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Student loan debt — headline or headache?

Published: July 10, 2017 by Mark Soffietti

School’s out, and graduation brings excitement, anticipation and bills. Oh, boy, here come the student loans. Are graduates ready for the bills? Even before they have a job lined up?

With lots of attention from the media, I was interested in analyzing student loan debt to see if this is a true issue or just a headline grab.

There’s no shortage of headlines alluding to a student loan crisis:

Certainly sounds like a crisis.

However, I’m a data guy, so let’s look at the data.

Pulling from our data, I analyzed student loan trades for the last four years starting with outstanding debt — which grew 21 percent since 2013 to reach a high of $1.49 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2016.

I then drilled down and looked at just student loan trades.

Created with Highstock 5.0.7Total Number of Student Loans TradesStudent Loan Total TradesNumber of trades in millions174,961,380174,961,380182,125,450182,125,450184,229,650184,229,650181,228,130181,228,130Q4 2013Q4 2014Q4 2015Q4 2016025M50M75M100M125M150M175M200MSource: Experian

Over the past four years, student loan trades grew 4 percent, but saw a slight decline between 2015 and 2016. The number of trades isn’t growing as fast as the amount of money that people need.

The average balance per trade grew 17 percent to $8,210. Either people are not saving enough for college or the price of school is outpacing the amount people are saving.

I shifted the data and looked at the individual consumer rather than the trade level.

Created with Highstock 5.0.7Student Loan Average Balance per Trade4.044.043.933.933.893.893.853.85Q4 2013Q4 2014Q4 2015Q4 201600.511.522.533.544.5Source: Experian

The number of overall student loan trades per consumer is down to 3.85, a decrease of 5 percent over the last four years. This is explained by an increase in loan consolidations as well as the better planning by students so that they don’t have to take more student loans in the same year.

Lastly, I looked at the average balance per consumer. This is the amount that consumers, on average, owe for their student loan trades.

Created with Highstock 5.0.7Balance in thousands ($)Quarterly $USD Debt per ConsumerQ4 Student Loan TrendsAverage Student Loan Debt Balance per Consumer27,93427,93429,22629,22630,52330,52332,06132,061Q4 2013Q4 2014Q4 2015Q4 201605,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000Source: Experian

Here we see a growth of 15 percent over the last four years. At the end of 2016, the average person with a student loan balance had just over $32,000 outstanding.

While this is a large increase, we should compare it with other purchases: This balance is no more than a person purchasing a brand-new car without a down payment.

While we’re seeing an increase in overall outstanding debt and individual loan balances, I’m not yet agreeing that this is the crisis the media portrays. If students are educated about the debt that they’re taking out and making sure that they’re able to repay it, the student loan market is performing as it should.

It’s our job to help educate students and their families about making good financial decisions. These discussions need to be had before debt is taken out, so it’s not a shock to the student upon graduation.

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$1.3 trillion. 41.1 million Americans. $31,590. These are the growing numbers associated with student loan debt in the United States: $1.3 trillion in outstanding student loans, spread across 41.1 million people, who are leaving college with an average balance of $31,590. The numbers are staggering, and for the first time student loan debt is playing a prominent role in a presidential election. For all of their differences, presidential nominees Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump seem to agree on one thing: student loan debt is a crushing burden. Both candidates have proposed solutions for student lending. Clinton’s “New College Compact” would allow borrowers to refinance their student loans at current rates available to students taking out new loans. She also wants to reduce interest rates on new student loans, and make it easier for borrowers to enroll in income-driven repayment programs that would cap monthly payments at 10 percent of discretionary income. Trump proposes giving more oversight to colleges to decide whether to grant loans to students based on their prospective major. The plan would also give private banks oversight over government-backed student loans—reversing a 2010 decision under President Obama to make the federal government the lender. Neither candidate, however, has outlined a solution for taming growing tuition costs. Tuition expenses are up 1,225 percent over the past 36 years, outpacing medical costs (634 percent rise) and the consumer price index (279 percent) over the same period, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. So it’s not surprising an Experian study shows the student loan rate has grown five percent in the past three years. What is surprising is the number of people and the average age of those people holding student loans. Experian found: 20 percent of people with a credit file hold a student loan that is being repaid or deferred. The average age of a consumer with a student loan is 37, with an average income of $47,200 compared to 53.8 and an average income is $44,500 for consumers without a student loan. The average age of a consumer with at least one deferred student loan is 32.7 with an average income of $32,900 compared to 38.7 and an average income of $53,200 for consumers with at least one non-deferred student loan. Candidate proposals aside, one thing is certain: student loan debt has a very real impact on the daily lives of people, many of whom have delayed buying homes, starting families, and saving for retirement. Until policymakers find a way to address bloated tuitions and student debt, it will take many longer to realize their dreams.

