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of the printing and typesetting industry. Lorem Ipsum has been the industry’s standard dummy text ever since the 1500s, when an unknown printer took a galley of type and scrambled it to make a type specimen book. It has survived not only five centuries, but also the leap into electronic typesetting, remaining essentially unchanged. It was popularised in the 1960s with the release of Letraset sheets containing Lorem Ipsum passages, and more recently with desktop publishing software like Aldus PageMaker including versions of Lorem Ipsum
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Our clients are facing three primary issues when it comes to regulatory compliance: time resources knowledge Many are facing Matters Requiring Attention (MRA) and Matters Requiring Immediate Attention (MRIA) and don’t have the staff or the capacity to complete all of the work themselves within tight deadlines. They also want their limited resources to work on internal, proprietary initiatives to grow the business and maximize profit and return. These activities cannot be outsourced as easily as regulatory and compliance work, which is relatively easy to parse out and give to an external third party. Quite often, a level of independent oversight and effective challenge is also a requirement that can easily be solved through the use of an objective, external third party. A lot of the regulations are still relatively new, and there are still many issues and knowledge gaps our clients are facing. They have insight into their own organization only and quite often aren’t aware of or able to leverage industry best practice without the view of an external third party with broader industry knowledge and experience. In terms of best practice, it all really starts with the data, leading to the attributes used in models to create sound risk management strategies, manage capital adequacy, and ensure the safety and soundness of the overall U.S. and global financial system. The integrity of data reporting, dispute management and compliance with all applicable regulatory requirements need to be an enterprise-wide effort. In the area of attribute governance, there are three primary areas of focus: Attribution creation — definitions; logic, code and accuracy; and how to reduce implementation timelines. Monitoring and maintenance — looking for shifts in attributes and their potential impact and facilitating updates to attributes based upon changes in reporting and upgrades to newer versions of attributes as the credit environment changes, such as during the most recent mortgage crisis, where loan modification and associated attributes were created and took on increased importance. And last but definitely not least, documentation — We cannot say enough about the importance of documentation, especially to regulators. Documentation ensures accuracy and consistent application and must record all general conventions and limitations. For model risk management and governance, focus areas should follow the expanded Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) Guidance from Bulletin 2011-12. This guidance includes expanded requirements for model validations including not just standard back testing, but also benchmarking, effective challenge, sensitivity analysis and stress testing. It also expands the guidance beyond just validation to model development and usage, implementation, governance and controls. In response to these OCC expanded guidance requirements, one of our clients was seeking an industry expert to serve as an independent third party to 1) conduct industry best practice and benchmarking in areas of reject inference methodologies and 2) validate production models used for risk underwriting, line assignment, pricing and targeting. After a full review and assessment, we provided the client with a clear road map to improve the process to conduct reject inference through knowledge transfer and best practices. We established a best-in-class approach to annual model validations on a model inventory consisting of retail, small business and wealth segment portfolios. We also delivered expedited results that also identified alternative methods of validation that assess variability in point estimates, as well as comply with OCC requirements for precision, ranking and population measurement statistics. Through our work, the client was able to leverage Experian to establish a global approach to reject inference methodologies, to augment existing staffing and to offshore resources in a cost-effective manner. There are three primary areas of loss forecasting, stress testing and capital adequacy planning: International — Basel accord National — U.S. Dodd-Frank Act Stress Testing (DFAST), including Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) supervisory review Internal — Allowance for Loan and Lease Losses requirements Although there are similarities, there are also important differences among each of these three requirements and practices. For these reasons, most financial institutions in the United States are still providing and managing them separately. This obviously creates a strain on internal staff and resources. One of our clients had an initial compliance strategy in place but did not have the sufficient in-house staff and resources required to create, document and review its modeling and stress testing to satisfy regulators and internal auditors. The organization needed a consultant that could work closely with its in-house team to support sophisticated models that were tailored to meet its specific compliance obligations. We worked closely with the client’s team to provide extensive consulting support for a complex set of loss-forecasting models and other tools, applying industry best practices to fully document the models. Throughout the process, our consulting team discovered and identified content gaps to help ensure that all documentation was complete. We also provided ad hoc analytics to support the client’s model development effort and strategic and tactical guidance on stress testing model development for compliance. This enabled the client to develop primary and challenge models for DFAST’s CCAR requirements, as well as internal stress scenarios. It also provided the client with the following tangible business benefits: balance compliance with maximum profitability and revenue; provided knowledge sharing and best practices to help empower client employees; helped refine models based on feedback from internal and external governance organizations; supported models with academic research to help align the correct model to the correct processes; and provided assistance with model implementation and application. Click here for a recent video I did on how capital-adequacy positions are becoming crucial in analyst recommendations.
