Full Block Accessibility Test

By: Staci Baker On September 12, 2010, the new Basel III rules were passed in Basel, Switzerland. These new rules aim to increase the liquidity of banks over the next decade, thereby mitigating the risk of bank failures and mergers that transpired during the recent financial crisis. Currently, banks must maintain capital reserves of 4% on their balance sheet to account for enterprise risk. Starting January 1, 2013, banks will be required to progressively increase their capital reserves, known as tier 1 capital, to 4.5%. By the end of 2019, this reserve will need to be 6%.  Banks will also be required to keep an emergency reserve, or “conservation buffer,” of 2.5%. What does this mean for banks? And, what are some tools that banks can use in assessing credit risk? By increasing capital reserves, banks will be more stable in times of economic hardship. The conservation buffer is meant to help absorb losses during times of economic stress, which means banks will be in a better position to maintain economic progress in the most challenging economic circumstances. The capital reserve designated by the Group of Governors and Heads of Supervision is the minimum requirement each bank will be held to. Each bank will need to assess their current risk levels, and run stress tests to ensure they are in a good financial position, and are able to sustain strong financial health during a failing economy. Stress tests should be run for different time intervals, which will allow lenders to assess future losses and to plan capital satisfactoriness accordingly. This type of credit risk analysis is possible through applications such as Moody’s CreditCycle Plus, powered by Experian, that allow for stress testing, and profit and loss forecasting.  These applications will measure future performance of consumer credit portfolios under various economic scenarios, measured against industry benchmarks. ______________ Bank for International Settlements, 9/12/10, http://bis.org/press/p100912.htm

Another consumer protection article in the news recently highlighted some fraud best practices for social networking sites. Click here to read the article. When I say fraud best practices, I mean best practices to minimize fraud and identity theft risk…not best practices for fraudsters. Although I wonder if by advising consumers about new fraud trends and methods, some fraudsters are picking up new tips and tricks? Anyway, many of the suggestions in the article are common sense items that have been making the rounds for some time now: don’t post vacation plans, things that might provide clues to your passwords or secret questions, etc. What I found surprising was that this list of “6 Things You Should Never Reveal on Facebook” still included birth date and place and home address. Are people overly trusting or just simply unaware of the risk of providing personal identifying information out in cyber space, unsecured? The US government has gone to a lot of trouble to protect consumers from identity theft through its issuance of the Red Flags rule and Red Flags guidelines for financial institutions of all types. I work with many clients that are going to large efforts to meet these important goals for fraud and compliance. Not just because the legislation requires it but because they know it is in the best interest of fostering long term and trust-based relationships with their customers. But just as much responsibility lies on us as consumers to protect ourselves. Each individual or family should have their own little identity theft prevention program that includes: guidelines for sharing information on social networking sites, shredding of paper documents with personal data, safe storage of passwords (i.e. not written down by your computer!), and up to date virus and malware protection on their computer.

Anyone keeping tabs on the legal scene would think data breaches are something new, given all of the legislation hitting the floor of Congress, when in reality they have been happening since businesses began saving data. The truth is the average consumer didn’t really think about it until they started to hear about data breaches and fraud trends when California blazed a trail with what is considered to be the “grandma” of data breach laws back in 2002. The California law (CA SB 1386) required entities to report data breaches if a California resident was a record in the breach that included personally identifiable information and met the state’s criteria for breach. One might say that law started it all: data breach reporting, the ability for watchdog tracking, and media coverage – before CA SB 1386 we only saw the tip of the iceberg. There are currently four bills worth watching in Congress right now that could have some significant impact to data breach notification requirements: Senate Bill 139, sponsored by California Sen. Diane Feinstein. The Data Breach Notification Act would cover any agency or business that uses or stores personal identifiable information and make it mandatory that if a breach occurred, the victims would be informed Senate Bill 3579, the Carper-Bennett legislation, entitled the Data Security Act of 2010 applies to financial institutions, retailers and government agencies, and would require these entities to safeguard sensitive information, investigate security breaches and notify consumers when there is a substantial risk of identity theft or account fraud. This bill is aimed to protect consumers and businesses from identity theft and account fraud. Senate Bill 3742, entitled The Data Security and Breach Notification Act of 2010, sponsored by Senators Mark Pryor and Jay Rockefeller would cross industries and requires special requirements for data brokers. It was referred this month to the Committee on Commerce, Science and Technology, which Rockefeller chairs. Senate Bill 1490, entitled the Personal Data Privacy and Security Act, designates as fraud unauthorized access of personally identifiable information and allows the act to lead to racketeering charges. Sponsored by Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman, Patrick Leahy, it would also prohibit concealment of security breaches involved in fraud and prohibit the dismissal of a Chapter 7 bankruptcy case if the debtor is an identity-theft victim. Many organizations already provide for data breach and the security of personally identifiable information as part of an Identity Theft Prevention Program or Red Flags Rule compliance. I’m happy to say that many rely on Experian tools (https://www.experian.com/data-breach/data-breach-resources.html) for data breach or Enterprise Risk Management solutions. However, any of these bills could change the game for many businesses not already regulated by the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (GLB), the Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA) or Fair and Accurate Credit Transactions Act (FACTA). In fact, two of the bills would essentially subject data brokers to the same kinds of legislation that financial institutions have under FCRA. The reasoning behind it is that fraud trends continue to show risk levels are the same to the consumer, regardless of where the information is stored. The financial industry and credit bureau data have been regulated for years so, in a sense, I think it’s just “more of the same” unless you happen to be in an industry not regulated as stringently. Still… it’s worth keeping those “tabs” and RSS feeds alive.