Published: November 1, 2016 by Sacha Ricarte

The numbers are staggering: more than $1.2 trillion in outstanding student loan debt, 40 million borrowers, and an average balance of $29,000. With Millennials exiting college and buried in debt, it’s no surprise they are postponing marriage, having babies, home purchases and other major life events. While the student loan issue has been looming for years, the magnitude is now taking center stage. All of the 2016 presidential contenders have an opinion, and many are starting to propose solutions – some going as far as to call for “debt-free college.” The issue has also caught the eye of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). In its 2014 report, the CFPB stated one in four recent college graduates is either unemployed or underemployed. They also stated when faced with the inability to repay their debt, students lack payment options and are unclear as to how to resolve their debt. There is a bright spot. Experian reported new findings stating that among adults 18 to 34 years of age, the average credit score of those who had at least one open student loan account was 640, 20 points higher than others in their age group. So, if paid in a timely manner, student loans can help younger people establish a decent credit history before they go on to buy things like homes and cars. Still, education is key. Today, only 24 U.S. states require some form of financial literacy to be included in their high school course work, with only four states (Utah, Montana, Tennessee and Virginia) devoting a full semester to a personal finance course. Education is needed before students start diving into the student loan scene, and also after they graduate, to ensure they understand their repayment options and obligations. The CFPB is calling on all parties (universities, colleges, private lenders, advocates, policy makers and even family members) to get involved. Providing financial education, financial literacy, repayment options, deferral methods and income calculators are all needed to tackle this growing problem. The Great Recession and slow recovery brought home the importance of a college degree in today’s economy for many Americans. Bachelor’s degree recipients fared much better than their counterparts who only finished high school. The question becomes how to fund it, and make sure students who rely on loans understand the finances attached to this milestone investment. Learn more about Experian’s student debt trends and credit education in The Increasing Need for Consumer Credit Education: A Review of Student Debt.

Published: December 16, 2015 by Kerry Rivera

Industry leading consumer credit trend data The complete picture of consumer credit trends from Experian’s database of over 230 million consumers Today we launched The Experian Market Intelligence Brief, a new quarterly report that includes more than 70 charts and data trends on loan originations, outstanding loans and delinquency performance metrics spanning three years. The report can benefit any institution and inform its strategic initiatives with industry leading consumer credit trend data across eight consumer credit segments including: Auto Bankcard Mortgage HELOC Home-equity loan Personal loan Retail card Student loan Some examples of the trends that The Experian Market Intelligence Brief provides this quarter include: Auto and student loan debt are both near the $1 trillion level The retail credit card average limit is at $2,259, the highest it has been in three years Personal loan originations are at their highest levels in three years, reaching $32.9 billion The report identifies which segments are best positioned for growth, compares year-over-year results to gauge segment health, measures the impact different consumer segments have on each segment, and analyzes delinquency trends and payment behavior to alleviate and anticipate risk. The data in the report is based on aggregated summaries of millions of depersonalized credit trade files. The new report is available for $1,195 at www.experian.com/market-intelligence-brief.

Published: September 23, 2015 by Matt Tatham

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