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Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock, you are undoubtedly aware that the 4G ship has sailed into port. The 4G network is a completely different technology as compared to 3G, the network it is replacing. 3G was fast, but 4G will set the world on fire. It’s kind of like the difference between a farm tractor and a Lamborghini. Rather than just being able to check email and (slowly) surf the net (as with 3G), 4G users will be able to watch live television and rip through online content like nobody’s business. So what does this mean for communications companies? Change device, change carrier? The big question for wireless providers is whether or not customers will change carriers as they upgrade to new, 4G-supported devices. The simple answer is, it depends. Customers who are currently under contract will not likely jump ship for the simple fact that it will cost too much. For example, let’s say I want to upgrade five devices. I can probably buy these less expensively by changing carriers (due to attractive introductory offers). However, if I have to cancel three contracts prior to term end to do it, it may cost me upwards of $1,000—probably more than I can save by changing carriers. For customers who are at the end of a contract term, upgrading to 4G presents a golden opportunity to change providers, if that’s something they’ve been considering. Wireless providers will obviously need to contact these customers well before their contracts are up and make them an offer they simply can’t refuse. Other concerns for wireless providers Obviously, key players in the market have invested a significant amount of money to develop the 4G infrastructure, and sooner or later they’re going to want to recoup those costs. Introductory offers will motivate many to upgrade to 4G, but will all these new/upgrade customers be able to pay the higher monthly bills that will likely come with their new 4G devices? While locking in all these new contracts will positively affect sales quotas, it will be more important than ever to assess these customers’ cash flow situations and credit-worthiness, so they don’t end up negatively affecting the bottom line. Concerns for other telecommunications companies One other interesting aspect to consider is this: With a 4G device, consumers can effectively create their own “hot spot.” So the question is, just as many people are dropping their landlines in favor of wireless, will 4G device users decide to drop their Internet providers? How about their cable television service? I intend to revisit this topic in 3-6 months to see whether early 4G adopters are in fact jumping to different carriers and/or dropping other services. What do you think might happen as 4G becomes the new normal? Leave a comment and share your thoughts.
With cell phones overtaking landlines as the new “home phone” for many consumers, things could get tricky for credit card holders and other debtors as well as the creditors who need to reach them. The Federal Communications Commission wants to limit the ability of collectors to use autodialers to call cell phones. But the unintended consequences could make credit more costly as well as harder to get for younger customers. The FCC’s proposed revision At issue is a proposed FCC action to revise the Telephone Consumer Protection Act (TCPA) of 1991 in an effort to align its regulations with Federal Trade Commission rules. The do-not-call rules already restrict telemarketers from calling cell phones. But the new FCC revisions would cover any call to a cell phone, including legitimate calls to collect a debt, notify a customer of a payment due, or request additional information to complete an application. Confusion about consent Businesses are puzzled at how compliance might work under the new rule. If approved, the proposed rule would no longer permit creditors to call a customer’s cell phone when the cell number was filled in on an application. The proposed rule changes the definition of what constitutes prior consent. Just having a phone number on an application wouldn’t be sufficient. Companies would be required to have written permission, such as “I consent to calling my cell phone when there’s a problem…” When a cell phone is the only phone This raises new issues. For instance, if a consumer needs to be contacted, but the company doesn’t know the cell phone is the only line, the company could still be liable for calling it. What now? The good news is that this issue hasn’t moved anywhere over the last year. The rule was proposed in March of 2010 and comments were accepted up to last May, but nothing has happened since. From a regulatory perspective, the level of industry concern over the FCC’s proposed rule warrants some caution. While some form of revision could still go forward, the modification may not be in line with FTC rules. Are you concerned about the FCC’s proposed cell phone rule? Let us know if you’ve developed contingencies in case it’s approved. We’ll be sure to keep you up to date on any new developments, so watch this space for updates. For further reading on this issue: FCC Cell Phone Rule Would Raise Risk Debt Collectors Seek Right to 'Robocall' Cell Phones
Time certainly does fly — I can’t believe it’s been more than a month since TRMA’s Spring Conference in Las Vegas! Those of us who participated from Experian Decision Analytics had a great time interacting with all the telecommunications risk management professionals who attended, and the feedback we received on our presentations was overwhelmingly positive. Sharing our thoughts We had the occasion to get together recently to compare notes about the conference, and wanted to share a few observations with you: Attendees who participated in Jim Nowell’s SimTel business game were EXTREMELY engaged. (Click here to see photos!) A number of participants told Jim they’d like to have him run the game for their entire team back at the office. Greg Carmean reported that there was a lot of interest focused on credit consortiums, especially concerning who is participating in them within the telecommunications space. Linda Haran noted that attendees were curious about where jobs would be created (largely in the private sector) and where foreclosure activity would be the strongest (CA, AZ, NV and MI as expected, but increases have been observed in TX, WA, IL, GA and CO). Jeff Bernstein found that unemployment remains a concern, though increasing consumer confidence and spending seem to be moving us toward a slow but steady recovery. Collectability scores were also a big topic of interest. Attendees wanted to better understand whether these scores represent a consumer’s ability to pay or their propensity to pay. Finally, regulatory requirements continue to be an area of concern, especially surrounding the Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA). Share your thoughts! If you attended TRMA’s Spring Conference, we’d love to hear from you. Please share your thoughts and impressions from the conference by commenting on this blog post. All of us at Experian look forward to seeing you at TRMA’s Summer Conference in San Francisco June 28 – 29, 2011.
