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Experian recently contributed to a TSYS whitepaper focused on the various threats associated with first party fraud. I think the paper does a good job at summarizing the problem, and points out some very important strategies that can be employed to help both prevent first party fraud losses and detect those already in an institution’s active and collections account populations. I’d urge you to have a look at this paper as you begin asking the right questions within your own organization. Watch here The bad news is that first party fraud may currently account for up to 20 percent of credit charge-offs. The good news is that scoring models (using a combination of credit attributes and identity element analysis) targeted at various first party fraud schemes such as Bust Out, Never Pay, and even Synthetic Identity are quite effective in all phases of the customer lifecycle. Appropriate implementation of these models, usually involving coordinated decisioning strategies across both fraud and credit policies, can stem many losses either at account acquisition, or at least early enough in an account management stage, to substantially reduce average fraud balances. The key is to prevent these accounts from ending up in collections queues where they’ll never have any chance of actually being collected upon. A traditional customer information program and identity theft prevention program (associated, for example with the Red Flags Rule) will often fail to identify first party fraud, as these are founded in identity element verification and validation, checks that often ‘pass’ when applied to first party fraudsters.

By: Wendy Greenawalt Large financial institutions have acknowledged for some time that taking a more consumer-centric versus product-centric approach can be a successful strategy for an organization. However, implementing such a strategy can be difficult, because inherently organizations want to promote a specific product for one reason or another. With the current economic unrest, organizations are looking for ways to improve customer loyalty with their most profitable and lowest risk customers. They are also looking for ways to improve offers to consumers to provide segment of one decisioning, while satisfying organizational goals. Customer management, and specifically cross-sell or up-sell strategies, are a great example of where organizations can implement what I call “segment of one decisioning”.  In essence, this refers to identifying the best possible decision or outcome for a specific consumer when given multiple offers, scenarios and objectives. Marketers strive to identify the best strategies to maximize decision-making, while minimizing costs. For many, this takes the form of models and complex strategy trees or spreadsheets to identify the ideal offering for a segment of consumers. While this approach is effective, algorithm-based decisioning processes exist that can help organizations identify the optimal decisioning strategies, while considering all possible options at a consumers level. By leveraging an optimization tool, organizations can expand the decision process by considering all variables and all alternatives to find the most cost effective, most-likely-to-be-successful strategies. By optimizing decisions, marketers can determine the ideal offer, while quantifying the ROI and adhering to budgetary or other campaign constraints. Many organizations are once again focusing on account growth and building strategies to implement in the near future. With the limited pool of qualified candidates and increased competition, it is more important than ever that each consumer offer be the best to increase response rates, achieve portfolio growth goals and build a profitable portfolio.

By: Kennis Wong In the last entry, I mentioned that consumers’ participation in protecting their own identity information is an important aspect of an identity theft prevention program to minimize fraud loss.  Large financial institutions are starting to take charge in educating their customers, but others are having a hard time investing in such initiatives. I do understand that it is difficult to establish a direct linkage of revenue and positive return on investment for this type of activities. Business may view customer education of identity protection as a public service but not a necessity. After all, if my customer loses his identity information, it doesn’t necessarily mean that identity fraud will happen to my very own organization. But educating customers about identity protection and fraud trends can be a marketing tool and can increase customer loyalty, in additions to actual fraud prevention. Although consumers may not be aware of all the precautions they can take to protect their identity, undoubtedly identity theft is a hot topic in the media today. If there are two banks providing about the same service, but one of them goes an extra mile to provide me education on preventing identity theft, I would go with that bank. Also, as a financial institution, if my customers understand identity protection more, they would understand why I am putting some procedure in place and would be glad to comply with them. For example, they would be more patient when spending another minute in answering knowledge-based authentication questions, so that for their own protection, the bank can assure they are the true identity owners. Consumers can also actively monitor their credit report, whether through the bank or through other third party vendors. When consumers receive fraud alert from activities that could be a result of identity theft, they can actively contact the financial institutions about the situation. The sooner the identity fraud is discovered, the better off for both the consumers and the businesses.

