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As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to create uncertainty for the U.S. economy, different states and industries have seen many changes with each passing month. In our July edition of the State of the Economy report, written by Principal Economist Joseph Mayans, we’ll be breaking down the data that financial institutions can use to navigate a recovery. Labor markets and state-level employment impact Prior to the pandemic, unemployment in the U.S. was at a 50-year low, at an astonishing rate of 3.5%. Following the start of the pandemic, research shows that unemployment rose from 6.2 million in February to 20.5 million in May 2020, and sent the unemployment rate soaring to 14.7%. However, the data from last month’s State of the Economy Report revealed that the unemployment rate began to decline, with 46 states seeing rises in new job opportunities. Although unemployment started to increase, many states (like Nevada) saw a 25.3% unemployment rate statewide. The numbers for June are much more promising, and reveal a continuous uptick in the number of jobs added. The unemployment rate in the U.S. also fell from 13.3% to 11.1%. The impact to industries COVID-19 had major impacts on every industry in the U.S., with the leisure and hospitality industry being the hardest-hit at 7.7 millions job lost. According to CNBC, “The large number of layoffs in this industry led the U.S. economy to its worst month of job losses in modern history.” However, job growth for the leisure and hospitality industry began to gain momentum in May, with 1.2 million jobs added. This can be attributed to a slow and gradual rollback of stay-at-home orders nationwide. As of June 2020, 4.8 million jobs have been added to this industry. The trade, transportation, and utilities, as well as education and health services, manufacturing, and business services industries also saw improvements in employment. The impact to retail sales Clothing stores, furniture, and sporting goods stores were only a few of the many retailers that saw heavy declines following lockdown orders. After two consecutive months of decline, retail sales finally rebounded by 17.7% in May, with the largest gains occurring in clothing stores (+188%). In June, retail sales continued to rise substantially, resulting in saw a v-shaped bounce. However, with unemployment benefits nearing the expiration date and the number of pandemic cases continuing to increase, recovery remains tentative. Our State of the Economy report also covers manufacturing, homebuilders, consumer sentiments, and more. To see the rest of the data, download our report for July 2020. We’ll be sharing a new report every month, so keep an eye out! Download Now

Do consumers pay certain types of credit accounts before others during financial distress? For instance, do they prioritize paying mortgage bills over credit card bills or personal loans? During the Great Recession, the traditional notion of payment priority among multiple credit accounts was upended, throwing strategies employed by financial institutions into disarray. Similarly, current circumstances in the context of COVID-19 might cause sudden shifts in prioritization of payments which might have a dramatic impact on your credit portfolio. Financial institutions would be better able to forecast and control exposure to credit risk, and to optimize servicing practices such as forbearance and collections treatments if they could understand changing customer payment behaviors and priorities of their existing customers across all open trades. Unfortunately, financial institutions’ data—including their own behavioral data and refreshed credit bureau data–are limited to information about their own portfolio. Experian data provides insight which complements the financial institutions’ data expanding understanding of consumer payment behavior and priorities spanning all trades. Experian recently completed a study aimed at providing financial institutions valuable insights about their customer portfolios prior to COVID-19 and during the initial months of COVID-19. Using the Experian Ascend Technology Platform™, our data scientists evaluated a random 10% sample of U.S. consumers from its national credit file. Data from multiple vintages were pulled (June 2006, June 2008 and February 2018) and the payment trends were studied over the subsequent performance period. Experian tabulated the counts of consumers who had various combinations of open and active trade types and selected several trade type combinations with volume to differentiate performance by trade type. The selected combinations collectively span a variety of scenarios involving six trade types (Auto Loans, Bankcard, Student Loan, Unsecured Personal Loans, Retail Cards and First Mortgages). The trade combinations selected accommodate a variety of lenders offering different products. For each of the consumer groups identified, Experian calculated default rates associated with each trade type across several performance periods. For brevity, this blog will focus on customers identified as of February 2018 and their subsequent performance through February 2020. As the recession evolves and when the economy eventually recovers, we will continue to monitor the impacts of COVID-19 on consumer payment behavior and priorities and share updates to this analysis. Consumers with Bankcard, Mortgage, Auto and Retail accounts Among consumers having open and recently active Bankcard, Mortgage, Auto and Retail accounts, bankcard delinquency was highest throughout the 24-month performance window, followed by Retail. Delinquency rates for Auto and Mortgage were the lowest. During the pre-COVID-19 period, consumers paid their secured loans before their unsecured loans. As demonstrated in the table below, customer payment priority was stable across the entire 24-month period, with no significant shift in payment priorities between trade types. Consumers with Unsecured Personal Loan, Retail Card and Bankcard accounts. Among consumers having open and recently active Unsecured Personal Loan, Retail Card and Bankcard accounts, consumers are likely to pay unsecured personal loans first when in financial distress. Retail is the second priority, followed by Bankcard. KEY FINDINGS From February 2018 through April 2020, relative payment priority by trade type has been stable Auto and Mortgage trades, when present, show very high payment priority Download the full Payment Hierarchy Report here. Download Now Learn more about how Experian can create a custom payment hierarchy for the customers in your own portfolio, contact your Experian Account Executive, or visit our website.

