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By: Tom Hannagan Part 3 I believe it is quite important to compare your bank or your investment plans in a financial institution to the results of peer group averages. Not all banks are the same, believe it or not. In this column, we use the averages. Again, look for the differences in your target institution. About half of them beat certain performance numbers, while the other half are naturally worse. It can tell a useful story. This continues the updated review of results from the Uniform Bank Performance Reports (UBPR), courtesy of the FDIC, for 2008. The UBPR is based on the quarterly required Call Reports submitted by insured banks. The FDIC compiles peer averages for various bank size groupings. Here are the findings for the two largest groups that cover 494 reporting banks. I wanted to see how the various profit performance components compare to the costs of credit risk discussed in my previous post. It is even more apparent than it was in early 2008 that banks still have a ways to go to be fully pricing loans for both expected and unexpected risk. Peer Group 1 (PG1) is made up of the largest 189 reporting banks or those with over $3 billion in average total assets for 2008. Interest income was 5.25 percent of average total assets for the period. This is down, as we might expect, based on last year’s decline in the general level of interest rates from 6.16 percent in 2007. Net Interest Expense was also down from 2.98 percent in 2007 to 2.06 percent average for the year. Net Interest Margin, the difference between the two metrics, was down from 3.16 percent in 2007 to 3.11 percent as a percentage of total assets. It should be noted that Net Interest Margins have been in a steady, chronic decline for at least 10 years, with a torturous regular drop of 2 to 5 basis points per annum in recent years. Last year’s drop of five basis points is in line with that progression and it does add to continuing difficulty in generating bottom-line profits. To find out a bit more about why margins dropped, especially in light of the steady increase in lending over the same past decade, we looked first at loan pricing yields. For PG1 these averaged 6.12 percent for 2008, down (again, expectedly) from 7.32 percent in 2007. This is a drop of 120 basis points or a decline of 16 percent. Meanwhile, rates paid on interest-earning deposits dropped from 3.41 percent in 2007 to 2.39 percent in 2008. This 102 basis point decline represents a 30 percent lower interest expense on interest-bearing deposits. Based only on these two metrics, it seems like margins should have improved and not declined for these banks. Check my next blog for more on the reasons for Peer Group 1’s drop in margins and an analysis of the fee income and operating expenses for these institutions.
Part twoImproved collector productivity and cash flow is the concept of doing more work with existing staff or doing the same amount of work with fewer human resources. In its most simplistic form, the associated metric is the number of cases worked per employee in a given amount of time. While the definition of cases worked can be open to interpretation, the most common qualifier is that an action from a pre-defined list must be executed and documented for each account.When leveraging modern technology to achieve these results, the first objective is to channel the accounts that benefit the most from human intervention. Real-time segmentation that considers the most current status of the case is a key feature in new systems that ensure accounts are placed in the right place at the right time. This makes certain that accounts find their way to the most appropriate skill level so that less experienced staff are not overwhelmed and more experienced staff are not tasked with easier activities that distract them from solving more complex situations. Context-sensitive screens and menus can further improve the productivity gains when collectors are working accounts. When collectors have the data they need to perform a task or make a decision without having to sift through irrelevant information, handling time is significantly reduced. Refreshing the screens and menus in real time as an account status changes is another key feature in today’s technology that ensures the appropriate information is always presented to the collector.Real-time scriptingReal-time scripting that is capable of being updated along with the changing situation is another productivity contributor, as is user-friendly screens. Not only is handling time further reduced, but gains can be found in significantly shorter training time for new staff members. Enabling the business users to change screen content, scripting, menus and visual aids on the fly is a powerful benefit of next generation collections systems. The ability to support champion / challenger testing for any visual or screen content changes further enables the organization to test and validate work stream improvements. In addition to the benefits mentioned above, advanced scripting and on-line help can significantly assist an organization to adhere to legal and compliance requirements.Real-time segmentationReal-time segmentation, coupled with context sensitive screens that refresh as the account situation changes (even in the midst of a negotiation) facilitate more effective negotiations. This lets collectors send more appropriate and relevant messaging to customers. Further improvements can be attributed to enabling a holistic view of the customer relationship and the relevance and effectiveness will be more consistent across the organization. The net effect is collecting more dollars per negotiation from the same population of customers that will be contacted in a faster manner.Real-time segmentation of accounts also provides the added benefit of keeping accounts in an active status and as a result makes your collections work stream more efficient. Not being dependent upon a batch process to update and route accounts ensures that each case is always in the right place at the right time and never in a holding pattern awaiting a transfer between work queues or departments. As a result, the organization will see more efficient case handling and a faster collection of debt.Improved productivity and real-time dashboardingImproved productivity reporting and real-time dashboarding enable line managers to provide appropriate feedback to collectors to make certain that Key Performance Indicators (KPI) goals are met on a regular basis. The resources in need of coaching or training can be identified before the substandard performance significantly reduces team objectives and collectors that excel can be provided with timely and accurate positive reinforcement.Gains in productivityWhen migrating to modern technology, it is very common that organizations experience at least a 20 percent gain in productivity improvement initially. This equates to the possibility of 20 fewer headcount in a team of 100 to handle the same workload. Alternatively, the existing team could handle 20 percent more accounts with approximately the same average results per account. Assuming a fully loaded cost of $50,000 a year per headcount, a 20 percent productivity boost in this example would roughly translate to a million dollars annually in financial benefit. When considering the additional benefit of reduced cost of training, this number will be even higher.Thanks for coming back. My next two blogs will provide additional details on the benefits of next generation collections systems including reduced operational and overhead costs and improved change management process.Stay tuned!
