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As we near the beginning of 2021, industry pundits and analysts are keen to assess the impact of COVID-19, but it may take some time for the full picture to unfold. We’ve seen the market shift and evolve over the past few months, and one of the more notable shifts has been the reduction in leasing. The percentage of new leased vehicles has hovered around 30% since 2015 but has declined considerably since the pandemic. According to Experian’s Q3 2020 State of the Automotive Finance Market report, 26.20% of all new vehicles are leased compared to 30.27% last year. And it’s important to note, the drop in leasing can be seen across all borrower types. Near prime consumers saw the largest decrease in leasing, dropping from 30.79% last year to 27.17% in Q3 2020. Meanwhile, the percentage of prime-plus consumers opting to lease, declined 3.28 percentage points to 31.54%. It begs the question, what does this mean for the automotive industry down the road? What’s Driving the Reduction? To understand the potential long-term impacts, we first need to take a look at the causes for reduction. At the onset of the pandemic, factories were forced to shut down, resulting in inventory shortages. In addition, amid business restrictions and stay-at-home orders, some consumers chose to extend their leases rather than trade in for a new one. This was most apparent in April, May and June, when leasing hovered between 23.3% and 24%; it has since picked up as business restrictions have eased in some areas. Impacts on Used Inventory With inventory shortages already hampering the new vehicle market, an extended reduction in leasing could have implications on used vehicle inventory. Fewer leased vehicles traded in means fewer vehicles (and more importantly, fewer late model vehicles) making their way back to dealer lots. Depending on how quickly leasing can recover, the impact of on used vehicle inventory could reverberate for some time. Fortunately, we’ve seen leasing trend upwards. Looking back to Q1 2020, leasing made up 30.19% of all new vehicles financed, but dropped to 25.81% in Q2 when the brunt of COVID-19 was felt by the industry. That percentage has trickled back up to 26.20% in Q3 2020. We don’t know what the future holds, but if this trend continues, we could potentially see leasing return to an expected rate. COVID-19 has completely changed our expectations for this year, however, we have begun seeing the industry rebound. While it’s difficult to know for certain what the automotive industry will look like in the next few years, staying close to the trends will help the industry adapt to the changes and navigate the next few months and beyond. To view the full Q3 2020 State of the Automotive Finance Market report, click here.

It’s clear that the digital transformation we experienced this year is here to stay. While there are many positives associated with this transformation – innovation, new ways to work, and greater online connectedness – it’s important that we review the risks associated with these trends as well. In late 2019 and throughout 2020, Experian surveyed consumers and businesses. We asked about online habits, expectations for information security and plans for future spending. Unsurprisingly, about half of consumers think they’ll continue to spend more online in the coming year. Those same consumers now have a higher expectation for their online experience than before the onset of COVID-19. Hand-in-hand with the online activity trends come increased risks associated with identity theft and fraud as criminals find new chances to steal information. In response to both of these trends, businesses and consumers want a balance between security and convenience. Our latest trends report dives into the new opportunities 2020 has created for fraud, and the opportunities to prevent identity theft or manipulation and the associated losses while building stronger relationships. Download the full North America Trends Report for a look into North American trends over the last year and to learn how fraud prevention and positive customer relationships are actually two sides of the same coin. North America Trends Report

The automotive industry has been through it’s fair share of challenges over the years. COVID-19 may have taken the industry by surprise, but as with the other downturns we’ve seen, it’s showing strong signs of rebounding. Particularly in the third quarter of 2020, there have been a number of positive trends. Things aren’t quite back to normal, as loan volume was still down in Q3 2020. However, there was growth in overall loan balances, which grew 2.8%, bringing outstanding loan balances to $1.2 trillion. Despite volume decreases, overall, the industry continued to move forward at a steady pace. Here are some of the notable findings from Q3 2020. Subprime originations reach record lows Subprime originations comprised only 17.53% of originations in Q3 2020, which is a historic low. While it may be tempting to point to COVID-19 as the singular reason, it’s likely driven by a combination of factors. COVID-19 has noticeably impacted subprime originations, but these decreases have been ongoing for some time. In Q3 2015, total subprime made up 22.9% of originations and has steadily decreased since then. Additionally, since 2015, we’ve seen steady increases in overall credit quality, so there are fewer consumers who fall into the subprime category. Longer-term loans help offset average payments The average new vehicle loan amount in Q3 2020 was $34,635, which was more than a $2,000 increase year-over-year. Average used vehicle loan amounts also increased, but at a more modest rate of $945, bringing the average to $21,438 in Q3 2020. With large increases in average loan amounts, there’s often an assumption that average payments will follow suit, but that wasn’t the case: the average new vehicle monthly payment only saw an $11 increase year-over-year to $563, while average used vehicle payments increased $6 to $397. Why didn’t we see larger spikes in average payments? There are two main factors: lower interest rates, and longer loan terms. Average interest rates for new vehicle loans dropped from 5.38% in Q3 2019 to 4.22% in Q3 2020, and from 9.09% to 8.43% for used vehicle loans in the same time period. Average loan terms extended slightly to 69.68 months for new vehicles and 65.15 months for used. Both have an impact on payment amount, as the longer you stretch out the loan, when combined with lower interest rates, can help keep monthly payments manageable. The trends outlined here are just a snapshot of the automotive industry in Q3 2020, but it paints a positive picture. Data will continue to play a critical role in the country’s continued economic recovery, as it empowers lenders and dealers to make more informed decisions and ensure they have the right options available for consumers. To view the full Q3 2020 State of the Automotive Finance Market report, click here.


