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This article was updated on March 4, 2024. If you steal an identity to commit fraud, your success is determined by how long it takes the victim to find out. That window gets shorter as businesses get better at knowing when and how to reach an identity owner when fraud is suspected. In response, frustrated fraudsters have been developing techniques to commit fraud that does not involve a real identity, giving them a longer run-time and a bigger payday. That's the idea behind synthetic identity (SID) fraud — one of the fastest-growing types of fraud. Defining synthetic identity fraud Organizations tend to have different definitions of synthetic identity fraud, as a synthetic identity will look different to the businesses it attacks. Some may see a new account that goes bad immediately, while others might see a longer tenured account fall delinquent and default. The qualifications of the synthetic identity also change over time, as the fraudster works to increase the identity’s appearance of legitimacy. In the end, there is no person to confirm that fraud has occurred, in the very best case, identifying a synthetic identity is inferred and verified. As a result, inconsistent reporting and categorization can make tracking and fighting SID fraud more difficult. To help create a more unified understanding and response to the issue, the Federal Reserve and 12 fraud experts worked together to develop a definition. In 2021, the Boston Federal Reserve published the result, “Synthetic identity fraud is the use of a combination of personally identifiable information to fabricate a person or entity to commit a dishonest act for personal or financial gain."1 To break down the definition, personally identifiable information (PII) can include: Primary PII: Such as a name, date of birth (DOB), Social Security number (SSN) or another government-issued identifier. When combined, these are generally unique to a person or entity. Secondary PII: Such as an address, email, phone number or device ID. These elements can help verify a person or entity's identity. Synthetic identities are created when fraudsters establish an identity from scratch using fake PII. Or they may combine real and fake PII (I.e., a stolen SSN with a fake name and DOB) to create a new identity. Additionally, fraudsters might steal and use someone's SSN to create an identity – children, the elderly and incarcerated people are popular targets because they don't commonly use credit.4 But any losses would still be tied to the SID rather than the victim. Exploring the Impact of SID fraud The most immediate and obvious impact of SID fraud is the fraud losses. Criminals may create a synthetic identity and spend months building up its credit profile, opening accounts and increasing credit limits. The identities and behaviors are constructed to look like legitimate borrowers, with some having a record of on-time payments. But once the fraudster decides to monetize the identity, they can apply for loans and max out credit cards before ‘busting out’ and disappearing with the money. Aite-Novaric Group estimates that SID fraud losses totaled $1.8 billion in 2020 and will increase to $2.94 billion in 2024.2 However, organizations that do not identify SIDs may classify a default as a credit loss rather than a fraud loss. By some estimates, synthetic identity fraud could account for up to 20 percent of loan and credit card charge-offs, meaning the annual charge-off losses in the U.S. could be closer to $11 billion.3 Additionally, organizations lose time and resources on collection efforts if they do not identify the SID fraud. Those estimates are only for unsecured U.S. credit products. But fraudsters use synthetic identities to take out secured loans, including auto loans. As part of schemes used to steal relief funds during the pandemic, criminals used synthetic identities to open demand deposit accounts to receive funds. These accounts can be used to launder money from other sources and commit peer-to-peer payment fraud. Deposit account holders are also a primary source of cross-marketing for some financial institutions. Criminals can take advantage of vulnerable onboarding processes for deposit accounts where there’s low risk to the institution and receive offers for lending products. Building a successful SID prevention strategy Having an effective SID prevention strategy