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of the printing and typesetting industry. Lorem Ipsum has been the industry’s standard dummy text ever since the 1500s, when an unknown printer took a galley of type and scrambled it to make a type specimen book. It has survived not only five centuries, but also the leap into electronic typesetting, remaining essentially unchanged. It was popularised in the 1960s with the release of Letraset sheets containing Lorem Ipsum passages, and more recently with desktop publishing software like Aldus PageMaker including versions of Lorem Ipsum
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Many desktop publishing packages and web page editors now use Lorem Ipsum as their default model text, and a search for ‘lorem ipsum’ will uncover many web sites still in their infancy.
In our most recent webinar, I had the pleasure of moderating a panel session with four fraud experts spanning across many diverse backgrounds. The consistent theme throughout was that cyber criminals have become quite proficient at stealing data or account credentials. Once a cyber criminal has valid account data, they have incredible access to a broad range of possibilities. How an account is used; a real-time view of deposit and withdrawal patterns and what types of alerts and notification settings are in place. A determined fraudster may observe accounts for long periods to ensure they are able to make their move at the optimal time. One of the biggest issues is being able to tell “friend from foe”, particularly in light of the endless supply of perfect, disposable data. I posed this scenario to our panel and asked what organizations can do now to protect themselves: SCENARIO – Telling friend from foe Credit card companies encourage travellers to alert them in advance of unusual travel to avoid red flags or declines while out of town. This can be a double-edged sword. A fraudster with appropriate credentials can contact a credit card company a few weeks before a “trip” to alert them of planned travel. At the start of the “trip” the distraught fraudster can then contact the credit card company to report a stolen card and request a replacement be expedited to them at their “destination.” The result is a fraudster armed with a completely legitimate card they can use at their leisure and with little risk of detection. There were three key take-aways the expert panel recommended: Enhance your visibility. Without this important tactic, you won’t know what hit you. Fraudsters are armed with pristine identity data so they will look and act more like your best customers. Employee multiple security layers. You may be focused on ensuring that you know your customer, but does the transaction pattern fit normal behavior for the user? Malware could be embedded on the device. Are items such as language and other settings consistent with what you’d expect for your legitimate customers? Protect profile setups / online enrolment and reward programs the way you protect transactions. While the financial risk to your business may be limited, the potential regulatory exposure and brand reputation hit can be significant. It takes years to build your reputation with your best customers – but only seconds to destroy it. Undermining their trust in online or mobile interactions with your business has an immediate and destructive impact on loyalty. What do you think? Let us know.
Residential real estate lending was the leading component of the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Could it happen again? Let’s analyze our Intelliview data to see where U.S. lending trends are headed with HELOCs. A large portion of Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) were originated from 2004 to 2007. The term structure of these HELOCs will soon result in larger monthly payments, which could potentially promote consumer debt burden troubles. Additionally, with as much as 13% of all first mortgage customers having balances greater than the value of homes, many HELOCs wallow underwater. HELOCs typically have a ten year draw followed by a twenty-year repayment period. However, there are variations in the term structures. HELOCs can have as little as a five year draw, while others have a fifteen year repayment period. During the draw period, customers only pay interest on the balance. In the repayment period, the account functions like a loan, customers pay principal and interest. In 2012, the Office of Comptroller of the Currency (OCC, the primary banking regulator) reported that 58% of all bank HELOC balances would enter the repayment period and begin to amortize between 2014 and 2017 (OCC, Semiannual Risk Perspective, Spring 2012). This report renewed fears that the increase in payments would lead to higher delinquencies and foreclosures, limit consumer spend and provide a drag on the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, the OCC estimates of the HELOC balances entering the repayment period may be low. The OCC has accounted only for $392 billion of HELOC balances among banks. Experian’s review of all HELOC trades shows a significantly higher level of balances. Additionally, American Banker estimates the top 200 banks and thrifts had more than $477 billion in HELOC outstanding as of the end of 2013, with the top three lenders (Bank of America, Wells Fargo and JP Morgan Chase) comprising nearly $300 billion. Experian examined HELOCs in the four states with the greatest surges in home values and lending prior to the Great Recession. California comprises nearly 19% of all HELOC balances and lines. With averaging HELOC balances of 53% above the national mean, Arizona, Florida and Nevada are the three highest utilization rates by state. Nevada has the highest 30+ day delinquency rate in the country at 2.92%, while the national average is 1.64%. According to CoreLogic’s most recent home price index report, Nevada, Florida and Arizona home prices remain 30-39% below their peak real estate values. California’s prices are down 17%, and the national average home value is still 14% below its highest value. Refinancing HELOCs may be difficult due to the significant number of second liens still underwater. Compounding this difficulty, lending standards also have tightened, with regard to loan-to-value, debt ratios and credit quality. The average HELOC was examined at a 4.5% interest rate and a 20 year repayment period. The average monthly payment increases almost 69% when the account leaves the draw period and requires paying principal balance as well as interest. This payment increase accounts for approximately 2.6% of the median U.S. household gross annual income. It is estimated that the increase in HELOC payments will comprise $1 billion in additional annual payments during 2014, and an additional $9 billion between 2015 through 2017. However, it is important to remember that not all HELOCs will reach repayment. HELOCs are priced based on the prime rate. That rate has been 3.25% for more than five years, a historical low. When prime rate reached this level in December 2008, the rate was at its lowest in 53 years. Only 18 months prior to reaching 3.25%, the prime