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By: Mike Horrocks Earlier this week, my wife and I were discussing the dinner plans for Thanksgiving. The yams, cranberries, and pumpkin pies were purchased and the secret family recipes were pulled out of the cupboard. Everything was ready…we thought. Then the topic of the turkey was brought up. In the buzz of work, family, kids, etc., both of us had forgotten to get the turkey. We had each thought the other was covering this purchase and had scratched if off our respective lists. Our Thanksgiving dinner was at risk! This made me think of what best practices from our industry could be utilized if I was going to mitigate risks and pull off the perfect dinner. So I pulled the page from the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision that defines operational risk as "the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people, systems or external events” and I have some suggestions that I think work for both your Thanksgiving dinner and for your existing loan portfolios. First, let’s cover “inadequate or failed processes”. Clearly our shopping list process failed. But how are your portfolio management processes? Are they clearly documented and can they be implemented throughout the organization? Your processes should be as well communicated and documented as the “Smashed Yam Bake” recipe or you may be at risk. Next, let focus on the “people and systems”. People make mistakes – learn from them, correct them, and try to get the “systems” to make it so there are fewer mistakes. For example, I don’t want the risk of letting the turkey cook too long, so I use a remote meat thermometer. Ok, it is a little geeky; however the turkey has come out perfect every year. What systems do you have in place to make your quarterly reviews of the portfolio more consistent and up to your standards? Lastly, how do I mitigate those “external events”? Odds are I will be able to still get a turkey tonight. If not, I talked to a friend of mine who is a chef and I have the plans for a goose. How flexible are your operations and how accessible are you to the subject matter experts that can get you out of those situations? A solid risk management program takes into account unforeseen events and can make them into opportunities. So as the Horrocks family gathered in Norman Rockwell like fashion this Thanksgiving, a moment of thanks was given to the folks on the Basel committee. Likewise in your next risk review, I hope you can give thanks for the minimized losses and mitigated risks. Otherwise, we will have one thing very much in common…our goose will be cooked.
This is last question in our five-part series on the FFIEC guidance on what it means to Internet banking, what you need to know and how to prepare for the January 2012 deadline. Q: How are organizations responding? Experian estimates that less than half of the institutions impacted by this guidance are prepared for the examinations. Many of the fraud tools in the marketplace, particularly those that are used to authenticate individuals were deployed as point-solutions. Few support the need for a feedback loop to identify vulnerabilities, or the ability to employ a risk-based, “layered” approach that the guidance is seeking. _____________ This is the last of our five-part series but we're happy to answer more questions as we know you need to know how to prepare for the January 2012 deadline.
This is fourth question in our five-part series on the FFIEC guidance and what it means Internet banking. Check back each day this week for more Q&A on what you need to know and how to prepare for the January 2012 deadline. If you missed parts 1-3, there's no time to waste, check them out here: Go to question one: What does “multi-factor” authentication actually mean? Go to question two: Who does this guidance affect? And does it affect each type of credit grantor/ lender differently? Go to question three: What does “layered security” actually mean? Today's Q&A: What will the regulation do to help mitigate fraud risk in the near-term, and long-term? The FFIEC’s guidance will encourage financial institutions to re-examine their processes. The guidance is an important reinforcement of several critical ideas: Fraud losses undermine faith in our financial system by exposing vulnerabilities in the way we exchange goods, services and currencies. It is important that members of the financial services community understand their role in protecting our economy from fraud. Fraud is not the result of a static set of tactics employed by criminals. Fraud tactics evolve constantly and the tools that combat them have to evolve as well. Considering the impact that technology is having on commerce, it is more important than ever to review the processes that we once thought made our businesses “safe.” The architecture and flexibility of fraud prevention “capabilities” is a weapon unto itself. The guidance provides a perspective on why it is important to be able to understand the risk and to respond accordingly. At the end of the day, the guidance is less about a need to take a specific action—and more about the “capability” to recognize when those actions are needed, and how they should be structured so that high-risk actions are met with strong and sophisticated defenses. _____________ Look for part five, the final in our series tomorrow.
