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In 2015, U.S. card issuers raced to start issuing EMV (Europay, Mastercard, and Visa) payment cards to take advantage of the new fraud prevention technology. Counterfeit credit card fraud rose by nearly 40% from 2014 to 2016, (Aite Group, 2017) fueled by bad actors trying to maximize their return on compromised payment card data. Today, we anticipate a similar tsunami of fraud ahead of the Social Security Administration (SSA) rollout of electronic Consent Based Social Security Number Verification (eCBSV). Synthetic identities, defined as fictitious identities existing only on paper, have been a continual challenge for financial institutions. These identities slip past traditional account opening identity checks and can sit silently in portfolios performing exceptionally well, maximizing credit exposure over time. As synthetic identities mature, they may be used to farm new synthetics through authorized user additions, increasing the overall exposure and potential for financial gain. This cycle continues until the bad actor decides to cash out, often aggressively using entire credit lines and overdrawing deposit accounts, before disappearing without a trace. The ongoing challenges faced by financial institutions have been recognized and the SSA has created an electronic Consent Based Social Security Number Verification process to protect vulnerable populations. This process allows financial institutions to verify that the Social Security number (SSN) being used by an applicant or customer matches the name. This emerging capability to verify SSN issuance will drastically improve the ability to detect synthetic identities. In response, it is expected that bad actors who have spent months, if not years, creating and maturing synthetic identities will look to monetize these efforts in the upcoming months, before eCBSV is more widely adopted. Compounding the anticipated synthetic identity fraud spike resulting from eCBSV, financial institutions’ consumer-friendly responses to COVID-19 may prove to be a lucrative incentive for bad actors to cash out on their existing synthetic identities. A combination of expanded allowances for exceeding credit limits, more generous overdraft policies, loosened payment strategies, and relaxed collection efforts provide the opportunity for more financial gain. Deteriorating performance may be disguised by the anticipation of increased credit risk, allowing these accounts to remain undetected on their path to bust out. While responding to consumers’ requests for assistance and implementing new, consumer-friendly policies and practices to aid in impacts from COVID-19, financial institutions should not overlook opportunities to layer in fraud risk detection and mitigation efforts. Practicing synthetic identity detection and risk mitigation begins in account opening. But it doesn’t stop there. A strong synthetic identity protection plan continues throughout the account life cycle. Portfolio management efforts that include synthetic identity risk evaluation at key control points are critical for detecting accounts that are on the verge of going bad. Financial institutions can protect themselves by incorporating a balance of detection efforts with appropriate risk actions and authentication measures. Understanding their portfolio is a critical first step, allowing them to find patterns of identity evolution, usage, and connections to other consumers that can indicate potential risk of fraud. Once risk tiers are established within the portfolio, existing controls can help catch bad accounts and minimize the resulting losses. For example, including scores designed to determine the risk of synthetic identity, and bust out scores, can identify seemingly good customers who are beginning to display risky tendencies or attempting to farm new synthetic identities. While we continue to see financial institutions focus on customer experience, especially in times of uncertainty, it is paramount that these efforts are not undermined by bad actors looking to exploit assistance programs. Layering in contextual risk assessments throughout the lifecycle of financial accounts will allow organizations to continue to provide excellent service to good customers while reducing the increasing risk of synthetic identity fraud loss. Prevent SID

Assessing the strength of the automotive and mortgage industries has become somewhat of a pastime for those determining the long-term effects of COVID-19. And the early assessment, at least for the automotive industry, should read, “despite significant challenges at the onset of the pandemic, the industry continues to rebound.” While there are many indicators to gauge performance, new and used vehicle registrations are near the top. In April, new and used vehicle registrations were down 50.8 percent and 54 percent, respectively, compared to the previous year—we’ve since seen the numbers slowly return to par. New and used vehicle registrations were down 33.3 percent and 32.4 percent in May; however new registrations were only down 10.6 percent in June, while used registrations saw 0.2 percent growth. It’s difficult to