Increased volume of fraud attempts during back to school shopping season Back to school shopping season will be the first time many consumers' use their chip-enabled credit cards and stores' new card readers. With the average K-12 family spending $630.36 per child in back to school shopping, and more than 1/3 shopping online, according to the National Retail Federation – is your fraud strategy prepared to handle the increased volume? And are you using a dynamic knowledge based authentication (KBA) solution that incorporates a wide variety of questions categories as part of your multi-faceted risk based authentication approach to fraud account management? Binary verification, or risk segmentation based on a single pass/fail decision is like trying to stay dry in a summer rain storm by wearing a coat. It’s far more effective to wear rubber boots and a use an umbrella, in addition to wearing a rain coat. Binary verification can occur based on evaluating identity elements with two outcomes –pass or fail – which could leave you susceptible to a crafty fraudster. When we recommend a risk based authentication approach, we take a more holistic view of a consumers risk profile. We advocate using analytics and weighting many factors, including identity elements, device intelligence and a robust knowledge-based authentication solution that work in concert to provide overall risk based decision. After all, the end-goal is to enable the good consumers to continue forward based, while preventing the fraudster from compromising your customer’s identity and infiltrating you’re your business.
According to the latest Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report, mortgage originations for Q2 2015 increased 56% over Q2 2014 — $547 billion versus $350 billion. Refinance activity remained relatively stable, accounting for 43% of mortgage originations in Q2 2015 versus 40% for the same quarter in 2014. As mortgage originations continue to grow, lenders can use advanced analytics to gain insight into the latest credit trends and design more profitable campaigns. >> Webinar: Credit trends and the current state of the real-estate market
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With the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show set to kickoff later this week, it seemed fitting to explore how the shifting dynamics of the used vehicle market might impact dealers and buyers over the coming year. Shedding light on some of the registration and finance trends, as well as purchasing behaviors, can help dealers and manufacturers stay ahead of the curve. And just like that, the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report was born. As I was sifting through the data, one of the trends that stood out to me was the neck-and-neck race between Millennials and Gen X for supremacy in the used vehicle market. Five years ago, in 2019, Millennials were responsible for 33.3% of used retail registrations, followed by Gen X (29.5%) and Baby Boomers (26.8%). Since then, Baby Boomers have gradually fallen off, and Gen X continues to close the already minuscule gap. Through October 2024, Millennials accounted for 31.6%, while Gen X accounted for 30.4%. But trends can turn on a dime if the last year offers any indication. Over the last rolling 12 months (October 2023-October 2024), Gen X (31.4%) accounted for the majority of used vehicle registrations compared to Millennials (30.9%). Of course, the data is still close, and what 2025 holds is anyone’s guess, but understanding even the smallest changes in market share and consumer purchasing behaviors can help dealers and manufacturers adapt and navigate the road ahead. Although there are similarities between Millennials and Gen X, there are drastic differences, including motivations and preferences. Dealers and manufacturers should engage them on a generational level. What are they buying? Some of the data might not come as a surprise but it’s a good reminder that consumers are in different phases of life, meaning priorities change. Over the last rolling 12 months, Millennials over-indexed on used vans, accounting for more than one-third of registrations. Meanwhile, Gen X over-indexed on used trucks, making up nearly one-third of registrations, and Gen Z over-indexed on cars (accounting for 17.1% of used car registrations compared to 14.6% of overall used vehicle registrations). This isn’t surprising. Many Millennials have young families and may need extra space and functionality, while Gen Xers might prefer the versatility of the pickup truck—the ability to use it for work and personal use. On the other hand, Gen Zers are still early in their careers and gravitate towards the affordability and efficiency of smaller cars. Interestingly, although used electric vehicles only make up a small portion of used retail registrations (less than 1%), Millennials made up nearly 40% over the last rolling 12 months, followed by Gen X (32.2%) and Baby Boomers (15.8%). The market at a bird’s eye view Pulling back a bit on the used vehicle landscape, over the last rolling 12 months, CUVs/SUVs (38.9%) and cars (36.6%) accounted for the majority of used retail registrations. And nearly nine-in-ten used registrations were non-luxury vehicles. What’s more, ICE vehicles made up 88.5% of used retail registrations over the same period, while alternative-fuel vehicles (not including BEVs) made up 10.7% and electric vehicles made up 0.8%. At the finance level, we’re seeing the market shift ever so slightly. Since the beginning of the pandemic, one of the constant narratives in the industry has been the rising cost of owning a vehicle, both new and used. And while the average loan amount for a used non-luxury vehicle has gone up over the past five years, we’re seeing a gradual decline since 2022. In 2019, the average loan amount was $22,636 and spiked $29,983 in 2022. In 2024, the average loan amount reached $28,895. Much of the decline in average loan amounts can be attributed to the resurgence of new vehicle inventory, which has resulted in lower used values. With new leasing climbing over the past several quarters, we may see more late-model used inventory hit the market in the next few years, which will most certainly impact used financing. The used market moving forward Relying on historical data and trends can help dealers and manufacturers prepare and navigate the road ahead. Used vehicles will always fit the need for shoppers looking for their next vehicle; understanding some market trends will help ensure dealers and manufacturers can be at the forefront of helping those shoppers. For more information on the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report, visit Experian booth #627 at the NADA Show in New Orleans, January 23-26.