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With the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show set to kickoff later this week, it seemed fitting to explore how the shifting dynamics of the used vehicle market might impact dealers and buyers over the coming year. Shedding light on some of the registration and finance trends, as well as purchasing behaviors, can help dealers and manufacturers stay ahead of the curve. And just like that, the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report was born. As I was sifting through the data, one of the trends that stood out to me was the neck-and-neck race between Millennials and Gen X for supremacy in the used vehicle market. Five years ago, in 2019, Millennials were responsible for 33.3% of used retail registrations, followed by Gen X (29.5%) and Baby Boomers (26.8%). Since then, Baby Boomers have gradually fallen off, and Gen X continues to close the already minuscule gap. Through October 2024, Millennials accounted for 31.6%, while Gen X accounted for 30.4%. But trends can turn on a dime if the last year offers any indication. Over the last rolling 12 months (October 2023-October 2024), Gen X (31.4%) accounted for the majority of used vehicle registrations compared to Millennials (30.9%). Of course, the data is still close, and what 2025 holds is anyone’s guess, but understanding even the smallest changes in market share and consumer purchasing behaviors can help dealers and manufacturers adapt and navigate the road ahead. Although there are similarities between Millennials and Gen X, there are drastic differences, including motivations and preferences. Dealers and manufacturers should engage them on a generational level. What are they buying? Some of the data might not come as a surprise but it’s a good reminder that consumers are in different phases of life, meaning priorities change. Over the last rolling 12 months, Millennials over-indexed on used vans, accounting for more than one-third of registrations. Meanwhile, Gen X over-indexed on used trucks, making up nearly one-third of registrations, and Gen Z over-indexed on cars (accounting for 17.1% of used car registrations compared to 14.6% of overall used vehicle registrations). This isn’t surprising. Many Millennials have young families and may need extra space and functionality, while Gen Xers might prefer the versatility of the pickup truck—the ability to use it for work and personal use. On the other hand, Gen Zers are still early in their careers and gravitate towards the affordability and efficiency of smaller cars. Interestingly, although used electric vehicles only make up a small portion of used retail registrations (less than 1%), Millennials made up nearly 40% over the last rolling 12 months, followed by Gen X (32.2%) and Baby Boomers (15.8%). The market at a bird’s eye view Pulling back a bit on the used vehicle landscape, over the last rolling 12 months, CUVs/SUVs (38.9%) and cars (36.6%) accounted for the majority of used retail registrations. And nearly nine-in-ten used registrations were non-luxury vehicles. What’s more, ICE vehicles made up 88.5% of used retail registrations over the same period, while alternative-fuel vehicles (not including BEVs) made up 10.7% and electric vehicles made up 0.8%. At the finance level, we’re seeing the market shift ever so slightly. Since the beginning of the pandemic, one of the constant narratives in the industry has been the rising cost of owning a vehicle, both new and used. And while the average loan amount for a used non-luxury vehicle has gone up over the past five years, we’re seeing a gradual decline since 2022. In 2019, the average loan amount was $22,636 and spiked $29,983 in 2022. In 2024, the average loan amount reached $28,895. Much of the decline in average loan amounts can be attributed to the resurgence of new vehicle inventory, which has resulted in lower used values. With new leasing climbing over the past several quarters, we may see more late-model used inventory hit the market in the next few years, which will most certainly impact used financing. The used market moving forward Relying on historical data and trends can help dealers and manufacturers prepare and navigate the road ahead. Used vehicles will always fit the need for shoppers looking for their next vehicle; understanding some market trends will help ensure dealers and manufacturers can be at the forefront of helping those shoppers. For more information on the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report, visit Experian booth #627 at the NADA Show in New Orleans, January 23-26.
The automotive industry is constantly changing. Shifting consumer demands and preferences, as well as dynamic economic factors, make the need for data-driven insights more important than ever. As we head into the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show this week, we wanted to explore some of the trends in the used vehicle market in our Special Report: State of the Automotive Finance Market Report. Packed with valuable insights and the latest trends, we’ll take a deep dive into the multi-faceted used vehicle market and better understand how consumers are financing used vehicles. 9+ model years grow Although late-model vehicles tend to represent much of the used vehicle finance market, we were surprised by the gradual growth of 9+ model year (MY) vehicles. In 2019, 9+MY vehicles accounted for 26.6% of the used vehicle sales. Since then, we’ve seen year-over-year growth, culminating with 9+MY vehicles making up a little more than 30% of used vehicle sales in 2024. Perhaps more interesting though, is who is financing these vehicles. Five years ago, prime and super prime borrowers represented 42.5% of 9+MY vehicles, however, in 2024, those consumers accounted for nearly 54% of 9+MY originations. Among the more popular 9+MY segments, CUVs and SUVs comprised 36.9% of sales in 2024, up from 35.2% in 2023, while cars went from 44.3% to 42.9% year-over-year and pickup trucks decreased from 15.9% to 15.6%. 2024 highlights by used vehicle age group To get a better sense of the overall used market, the segments were broken down into three age groups—9+MY, 4-8MY, and current +3MY—and to no surprise, the finance attributes vary widely. While we’ve seen the return of new vehicle inventory drive used vehicle values lower, it could be a sign that consumers are continuing to seek out affordable options that fit their lifestyle. In fact, the average loan amount for a 9+MY vehicle was $19,376 in 2024, compared to $24,198 for a vehicle between 4-8 years old and $32,381 for +3MY vehicle. Plus, more than 55% of 9+MY vehicles have monthly payments under $400. That’s not an insignificant number for people shopping with the monthly payment in mind. In 2024, the average monthly payment for a used vehicle that falls under current+3MY was $608. Meanwhile, 4-8MY vehicles came in at an average monthly payment of $498, and 9+MY vehicles had a $431 monthly payment. Taking a deeper dive into average loan amounts based on specific vehicle types—as of 2024, current +3MY cars came in at $28,721, followed by CUVs/SUVs ($31,589) and pickup trucks ($40,618). As for 4-8MY vehicles, cars came in with a loan amount of $22,013, CUVs/SUVs were at $23,133, and pickup trucks at $31,114. Used 9+MY cars had a loan amount of $19,506, CUVs/SUVs came in at $17,350, and pickup trucks at $22,369. With interest rates remaining top of mind for most consumers as we’ve seen them increase in recent years, understanding the growth from 2019-2024 can give a holistic picture of how the market has shifted over time. For instance, the average interest rate for a used current+3MY vehicle was 8.0% in 2019 and grew to 10.2% in 2024, the average rate for a 4-8MY vehicle went from 10.3% to 12.9%, and the average rate for a 9+MY vehicle increased from 11.4% to 13.8% in the same time frame. Looking ahead to the used vehicle market It’s important for automotive professionals to understand and leverage the data of the used market as it can provide valuable insights into trending consumer behavior and pricing patterns. While we don’t exactly know where the market will stand in a few years—adapting strategies based on historical data and anticipating shifts can help professionals better prepare for both challenges and opportunities in the future. As used vehicles remain a staple piece of the automotive industry, making informed decisions and optimizing inventory management will ensure agility as the market continues to shift. For more information, visit us at the Experian booth (#627) during the NADA Show in New Orleans from January 23-26.
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typesetting, remaining essentially unchanged. It was popularised in the 1960s with the release of Letraset sheets containing Lorem Ipsum passages, and more recently with desktop publishing software like Aldus PageMaker including versions of Lorem Ipsum.