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of the printing and typesetting industry. Lorem Ipsum has been the industry’s standard dummy text ever since the 1500s, when an unknown printer took a galley of type and scrambled it to make a type specimen book. It has survived not only five centuries, but also the leap into electronic typesetting, remaining essentially unchanged. It was popularised in the 1960s with the release of Letraset sheets containing Lorem Ipsum passages, and more recently with desktop publishing software like Aldus PageMaker including versions of Lorem Ipsum
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I often provide fraud analyses to clients, whereby they identify fraudsters that have somehow gotten through the system. We then go in and see what kinds of conditions exist in the fraudulent population that exist to a much lesser degree in the overall population. We typically do this with indicators, flags, match codes, and other conditions that we have available on the Experian end of things. But that is not to say there aren't things on your side of the fence that could be effective indicators of fraud risk as well! One simple example could be geography. If 50% of your known frauds are coming from a state that only sees 5% of your overall population, then that state sounds like a great indicator of fraud risk! What action you take based on this knowledge is up to you (and, I suppose, government regulation). One option would be to route the risky customers through a more onerous authentication procedure. For example, they might have to come into a branch in person to validate their identity. Geography is certainly not the only potential indicator of fraud risk. Be creative! There might be previously untapped indicators of fraud risk lurking in your customer databases. Do not limit yourself to intuition either. Oftentimes the best indicators of fraud risk that I find are counterintuitive. Just compare the percentage of time a condition occurs in your fraud population to the percentage of time it occurs in the overall population. It might be that you have a fraud ring that is leaving some telltale fingerprint on their behavior–one that is actionable in ways that will jumpstart your fraud prevention practices and minimize fraud losses!
In case you’ve never heard of it, a Babel fish is a small translator; that allows a carrier to understand anything said in any form of language. Alta Vista popularized the name but I believe Douglas Adams, author of The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, should be given credit for coining the term. So, what does a Babel fish have to do with Knowledge Based Authentication? Knowledge Based Authentication is always about the data – I have said this before. There is one universal truth: data doesn’t lie. However, that doesn’t mean it is easy to understand what the data is saying. It is a bit like a foreign language. You may have taken classes, and you can read the language or carry on a passable conversation, but that doesn’t mean it’s a good idea to enter into a contract – at least, not without an attorney who speaks the language, or your very own Babel fish. Setting up the best Knowledge Based Authentication configuration for risk management of your line of business can sometimes seem like that contract in a foreign language. There are many decisions to be made and the number of questions to present and which questions to ask is often the easy part. To truly get the most out of fraud models, it is necessary to consider where the score cuts that will be used with your Knowledge Based Authentication session will be set and what methodology will be used to invoke the Knowledge Based Authentication session: objective score performance, manual review and decision, etc. It is also important to consider the “kind of fraud” you might be seeing. This is where it is helpful to have your very own Babel fish – one designed specifically for fraud trends, fraud data, fraud models and Knowledge Based Authentication. If your vendor doesn’t offer you a Babel fish, ask for one. Yours could have one of many titles, but you will know this person when you speak with them, for their level of understanding of not only your business but, more importantly, your data and what it means. Sometimes the Babel fish will work in Consulting, sometimes in Product Management, sometimes in Analytics – the important thing is that there are fraud-specific experts available to you. Think about that for a minute. Business today is a delicate balance between customer experience/relationship management and risk management. If your vendor can’t offer you a Babel fish, tell them you have fish to fry – elsewhere.
