The Fed’s Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) and Capital Plan Review (CapPR) stress scenarios depict a severe recession that, although unlikely, the largest U.S. banks must now account for in their capital planning process.  The bank holding companies’ ability to maintain adequate capital reserves, while managing the risk levels of growing portfolios are key to staying within the stress test parameters and meeting liquidity requirements. While each banks’ portfolios will perform differently, as a whole, the delinquency performance of major products such as Auto, Bankcard and Mortgage continues to perform well.   Here is a comparison between the latest quarter results and two years ago from the Experian – Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports.   Although not a clear indication of how well a bank will perform against the hypothetical scenario of the stress tests, measures such as Probability of Default, Loss Given Default and Exposure at Default to indicate a bank’s risk may be dramatically improved from just a few years ago given recent delinquency trends in core portfolios. Recently we released a white paper that provides an introduction to Basel III regulation and discusses some of its impact on banks and the banking system.  We also present a real business case showing how organizations turn these regulatory challenges into buisness opportunities by optimizing their credit strategies.   Download the paper – Creating value in challenging times: An innovative approach to Basel III compliance.  

By: Shannon Lois These are challenging times for large financial institutions. Still feeling the impact from the financial crisis of 2007, the banking industry must endure increased oversight, declining margins, and fierce competition—all in a lackluster economy. Financial institutions are especially subject to closer regulatory scrutiny. As part of this stepped-up oversight, the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) conducts annual assessments, including  “stress tests”, of the capital planning processes and capital adequacy of BHCs to ensure that these institutions can continue operations in the event of economic distress. The Fed expects banks to have credible plans, which are evaluated across a range of criteria, showing that they have adequate capital to continue to lend, even under adverse economic conditions. Minimum capital standards are governed by both the FRB and under Basel III. The International Basel Committee established the Basel accords to provide revised safeguards following the financial crisis, as an effort to ensure that banks met capital requirements and were not overly leveraged. Using input data provided by the BHCs themselves, FRB analysts have developed stress scenario methodology for banks to follow. These models generate loss estimates and post-stress capital ratios. The CCAR includes a somewhat unnerving hypothetical scenario that depicts a severe recession in the U.S. economy with an unemployment rate of 13%, a 50% drop in equity prices, and 21% decline in housing market. Stress testing is intended to measure how well a bank could endure this gloomy picture. Between meeting the compliance requirements of both BASEL III and the Federal Reserve’s Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR), financial institutions commit sizeable time and resources to administrative tasks that offer few easily quantifiable returns. Nevertheless—in addition to ensuring they don’t suddenly discover themselves in a trillion-dollar hole—these audit responsibilities do offer some other benefits and considerations.

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