rate had been 8%. If the prime rate increases by 1% to 4.25%, the average payment of accounts in the draw period would increase 22%, affecting just about every HELOC, with a national increase in annual payments of about $5 billion. The volume of HELOCs that are beginning to enter the repayment period may eventually increase delinquency rates. However, no such increase is yet evident. As shown below, delinquency rates are steady after a long decline. In the past three years, 90+ days delinquency has declined 41%. The Majority of HELOCs are second mortgages. Successful completion of a foreclosure would involve making the customer’s monthly first mortgage payment in addition to all other expenses incurred in foreclosure and the sale of the property. Very often foreclosing from a second lien does not make financial sense unless the financial institution also holds the first mortgage on the property. As a large portion of HELOCs enter the repayment period in the next four years, the payments that customers must make will increase considerably. With interest rates as low as they are, the prime rate will eventually rise, and increase debt service ratios. These payment increases will have implications on consumers, lenders and the economy. Having grown 10.5% in the last year, home values continue to recover from the recession. It is yet to be determined whether this payment increase will have a broader or more isolated impact. In the meantime, HELOCs will continue to see their resurgence. For more insight like this from Experian Decision Analytics, watch our 2014 Q1 Experian–Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report presentation.
Are you sure you are making the best consumer credit decisions? Given the constantly evolving market conditions, it is a challenge to keep informed. In order to confidently grow and manage the bottom line, organizations need to avoid these four basic risks of making credit decisions with limited trend visibility. Competitive Risk – With limited visibility to industry trends, organizations cannot understand their position relative to peers. Product Risk – Organizations without access to the latest consumer behaviors cannot identify and capitalize on emerging trends. Market Risk – Decisions suffer when made without considering market trends in the context of the economy. Resource Risk – Extracting useful insights from vast market data requires abundant resources and comprehensive expertise. Get more information on the business risks of navigating credit decisions with limited trend visibility.
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With the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show set to kickoff later this week, it seemed fitting to explore how the shifting dynamics of the used vehicle market might impact dealers and buyers over the coming year. Shedding light on some of the registration and finance trends, as well as purchasing behaviors, can help dealers and manufacturers stay ahead of the curve. And just like that, the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report was born. As I was sifting through the data, one of the trends that stood out to me was the neck-and-neck race between Millennials and Gen X for supremacy in the used vehicle market. Five years ago, in 2019, Millennials were responsible for 33.3% of used retail registrations, followed by Gen X (29.5%) and Baby Boomers (26.8%). Since then, Baby Boomers have gradually fallen off, and Gen X continues to close the already minuscule gap. Through October 2024, Millennials accounted for 31.6%, while Gen X accounted for 30.4%. But trends can turn on a dime if the last year offers any indication. Over the last rolling 12 months (October 2023-October 2024), Gen X (31.4%) accounted for the majority of used vehicle registrations compared to Millennials (30.9%). Of course, the data is still close, and what 2025 holds is anyone’s guess, but understanding even the smallest changes in market share and consumer purchasing behaviors can help dealers and manufacturers adapt and navigate the road ahead. Although there are similarities between Millennials and Gen X, there are drastic differences, including motivations and preferences. Dealers and manufacturers should engage them on a generational level. What are they buying? Some of the data might not come as a surprise but it’s a good reminder that consumers are in different phases of life, meaning priorities change. Over the last rolling 12 months, Millennials over-indexed on used vans, accounting for more than one-third of registrations. Meanwhile, Gen X over-indexed on used trucks, making up nearly one-third of registrations, and Gen Z over-indexed on cars (accounting for 17.1% of used car registrations compared to 14.6% of overall used vehicle registrations). This isn’t surprising. Many Millennials have young families and may need extra space and functionality, while Gen Xers might prefer the versatility of the pickup truck—the ability to use it for work and personal use. On the other hand, Gen Zers are still early in their careers and gravitate towards the affordability and efficiency of smaller cars. Interestingly, although used electric vehicles only make up a small portion of used retail registrations (less than 1%), Millennials made up nearly 40% over the last rolling 12 months, followed by Gen X (32.2%) and Baby Boomers (15.8%). The market at a bird’s eye view Pulling back a bit on the used vehicle landscape, over the last rolling 12 months, CUVs/SUVs (38.9%) and cars (36.6%) accounted for the majority of used retail registrations. And nearly nine-in-ten used registrations were non-luxury vehicles. What’s more, ICE vehicles made up 88.5% of used retail registrations over the same period, while alternative-fuel vehicles (not including BEVs) made up 10.7% and electric vehicles made up 0.8%. At the finance level, we’re seeing the market shift ever so slightly. Since the beginning of the pandemic, one of the constant narratives in the industry has been the rising cost of owning a vehicle, both new and used. And while the average loan amount for a used non-luxury vehicle has gone up over the past five years, we’re seeing a gradual decline since 2022. In 2019, the average loan amount was $22,636 and spiked $29,983 in 2022. In 2024, the average loan amount reached $28,895. Much of the decline in average loan amounts can be attributed to the resurgence of new vehicle inventory, which has resulted in lower used values. With new leasing climbing over the past several quarters, we may see more late-model used inventory hit the market in the next few years, which will most certainly impact used financing. The used market moving forward Relying on historical data and trends can help dealers and manufacturers prepare and navigate the road ahead. Used vehicles will always fit the need for shoppers looking for their next vehicle; understanding some market trends will help ensure dealers and manufacturers can be at the forefront of helping those shoppers. For more information on the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report, visit Experian booth #627 at the NADA Show in New Orleans, January 23-26.