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With the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show set to kickoff later this week, it seemed fitting to explore how the shifting dynamics of the used vehicle market might impact dealers and buyers over the coming year. Shedding light on some of the registration and finance trends, as well as purchasing behaviors, can help dealers and manufacturers stay ahead of the curve. And just like that, the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report was born. As I was sifting through the data, one of the trends that stood out to me was the neck-and-neck race between Millennials and Gen X for supremacy in the used vehicle market. Five years ago, in 2019, Millennials were responsible for 33.3% of used retail registrations, followed by Gen X (29.5%) and Baby Boomers (26.8%). Since then, Baby Boomers have gradually fallen off, and Gen X continues to close the already minuscule gap. Through October 2024, Millennials accounted for 31.6%, while Gen X accounted for 30.4%. But trends can turn on a dime if the last year offers any indication. Over the last rolling 12 months (October 2023-October 2024), Gen X (31.4%) accounted for the majority of used vehicle registrations compared to Millennials (30.9%). Of course, the data is still close, and what 2025 holds is anyone’s guess, but understanding even the smallest changes in market share and consumer purchasing behaviors can help dealers and manufacturers adapt and navigate the road ahead. Although there are similarities between Millennials and Gen X, there are drastic differences, including motivations and preferences. Dealers and manufacturers should engage them on a generational level. What are they buying? Some of the data might not come as a surprise but it’s a good reminder that consumers are in different phases of life, meaning priorities change. Over the last rolling 12 months, Millennials over-indexed on used vans, accounting for more than one-third of registrations. Meanwhile, Gen X over-indexed on used trucks, making up nearly one-third of registrations, and Gen Z over-indexed on cars (accounting for 17.1% of used car registrations compared to 14.6% of overall used vehicle registrations). This isn’t surprising. Many Millennials have young families and may need extra space and functionality, while Gen Xers might prefer the versatility of the pickup truck—the ability to use it for work and personal use. On the other hand, Gen Zers are still early in their careers and gravitate towards the affordability and efficiency of smaller cars. Interestingly, although used electric vehicles only make up a small portion of used retail registrations (less than 1%), Millennials made up nearly 40% over the last rolling 12 months, followed by Gen X (32.2%) and Baby Boomers (15.8%). The market at a bird’s eye view Pulling back a bit on the used vehicle landscape, over the last rolling 12 months, CUVs/SUVs (38.9%) and cars (36.6%) accounted for the majority of used retail registrations. And nearly nine-in-ten used registrations were non-luxury vehicles. What’s more, ICE vehicles made up 88.5% of used retail registrations over the same period, while alternative-fuel vehicles (not including BEVs) made up 10.7% and electric vehicles made up 0.8%. At the finance level, we’re seeing the market shift ever so slightly. Since the beginning of the pandemic, one of the constant narratives in the industry has been the rising cost of owning a vehicle, both new and used. And while the average loan amount for a used non-luxury vehicle has gone up over the past five years, we’re seeing a gradual decline since 2022. In 2019, the average loan amount was $22,636 and spiked $29,983 in 2022. In 2024, the average loan amount reached $28,895. Much of the decline in average loan amounts can be attributed to the resurgence of new vehicle inventory, which has resulted in lower used values. With new leasing climbing over the past several quarters, we may see more late-model used inventory hit the market in the next few years, which will most certainly impact used financing. The used market moving forward Relying on historical data and trends can help dealers and manufacturers prepare and navigate the road ahead. Used vehicles will always fit the need for shoppers looking for their next vehicle; understanding some market trends will help ensure dealers and manufacturers can be at the forefront of helping those shoppers. For more information on the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report, visit Experian booth #627 at the NADA Show in New Orleans, January 23-26.
