the data and analytics will expand through the use of services like Amazon’s data lake. As the participants will agree, the future of fraud technology is closer than you think!
More home buyers and sellers tend to enter the market in the warmer months, making spring and summer a busy season for mortgage brokers and lenders seeking to close deals and work through the mounds of paperwork associated with a home purchase. In April, the number of existing homes sold shot up 4.9 percent year-over-year, to 471,000 purchases across the United States, according to a recent report from the National Association of Realtors®. And sales were up 11.9 percent in April from March. With the belief that mortgage rates will finally start to climb in the coming months, fence-sitters will likely make a move this summer in order to capitalize on attractive rates, creating a healthy home-buying season. On average, it takes 45 days to close a home loan, and anyone going through that process will admit the process can cause stress, anxiety and uncertainty. In fact, a recent study ranked buying a home as the No. 1 most stressful experiences in modern life with 69 percent calling it “stressful.” There are so many tollgates along the journey. Will the consumer qualify for a mortgage? Will the home appraise at the right price? Does the home pass inspection? Are there contingencies that can suddenly halt the sale? Will the seller or buyer get cold feet and send weeks of work down the drain? Of course there are many factors people can’t control as they seek to land their next home, but there are ways both the consumer and lender can work together to smooth out the process and endure the average 45-day closing period. Getting pre-approved for a home loan is obviously the ideal, with consumers understanding their credit score, existing financial obligations and the type of loan they can qualify for, as well as money required at closing. Increasingly, borrowers know the impact credit can have on their home-buying experience. A 2016 Experian study revealed: 93 percent of consumers reported “one’s credit score is important in purchasing a home” 48 percent stated “they are working to improve their credit to qualify for a better home rate” 34 percent of future first-time buyers say “their credit might hurt their ability to purchase a home” In this competitive market, low fees and interest rates drive consumers’ business. However, credit circumstances such as high debt-to-income ratios, too many open trades, or high balances may inhibit lenders or mortgage brokers from offering favorable terms, or even approving a loan altogether. In these scenarios, consumers may qualify for better loan terms simply by paying down debt. Lenders or brokers can assist their customer in rapidly refreshing, re-scoring, or correcting information on their credit report in one to two business days. This step can obviously help consumers, but also benefit lenders by retaining credit applicants before they pursue competitive offerings. Occasionally errors may pop up on a consumer’s credit report – an outdated trade line or inaccuracy – which can also impact the home-buying process. Consumers have the ability to file a dispute with the credit bureaus or their lender directly, and those disputes must be addressed within 30 days. However, if a loan process is already underway, mortgage brokers and lenders can help expedite the process by using a product like Experian’s Express Request™ to facilitate dispute resolution in 48 hours. Quickly addressing an inaccuracy benefits the home buyer, but also the lender who is likely working to close a number of loans during the busy spring and summer months. Without a doubt, the documentation process surrounding a home purchase is intense, but if all parties come to the table quickly with the requested items and verification, the process can be smoother. And then the stress can turn to scheduling moving vans and packing …
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With the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show set to kickoff later this week, it seemed fitting to explore how the shifting dynamics of the used vehicle market might impact dealers and buyers over the coming year. Shedding light on some of the registration and finance trends, as well as purchasing behaviors, can help dealers and manufacturers stay ahead of the curve. And just like that, the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report was born. As I was sifting through the data, one of the trends that stood out to me was the neck-and-neck race between Millennials and Gen X for supremacy in the used vehicle market. Five years ago, in 2019, Millennials were responsible for 33.3% of used retail registrations, followed by Gen X (29.5%) and Baby Boomers (26.8%). Since then, Baby Boomers have gradually fallen off, and Gen X continues to close the already minuscule gap. Through October 2024, Millennials accounted for 31.6%, while Gen X accounted for 30.4%. But trends can turn on a dime if the last year offers any indication. Over the last rolling 12 months (October 2023-October 2024), Gen X (31.4%) accounted for the majority of used vehicle registrations compared to Millennials (30.9%). Of course, the data is still close, and what 2025 holds is anyone’s guess, but understanding even the smallest changes in market share and consumer purchasing behaviors can help dealers and manufacturers adapt and navigate the road ahead. Although there are similarities between Millennials and Gen X, there are drastic differences, including motivations and preferences. Dealers and manufacturers should engage them on a generational level. What are they buying? Some of the data might not come as a surprise but it’s a good reminder that consumers are in different phases of life, meaning priorities change. Over the last rolling 12 months, Millennials over-indexed on used vans, accounting for more than one-third of registrations. Meanwhile, Gen X over-indexed on used trucks, making up nearly one-third of registrations, and Gen Z over-indexed on cars (accounting for 17.1% of used car registrations compared to 14.6% of overall used vehicle registrations). This isn’t surprising. Many Millennials have young families and may need extra space and functionality, while Gen Xers might prefer the