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With the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show set to kickoff later this week, it seemed fitting to explore how the shifting dynamics of the used vehicle market might impact dealers and buyers over the coming year. Shedding light on some of the registration and finance trends, as well as purchasing behaviors, can help dealers and manufacturers stay ahead of the curve. And just like that, the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report was born. As I was sifting through the data, one of the trends that stood out to me was the neck-and-neck race between Millennials and Gen X for supremacy in the used vehicle market. Five years ago, in 2019, Millennials were responsible for 33.3% of used retail registrations, followed by Gen X (29.5%) and Baby Boomers (26.8%). Since then, Baby Boomers have gradually fallen off, and Gen X continues to close the already minuscule gap. Through October 2024, Millennials accounted for 31.6%, while Gen X accounted for 30.4%. But trends can turn on a dime if the last year offers any indication. Over the last rolling 12 months (October 2023-October 2024), Gen X (31.4%) accounted for the majority of used vehicle registrations compared to Millennials (30.9%). Of course, the data is still close, and what 2025 holds is anyone’s guess, but understanding even the smallest changes in market share and consumer purchasing behaviors can help dealers and manufacturers adapt and navigate the road ahead. Although there are similarities between Millennials and Gen X, there are drastic differences, including motivations and preferences. Dealers and manufacturers should engage them on a generational level. What are they buying? Some of the data might not come as a surprise but it’s a good reminder that consumers are in different phases of life, meaning priorities change. Over the last rolling 12 months, Millennials over-indexed on used vans, accounting for more than one-third of registrations. Meanwhile, Gen X over-indexed on used trucks, making up nearly one-third of registrations, and Gen Z over-indexed on cars (accounting for 17.1% of used car registrations compared to 14.6% of overall used vehicle registrations). This isn’t surprising. Many Millennials have young families and may need extra space and functionality, while Gen Xers might prefer the versatility of the pickup truck—the ability to use it for work and personal use. On the other hand, Gen Zers are still early in their careers and gravitate towards the affordability and efficiency of smaller cars. Interestingly, although used electric vehicles only make up a small portion of used retail registrations (less than 1%), Millennials made up nearly 40% over the last rolling 12 months, followed by Gen X (32.2%) and Baby Boomers (15.8%). The market at a bird’s eye view Pulling back a bit on the used vehicle landscape, over the last rolling 12 months, CUVs/SUVs (38.9%) and cars (36.6%) accounted for the majority of used retail registrations. And nearly nine-in-ten used registrations were non-luxury vehicles. What’s more, ICE vehicles made up 88.5% of used retail registrations over the same period, while alternative-fuel vehicles (not including BEVs) made up 10.7% and electric vehicles made up 0.8%. At the finance level, we’re seeing the market shift ever so slightly. Since the beginning of the pandemic, one of the constant narratives in the industry has been the rising cost of owning a vehicle, both new and used. And while the average loan amount for a used non-luxury vehicle has gone up over the past five years, we’re seeing a gradual decline since 2022. In 2019, the average loan amount was $22,636 and spiked $29,983 in 2022. In 2024, the average loan amount reached $28,895. Much of the decline in average loan amounts can be attributed to the resurgence of new vehicle inventory, which has resulted in lower used values. With new leasing climbing over the past several quarters, we may see more late-model used inventory hit the market in the next few years, which will most certainly impact used financing. The used market moving forward Relying on historical data and trends can help dealers and manufacturers prepare and navigate the road ahead. Used vehicles will always fit the need for shoppers looking for their next vehicle; understanding some market trends will help ensure dealers and manufacturers can be at the forefront of helping those shoppers. For more information on the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report, visit Experian booth #627 at the NADA Show in New Orleans, January 23-26.

