At Experian’s recent client conference, Vision 2011, there was a refreshing amount of positive discussion and outlook on origination rates and acquisition strategies for growth. This was coming not only from industry analysts participating in the conference but from clients as well. As a consumer, I’d sensed the ‘cautious optimism’ that we keep hearing about because my mailbox(the ‘original’ one, not email) has slowly been getting more and more credit card offer letters over the last 6 months.   Does this mean a return to prospecting and ultimately growth for financial institutions and lenders? It’s a glimmer of hope, for sure, although most agree that we’re a long way from being out of the woods, particularly with unemployment rates still high and the housing market in dire shape. Soooo…..you may be wondering where I’m going with this…. Since my job is to support banks, lenders, utilities and numerous other businesses’ in their fraud prevention and compliance efforts, where my mind goes is: how does a return to growth – even slight – impact fraud trends and our clients’ risk management policies? While many factors remain to be seen, here are a few early observations: ·         Account takeover, bust out fraud, and other types of existing account fraud had been on the rise while application fraud had declined or stayed the same (relative to the decrease in new originations); with prospecting and acquisition activity starting to increase, we will likely see a resurgence in new account fraud attempts and methods. ·         Financial institutions and consumers are under increasing risk of malware attacks; with more sophisticated malware technology popping up every day, this will likely be a prime means for fraudsters to commit identity theft and exploit potentially easier new account opening policies. ·         With fraud loss numbers flat or down, the contracted fraud budgets and delayed technology investments by companies over the last few years are a point of vulnerability, especially if the acquisition growth rate jumps substantially.  

The end of 2010 was a transitional time for credit card lenders.  Card issuers were faced with the need to jump-start “return to growth strategies” as a result of diminished profits stemming from the great recession and all of the credit tightening actions deployed over the last two years.  Lenders were deliberate in their actions to shrink balance sheets eliminating higher risk customers.  At the same time, risk adverse consumers were, and continue to be, more thoughtful about spending, taking deliberate measures to buy what they perceive to be necessary and able to pay back. Being the only safe bet in town, the super prime universe went from saturated to abundantly over-saturated, and only recently have lenders begun to turn the ship in anticipation of continued relief in default trends.        As a result of sustained relief in credit card defaults and over-saturation in the prime+ space, more lenders have begun loosening policies. This has created price competition with 74% of new offers including low introductory rates for longer durations, averaging 12 months, up from 9 months just one year ago. The percent of annual fee offers decreased as well to 21% from 34% one year prior. Continuing the trend of competing for the prime+ segment, lenders have increasingly been promoting loyalty programs, in many cases, combined with spend-incented rebates. In fact, over a third of new offers were for rewards based products, up from 26% prior to the start of the economic turn in 2007. Lenders are now shifting gears to compete in new ways focusing on consumer demand for payment choices. Regardless of a consumer’s credit profile, lenders and technology providers are investing in innovative payment solutions. Lenders understand that if the Starbucks “My Coffee Card” is only available on their customer’s iPhone, Blackberry or Android using a re-loadable Starbucks app, then traditional card issuers will lose purchase volume. What is becoming more and more critical is a lenders ability to leverage new data sources in their targeting strategies. It is no longer enough to know what products provide the most relevance to consumer needs. A lender must now know the optimal communication channel for unique segments of the population, their payment preferences and the product terms and features that competitively match the consumer’s needs and risk profile. Lenders are leveraging new data sources around income, wealth, rent payment, ARM reset timing and strategic default, wallet spend and purchase timing.Loading…

By: Tracy Bremmer Score migration has always been a topic of interest among financial institutions. I can remember doing score migration analyses as a consultant at Experian for some of the top financial institutions as far back as 2004, prior to the economic meltdown. Lenders were interested in knowing if I could approve a certain number of people above a particular cut-off, and how many of them will be below that cutoff within five or more years. Or conversely, of all the people I’ve rejected because they were below my cut-off, how many of them would have qualified a year later or maybe even qualified the following month. We’ve done some research recently to gain a better understanding of the impact of score migration, given the economic downturn. What we found was that in aggregate, there is not a ton of change going on. Because as consumers move up or down in their score, the overall average shift tends to be minimal. However, when we’ve tracked this on a quarterly basis into score bands or even at a consumer level, the shift is more meaningful. The general trend is that the VantageScore® credit score “A” band, or best scorers, has been shrinking over time, while the VantageScore® credit score “D” & “F” bands, lower scorers, has grown over time. For instance, in 2010 Q4, the amount of consumers in VantageScore® credit score A was the lowest it has been in the past three years. Conversely, the number of consumers falling into the VantageScore® credit score “D” & “F” bands are the highest they have been during that same time period. This constant shift in credit scores, driven by changes in a consumer’s credit file, can impact risk levels beyond the initial point of applicant approval. For this reason, we recommend updating and refreshing scores on a very regular basis, along with regular scorecard monitoring, to ensure that risk propensity and the offering continue to be appropriately aligned with one another.

