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Consumer behavior and payment trends are constantly evolving, particularly in a rapidly changing economic environment. Faced with changing demands, including an accelerated shift to digital communications, and new regulatory rules, debt collectors must adapt to advance in the new collections landscape. According to Experian research, as of August, the U.S. unemployment rate was at 8.4%, with numerous states still having employment declines over 10%. These triggers, along with other recent statistics, signal a greater likelihood of consumers falling delinquent on loans and credit card payments. The issue for debt collectors? Many debt collection departments and agencies are not equipped to properly handle the uptick in collection volumes. By refining your process and capabilities to meet today’s demands, you can increase the success rate of your debt collection efforts. Join Denise McKendall, Experian’s Director of Collection Solutions, and Craig Wilson, Senior Director of Decision Analytics, during our live webinar, "Adapting to the New Collections Landscape," on October 21 at 10:00 a.m. PT. Our expert speakers will provide a view of the current collections environment and share insights on how to best adapt. The agenda includes: Meeting today’s collections challenges A Look at the state of the market Devising strategies and solving collections problems across the debt lifecycle Register now

Profitability analysis is one of the most powerful analytics tools in business and strategy development. Yet it’s underrated, deemed too complicated and often ignored. A chief lending officer may state that the goal of strategy development is to increase approvals or to reduce losses. Each one of these goals has an impact generally inversely on each other. That impact may be consequential, and evaluating the effects requires deeper thought and discipline. I propose that the benefits of a profitability analysis in strategy development are worth the additional effort, time and cost. Profitability analysis provides a disciplined framework for making business decisions. For financial companies, a simple profit and loss (P&L) statement will identify interest income, subtract losses and arrive at a risk-adjusted yield. A more robust P&L statement will include interest expense, loss reserves, recovery, fees and other income, operating expenses, other cost per account, and net income. Whether simplified or fully loaded, a P&L analysis used in strategy development must provide a clear and informative representation of key performance metrics and risks. The most important benefit of a profitability analysis is its inherent ability to quantify the trade-offs between risk and rewards. In the P&L terminology, we mean the trade-off between expenses and revenue or losses and interest income. Understanding trade-offs allows companies to make informed decisions and explore serious alternatives. The net income is a concise and elegant metric that captures the impact of various and sometimes competing business objectives. Consider different divisions within a financial organization. Each division has its own specific and measurable objective. Marketing’s goal is to increase loan approvals while Risk is tasked with managing losses. Operations looks to improve efficiencies while IT aims to provide stable, reliable and accurate systems infrastructure. Legal and Compliance ensure regulatory compliance across the entire organization. Each division working to achieve its objectives creates externalities — each division’s actions may not fully incorporate costs imposed on other divisions. For example, targeting highly responsive consumers for a loan product achieves higher loan approvals and may in turn lead to higher credit risk losses. A P&L analysis imposes the discipline for each division to internalize costs and lead to a favorable and efficient outcome for the organization. The challenge with profitability analysis in strategy development is how to develop a good P&L statement. We look to historical data to define assumptions and calibrate inputs to the P&L. There will be uncertainty and concerns regarding the reliability and quality of such data. Organizations don’t regularly conduct test and control experiments or champion and challenger strategies that provide actual performance information on specific areas of studies. Though imperfect, historical data provides a starting foundation for profitability analysis. We augment historical data with predictive credit attributes, industry experience and understanding consumer behavior and incentives. For example, to estimate interest income we may utilize estimated interest rates combined with balance propensity behavior, such as a balance revolver or transactor. To estimate losses on declined population that may be considered for approval, we infer on-us performance using off-us performance with other lenders. Defining assumptions is tedious, hard work and full of uncertainty. This exercise once again imposes the discipline required of organizations to know in detail the characteristics of their products and businesses that make them relevant to consumers. We generate P&L simulations using a set of assumptions, acknowledge the data limitations and evaluate recommendations. A profitability analysis is useful in both times of economic expansion and contraction. A P&L analysis is valuable when evaluating strategies across the customer life cycle. Remember, we live in a world of trade-offs and choices are inevitable. In the prospecting and acquisition life cycle, a P&L analysis provides insights on approval expansion and the consequences of higher credit losses. Alternatively, tighter lending criteria will have a direct impact on balance growth and interest income with lower losses. In account management, a P&L analysis provides estimates on expanded account authorization limits and the effect on activation and usage. In collections, a P&L analysis provides valuation on recoveries and operational costs. These various assessments are quantified in the P&L and allows the organization to identify other mechanisms such as marketing campaigns, customer services or technology investments in support of the organization’s goals and mission. Organizations face a full spectrum of opportunities and risks. We propose a profitability analysis to evaluate business trade-offs, navigate the marketplace, and continue to provide relevant financial products and services to consumers and businesses. Learn more

Affordability has been the topic of conversation across the automotive industry over the past several years, and with COVID-19, the spotlight is even brighter, particularly as average loan amounts continue to grow. To find ways to stay within budget, many consumers were swayed by manufacturer incentives, while others have stretched their loan terms to make their monthly payments manageable. In fact, the average new vehicle loan term reached 71.54 months in Q2 2020, up from 67.97 months during the same quarter just five years ago. On the surface, some are concerned about the extension of loan terms, as it can make vehicles more expensive in the long run or cause financial hardship for consumers, but that may not necessarily be the case. Prime consumers seek longer term new loans While the average loan term for a new vehicle is almost six years, not every consumer is choosing long term financing. The consumers with the highest increase in loan terms fell into low-risk categories. For instance, super prime consumers showed the largest increase of 3.71 months compared to last year, while prime consumers increased their loan terms by 2.57 months in the same time frame. In addition, the longest loans—those with 85-96-month terms—belonged to consumers with an average credit score of 720 in Q2 2020, up from 703 one year ago. Some industry pundits believe longer term loans open consumers up to potential default, but the fact that low-risk consumers account for the most significant increases in terms, should quell some of the concern. Longer Terms Keep Monthly Payments Down The extension of loan terms coincides with significant increases in the average loan amount for a new vehicle—which increased nearly $4,000 in Q2 2020. Much of that increase has been driven by consumer preferences as full-sized pickups became the most financed new vehicle. Even with an increase in loan amounts, when combined with extended terms, monthly payments for new loans have only increased slightly and have remained relatively on par with last year. The average monthly payment increased $18 year-over-year, with the average monthly payment coming in at $568. To understand the impact that extended loan terms can have on the monthly payment, let’s take the average loan amount for a new vehicle ($36,072) and the average interest rate (5.15%). With 60-month terms, the monthly payment would be approximately $683, while with 72-month terms, the monthly payment would cost about $583. So, while there is an increase in new loan amounts, consumers are finding ways to manage their payments, and longer loan terms have played a significant role in that. Making Financing a Vehicle More Affordable Another contributing factor that minimizes the likelihood of default with longer loans is lower interest rates. The average interest rate for a new vehicle is 5.15% as of Q2 2020, down from 6.25% in Q2 2019. That means, choosing a longer-term loan won’t have the same impact as previous years. As consumers’ financial situations will likely remain dynamic in the coming months, lenders should work with consumers to ensure that their loan options fit their needs, to make vehicle purchases more enticing and help them stay within budget. Consumers are taking advantage of new car incentives, low interest rates and longer-term loans in order to ensure that their vehicle purchase is manageable. But, with the long-term effects of COVID-19 still unknown, it’s important for lenders to ensure they’re helping consumers make the best possible decisions. Understanding trends in the auto finance market can better position lenders and dealers to provide the best, most affordable options for each consumer. To view the full Q2 2020 State of the Automotive Finance Market report, click here.


