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of the printing and typesetting industry. Lorem Ipsum has been the industry’s standard dummy text ever since the 1500s, when an unknown printer took a galley of type and scrambled it to make a type specimen book. It has survived not only five centuries, but also the leap into electronic typesetting, remaining essentially unchanged. It was popularised in the 1960s with the release of Letraset sheets containing Lorem Ipsum passages, and more recently with desktop publishing software like Aldus PageMaker including versions of Lorem Ipsum
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— by, Andrew Gulledge One of the quickest and easiest ways to reduce fraud in your portfolio is to incorporate question weighting into your out of wallet question strategy. To continue the use of knowledge based authentication without question weighting is to assign a point value of 100 points to each question. This is somewhat arbitrary (and a bit sloppy) when we know that certain questions consistently perform better than others. So if a fraudster gets 3 easier questions right, and 1 harder question wrong they will have an easier time passing your authentication process without question weighting. If, on the other hand, you adopt question weighting as part of your overall risk based authentication approach, that same fraudster would score much worse on the same KBA session. The 1 question that they got wrong would have cost them a lot of points, and the 3 easier questions they got right wouldn’t have given them as many points. Question weighting based on known fraud trends is more punitive for the fraudsters. Let’s say the easier questions were worth 50 points each, and the harder question was worth 150 points. Without question weighting, the fraudster would have scored 75% (300 out of 400 points). With question weighting, the fraudster would have scored 50% (150 out of 300 points correct). Your decisioning strategy might well have failed him with a score of 50, but passed him with a score of 75. Question weighting will often kick the fraudsters into the fail regions of your decisioning strategy, which is exactly what risk based authentication is all about. Consult with your fraud account management representative to see if you are making the most out of your KBA experience with the intelligent use of question weighting. It is a no-brainer way to improve your overall fraud prevention, even if you keep your overall pass rate the same. Question weighting is an easy way to squeeze more value of your knowledge based authentication tool.
— by, Andrew GulledgeThe intelligent use of question weighting in KBA should be a no-brainer for anyone using out of wallet questions. Here’s the deal: some authentication questions consistently give fraudsters a harder time than other questions. Why not capitalize on that knowledge?Question weighting is where each question type has a certain number of points associated with it. So a question that fraudsters have an easier time with might be worth only 50 points, while a question that fraudsters often struggle with might be worth 150 points. So the KBA score ends up being the total points correct divided by the total possible points. The point is to make the entire KBA session more punitive for the bad guys.Fraud analytics are absolutely essential to the use of intelligent question weighting. While fraud prevention vendors should have recommended question weights as part of their fraud best practices, if you can provide us with as many examples as possible of known fraud that went through the out of wallet questions, we can refine the best practice question weighting model to work better for your specific population.Even if we keep your pass rate the same, we can lower your fraud rate. On the other hand, we can up your pass rate while keeping the fraud rate consistent. So whether your aim it to reduce your false positive rate (i.e., pass more of the good consumers) or to reduce your fraud rate (i.e., fail more of the fraudsters), or some combination of the two, question weighting will help you get there.
