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In “An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure” Kristan Frend touched on the vulnerabilities faced by members of our Armed Services. That post made me think about recent fraud trends. Over the course of this spring and summer, I attended a few conferences and at one of these events something a bit disturbing occurred – a staff member for one of the exhibitors was victimized during the event. The individual’s wallet, containing cash and credit cards, was stolen along with the person’s passport and the victim didn’t realize it until they received their wake-up call the next morning. The few people who heard about it wondered “How could this happen at an event of industry professionals?” The answer is simple. Even industry professionals are every-day consumers, vulnerable to attack. As part of our Knowledge Based Authentication practice, Experian engages in blind focus group interviews with “every-day consumers” facilitated by an independent consulting group on Experian’s behalf. What we learn during those sessions informs our best practices for many of the fraud products and guides our process for new question generation in Knowledge Based Authentication. It is also an eye-opening experience. Through our research we have learned that participant consumers are now more aware and accepting of Knowledge Based Authentication than in past years. Knowledge Based Authentication has become a bellwether, consumers expect it. They also expect organizations they deal with to have an Identity Theft Prevention Program – and the ability to recognize when something “just isn’t right” about a situation. However, few participants cited a comprehensive strategy to protect themselves against identity theft, and even fewer actually demonstrated a commitment to follow a strategy, even when they had one. During open and honest conversation in a relaxed setting, participants revealed their true behavior. Many admitted they still use the same password for all their accounts, write their passwords down, and keep copies of their passwords in easily accessible places, such as a purse or a wallet, a desk drawer or an online application. The bottom line is this: Most people will attempt to do what they think they should to protect themselves from identity theft, including shredding or tearing up mail offers, selectively using credit cards and/or monitoring their garbage. However, if the process is too cumbersome or if it requires that they remember too much, they will default to old habits. As Kristan pointed out, thieves may increasingly rely on computer attacks to gather data, but many still resort to low-tech methods like dumpster diving, mail tampering, and purse and wallet theft to obtain privacy sensitive information. When that purse or wallet contains not only personally identifiable information, but also account passwords, the risk levels are significantly higher. Cyber attacks are a threat, but a consumer’s own behavior may be just as risky. As for the victim in this story… a very sharp desk clerk at a neighboring hotel thought it strange that someone was checking-in for a number of days without a reservation at full rate and without luggage, which started the ball rolling and led to the perpetrator being caught and the victim getting everything back except for some cash that had been spent at a coffee merchant. Clearly, this close call didn’t turn-out as badly as it could have.
US interest rates are at historically low levels, and while many Americans are taking advantage of the low interest rates and refinancing their mortgages, a great deal more are struggling to find jobs, and unable to take advantage of the rate- friendly lending environment. This market however, continues to be complex as lenders try to competitively price products while balancing dynamic consumer risk levels, multiple product options and minimize the cost of acquisition. Due to this, lenders need to implement advanced risk-based pricing strategies that will balance the uncertain risk profiles of consumers while closely monitoring long-term profitability as re-pricing may not be an option given recent regulatory guidelines. Risk-based pricing has been a hot topic recently with the Credit Card Act and Risk-Based Pricing Rule regulation and pending deadline. For lenders who have not performed a new applicant scorecard validation or detailed portfolio analysis in the last few years now is the time to review pricing strategies and portfolio mix. This analysis will aid in maintaining an acceptable risk level as the portfolio evolves with new consumers and risk tiers while ensuring short and long-term profitability and on-going regulatory compliance. At its core, risk-based pricing is a methodology that is used to determine the what interest rate should be charged to a consumer based on the inherent risk and profitability present within a defined pricing tier. By utilizing risk-based pricing, organizations can ensure the overall portfolio is profitable while providing competitive rates to each unique portfolio segment. Consistent review and strategy modification is crucial to success in today’s lending environment. Competition for the lowest risk consumers will continue to increase as qualified candidate pools shrink given the slow economic recovery. By reviewing your portfolio on a regular basis and monitoring portfolio pricing strategies closely an organization can achieve portfolio growth and revenue objectives while monitoring population stability, portfolio performance and future losses.