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With the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show set to kickoff later this week, it seemed fitting to explore how the shifting dynamics of the used vehicle market might impact dealers and buyers over the coming year. Shedding light on some of the registration and finance trends, as well as purchasing behaviors, can help dealers and manufacturers stay ahead of the curve. And just like that, the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report was born. As I was sifting through the data, one of the trends that stood out to me was the neck-and-neck race between Millennials and Gen X for supremacy in the used vehicle market. Five years ago, in 2019, Millennials were responsible for 33.3% of used retail registrations, followed by Gen X (29.5%) and Baby Boomers (26.8%). Since then, Baby Boomers have gradually fallen off, and Gen X continues to close the already minuscule gap. Through October 2024, Millennials accounted for 31.6%, while Gen X accounted for 30.4%. But trends can turn on a dime if the last year offers any indication. Over the last rolling 12 months (October 2023-October 2024), Gen X (31.4%) accounted for the majority of used vehicle registrations compared to Millennials (30.9%). Of course, the data is still close, and what 2025 holds is anyone’s guess, but understanding even the smallest changes in market share and consumer purchasing behaviors can help dealers and manufacturers adapt and navigate the road ahead. Although there are similarities between Millennials and Gen X, there are drastic differences, including motivations and preferences. Dealers and manufacturers should engage them on a generational level. What are they buying? Some of the data might not come as a surprise but it’s a good reminder that consumers are in different phases of life, meaning priorities change. Over the last rolling 12 months, Millennials over-indexed on used vans, accounting for more than one-third of registrations. Meanwhile, Gen X over-indexed on used trucks, making up nearly one-third of registrations, and Gen Z over-indexed on cars (accounting for 17.1% of used car registrations compared to 14.6% of overall used vehicle registrations). This isn’t surprising. Many Millennials have young families and may need extra space and functionality, while Gen Xers might prefer the versatility of the pickup truck—the ability to use it for work and personal use. On the other hand, Gen Zers are still early in their careers and gravitate towards the affordability and efficiency of smaller cars. Interestingly, although used electric vehicles only make up a small portion of used retail registrations (less than 1%), Millennials made up nearly 40% over the last rolling 12 months, followed by Gen X (32.2%) and Baby Boomers (15.8%). The market at a bird’s eye view Pulling back a bit on the used vehicle landscape, over the last rolling 12 months, CUVs/SUVs (38.9%) and cars (36.6%) accounted for the majority of used retail registrations. And nearly nine-in-ten used registrations were non-luxury vehicles. What’s more, ICE vehicles made up 88.5% of used retail registrations over the same period, while alternative-fuel vehicles (not including BEVs) made up 10.7% and electric vehicles made up 0.8%. At the finance level, we’re seeing the market shift ever so slightly. Since the beginning of the pandemic, one of the constant narratives in the industry has been the rising cost of owning a vehicle, both new and used. And while the average loan amount for a used non-luxury vehicle has gone up over the past five years, we’re seeing a gradual decline since 2022. In 2019, the average loan amount was $22,636 and spiked $29,983 in 2022. In 2024, the average loan amount reached $28,895. Much of the decline in average loan amounts can be attributed to the resurgence of new vehicle inventory, which has resulted in lower used values. With new leasing climbing over the past several quarters, we may see more late-model used inventory hit the market in the next few years, which will most certainly impact used financing. The used market moving forward Relying on historical data and trends can help dealers and manufacturers prepare and navigate the road ahead. Used vehicles will always fit the need for shoppers looking for their next vehicle; understanding some market trends will help ensure dealers and manufacturers can be at the forefront of helping those shoppers. For more information on the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report, visit Experian booth #627 at the NADA Show in New Orleans, January 23-26.

The automotive industry is constantly changing. Shifting consumer demands and preferences, as well as dynamic economic factors, make the need for data-driven insights more important than ever. As we head into the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show this week, we wanted to explore some of the trends in the used vehicle market in our Special Report: State of the Automotive Finance Market Report. Packed with valuable insights and the latest trends, we’ll take a deep dive into the multi-faceted used vehicle market and better understand how consumers are financing used vehicles. 9+ model years grow Although late-model vehicles tend to represent much of the used vehicle finance market, we were surprised by the gradual growth of 9+ model year (MY) vehicles. In 2019, 9+MY vehicles accounted for 26.6% of the used vehicle sales. Since then, we’ve seen year-over-year growth, culminating with 9+MY vehicles making up a little more than 30% of used vehicle sales in 2024. Perhaps more interesting though, is who is financing these vehicles. Five years ago, prime and super prime borrowers represented 42.5% of 9+MY vehicles, however, in 2024, those consumers accounted for nearly 54% of 9+MY originations. Among the more popular 9+MY segments, CUVs and SUVs comprised 36.9% of sales in 2024, up from 35.2% in 2023, while cars went from 44.3% to 42.9% year-over-year and pickup trucks decreased from 15.9% to 15.6%. 2024 highlights by used vehicle age group To get a better sense of the overall used market, the segments were broken down into three age groups—9+MY, 4-8MY, and current +3MY—and to no surprise, the finance attributes vary widely. While we’ve seen the return of new vehicle inventory drive used vehicle values lower, it could be a sign that consumers are continuing to seek out affordable options that fit their lifestyle. In fact, the average loan amount for a 9+MY vehicle was $19,376 in 2024, compared to $24,198 for a vehicle between 4-8 years old and $32,381 for +3MY vehicle. Plus, more than 55% of 9+MY vehicles have monthly payments under $400. That’s not an insignificant number for people shopping with the monthly payment in mind. In 2024, the average monthly payment for a used vehicle that falls under current+3MY was $608. Meanwhile, 4-8MY vehicles came in at an average monthly payment of $498, and 9+MY vehicles had a $431 monthly payment. Taking a deeper dive into average loan amounts based on specific vehicle types—as of 2024, current +3MY cars came in at $28,721, followed by CUVs/SUVs ($31,589) and pickup trucks ($40,618). As for 4-8MY vehicles, cars came in with a loan amount of $22,013, CUVs/SUVs were at $23,133, and pickup trucks at $31,114. Used 9+MY cars had a loan amount of $19,506, CUVs/SUVs came in at $17,350, and pickup trucks at $22,369. With interest rates remaining top of mind for most consumers as we’ve seen them increase in recent years, understanding the growth from 2019-2024 can give a holistic picture of how the market has shifted over time. For instance, the average interest rate for a used current+3MY vehicle was 8.0% in 2019 and grew to 10.2% in 2024, the average rate for a 4-8MY vehicle went from 10.3% to 12.9%, and the average rate for a 9+MY vehicle increased from 11.4% to 13.8% in the same time frame. Looking ahead to the used vehicle market It’s important for automotive professionals to understand and leverage the data of the used market as it can provide valuable insights into trending consumer behavior and pricing patterns. While we don’t exactly know where the market will stand in a few years—adapting strategies based on historical data and anticipating shifts can help professionals better prepare for both challenges and opportunities in the future. As used vehicles remain a staple piece of the automotive industry, making informed decisions and optimizing inventory management will ensure agility as the market continues to shift. For more information, visit us at the Experian booth (#627) during the NADA Show in New Orleans from January 23-26.