By: Staci Baker As the economy has been hit by the hardest recession since the Great Depression, many people wonder how and when it will recover. And, once we start to see recovery, will consumer credit return to what it once was? In a recent Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report quarterly webinar, 70% of the respondents in a survey said they believe consumer debt will return to pre-2008 levels. Clearly, many believe that consumer spending and borrowing will return, despite the fact that consumer credit card borrowing recently declined for the 24th straight month*. Assuming that this optimism is valid, what can credit card lenders do to evaluate the risk levels of potential customers as they attempt to grow their portfolios? For lenders, determining who needs credit, as well as whom to lend to in this economic environment, can be quite challenging. However, there are many tools available to assist lenders in assessing credit risk and growing their portfolio. Many lenders look at a consumer’s credit score, such as the tri-bureau VantageScore, to evaluate their credit worthiness. By utilizing an individual’s VantageScore, a lender is able to determine potential customer risk levels. Another way to evaluate a consumer’s credit worthiness is to evaluate a population using credit attributes. Based on the attributes a lender is looking for in their portfolio, they can see improvement in evaluating risk prediction in their portfolio using pre-determined attributes, especially those specifically designed for the credit card industry. There are also models that can help lenders predict when a consumer is likely to be in the market for a new loan or account. Experian’s In the Market Models provide lenders with product-specific segmentation tools that can be combined with risk scores to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of their offers. To identify the optimal cross-sell and line management decisions based on an individual customer’s risk score and potential value, a lender can also utilize optimization tools. Optimization, combined with a viable risk management strategy, can assist a lender to achieve a healthy portfolio growth in a highly constrained environment. Although lenders will need to determine the best method to meet their objectives, these are just a few of the many tools available that will assist them in correctly growing their lending portfolios. ____________________ * http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2010-10-07-consumer-credit_N.htm
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With the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show set to kickoff later this week, it seemed fitting to explore how the shifting dynamics of the used vehicle market might impact dealers and buyers over the coming year. Shedding light on some of the registration and finance trends, as well as purchasing behaviors, can help dealers and manufacturers stay ahead of the curve. And just like that, the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report was born. As I was sifting through the data, one of the trends that stood out to me was the neck-and-neck race between Millennials and Gen X for supremacy in the used vehicle market. Five years ago, in 2019, Millennials were responsible for 33.3% of used retail registrations, followed by Gen X (29.5%) and Baby Boomers (26.8%). Since then, Baby Boomers have gradually fallen off, and Gen X continues to close the already minuscule gap. Through October 2024, Millennials accounted for 31.6%, while Gen X accounted for 30.4%. But trends can turn on a dime if the last year offers any indication. Over the last rolling 12 months (October 2023-October 2024), Gen X (31.4%) accounted for the majority of used vehicle registrations compared to Millennials (30.9%). Of course, the data is still close, and what 2025 holds is anyone’s guess, but understanding even the smallest changes in market share and consumer purchasing behaviors can help dealers and manufacturers adapt and navigate the road ahead. Although there are similarities between Millennials and Gen X, there are drastic differences, including motivations and preferences. Dealers and manufacturers should engage them on a generational level. What are they buying? Some of the data might not come as a surprise but it’s a good reminder that consumers are in different phases of life, meaning priorities change. Over the last rolling 12 months, Millennials over-indexed on used vans, accounting for more than one-third of registrations. Meanwhile, Gen X over-indexed on used trucks, making up nearly one-third of registrations, and Gen Z over-indexed on cars (accounting for 17.1% of used car registrations compared to 14.6% of overall used vehicle registrations). This isn’t surprising. Many Millennials have young families and may need extra space and functionality, while Gen Xers might prefer the versatility of the pickup truck—the ability to use it for work and personal use. On the other hand, Gen Zers are still early in their careers and gravitate towards the affordability and efficiency of smaller cars. Interestingly, although used electric vehicles only make up a small portion of used retail registrations (less than 1%), Millennials made up nearly 40% over the last rolling 12 months, followed by Gen X (32.2%) and Baby Boomers (15.8%). The market at a bird’s eye view Pulling back a bit on the used vehicle landscape, over the last rolling 12 months, CUVs/SUVs (38.9%) and cars (36.6%) accounted for the majority of used retail registrations. And nearly nine-in-ten used registrations were non-luxury vehicles. What’s more, ICE vehicles made up 88.5% of used retail registrations over the same period, while alternative-fuel vehicles (not including BEVs) made up 10.7% and electric vehicles made up 0.8%. At the finance level, we’re seeing the market shift ever so slightly. Since the beginning of the pandemic, one of the constant narratives in the industry has been the rising cost of owning a vehicle, both new and used. And while the average loan amount for a used non-luxury vehicle has gone up over the past five years, we’re seeing a gradual decline since 2022. In 2019, the average loan amount was $22,636 and spiked $29,983 in 2022. In 2024, the average loan amount reached $28,895. Much of the decline in average loan amounts can be attributed to the resurgence of new vehicle inventory, which has resulted in lower used values. With new leasing climbing over the past several quarters, we may see more late-model used inventory hit the market in the next few years, which will most certainly impact used financing. The used market moving forward Relying on historical data and trends can help dealers and manufacturers prepare and navigate the road ahead. Used vehicles will always fit the need for shoppers looking for their next vehicle; understanding some market trends will help ensure dealers and manufacturers can be at the forefront of helping those shoppers. For more information on the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report, visit Experian booth #627 at the NADA Show in New Orleans, January 23-26.