pinpoint the exact reasoning for the gradual return in vehicle sales over the past few months, but we would be remiss not to acknowledge the apparent impact of automaker incentives. The option for car shoppers to take advantage of low rates or cash incentives has certainly spurred the industry forward—it’s even had an impact on how car shoppers are purchasing vehicles. In March, loans accounted for 55.7 percent of transactions; that percentage have since grown in April (63.8 percent), May (66.1 percent) and June (65.2 percent). In addition, leasing has hovered around 23 and 24 percent during April-June; well-below the 30 percent mark over the past several years—however, that may be attributed to the inability of so many consumers to visit a dealership to trade-in leases, rather than car shoppers shifting away from the product. Consumers opt for affordability Not unlike the car-shopping environment prior to the pandemic, consumers continue to choose the most vehicle at the most affordable price. Automaker incentives have likely shifted many prime consumers back into the new vehicle market. In April, prime borrowers accounted for 71.1 percent of new vehicle loans, while in May, that number jumped to 75.2 percent. In addition to the automaker incentives, low rates, less cash required upfront and the extension of loan terms have kept monthly payments at similar levels to the months leading up to the pandemic. In March, the average new loan amount was $33,788 and had an average monthly payment of $565. In April, the loan amount jumped to $36,556, but only saw a slight increase in monthly payment to $579—a similar pattern followed in May. While some consumers are unable to re-enter the vehicle market, others may have a newfound need. It’s important for consumers to understand the options available to them. Similarly, the more insight lenders have into the current market, the better positioned they will be to present car shoppers with financing options that meet consumers’ unique circumstances.

Achieving collection results within the subprime population was challenging enough before the current COVID-19 pandemic and will likely become more difficult now that the protections of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act have expired. To improve results within the subprime space, lenders need to have a well-established pre-delinquent contact optimization approach. While debt collection often elicits mixed feelings in consumers, it’s important to remember that lenders share the same goal of settling owed debts as quickly as possible, or better yet, avoiding collections altogether. The subprime lending population requires a distinct and nuanced approach. Often, this group includes consumers that are either new to credit as well as consumers that have fallen delinquent in the past suggesting more credit education, communication and support would be beneficial. Communication with subprime consumers should take place before their account is in arrears and be viewed as a “friendly reminder” rather than collection communication. This approach has several benefits, including: The communication is perceived as non-threatening, as it’s a simple notice of an upcoming payment. Subprime consumers often appreciate the reminder, as they have likely had difficulty qualifying for financing in the past and want to improve their credit score. It allows for confirmation of a consumer’s contact information (mainly their mobile number), so lenders can collect faster while reducing expenses and mitigating risk. When executed correctly, it would facilitate the resolution of any issues associated with the delivery of product or billing by offering a communication touchpoint. Additionally, touchpoints offer an opportunity to educate consumers on the importance of maintaining their credit. Customer segmentation is critical, as the way lenders approach the subprime population may not be perceived as positively with other borrowers. To enhance targeting efforts, lenders should leverage both internal and external attributes. Internal payment patterns can provide a more comprehensive view of how a customer manages their account. External bureau scores, like the VantageScore® credit score, and attribute sets that provide valuable insights into credit usage patterns, can significantly improve targeting. Additionally, the execution of the strategy in a test vs. control design, with progression to successive champion vs. challenger designs is critical to success and improved performance. Execution of the strategy should also be tested using various communication channels, including digital. From an efficiency standpoint, text and phone calls leveraging pre-recorded messages work well. If a consumer wishes to participate in settling their debt, they should be presented with self-service options. Another alternative is to leverage live operators, who can help with an uptick in collection activity. Testing different tranches of accounts based on segmentation criteria with the type of channel leveraged can significantly improve results, lower costs and increase customer retention. Learn About Trended Attributes Learn About Premier Attributes