At Experian’s recent client conference, Vision 2011, there was a refreshing amount of positive discussion and outlook on origination rates and acquisition strategies for growth. This was coming not only from industry analysts participating in the conference but from clients as well. As a consumer, I’d sensed the ‘cautious optimism’ that we keep hearing about because my mailbox(the ‘original’ one, not email) has slowly been getting more and more credit card offer letters over the last 6 months.   Does this mean a return to prospecting and ultimately growth for financial institutions and lenders? It’s a glimmer of hope, for sure, although most agree that we’re a long way from being out of the woods, particularly with unemployment rates still high and the housing market in dire shape. Soooo…..you may be wondering where I’m going with this…. Since my job is to support banks, lenders, utilities and numerous other businesses’ in their fraud prevention and compliance efforts, where my mind goes is: how does a return to growth – even slight – impact fraud trends and our clients’ risk management policies? While many factors remain to be seen, here are a few early observations: ·         Account takeover, bust out fraud, and other types of existing account fraud had been on the rise while application fraud had declined or stayed the same (relative to the decrease in new originations); with prospecting and acquisition activity starting to increase, we will likely see a resurgence in new account fraud attempts and methods. ·         Financial institutions and consumers are under increasing risk of malware attacks; with more sophisticated malware technology popping up every day, this will likely be a prime means for fraudsters to commit identity theft and exploit potentially easier new account opening policies. ·         With fraud loss numbers flat or down, the contracted fraud budgets and delayed technology investments by companies over the last few years are a point of vulnerability, especially if the acquisition growth rate jumps substantially.  

The end of 2010 was a transitional time for credit card lenders.  Card issuers were faced with the need to jump-start “return to growth strategies” as a result of diminished profits stemming from the great recession and all of the credit tightening actions deployed over the last two years.  Lenders were deliberate in their actions to shrink balance sheets eliminating higher risk customers.  At the same time, risk adverse consumers were, and continue to be, more thoughtful about spending, taking deliberate measures to buy what they perceive to be necessary and able to pay back. Being the only safe bet in town, the super prime universe went from saturated to abundantly over-saturated, and only recently have lenders begun to turn the ship in anticipation of continued relief in default trends.        As a result of sustained relief in credit card defaults and over-saturation in the prime+ space, more lenders have begun loosening policies. This has created price competition with 74% of new offers including low introductory rates for longer durations, averaging 12 months, up from 9 months just one year ago. The percent of annual fee offers decreased as well to 21% from 34% one year prior. Continuing the trend of competing for the prime+ segment, lenders have increasingly been promoting loyalty programs, in many cases, combined with spend-incented rebates. In fact, over a third of new offers were for rewards based products, up from 26% prior to the start of the economic turn in 2007. Lenders are now shifting gears to compete in new ways focusing on consumer demand for payment choices. Regardless of a consumer’s credit profile, lenders and technology providers are investing in innovative payment solutions. Lenders understand that if the Starbucks “My Coffee Card” is only available on their customer’s iPhone, Blackberry or Android using a re-loadable Starbucks app, then traditional card issuers will lose purchase volume. What is becoming more and more critical is a lenders ability to leverage new data sources in their targeting strategies. It is no longer enough to know what products provide the most relevance to consumer needs. A lender must now know the optimal communication channel for unique segments of the population, their payment preferences and the product terms and features that competitively match the consumer’s needs and risk profile. Lenders are leveraging new data sources around income, wealth, rent payment, ARM reset timing and strategic default, wallet spend and purchase timing.Loading…

By: Tracy Bremmer Score migration has always been a topic of interest among financial institutions. I can remember doing score migration analyses as a consultant at Experian for some of the top financial institutions as far back as 2004, prior to the economic meltdown. Lenders were interested in knowing if I could approve a certain number of people above a particular cut-off, and how many of them will be below that cutoff within five or more years. Or conversely, of all the people I’ve rejected because they were below my cut-off, how many of them would have qualified a year later or maybe even qualified the following month. We’ve done some research recently to gain a better understanding of the impact of score migration, given the economic downturn. What we found was that in aggregate, there is not a ton of change going on. Because as consumers move up or down in their score, the overall average shift tends to be minimal. However, when we’ve tracked this on a quarterly basis into score bands or even at a consumer level, the shift is more meaningful. The general trend is that the VantageScore® credit score “A” band, or best scorers, has been shrinking over time, while the VantageScore® credit score “D” & “F” bands, lower scorers, has grown over time. For instance, in 2010 Q4, the amount of consumers in VantageScore® credit score A was the lowest it has been in the past three years. Conversely, the number of consumers falling into the VantageScore® credit score “D” & “F” bands are the highest they have been during that same time period. This constant shift in credit scores, driven by changes in a consumer’s credit file, can impact risk levels beyond the initial point of applicant approval. For this reason, we recommend updating and refreshing scores on a very regular basis, along with regular scorecard monitoring, to ensure that risk propensity and the offering continue to be appropriately aligned with one another.