The automotive industry is constantly changing. Shifting consumer demands and preferences, as well as dynamic economic factors, make the need for data-driven insights more important than ever. As we head into the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show this week, we wanted to explore some of the trends in the used vehicle market in our Special Report: State of the Automotive Finance Market Report. Packed with valuable insights and the latest trends, we’ll take a deep dive into the multi-faceted used vehicle market and better understand how consumers are financing used vehicles. 9+ model years grow Although late-model vehicles tend to represent much of the used vehicle finance market, we were surprised by the gradual growth of 9+ model year (MY) vehicles. In 2019, 9+MY vehicles accounted for 26.6% of the used vehicle sales. Since then, we’ve seen year-over-year growth, culminating with 9+MY vehicles making up a little more than 30% of used vehicle sales in 2024. Perhaps more interesting though, is who is financing these vehicles. Five years ago, prime and super prime borrowers represented 42.5% of 9+MY vehicles, however, in 2024, those consumers accounted for nearly 54% of 9+MY originations. Among the more popular 9+MY segments, CUVs and SUVs comprised 36.9% of sales in 2024, up from 35.2% in 2023, while cars went from 44.3% to 42.9% year-over-year and pickup trucks decreased from 15.9% to 15.6%. 2024 highlights by used vehicle age group To get a better sense of the overall used market, the segments were broken down into three age groups—9+MY, 4-8MY, and current +3MY—and to no surprise, the finance attributes vary widely. While we’ve seen the return of new vehicle inventory drive used vehicle values lower, it could be a sign that consumers are continuing to seek out affordable options that fit their lifestyle. In fact, the average loan amount for a 9+MY vehicle was $19,376 in 2024, compared to $24,198 for a vehicle between 4-8 years old and $32,381 for +3MY vehicle. Plus, more than 55% of 9+MY vehicles have monthly payments under $400. That’s not an insignificant number for people shopping with the monthly payment in mind. In 2024, the average monthly payment for a used vehicle that falls under current+3MY was $608. Meanwhile, 4-8MY vehicles came in at an average monthly payment of $498, and 9+MY vehicles had a $431 monthly payment. Taking a deeper dive into average loan amounts based on specific vehicle types—as of 2024, current +3MY cars came in at $28,721, followed by CUVs/SUVs ($31,589) and pickup trucks ($40,618). As for 4-8MY vehicles, cars came in with a loan amount of $22,013, CUVs/SUVs were at $23,133, and pickup trucks at $31,114. Used 9+MY cars had a loan amount of $19,506, CUVs/SUVs came in at $17,350, and pickup trucks at $22,369. With interest rates remaining top of mind for most consumers as we’ve seen them increase in recent years, understanding the growth from 2019-2024 can give a holistic picture of how the market has shifted over time. For instance, the average interest rate for a used current+3MY vehicle was 8.0% in 2019 and grew to 10.2% in 2024, the average rate for a 4-8MY vehicle went from 10.3% to 12.9%, and the average rate for a 9+MY vehicle increased from 11.4% to 13.8% in the same time frame. Looking ahead to the used vehicle market It’s important for automotive professionals to understand and leverage the data of the used market as it can provide valuable insights into trending consumer behavior and pricing patterns. While we don’t exactly know where the market will stand in a few years—adapting strategies based on historical data and anticipating shifts can help professionals better prepare for both challenges and opportunities in the future. As used vehicles remain a staple piece of the automotive industry, making informed decisions and optimizing inventory management will ensure agility as the market continues to shift. For more information, visit us at the Experian booth (#627) during the NADA Show in New Orleans from January 23-26.
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typesetting, remaining essentially unchanged. It was popularised in the 1960s with the release of Letraset sheets containing Lorem Ipsum passages, and more recently with desktop publishing software like Aldus PageMaker including versions of Lorem Ipsum.