By: Kristan Frend Last week I came across a news article that said the NYPD arrested 26 people who allegedly took at least $5 million from stealing identities. What I found most disturbing was that criminals allegedly affected more than 200 soldiers, including many of whom were unaware of what was happening, since they were serving overseas. To help reduce the risk of identity theft and minimize fraud losses, all three major credit bureaus provide Active- Duty Alerts, which allow deployed soldiers to have their credit frozen while they are overseas. While these fraud alerts, coupled with financial institutions implementing identity theft programs, can help prevent identity theft losses, what is being done to reduce the risk of military personnel data being exposed and stolen? As social security numbers play a key role in identity theft, I was surprised and disturbed to learn that government issued military ID cards include the card holder’s social security number in full on the front. This creates an obvious security vulnerability to the card holder. Especially considering that the military ID card must be shown in a number of situations, such as getting on and off base, medical care, picking up prescriptions, entering a base shopping exchange, mess hall, etc. There are many situations where the service member encounters people in positions that were once filled by military personnel but are now filled by civilians, who may not have the same code of honor toward others in the military community. While it’s true that thieves are increasingly using computer hacking, phishing, malware, spyware and key stroke loggers to gather SSNs, thieves still resort to low-tech methods like dumpster diving, mail tampering, and purse and wallet theft to obtain privacy sensitive information. The need to show ID so often and the fact that it contains all of their pertinent data, puts service members at particular risk when they may be in harm’s way, focused more on missions than money missing from their bank account. The good news is that the Department of Defense launched a Social Security Number reduction initiative consisting of a phased removal of SSNs. Phase one, removal of dependent SSNs from ID cards is underway. Phase two, removal of printed SSNs from all cards has been placed on hold indefinitely, and phase three, removal of SSNs embedded in barcodes will begin in 2012. My point is not to be critical of the use of SSNs; I think we all can agree that the use of SSNs have become an integral part of our culture. However, we should look to see that organizations carefully balance the value of how SSNs are used with the vulnerabilities that its use creates. The old adage “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure” could never be truer than with identity theft. The easiest way to minimize fraud is to avoid it by not giving criminals the opportunity to perpetrate identity theft against individuals.
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With the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show set to kickoff later this week, it seemed fitting to explore how the shifting dynamics of the used vehicle market might impact dealers and buyers over the coming year. Shedding light on some of the registration and finance trends, as well as purchasing behaviors, can help dealers and manufacturers stay ahead of the curve. And just like that, the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report was born. As I was sifting through the data, one of the trends that stood out to me was the neck-and-neck race between Millennials and Gen X for supremacy in the used vehicle market. Five years ago, in 2019, Millennials were responsible for 33.3% of used retail registrations, followed by Gen X (29.5%) and Baby Boomers (26.8%). Since then, Baby Boomers have gradually fallen off, and Gen X continues to close the already minuscule gap. Through October 2024, Millennials accounted for 31.6%, while Gen X accounted for 30.4%. But trends can turn on a dime if the last year offers any indication. Over the last rolling 12 months (October 2023-October 2024), Gen X (31.4%) accounted for the majority of used vehicle registrations compared to Millennials (30.9%). Of course, the data is still close, and what 2025 holds is anyone’s guess, but understanding even the smallest changes in market share and consumer purchasing behaviors can help dealers and manufacturers adapt and navigate the road ahead. Although there are similarities between Millennials and Gen X, there are drastic differences, including motivations and preferences. Dealers and manufacturers should engage them on a generational level. What are they buying? Some of the data might not come as a surprise but it’s a good reminder that consumers are in different phases of life, meaning priorities change. Over the last rolling 12 months, Millennials over-indexed on used vans, accounting for more than one-third of registrations. Meanwhile, Gen X over-indexed on used trucks, making up nearly one-third of registrations, and Gen Z over-indexed on cars (accounting for 17.1% of used car registrations compared to 14.6% of overall used vehicle registrations). This isn’t surprising. Many Millennials have young families and may need extra space and functionality, while Gen Xers might prefer the versatility of the pickup truck—the ability to use it for work and personal use. On the other hand, Gen Zers are still early in their careers and gravitate towards the affordability and efficiency of smaller cars. Interestingly, although used electric vehicles only make up a small portion of used retail registrations (less than 1%), Millennials made up nearly 40% over the last rolling 12 months, followed by Gen X (32.2%) and Baby Boomers (15.8%). The market at a bird’s eye view Pulling back a bit on the used vehicle landscape, over the last rolling 12 months, CUVs/SUVs (38.9%) and cars (36.6%) accounted for the majority of used retail registrations. And nearly nine-in-ten used registrations were non-luxury vehicles. What’s more, ICE vehicles made up 88.5% of used retail registrations over the same period, while alternative-fuel vehicles (not including BEVs) made up 10.7% and electric vehicles made up 0.8%. At the finance level, we’re seeing the market shift ever so slightly. Since the beginning of the pandemic, one of the constant narratives in the industry has been the rising cost of owning a vehicle, both new and used. And while the average loan amount for a used non-luxury vehicle has gone up over the past five years, we’re seeing a gradual decline since 2022. In 2019, the average loan amount was $22,636 and spiked $29,983 in 2022. In 2024, the average loan amount reached $28,895. Much of the decline in average loan amounts can be attributed to the resurgence of new vehicle inventory, which has resulted in lower used values. With new leasing climbing over the past several quarters, we may see more late-model used inventory hit the market in the next few years, which will most certainly impact used financing. The used market moving forward Relying on historical data and trends can help dealers and manufacturers prepare and navigate the road ahead. Used vehicles will always fit the need for shoppers looking for their next vehicle; understanding some market trends will help ensure dealers and manufacturers can be at the forefront of helping those shoppers. For more information on the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report, visit Experian booth #627 at the NADA Show in New Orleans, January 23-26.