The automotive industry is constantly changing. Shifting consumer demands and preferences, as well as dynamic economic factors, make the need for data-driven insights more important than ever. As we head into the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show this week, we wanted to explore some of the trends in the used vehicle market in our Special Report: State of the Automotive Finance Market Report. Packed with valuable insights and the latest trends, we’ll take a deep dive into the multi-faceted used vehicle market and better understand how consumers are financing used vehicles. 9+ model years grow Although late-model vehicles tend to represent much of the used vehicle finance market, we were surprised by the gradual growth of 9+ model year (MY) vehicles. In 2019, 9+MY vehicles accounted for 26.6% of the used vehicle sales. Since then, we’ve seen year-over-year growth, culminating with 9+MY vehicles making up a little more than 30% of used vehicle sales in 2024. Perhaps more interesting though, is who is financing these vehicles. Five years ago, prime and super prime borrowers represented 42.5% of 9+MY vehicles, however, in 2024, those consumers accounted for nearly 54% of 9+MY originations. Among the more popular 9+MY segments, CUVs and SUVs comprised 36.9% of sales in 2024, up from 35.2% in 2023, while cars went from 44.3% to 42.9% year-over-year and pickup trucks decreased from 15.9% to 15.6%. 2024 highlights by used vehicle age group To get a better sense of the overall used market, the segments were broken down into three age groups—9+MY, 4-8MY, and current +3MY—and to no surprise, the finance attributes vary widely. While we’ve seen the return of new vehicle inventory drive used vehicle values lower, it could be a sign that consumers are continuing to seek out affordable options that fit their lifestyle. In fact, the average loan amount for a 9+MY vehicle was $19,376 in 2024, compared to $24,198 for a vehicle between 4-8 years old and $32,381 for +3MY vehicle. Plus, more than 55% of 9+MY vehicles have monthly payments under $400. That’s not an insignificant number for people shopping with the monthly payment in mind. In 2024, the average monthly payment for a used vehicle that falls under current+3MY was $608. Meanwhile, 4-8MY vehicles came in at an average monthly payment of $498, and 9+MY vehicles had a $431 monthly payment. Taking a deeper dive into average loan amounts based on specific vehicle types—as of 2024, current +3MY cars came in at $28,721, followed by CUVs/SUVs ($31,589) and pickup trucks ($40,618). As for 4-8MY vehicles, cars came in with a loan amount of $22,013, CUVs/SUVs were at $23,133, and pickup trucks at $31,114. Used 9+MY cars had a loan amount of $19,506, CUVs/SUVs came in at $17,350, and pickup trucks at $22,369. With interest rates remaining top of mind for most consumers as we’ve seen them increase in recent years, understanding the growth from 2019-2024 can give a holistic picture of how the market has shifted over time. For instance, the average interest rate for a used current+3MY vehicle was 8.0% in 2019 and grew to 10.2% in 2024, the average rate for a 4-8MY vehicle went from 10.3% to 12.9%, and the average rate for a 9+MY vehicle increased from 11.4% to 13.8% in the same time frame. Looking ahead to the used vehicle market It’s important for automotive professionals to understand and leverage the data of the used market as it can provide valuable insights into trending consumer behavior and pricing patterns. While we don’t exactly know where the market will stand in a few years—adapting strategies based on historical data and anticipating shifts can help professionals better prepare for both challenges and opportunities in the future. As used vehicles remain a staple piece of the automotive industry, making informed decisions and optimizing inventory management will ensure agility as the market continues to shift. For more information, visit us at the Experian booth (#627) during the NADA Show in New Orleans from January 23-26.
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typesetting, remaining essentially unchanged. It was popularised in the 1960s with the release of Letraset sheets containing Lorem Ipsum passages, and more recently with desktop publishing software like Aldus PageMaker including versions of Lorem Ipsum.