The automotive industry is constantly changing. Shifting consumer demands and preferences, as well as dynamic economic factors, make the need for data-driven insights more important than ever. As we head into the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show this week, we wanted to explore some of the trends in the used vehicle market in our Special Report: State of the Automotive Finance Market Report. Packed with valuable insights and the latest trends, we’ll take a deep dive into the multi-faceted used vehicle market and better understand how consumers are financing used vehicles. 9+ model years grow Although late-model vehicles tend to represent much of the used vehicle finance market, we were surprised by the gradual growth of 9+ model year (MY) vehicles. In 2019, 9+MY vehicles accounted for 26.6% of the used vehicle sales. Since then, we’ve seen year-over-year growth, culminating with 9+MY vehicles making up a little more than 30% of used vehicle sales in 2024. Perhaps more interesting though, is who is financing these vehicles. Five years ago, prime and super prime borrowers represented 42.5% of 9+MY vehicles, however, in 2024, those consumers accounted for nearly 54% of 9+MY originations. Among the more popular 9+MY segments, CUVs and SUVs comprised 36.9% of sales in 2024, up from 35.2% in 2023, while cars went from 44.3% to 42.9% year-over-year and pickup trucks decreased from 15.9% to 15.6%. 2024 highlights by used vehicle age group To get a better sense of the overall used market, the segments were broken down into three age groups—9+MY, 4-8MY, and current +3MY—and to no surprise, the finance attributes vary widely. While we’ve seen the return of new vehicle inventory drive used vehicle values lower, it could be a sign that consumers are continuing to seek out affordable options that fit their lifestyle. In fact, the average loan amount for a 9+MY vehicle was $19,376 in 2024, compared to $24,198 for a vehicle between 4-8 years old and $32,381 for +3MY vehicle. Plus, more than 55% of 9+MY vehicles have monthly payments under $400. That’s not an insignificant number for people shopping with the monthly payment in mind. In 2024, the average monthly payment for a used vehicle that falls under current+3MY was $608. Meanwhile, 4-8MY vehicles came in at an average monthly payment of $498, and 9+MY vehicles had a $431 monthly payment. Taking a deeper dive into average loan amounts based on specific vehicle types—as of 2024, current +3MY cars came in at $28,721, followed by CUVs/SUVs ($31,589) and pickup trucks ($40,618). As for 4-8MY vehicles, cars came in with a loan amount of $22,013, CUVs/SUVs were at $23,133, and pickup trucks at $31,114. Used 9+MY cars had a loan amount of $19,506, CUVs/SUVs came in at $17,350, and pickup trucks at $22,369. With interest rates remaining top of mind for most consumers as we’ve seen them increase in recent years, understanding the growth from 2019-2024 can give a holistic picture of how the market has shifted over time. For instance, the average interest rate for a used current+3MY vehicle was 8.0% in 2019 and grew to 10.2% in 2024, the average rate for a 4-8MY vehicle went from 10.3% to 12.9%, and the average rate for a 9+MY vehicle increased from 11.4% to 13.8% in the same time frame. Looking ahead to the used vehicle market It’s important for automotive professionals to understand and leverage the data of the used market as it can provide valuable insights into trending consumer behavior and pricing patterns. While we don’t exactly know where the market will stand in a few years—adapting strategies based on historical data and anticipating shifts can help professionals better prepare for both challenges and opportunities in the future. As used vehicles remain a staple piece of the automotive industry, making informed decisions and optimizing inventory management will ensure agility as the market continues to shift. For more information, visit us at the Experian booth (#627) during the NADA Show in New Orleans from January 23-26.
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typesetting, remaining essentially unchanged. It was popularised in the 1960s with the release of Letraset sheets containing Lorem Ipsum passages, and more recently with desktop publishing software like Aldus PageMaker including versions of Lorem Ipsum.