is more crucial than ever for organizations. Aside from fraud losses, consumers listed identity theft as their top concern when conducting activities online. And while 92% of businesses have an identity verification strategy in place, 63% of consumers are "somewhat confident" or "not very confident" in businesses' ability to accurately identify them online. Read: Experian's 2023 Identity and Fraud Report Many traditional fraud models and identity verification methods are not designed to detect fake people. And even a step up to a phone call for verification isn't enough when the fraudster will be the one answering the phone. Criminals also quickly respond when organizations update their fraud detection methods by looking for less-protected targets. Fraudsters have even signed their SIDs up for social media accounts and apps with low verification hurdles to help their SIDs pass identity checks.5 Understand synthetic identity risks across the lifecycle Synthetic Identities are dynamic. When lending criteria is tightened to synthetics from opening new accounts, they simply come back when they can qualify. If waiting brings a higher credit line, they’ll wait. It’s important to recognize that synthetic identity isn’t a new account or a portfolio management problem – it’s both. Use analytics that are tailored to synthetic identity Many of our customers in the financial services space have been trying to solve synthetic identity fraud with credit data. There’s a false sense of security when criteria is tightened and losses go down—but the losses that are being impacted tend to not be related to credit. A better approach to synthetic ID fraud leverages a larger pool of data to assess behaviors and data linkages that are not contained in traditional credit data. You can then escalate suspicious accounts to require additional reviews, such as screening through the Social Security Administration's Electronic Consent Based SSN Verification (eCBSV) system or more stringent document verification. Find a trusted partner Experian's interconnected data and analytics platforms offer lenders turnkey identity and synthetic identity fraud solutions. In addition, lenders can take advantage of the risk management system and continuous monitoring to look for signs of SIDs and fraudulent activity, which is important for flagging accounts after opening. These tools can also help lenders identify and prevent other common forms of fraud, including account takeovers, e-commerce fraud, child identity theft fraud and elderly fraud. Learn more about our synthetic identity fraud solutions. Learn more 1Federal Reserve Bank (2021). Defining Synthetic Identity Fraud 2Aite Novarica (2022). Synthetic Identity Fraud: Solution Providers Shining Light into the Darkness 3Experian (2022). Preventing synthetic identity fraud 4The Federal Reserve (2022). Synthetic Identity Fraud: What Is it and Why You Should Care? 5Experian (2022). Preventing synthetic identity fraud
This series will dive into our monthly State of the Economy report, providing a snapshot of the top monthly economic and credit data for those in financial services to proactively shape their business strategies. In February, economic growth and job creation outperformed economists’ expectations, likely giving confirmation to the Federal Reserve that it remains too early to begin cutting rates. Data highlights from this month’s report include: U.S. real GDP rose 3.3% in Q4 2023, driven by consumer spending and bringing the average annual 2023 growth to 2.5%, the same as the five-year average growth prior to the pandemic. The labor market maintained its strength, with 353,000 jobs added this month and unemployment holding at 3.7% for the third month in a row. Consumer sentiment rose 13% in January, following a 14% increase in December, as consumers are feeling some relief from cooling inflation. Check out our report for a deep dive into the rest of February’s data, including inflation, the latest Federal Reserve announcement, the housing market, and credit card balances. To have a holistic view of our current environment, we must understand our economic past, present, and future. Check out our annual chartbook for a comprehensive view of the past year and register for our upcoming Macroeconomic Forecasting webinar for a look at the year ahead. Download report Register for webinar For more economic trends and market insights, visit Experian Edge.