versatility of the pickup truck—the ability to use it for work and personal use. On the other hand, Gen Zers are still early in their careers and gravitate towards the affordability and efficiency of smaller cars. Interestingly, although used electric vehicles only make up a small portion of used retail registrations (less than 1%), Millennials made up nearly 40% over the last rolling 12 months, followed by Gen X (32.2%) and Baby Boomers (15.8%). The market at a bird’s eye view Pulling back a bit on the used vehicle landscape, over the last rolling 12 months, CUVs/SUVs (38.9%) and cars (36.6%) accounted for the majority of used retail registrations. And nearly nine-in-ten used registrations were non-luxury vehicles. What’s more, ICE vehicles made up 88.5% of used retail registrations over the same period, while alternative-fuel vehicles (not including BEVs) made up 10.7% and electric vehicles made up 0.8%. At the finance level, we’re seeing the market shift ever so slightly. Since the beginning of the pandemic, one of the constant narratives in the industry has been the rising cost of owning a vehicle, both new and used. And while the average loan amount for a used non-luxury vehicle has gone up over the past five years, we’re seeing a gradual decline since 2022. In 2019, the average loan amount was $22,636 and spiked $29,983 in 2022. In 2024, the average loan amount reached $28,895. Much of the decline in average loan amounts can be attributed to the resurgence of new vehicle inventory, which has resulted in lower used values. With new leasing climbing over the past several quarters, we may see more late-model used inventory hit the market in the next few years, which will most certainly impact used financing. The used market moving forward Relying on historical data and trends can help dealers and manufacturers prepare and navigate the road ahead. Used vehicles will always fit the need for shoppers looking for their next vehicle; understanding some market trends will help ensure dealers and manufacturers can be at the forefront of helping those shoppers. For more information on the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report, visit Experian booth #627 at the NADA Show in New Orleans, January 23-26.
The automotive industry is constantly changing. Shifting consumer demands and preferences, as well as dynamic economic factors, make the need for data-driven insights more important than ever. As we head into the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show this week, we wanted to explore some of the trends in the used vehicle market in our Special Report: State of the Automotive Finance Market Report. Packed with valuable insights and the latest trends, we’ll take a deep dive into the multi-faceted used vehicle market and better understand how consumers are financing used vehicles. 9+ model years grow Although late-model vehicles tend to represent much of the used vehicle finance market, we were surprised by the gradual growth of 9+ model year (MY) vehicles. In 2019, 9+MY vehicles accounted for 26.6% of the used vehicle sales. Since then, we’ve seen year-over-year growth, culminating with 9+MY vehicles making up a little more than 30% of used vehicle sales in 2024. Perhaps more interesting though, is who is financing these vehicles. Five years ago, prime and super prime borrowers represented 42.5% of 9+MY vehicles, however, in 2024, those consumers accounted for nearly 54% of 9+MY originations. Among the more popular 9+MY segments, CUVs and SUVs comprised 36.9% of sales in 2024, up from 35.2% in 2023, while cars went from 44.3% to 42.9% year-over-year and pickup trucks decreased from 15.9% to 15.6%. 2024 highlights by used vehicle age group To get a better sense of the overall used market, the segments were broken down into three age groups—9+MY, 4-8MY, and current +3MY—and to no surprise, the finance attributes vary widely. While we’ve seen the return of new vehicle inventory drive used vehicle values lower, it could be a sign that consumers are continuing to seek out affordable options that fit their lifestyle. In fact, the average loan amount for a 9+MY vehicle was $19,376 in 2024, compared to $24,198 for a vehicle between 4-8 years old and $32,381 for +3MY vehicle. Plus, more than 55% of 9+MY vehicles have monthly payments under $400. That’s not an insignificant number for people shopping with the monthly payment in mind. In 2024, the average monthly payment for a used vehicle that falls under current+3MY was $608. Meanwhile, 4-8MY vehicles came in at an average monthly payment of $498, and 9+MY vehicles had a $431 monthly payment. Taking a deeper dive into average loan amounts based on specific vehicle types—as of 2024, current +3MY cars came in at $28,721, followed by CUVs/SUVs ($31,589) and pickup trucks ($40,618). As for 4-8MY vehicles, cars came in with a loan amount of $22,013, CUVs/SUVs were at $23,133, and pickup trucks at $31,114. Used 9+MY cars had a loan amount of $19,506, CUVs/SUVs came in at $17,350, and pickup trucks at $22,369. With interest rates remaining top of mind for most consumers as we’ve seen them increase in recent years, understanding the growth from 2019-2024 can give a holistic picture of how the market has shifted over time. For instance, the average interest rate for a used current+3MY vehicle was 8.0% in 2019 and grew to 10.2% in 2024, the average rate for a 4-8MY vehicle went from 10.3% to 12.9%, and the average rate for a 9+MY vehicle increased from 11.4% to 13.8% in the same time frame. Looking ahead to the used vehicle market It’s important for automotive professionals to understand and leverage the data of the used market as it can provide valuable insights into trending consumer behavior and pricing patterns. While we don’t exactly know where the market will stand in a few years—adapting strategies based on historical data and anticipating shifts can help professionals better prepare for both challenges and opportunities in the future. As used vehicles remain a staple piece of the automotive industry, making informed decisions and optimizing inventory management will ensure agility as the market continues to shift. For more information, visit us at the Experian booth (#627) during the NADA Show in New Orleans from January 23-26.
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