Part oneIn today’s collections environment, the challenges of meeting an organization’s financial objectives are more difficult than ever. Case volumes are higher, accounts are more difficult to collect and changing customer behaviors are rendering existing business models less effective.When responding to recent events, it is not uncommon for organizations to take what may seem to be the easiest path to success — simply hiring more staff. Perhaps in the short-term there may appear to be cash flow improvements, but in most cases this is not the most effective way to cope with long-term business needs. As incremental staff is added to compensate for additional workloads, there is a point of diminishing return on investment and that point can be difficult to define until after the expenditures have been made. Additionally, there are almost always significant operational improvements that can be realized by introducing new technology and the relevant ROI models often forecast very accurately.So, where should a collections department consider investing to improve financial results? The best option will probably not be the obvious choice and the mere thought can make the most seasoned collections professionals shudder … replace the core collections system with modern technology.That said, let’s consider what has changed in recent years and explore why the replacement proposition is not nearly as difficult or costly as it once was. In addition, I’ll discuss how the value proposition typically makes this option extremely appealing today.The collections system software industry is on the brink of a technology evolution to modern, next-generation offerings. Legacy systems are typically inflexible and do not allow for an effective change management program. This handicap leaves collections departments unable to keep up with rapidly changing business objectives that are a critical requirement in surviving through these tough economic times. Today’s collections managers face the need to reduce operational costs while improving other objectives such as reducing losses, improving cash flow and promoting customer satisfaction (particularly with customers that pose a greater lifetime profit opportunity). The next generation collections software squarely addresses these business problems and provides significant improvement over legacy systems. Not only is this modern technology now available, but, the return on investment models are extremely compelling and have been proven in markets where successful implementations have already occurred.This blog is the first of a four part series. I will continue to explain, in detail, the benefits of next generation collections systems while specifically focusing on improved productivity and cash flow; reduced operational and overhead costs; and improved change management processes.Please check back soon!
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With the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show set to kickoff later this week, it seemed fitting to explore how the shifting dynamics of the used vehicle market might impact dealers and buyers over the coming year. Shedding light on some of the registration and finance trends, as well as purchasing behaviors, can help dealers and manufacturers stay ahead of the curve. And just like that, the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report was born. As I was sifting through the data, one of the trends that stood out to me was the neck-and-neck race between Millennials and Gen X for supremacy in the used vehicle market. Five years ago, in 2019, Millennials were responsible for 33.3% of used retail registrations, followed by Gen X (29.5%) and Baby Boomers (26.8%). Since then, Baby Boomers have gradually fallen off, and Gen X continues to close the already minuscule gap. Through October 2024, Millennials accounted for 31.6%, while Gen X accounted for 30.4%. But trends can turn on a dime if the last year offers any indication. Over the last rolling 12 months (October 2023-October 2024), Gen X (31.4%) accounted for the majority of used vehicle registrations compared to Millennials (30.9%). Of course, the data is still close, and what 2025 holds is anyone’s guess, but understanding even the smallest changes in market share and consumer purchasing behaviors can help dealers and manufacturers adapt and navigate the road ahead. Although there are similarities between Millennials and Gen X, there are drastic differences, including motivations and preferences. Dealers and manufacturers should engage them on a generational level. What are they buying? Some of the data might not come as a surprise but it’s a good reminder that consumers are in different phases of life, meaning priorities change. Over the last rolling 12 months, Millennials over-indexed on used vans, accounting for more than one-third of registrations. Meanwhile, Gen X over-indexed on used trucks, making up nearly one-third of registrations, and Gen Z over-indexed on cars (accounting for 17.1% of used car registrations compared to 14.6% of overall used vehicle registrations). This isn’t surprising. Many Millennials have young families and may need extra space and functionality, while Gen Xers might prefer the versatility of the pickup truck—the ability to use it for work and personal use. On the other hand, Gen Zers are still early in their careers and gravitate towards the affordability and efficiency of smaller cars. Interestingly, although used electric vehicles only make up a small portion of used retail registrations (less than 1%), Millennials made up nearly 40% over the last rolling 12 months, followed by Gen X (32.2%) and Baby Boomers (15.8%). The market at a bird’s eye view Pulling back a bit on the used vehicle landscape, over the last rolling 12 months, CUVs/SUVs (38.9%) and cars (36.6%) accounted for the majority of used retail registrations. And nearly nine-in-ten used registrations were non-luxury vehicles. What’s more, ICE vehicles made up 88.5% of used retail registrations over the same period, while alternative-fuel vehicles (not including BEVs) made up 10.7% and electric vehicles made up 0.8%. At the finance level, we’re seeing the market shift ever so slightly. Since the beginning of the pandemic, one of the constant narratives in the industry has been the rising cost of owning a vehicle, both new and used. And while the average loan amount for a used non-luxury vehicle has gone up over the past five years, we’re seeing a gradual decline since 2022. In 2019, the average loan amount was $22,636 and spiked $29,983 in 2022. In 2024, the average loan amount reached $28,895. Much of the decline in average loan amounts can be attributed to the resurgence of new vehicle inventory, which has resulted in lower used values. With new leasing climbing over the past several quarters, we may see more late-model used inventory hit the market in the next few years, which will most certainly impact used financing. The used market moving forward Relying on historical data and trends can help dealers and manufacturers prepare and navigate the road ahead. Used vehicles will always fit the need for shoppers looking for their next vehicle; understanding some market trends will help ensure dealers and manufacturers can be at the forefront of helping those shoppers. For more information on the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report, visit Experian booth #627 at the NADA Show in New Orleans, January 23-26.