By: Staci Baker With the increase in consumer behaviors such as ‘strategic default’, it has become increasingly difficult during the past few years for lenders to determine who the most creditworthy consumers are – defining consumers with the lowest credit risk. If you define risk as ‘the likelihood of [a consumer] becoming 90 days or more past due’, the findings are alarming. From June 2007 to June 2009, Super Prime consumers (those scoring 900 or higher) in the U.S. have gone from an average VantageScore® credit score* of 945 to 918, which increased their risk level from approx. 0.12% to 0.62% – an increase of 417% for this highly sought after population! Prime and near prime risk levels increased by 400% and 96% respectively. Whereas subprime consumers with few choices (stay subprime or improve their score), saw a slight decrease in risk, 8% – increasing their average VantageScore® credit score from 578 to 599. So how do lenders determine who to lend to, when the risk level for all credit tiers increases, or remain risky? In today’s dynamic economy, lenders need tools that will give them an edge, and allow them to identify consumer trends quickly. Incorporating analytic tools, like Premier Attributes, into lender’s origination models, will allow them to pinpoint specific consumer behavior, and provide segmentation through predefined attribute sets that are industry specific and target profitable accounts to improve acquisition strategies. As risk levels change, maintaining profitability becomes more difficult due to shrinking eligible consumer pools. By adding credit attributes, assessing credit risk both within an organization and for new accounts will be simplified and allow for more targeted prospects, thus maximizing prospecting strategies across the customer lifecycle and helping to increase profitability. * VantageScore®, LLC, May, 2010, “Finding Creditworthy Consumers in a Changing Economic Climate”
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With the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show set to kickoff later this week, it seemed fitting to explore how the shifting dynamics of the used vehicle market might impact dealers and buyers over the coming year. Shedding light on some of the registration and finance trends, as well as purchasing behaviors, can help dealers and manufacturers stay ahead of the curve. And just like that, the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report was born. As I was sifting through the data, one of the trends that stood out to me was the neck-and-neck race between Millennials and Gen X for supremacy in the used vehicle market. Five years ago, in 2019, Millennials were responsible for 33.3% of used retail registrations, followed by Gen X (29.5%) and Baby Boomers (26.8%). Since then, Baby Boomers have gradually fallen off, and Gen X continues to close the already minuscule gap. Through October 2024, Millennials accounted for 31.6%, while Gen X accounted for 30.4%. But trends can turn on a dime if the last year offers any indication. Over the last rolling 12 months (October 2023-October 2024), Gen X (31.4%) accounted for the majority of used vehicle registrations compared to Millennials (30.9%). Of course, the data is still close, and what 2025 holds is anyone’s guess, but understanding even the smallest changes in market share and consumer purchasing behaviors can help dealers and manufacturers adapt and navigate the road ahead. Although there are similarities between Millennials and Gen X, there are drastic differences, including motivations and preferences. Dealers and manufacturers should engage them on a generational level. What are they buying? Some of the data might not come as a surprise but it’s a good reminder that consumers are in different phases of life, meaning priorities change. Over the last rolling 12 months, Millennials over-indexed on used vans, accounting for more than one-third of registrations. Meanwhile, Gen X over-indexed on used trucks, making up nearly one-third of registrations, and Gen Z over-indexed on cars (accounting for 17.1% of used car registrations compared to 14.6% of overall used vehicle registrations). This isn’t surprising. Many Millennials have young families and may need extra space and functionality, while Gen Xers might prefer the versatility of the pickup truck—the ability to use it for work and personal use. On the other hand, Gen Zers are still early in their careers and gravitate towards the affordability and efficiency of smaller cars. Interestingly, although used electric vehicles only make up a small portion of used retail registrations (less than 1%), Millennials made up nearly 40% over the last rolling 12 months, followed by Gen X (32.2%) and Baby Boomers (15.8%). The market at a bird’s eye view Pulling back a bit on the used vehicle landscape, over the last rolling 12 months, CUVs/SUVs (38.9%) and cars (36.6%) accounted for the majority of used retail registrations. And nearly nine-in-ten used registrations were non-luxury vehicles. What’s more, ICE vehicles made up 88.5% of used retail registrations over the same period, while alternative-fuel vehicles (not including BEVs) made up 10.7% and electric vehicles made up 0.8%. At the finance level, we’re seeing the market shift ever so slightly. Since the beginning of the pandemic, one of the constant narratives in the industry has been the rising cost of owning a vehicle, both new and used. And while the average loan amount for a used non-luxury vehicle has gone up over the past five years, we’re seeing a gradual decline since 2022. In 2019, the average loan amount was $22,636 and spiked $29,983 in 2022. In 2024, the average loan amount reached $28,895. Much of the decline in average loan amounts can be attributed to the resurgence of new vehicle inventory, which has resulted in lower used values. With new leasing climbing over the past several quarters, we may see more late-model used inventory hit the market in the next few years, which will most certainly impact used financing. The used market moving forward Relying on historical data and trends can help dealers and manufacturers prepare and navigate the road ahead. Used vehicles will always fit the need for shoppers looking for their next vehicle; understanding some market trends will help ensure dealers and manufacturers can be at the forefront of helping those shoppers. For more information on the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report, visit Experian booth #627 at the NADA Show in New Orleans, January 23-26.