Fraud and identity theft in the automotive industry continue to make headlines with the result bringing significant monetary losses for dealers. In 2022, more than 60% of automotive dealerships filed cases of identity theft losing three or more vehicles, with 84% saying there has been a noticeable increase in identity fraud since the pandemic. Even though dealers understand that fraud is on the rise, 66% stated they lacked adequate identity fraud protections [1]. In a recent episode of the Used Car Dealer Podcast, host Zach Klempf, spoke with Kanchana Sundaram, Experian's senior director of product and innovation for automotive, to discuss Fraud Protect, a new tool from Experian that helps dealers combat fraud. During the interview, Kanchana highlighted how dealers can use Fraud Protect to better identify potentially fraudulent behavior, without slowing down the sales process and still maintaining a positive experience for both them and the consumer. By leveraging the latest technology and advanced analytics, dealers are able to detect some of the most common fraud types that include: Third-party fraud: Fraudsters steal an individual’s identity to purchase a vehicle First-party fraud: A person knowingly misrepresents their identity or provides false information, often with the intention of not paying for the vehicle Synthetic identity fraud: Fraudsters create fake identities and build credit profiles over time before using them to finance a vehicle they do not intend to pay for The episode is now available across all major podcast platforms, click the link to watch: YouTube To learn more about Fraud Protect, visit Experian’s auto fraud prevention solutions webpage. For more information on the Used Car Dealer Podcast, visit https://www.sellyautomotive.com/podcast Facebook – @SellyAutomotive ‘X’ – @SellyAutomotive LinkedIn – @SellyAutomotive 1. https://www.elendsolutions.com/research/2022-Identity-Fraud-Survey-Report/
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With the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show set to kickoff later this week, it seemed fitting to explore how the shifting dynamics of the used vehicle market might impact dealers and buyers over the coming year. Shedding light on some of the registration and finance trends, as well as purchasing behaviors, can help dealers and manufacturers stay ahead of the curve. And just like that, the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report was born. As I was sifting through the data, one of the trends that stood out to me was the neck-and-neck race between Millennials and Gen X for supremacy in the used vehicle market. Five years ago, in 2019, Millennials were responsible for 33.3% of used retail registrations, followed by Gen X (29.5%) and Baby Boomers (26.8%). Since then, Baby Boomers have gradually fallen off, and Gen X continues to close the already minuscule gap. Through October 2024, Millennials accounted for 31.6%, while Gen X accounted for 30.4%. But trends can turn on a dime if the last year offers any indication. Over the last rolling 12 months (October 2023-October 2024), Gen X (31.4%) accounted for the majority of used vehicle registrations compared to Millennials (30.9%). Of course, the data is still close, and what 2025 holds is anyone’s guess, but understanding even the smallest changes in market share and consumer purchasing behaviors can help dealers and manufacturers adapt and navigate the road ahead. Although there are similarities between Millennials and Gen X, there are drastic differences, including motivations and preferences. Dealers and manufacturers should engage them on a generational level. What are they buying? Some of the data might not come as a surprise but it’s a good reminder that consumers are in different phases of life, meaning priorities change. Over the last rolling 12 months, Millennials over-indexed on used vans, accounting for more than one-third of registrations. Meanwhile, Gen X over-indexed on used trucks, making up nearly one-third of registrations, and Gen Z over-indexed on cars (accounting for 17.1% of used car registrations compared to 14.6% of overall used vehicle registrations). This isn’t surprising. Many Millennials have young families and may need extra space and functionality, while Gen Xers might prefer the versatility of the pickup truck—the ability to use it for work and personal use. On the other hand, Gen Zers are still early in their careers and gravitate towards the affordability and efficiency of smaller cars. Interestingly, although used electric vehicles only make up a small portion of used retail registrations (less than 1%), Millennials made up nearly 40% over the last rolling 12 months, followed by Gen X (32.2%) and Baby Boomers (15.8%). The market at a bird’s eye view Pulling back a bit on the used vehicle landscape, over the last rolling 12 months, CUVs/SUVs (38.9%) and cars (36.6%) accounted for the majority of used retail registrations. And nearly nine-in-ten used registrations were non-luxury vehicles. What’s more, ICE vehicles made up 88.5% of used retail registrations over the same period, while alternative-fuel vehicles (not including BEVs) made up 10.7% and electric vehicles made up 0.8%. At the finance level, we’re seeing the market shift ever so slightly. Since the beginning of the pandemic, one of the constant narratives in the industry has been the rising cost of owning a vehicle, both new and used. And while the average loan amount for a used non-luxury vehicle has gone up over the past five years, we’re seeing a gradual decline since 2022. In 2019, the average loan amount was $22,636 and spiked $29,983 in 2022. In 2024, the average loan amount reached $28,895. Much of the decline in average loan amounts can be attributed to the resurgence of new vehicle inventory, which has resulted in lower used values. With new leasing climbing over the past several quarters, we may see more late-model used inventory hit the market in the next few years, which will most certainly impact used financing. The used market moving forward Relying on historical data and trends can help dealers and manufacturers prepare and navigate the road ahead. Used vehicles will always fit the need for shoppers looking for their next vehicle; understanding some market trends will help ensure dealers and manufacturers can be at the forefront of helping those shoppers. For more information on the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report, visit Experian booth #627 at the NADA Show in New Orleans, January 23-26.