The automotive industry is constantly changing. Shifting consumer demands and preferences, as well as dynamic economic factors, make the need for data-driven insights more important than ever. As we head into the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show this week, we wanted to explore some of the trends in the used vehicle market in our Special Report: State of the Automotive Finance Market Report. Packed with valuable insights and the latest trends, we’ll take a deep dive into the multi-faceted used vehicle market and better understand how consumers are financing used vehicles. 9+ model years grow Although late-model vehicles tend to represent much of the used vehicle finance market, we were surprised by the gradual growth of 9+ model year (MY) vehicles. In 2019, 9+MY vehicles accounted for 26.6% of the used vehicle sales. Since then, we’ve seen year-over-year growth, culminating with 9+MY vehicles making up a little more than 30% of used vehicle sales in 2024. Perhaps more interesting though, is who is financing these vehicles. Five years ago, prime and super prime borrowers represented 42.5% of 9+MY vehicles, however, in 2024, those consumers accounted for nearly 54% of 9+MY originations. Among the more popular 9+MY segments, CUVs and SUVs comprised 36.9% of sales in 2024, up from 35.2% in 2023, while cars went from 44.3% to 42.9% year-over-year and pickup trucks decreased from 15.9% to 15.6%. 2024 highlights by used vehicle age group To get a better sense of the overall used market, the segments were broken down into three age groups—9+MY, 4-8MY, and current +3MY—and to no surprise, the finance attributes vary widely. While we’ve seen the return of new vehicle inventory drive used vehicle values lower, it could be a sign that consumers are continuing to seek out affordable options that fit their lifestyle. In fact, the average loan amount for a 9+MY vehicle was $19,376 in 2024, compared to $24,198 for a vehicle between 4-8 years old and $32,381 for +3MY vehicle. Plus, more than 55% of 9+MY vehicles have monthly payments under $400. That’s not an insignificant number for people shopping with the monthly payment in mind. In 2024, the average monthly payment for a used vehicle that falls under current+3MY was $608. Meanwhile, 4-8MY vehicles came in at an average monthly payment of $498, and 9+MY vehicles had a $431 monthly payment. Taking a deeper dive into average loan amounts based on specific vehicle types—as of 2024, current +3MY cars came in at $28,721, followed by CUVs/SUVs ($31,589) and pickup trucks ($40,618). As for 4-8MY vehicles, cars came in with a loan amount of $22,013, CUVs/SUVs were at $23,133, and pickup trucks at $31,114. Used 9+MY cars had a loan amount of $19,506, CUVs/SUVs came in at $17,350, and pickup trucks at $22,369. With interest rates remaining top of mind for most consumers as we’ve seen them increase in recent years, understanding the growth from 2019-2024 can give a holistic picture of how the market has shifted over time. For instance, the average interest rate for a used current+3MY vehicle was 8.0% in 2019 and grew to 10.2% in 2024, the average rate for a 4-8MY vehicle went from 10.3% to 12.9%, and the average rate for a 9+MY vehicle increased from 11.4% to 13.8% in the same time frame. Looking ahead to the used vehicle market It’s important for automotive professionals to understand and leverage the data of the used market as it can provide valuable insights into trending consumer behavior and pricing patterns. While we don’t exactly know where the market will stand in a few years—adapting strategies based on historical data and anticipating shifts can help professionals better prepare for both challenges and opportunities in the future. As used vehicles remain a staple piece of the automotive industry, making informed decisions and optimizing inventory management will ensure agility as the market continues to shift. For more information, visit us at the Experian booth (#627) during the NADA Show in New Orleans from January 23-26.
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