The automotive industry is constantly changing. Shifting consumer demands and preferences, as well as dynamic economic factors, make the need for data-driven insights more important than ever. As we head into the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show this week, we wanted to explore some of the trends in the used vehicle market in our Special Report: State of the Automotive Finance Market Report. Packed with valuable insights and the latest trends, we’ll take a deep dive into the multi-faceted used vehicle market and better understand how consumers are financing used vehicles. 9+ model years grow Although late-model vehicles tend to represent much of the used vehicle finance market, we were surprised by the gradual growth of 9+ model year (MY) vehicles. In 2019, 9+MY vehicles accounted for 26.6% of the used vehicle sales. Since then, we’ve seen year-over-year growth, culminating with 9+MY vehicles making up a little more than 30% of used vehicle sales in 2024. Perhaps more interesting though, is who is financing these vehicles. Five years ago, prime and super prime borrowers represented 42.5% of 9+MY vehicles, however, in 2024, those consumers accounted for nearly 54% of 9+MY originations. Among the more popular 9+MY segments, CUVs and SUVs comprised 36.9% of sales in 2024, up from 35.2% in 2023, while cars went from 44.3% to 42.9% year-over-year and pickup trucks decreased from 15.9% to 15.6%. 2024 highlights by used vehicle age group To get a better sense of the overall used market, the segments were broken down into three age groups—9+MY, 4-8MY, and current +3MY—and to no surprise, the finance attributes vary widely. While we’ve seen the return of new vehicle inventory drive used vehicle values lower, it could be a sign that consumers are continuing to seek out affordable options that fit their lifestyle. In fact, the average loan amount for a 9+MY vehicle was $19,376 in 2024, compared to $24,198 for a vehicle between 4-8 years old and $32,381 for +3MY vehicle. Plus, more than 55% of 9+MY vehicles have monthly payments under $400. That’s not an insignificant number for people shopping with the monthly payment in mind. In 2024, the average monthly payment for a used vehicle that falls under current+3MY was $608. Meanwhile, 4-8MY vehicles came in at an average monthly payment of $498, and 9+MY vehicles had a $431 monthly payment. Taking a deeper dive into average loan amounts based on specific vehicle types—as of 2024, current +3MY cars came in at $28,721, followed by CUVs/SUVs ($31,589) and pickup trucks ($40,618). As for 4-8MY vehicles, cars came in with a loan amount of $22,013, CUVs/SUVs were at $23,133, and pickup trucks at $31,114. Used 9+MY cars had a loan amount of $19,506, CUVs/SUVs came in at $17,350, and pickup trucks at $22,369. With interest rates remaining top of mind for most consumers as we’ve seen them increase in recent years, understanding the growth from 2019-2024 can give a holistic picture of how the market has shifted over time. For instance, the average interest rate for a used current+3MY vehicle was 8.0% in 2019 and grew to 10.2% in 2024, the average rate for a 4-8MY vehicle went from 10.3% to 12.9%, and the average rate for a 9+MY vehicle increased from 11.4% to 13.8% in the same time frame. Looking ahead to the used vehicle market It’s important for automotive professionals to understand and leverage the data of the used market as it can provide valuable insights into trending consumer behavior and pricing patterns. While we don’t exactly know where the market will stand in a few years—adapting strategies based on historical data and anticipating shifts can help professionals better prepare for both challenges and opportunities in the future. As used vehicles remain a staple piece of the automotive industry, making informed decisions and optimizing inventory management will ensure agility as the market continues to shift. For more information, visit us at the Experian booth (#627) during the NADA Show in New Orleans from January 23-26.