The automotive industry is constantly changing. Shifting consumer demands and preferences, as well as dynamic economic factors, make the need for data-driven insights more important than ever. As we head into the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show this week, we wanted to explore some of the trends in the used vehicle market in our Special Report: State of the Automotive Finance Market Report. Packed with valuable insights and the latest trends, we’ll take a deep dive into the multi-faceted used vehicle market and better understand how consumers are financing used vehicles. 9+ model years grow Although late-model vehicles tend to represent much of the used vehicle finance market, we were surprised by the gradual growth of 9+ model year (MY) vehicles. In 2019, 9+MY vehicles accounted for 26.6% of the used vehicle sales. Since then, we’ve seen year-over-year growth, culminating with 9+MY vehicles making up a little more than 30% of used vehicle sales in 2024. Perhaps more interesting though, is who is financing these vehicles. Five years ago, prime and super prime borrowers represented 42.5% of 9+MY vehicles, however, in 2024, those consumers accounted for nearly 54% of 9+MY originations. Among the more popular 9+MY segments, CUVs and SUVs comprised 36.9% of sales in 2024, up from 35.2% in 2023, while cars went from 44.3% to 42.9% year-over-year and pickup trucks decreased from 15.9% to 15.6%. 2024 highlights by used vehicle age group To get a better sense of the overall used market, the segments were broken down into three age groups—9+MY, 4-8MY, and current +3MY—and to no surprise, the finance attributes vary widely. While we’ve seen the return of new vehicle inventory drive used vehicle values lower, it could be a sign that consumers are continuing to seek out affordable options that fit their lifestyle. In fact, the average loan amount for a 9+MY vehicle was $19,376 in 2024, compared to $24,198 for a vehicle between 4-8 years old and $32,381 for +3MY vehicle. Plus, more than 55% of 9+MY vehicles have monthly payments under $400. That’s not an insignificant number for people shopping with the monthly payment in mind. In 2024, the average monthly payment for a used vehicle that falls under current+3MY was $608. Meanwhile, 4-8MY vehicles came in at an average monthly payment of $498, and 9+MY vehicles had a $431 monthly payment. Taking a deeper dive into average loan amounts based on specific vehicle types—as of 2024, current +3MY cars came in at $28,721, followed by CUVs/SUVs ($31,589) and pickup trucks ($40,618). As for 4-8MY vehicles, cars came in with a loan amount of $22,013, CUVs/SUVs were at $23,133, and pickup trucks at $31,114. Used 9+MY cars had a loan amount of $19,506, CUVs/SUVs came in at $17,350, and pickup trucks at $22,369. With interest rates remaining top of mind for most consumers as we’ve seen them increase in recent years, understanding the growth from 2019-2024 can give a holistic picture of how the market has shifted over time. For instance, the average interest rate for a used current+3MY vehicle was 8.0% in 2019 and grew to 10.2% in 2024, the average rate for a 4-8MY vehicle went from 10.3% to 12.9%, and the average rate for a 9+MY vehicle increased from 11.4% to 13.8% in the same time frame. Looking ahead to the used vehicle market It’s important for automotive professionals to understand and leverage the data of the used market as it can provide valuable insights into trending consumer behavior and pricing patterns. While we don’t exactly know where the market will stand in a few years—adapting strategies based on historical data and anticipating shifts can help professionals better prepare for both challenges and opportunities in the future. As used vehicles remain a staple piece of the automotive industry, making informed decisions and optimizing inventory management will ensure agility as the market continues to shift. For more information, visit us at the Experian booth (#627) during the NADA Show in New Orleans from January 23-26.
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typesetting, remaining essentially unchanged. It was popularised in the 1960s with the release of Letraset sheets containing Lorem Ipsum passages, and more recently with desktop publishing software like Aldus PageMaker including versions of Lorem Ipsum.