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It’s obvious that 2020 was a year of unprecedented change and created brand new opportunities for fraud. In 2021, fraudsters will continue to iterate on new and old methods of attack, requiring businesses to remain flexible and proactive to prevent losses. We created the 2021 Future of Fraud Forecast to help businesses anticipate new types of fraud and prepare and protect consumers on the road ahead. Here are the trends we expect to see over the coming year: Putting a Face to Frankenstein IDs: Synthetic identity fraud will start to rely on “Frankenstein faces” for biometric verification. “Too Good to Be True” COVID Solutions: The promise of at-home test kits, vaccines and treatments will be used as means for sophisticated phishing and social engineering schemes. Stimulus Fraud Activity, Round Two: Fraudsters will take advantage of additional stimulus funding by using stolen data to intercept payments. Say ‘Hello’ to Constant Automated Attacks: Once the stimulus fraud attacks run their course, hackers will increasingly turn to automated methods. Survival of the Fittest for Small Businesses: In 2021, businesses with lackluster fraud prevention tools will suffer large financial losses. To learn more about how to protect your business and customers, download the Future of Fraud Forecast and check out Experian’s fraud prevention solutions. Future of Fraud Forecast Request a call

It goes without saying that the automotive industry has been through a lot this past year. Initially hit hard during the early days of COVID-19, it has been resilient and shows signs of rebounding. But despite the recovery, it’s hard to overlook the fact that the automotive industry and the rest of the economy have encountered two large-scale downturns within the last 12 years. And while the underlying factors behind the Great Recession and COVID-19 are considerably different, auto dealers are likely left wondering how to continue to stimulate the recovery, but more importantly, protect and prepare themselves from future downturns. In short, the answer is data. If we’ve learned anything from the unprecedented events of this year, it’s that trends can shift and change rapidly. We’ve observed correlations between certain economic indicators and the potential impact to the industry. Now, more than ever, dealers should be leaning into data to stay close to trends in real-time, adjusting strategy accordingly. It might feel overwhelming to stay on top of it all, but dealers don’t have to face it alone. To help dealers maximize data, we launched Experian Automotive Market Insights. The dashboard provides a variety of insights, including auction volume by region, vehicles coming off-lease, off-loan or have positive equity, correlations between economic events and finance trends. In addition, dealers can use a range of economic indicators to scenario plan and gauge how far in advance these trends may impact the automotive industry. This level of information can help auto dealers tackle their biggest challenges and create a more comprehensive strategy for their businesses. They can use the insights in a variety of ways, such as how to restock amid inventory shortages or uncover conquest opportunities to drive sales growth. For example, since the beginning of September, the highest volumes of vehicles at auction are in the central, east, southeast and southwest regions—all above 137,500 units. Of course, as this year has proven, it’s not enough to just tackle the immediate challenges. Dealers will also need to address and prepare for larger economic issues before they occur. For instance, understanding how unemployment may potentially alter vehicle registrations. Based on Experian data, the lag time between the peak of unemployment and decline in vehicle registrations was approximately one month. This level of insight provides dealers with an opportunity to adjust their strategies and budgets ahead of economic crises. We can’t predict the future, but we can use history to inform our decisions moving forward. While every economic downturn is different, understanding how certain events impact the automotive market is important for dealers to prepare their strategies. Leveraging data is crucial for staying on top of trends, and pivoting business decisions in challenging times. Visit Experian Automotive Market Insights for more information.

Credit cards are the most widely available credit products offered to millions of consumers today. For many consumers, owning a credit card is a relatively simple step toward establishing credit history and obtaining access to other lending products later in life. For credit unions, offering a credit card to members expands and enriches the credit relationship. In today’s environment, some credit unions don’t view credit cards as an integral part of their member service. I propose that the benefits of credit cards in a credit union portfolio are impactful, meaningful and fully align to member outreach and community service. A high-level review of risk-adjusted yields across three of the most common retail products offered by credit unions show that credit cards can be very profitable. The average APR of credit cards as of Q3 2020 is just slightly below personal loans. While charge-offs as a percentage of balances are more than double of personal loans, the estimated risk-adjusted yield is still elevated and is 1.8 times higher than auto loan and leases. See Table 1. Table 1. Estimated average risk-adjusted yield for auto loan and lease, personal loan, and credit card for credit unions Auto loan and lease Personal loan Credit card Average APR 5.21% 12.05% 11.26% Charge-offs as % of balances (annualized) 0.28% 0.89% 1.98% Risk-adjusted yield 4.93% 11.16% 9.28% Notes: Average APR of auto loans and leases, personal loans, and charge-off information as of Q3 2020 was extracted from Experian-Oliver Wyman IntelliViewSM Market Intelligence Reports. IntelliView Market Intelligence Reports, Dec. 22, 2020, experian.com/decision-analytics/market-intelligence/intelliview. Average APR of credit card as of Q3 2020 was extracted from National Credit Union Administration website. Credit Union and Bank Rates 2020 Q3, Dec. 22, 2020, https://www.ncua.gov/analysis/cuso-economic-data/credit-union-bank-rates/credit-union-and-bank-rates-2020-q3. Estimated risk-adjusted yield is calculated as the difference between average APR and charge-offs. A profitable retail product allows a credit union to share those profits back with members consistent with its mission of promoting and supporting the financial health and well-being of its members. Credit cards provide diversification of income streams. Income diversification provides a level of stability across cyclical economic conditions when some types of credit exposures may perform poorly, while others may be more stable. When combined with sound and effective risk governance, credit diversification allows lenders to mitigate levels of concentration risks in their aggregate portfolio. Offering credit cards to members is one avenue to grow loan volume and achieve scale that’s sufficiently manageable for credit unions. Scale is particularly important today as it’s needed to fund technology investments. The pandemic accelerated the massive movement toward digital engagement, and scale makes technology investments more cost-effective. When lenders become more productive and efficient, they further lower the cost of credit products to members. (Stovall, Nathan. Dec. 14, 2020. Desire to compete with megabanks driving more U.S. regional bank M&A — KBW CE blog. https://platform.mi.spglobal.com/web/client?auth=inherit#news/.) The barriers to offering credit cards have moderately declined. Technology partners, payment processors and specialized industry companies are available in the marketplace. The biggest challenge for credit unions and lenders is credit risk management. To be profitable and to stay relevant, credit cards require a relatively sophisticated risk management framework of underwriting criteria, pricing, credit line management, operations and marketing. Industry and specialized support for launching and managing credit cards is widely available and accessible. Analytics play an essential role in managing credit cards. With an average active life of approximately five years, credit card portfolios need regular and periodic performance reviews to manage inherent risk and to identify opportunities for growth and profitability. Account management for credit cards is equally as important as underwriting. Credit line management, authorization, activation and retention have significant impact to the performance of existing accounts. Continuous engagement with members is critical and has taken on a new meaning lately. Credit cards provide an opportunity to engage members, to grow lending relationships and to support financial well-being. Marketing and meaningful card offers drive card usage and relevance. They’re critical components in customer communication and service. The benefits of credit cards contribute positively to a credit union portfolio. With sound and effective risk management practices, credit cards are profitable, help diversify income streams, grow loan volume and support member credit needs.