The automotive industry is constantly changing. Shifting consumer demands and preferences, as well as dynamic economic factors, make the need for data-driven insights more important than ever. As we head into the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show this week, we wanted to explore some of the trends in the used vehicle market in our Special Report: State of the Automotive Finance Market Report. Packed with valuable insights and the latest trends, we’ll take a deep dive into the multi-faceted used vehicle market and better understand how consumers are financing used vehicles. 9+ model years grow Although late-model vehicles tend to represent much of the used vehicle finance market, we were surprised by the gradual growth of 9+ model year (MY) vehicles. In 2019, 9+MY vehicles accounted for 26.6% of the used vehicle sales. Since then, we’ve seen year-over-year growth, culminating with 9+MY vehicles making up a little more than 30% of used vehicle sales in 2024. Perhaps more interesting though, is who is financing these vehicles. Five years ago, prime and super prime borrowers represented 42.5% of 9+MY vehicles, however, in 2024, those consumers accounted for nearly 54% of 9+MY originations. Among the more popular 9+MY segments, CUVs and SUVs comprised 36.9% of sales in 2024, up from 35.2% in 2023, while cars went from 44.3% to 42.9% year-over-year and pickup trucks decreased from 15.9% to 15.6%. 2024 highlights by used vehicle age group To get a better sense of the overall used market, the segments were broken down into three age groups—9+MY, 4-8MY, and current +3MY—and to no surprise, the finance attributes vary widely. While we’ve seen the return of new vehicle inventory drive used vehicle values lower, it could be a sign that consumers are continuing to seek out affordable options that fit their lifestyle. In fact, the average loan amount for a 9+MY vehicle was $19,376 in 2024, compared to $24,198 for a vehicle between 4-8 years old and $32,381 for +3MY vehicle. Plus, more than 55% of 9+MY vehicles have monthly payments under $400. That’s not an insignificant number for people shopping with the monthly payment in mind. In 2024, the average monthly payment for a used vehicle that falls under current+3MY was $608. Meanwhile, 4-8MY vehicles came in at an average monthly payment of $498, and 9+MY vehicles had a $431 monthly payment. Taking a deeper dive into average loan amounts based on specific vehicle types—as of 2024, current +3MY cars came in at $28,721, followed by CUVs/SUVs ($31,589) and pickup trucks ($40,618). As for 4-8MY vehicles, cars came in with a loan amount of $22,013, CUVs/SUVs were at $23,133, and pickup trucks at $31,114. Used 9+MY cars had a loan amount of $19,506, CUVs/SUVs came in at $17,350, and pickup trucks at $22,369. With interest rates remaining top of mind for most consumers as we’ve seen them increase in recent years, understanding the growth from 2019-2024 can give a holistic picture of how the market has shifted over time. For instance, the average interest rate for a used current+3MY vehicle was 8.0% in 2019 and grew to 10.2% in 2024, the average rate for a 4-8MY vehicle went from 10.3% to 12.9%, and the average rate for a 9+MY vehicle increased from 11.4% to 13.8% in the same time frame. Looking ahead to the used vehicle market It’s important for automotive professionals to understand and leverage the data of the used market as it can provide valuable insights into trending consumer behavior and pricing patterns. While we don’t exactly know where the market will stand in a few years—adapting strategies based on historical data and anticipating shifts can help professionals better prepare for both challenges and opportunities in the future. As used vehicles remain a staple piece of the automotive industry, making informed decisions and optimizing inventory management will ensure agility as the market continues to shift. For more information, visit us at the Experian booth (#627) during the NADA Show in New Orleans from January 23-26.
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