The automotive industry is constantly changing. Shifting consumer demands and preferences, as well as dynamic economic factors, make the need for data-driven insights more important than ever. As we head into the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show this week, we wanted to explore some of the trends in the used vehicle market in our Special Report: State of the Automotive Finance Market Report. Packed with valuable insights and the latest trends, we’ll take a deep dive into the multi-faceted used vehicle market and better understand how consumers are financing used vehicles. 9+ model years grow Although late-model vehicles tend to represent much of the used vehicle finance market, we were surprised by the gradual growth of 9+ model year (MY) vehicles. In 2019, 9+MY vehicles accounted for 26.6% of the used vehicle sales. Since then, we’ve seen year-over-year growth, culminating with 9+MY vehicles making up a little more than 30% of used vehicle sales in 2024. Perhaps more interesting though, is who is financing these vehicles. Five years ago, prime and super prime borrowers represented 42.5% of 9+MY vehicles, however, in 2024, those consumers accounted for nearly 54% of 9+MY originations. Among the more popular 9+MY segments, CUVs and SUVs comprised 36.9% of sales in 2024, up from 35.2% in 2023, while cars went from 44.3% to 42.9% year-over-year and pickup trucks decreased from 15.9% to 15.6%. 2024 highlights by used vehicle age group To get a better sense of the overall used market, the segments were broken down into three age groups—9+MY, 4-8MY, and current +3MY—and to no surprise, the finance attributes vary widely. While we’ve seen the return of new vehicle inventory drive used vehicle values lower, it could be a sign that consumers are continuing to seek out affordable options that fit their lifestyle. In fact, the average loan amount for a 9+MY vehicle was $19,376 in 2024, compared to $24,198 for a vehicle between 4-8 years old and $32,381 for +3MY vehicle. Plus, more than 55% of 9+MY vehicles have monthly payments under $400. That’s not an insignificant number for people shopping with the monthly payment in mind. In 2024, the average monthly payment for a used vehicle that falls under current+3MY was $608. Meanwhile, 4-8MY vehicles came in at an average monthly payment of $498, and 9+MY vehicles had a $431 monthly payment. Taking a deeper dive into average loan amounts based on specific vehicle types—as of 2024, current +3MY cars came in at $28,721, followed by CUVs/SUVs ($31,589) and pickup trucks ($40,618). As for 4-8MY vehicles, cars came in with a loan amount of $22,013, CUVs/SUVs were at $23,133, and pickup trucks at $31,114. Used 9+MY cars had a loan amount of $19,506, CUVs/SUVs came in at $17,350, and pickup trucks at $22,369. With interest rates remaining top of mind for most consumers as we’ve seen them increase in recent years, understanding the growth from 2019-2024 can give a holistic picture of how the market has shifted over time. For instance, the average interest rate for a used current+3MY vehicle was 8.0% in 2019 and grew to 10.2% in 2024, the average rate for a 4-8MY vehicle went from 10.3% to 12.9%, and the average rate for a 9+MY vehicle increased from 11.4% to 13.8% in the same time frame. Looking ahead to the used vehicle market It’s important for automotive professionals to understand and leverage the data of the used market as it can provide valuable insights into trending consumer behavior and pricing patterns. While we don’t exactly know where the market will stand in a few years—adapting strategies based on historical data and anticipating shifts can help professionals better prepare for both challenges and opportunities in the future. As used vehicles remain a staple piece of the automotive industry, making informed decisions and optimizing inventory management will ensure agility as the market continues to shift. For more information, visit us at the Experian booth (#627) during the NADA Show in New Orleans from January 23-26.
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