By: Kari Michel In January, Experian announced the inclusion of positive rental data from its RentBureau division into the traditional credit file. This is great news for an estimated 50 million underbanked consumers – everyone from college students and recent graduates to immigrants – to build credit with continuous on-time rental payments. With approximately 1/3 of Americans renting, lenders who are using VantageScore will benefit from the inclusion of RentBureau data into the score calculation.  VantageScore from Experian is able to both enhance its predictive ability for those that can already be scored as well as provide scores for those that previously could not be scored. With the inclusion of RentBureau data, 34% of thin file consumers increased their score from an ‘F’ (VantageScore 501 – 599) to a ‘D’ (VantageScore 600 – 699). For those consumers that did not have a prior credit history, 70% of them were able to be scored after the inclusion of RentBureau data into the credit repository.  As a result, fewer consumers will get a “no hit” returned to lenders during a credit inquiry. Lenders will now have a comprehensive understanding of a consumer’s total monthly obligations to assist with offering credit to emerging consumers.

I love a good analogy, and living in Southern California, lately I’ve been thinking a lot about earthquakes, and how lenders might want to start thinking like seismologists when considering the risk levels in their portfolios. Currently, scientists that study earthquakes review mountains of data around fault movement, tidal forces, even animal behavior, all in an attempt to find a concrete predictor of ‘the big one’. Small tremors are inputs, but the focus is on predicting and preparing for the large shock and impact of large earthquakes. Credit risk modeling, conversely, seems to focus on predicting the tremors, (risk scores that predict the risk of individual default) and less so the large-shock risk to the portfolio. So what are lenders doing to forecast ‘the big one’?  Lenders are building sophisticated models that contemplate the likelihood of the big event – developing risk models and econometric models that look at loan repayment, house prices, unemployment rates – all in an attempt to be ahead of the credit version of ‘the big one’.  This type of model and perspective is at a nascent stage for many lenders, but like the issues facing the people of Southern California, preparing for the big-one is an essential part of every lender’s planning in today’s economy.

Exciting research leveraging Experian’s fraud analytics and credit risk modeling are now enabling deposit institutions to understand the impacts of first party fraud and identity theft on their portfolios. Historically, deposit institutions have not considered application fraud to be a major concern and legislation regarding overdraft fees and the opt-in provision for overdraft services will reduce a deposit customer’s ability to spend the bank’s money; however, a determined thief can still: kite checks to commit first party fraud perpetrate an account takeover/identity theft   The result is that deposit institutions will continue to face losses that can be prevented using fraud best practices. The challenge for the institution is knowing whether it is facing first party fraud or identity theft. Increasingly, deposit institutions are turning to Experian to analyze customers that create losses early in the account life cycle in order to make the right modifications to their acquisitions strategies.  Using a combination of fraud analytics built to target specific types of fraud trends, deposit institutions can get a clear picture of the type of behavior that is generating their losses. This type of analysis is quickly climbing the list of fraud best-practices. Armed with the right diagnosis, deposit institutions can respond by prioritizing the right set of fraud alerts.