Stay at home orders are beginning to lift across the country, and dealers are beginning to move forward. But, even as these orders lift, that doesn’t mean dealers can or should go back to the strategies they had laid out for the year, as so much has changed these last few months. As reopening occurs, it’s important to keep in mind that the situation is still fluid for many consumers, and marketing strategies need to reflect that. While creating dynamic strategies may sound like a large ask, data can help you create informed decisions that quickly adapt to a changing environment. Among the available data sets, one of the most telling right now is consumer sentiment, which can help you create a more human connection with consumers. Better understanding consumers’ situations enables you to create more effective strategies that show consumers you’re here to help them meet their most pressing needs. Experian’s research found that 23 percent of consumers are looking to purchase a vehicle in the next few months, as of July 1. Of those consumers, 59 percent plan to move forward with their purchases, and 34 percent plan to purchase something less expensive than planned. While these are informative metrics, the data becomes truly actionable when analyzed by generation and population size. Consumer sentiment across populations We looked at the same data across urban, suburban and rural areas, and found that urban residents show the highest propensity to be in-market for a vehicle in the next few months at 42 percent—which is even higher than the national average of 23 percent. In contrast, only 14 percent of consumers in suburban areas and 13 percent of consumers in rural areas are looking for a new vehicle in the next few months. If your dealership is in an urban area, now is a great time to identify your local in-market vehicle shoppers, typically located within three zip codes around your dealership, and identify their most pressing needs. Where is the consumer in their car-buying journey? Do they want to buy something in a few weeks, or a few months? Do they need to exchange a lease? Was there a vehicle incident? Once you identify where they are in their journey, your communication can help point them to the right option. When you take a closer look at the urban data, it also shows us that consumers are interested in exploring all their options. Of the 42 percent of urban consumers looking to purchase a vehicle in the coming months, 69 percent plan to continue with the purchase as planned, though 32 percent are planning to purchase something less expensive than originally planned, and 27 percent of these consumers are considering leasing, instead of purchasing. It’s important for you to understand this and meet consumers where they are by presenting a variety of options. This shows that you’re helping to meet their most pressing needs – and budget. if your dealership has more rural customers, a different tactic, such as focusing on bringing customers into the service drive, could be more effective. You could also use this time to analyze the vehicles are in your surrounding market to see which have open recalls or maintenance needs. This can help build a relationship that will encourage consumers to return to your dealership when they’re ready for a purchase. Generational differences Another way to focus on the data is by generation, where several interesting insights emerge. As of July 1: Only 8 percent of Baby Boomers are considering a vehicle purchase in the next few months Millennials (29 percent) and Gen X (35 percent) are the most interested in purchasing a vehicle in the next few months Of those looking to purchase a new vehicle, Gen Z (28 percent) is the most interested in leasing instead While these insights are informative on a national level, that data will only take you so far. Dealers need to drill down and focus on your local market and identify who’s around your dealership. When is the last time you did a profile of the area? It may be time for an update to better understand who your most likely consumers are and in what they are most interested. Understanding your local market, has always been key to success for dealerships. But now, you need to understand the attitudes of your potential customers in order to manage the current environment and to address consumers’ most pressing needs. Strategies that are informed by data, such as consumer sentiment, will ensure that you lead with empathy and build relationships that will thrive in the days to come.