The automotive industry is constantly changing. Shifting consumer demands and preferences, as well as dynamic economic factors, make the need for data-driven insights more important than ever. As we head into the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show this week, we wanted to explore some of the trends in the used vehicle market in our Special Report: State of the Automotive Finance Market Report. Packed with valuable insights and the latest trends, we’ll take a deep dive into the multi-faceted used vehicle market and better understand how consumers are financing used vehicles. 9+ model years grow Although late-model vehicles tend to represent much of the used vehicle finance market, we were surprised by the gradual growth of 9+ model year (MY) vehicles. In 2019, 9+MY vehicles accounted for 26.6% of the used vehicle sales. Since then, we’ve seen year-over-year growth, culminating with 9+MY vehicles making up a little more than 30% of used vehicle sales in 2024. Perhaps more interesting though, is who is financing these vehicles. Five years ago, prime and super prime borrowers represented 42.5% of 9+MY vehicles, however, in 2024, those consumers accounted for nearly 54% of 9+MY originations. Among the more popular 9+MY segments, CUVs and SUVs comprised 36.9% of sales in 2024, up from 35.2% in 2023, while cars went from 44.3% to 42.9% year-over-year and pickup trucks decreased from 15.9% to 15.6%. 2024 highlights by used vehicle age group To get a better sense of the overall used market, the segments were broken down into three age groups—9+MY, 4-8MY, and current +3MY—and to no surprise, the finance attributes vary widely. While we’ve seen the return of new vehicle inventory drive used vehicle values lower, it could be a sign that consumers are continuing to seek out affordable options that fit their lifestyle. In fact, the average loan amount for a 9+MY vehicle was $19,376 in 2024, compared to $24,198 for a vehicle between 4-8 years old and $32,381 for +3MY vehicle. Plus, more than 55% of 9+MY vehicles have monthly payments under $400. That’s not an insignificant number for people shopping with the monthly payment in mind. In 2024, the average monthly payment for a used vehicle that falls under current+3MY was $608. Meanwhile, 4-8MY vehicles came in at an average monthly payment of $498, and 9+MY vehicles had a $431 monthly payment. Taking a deeper dive into average loan amounts based on specific vehicle types—as of 2024, current +3MY cars came in at $28,721, followed by CUVs/SUVs ($31,589) and pickup trucks ($40,618). As for 4-8MY vehicles, cars came in with a loan amount of $22,013, CUVs/SUVs were at $23,133, and pickup trucks at $31,114. Used 9+MY cars had a loan amount of $19,506, CUVs/SUVs came in at $17,350, and pickup trucks at $22,369. With interest rates remaining top of mind for most consumers as we’ve seen them increase in recent years, understanding the growth from 2019-2024 can give a holistic picture of how the market has shifted over time. For instance, the average interest rate for a used current+3MY vehicle was 8.0% in 2019 and grew to 10.2% in 2024, the average rate for a 4-8MY vehicle went from 10.3% to 12.9%, and the average rate for a 9+MY vehicle increased from 11.4% to 13.8% in the same time frame. Looking ahead to the used vehicle market It’s important for automotive professionals to understand and leverage the data of the used market as it can provide valuable insights into trending consumer behavior and pricing patterns. While we don’t exactly know where the market will stand in a few years—adapting strategies based on historical data and anticipating shifts can help professionals better prepare for both challenges and opportunities in the future. As used vehicles remain a staple piece of the automotive industry, making informed decisions and optimizing inventory management will ensure agility as the market continues to shift. For more information, visit us at the Experian booth (#627) during the NADA Show in New Orleans from January 23-26.
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typesetting, remaining essentially unchanged. It was popularised in the 1960s with the release of Letraset sheets containing Lorem Ipsum passages, and more recently with desktop publishing software like Aldus PageMaker including versions of Lorem Ipsum.