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Data has become one of the most powerful tools in the automotive industry. It’s opened the door to innovative design, predictive maintenance, improved operations and more accurate risk assessments. And now, as we navigate COVID-19, the industry is leaning on data more than ever to move ahead. It can start with deeper insight into what’s on the road. A keen understanding of market trends can inform operational strategy for the coming months—and if there’s ever been a time to be strategic, it’s now. Experian recently released its Q1 2020 Market Trends report, which provides insights about the vehicles on the road and the most popular vehicle segments. Entry-level crossover vehicles continue to gain significant market share When looking at the top 20 segments of vehicles in operation, you likely won’t be surprised to find full-size pickups are the most popular vehicle, with 15.9 percent market share. It’s followed by standard mid-range cars (10 percent), but that will likely change soon. Entry-level crossover vehicles (CUVs) reached 9.9 percent of market share in Q1 2020—coming close to eclipsing mid-range cars. CUVs such as the Toyota RAV4, Ford Escape, and Honda CRV have seen continuous growth since Q1 2009, and are unlikely to stop anytime soon. In fact, as Q1 2020, CUVs comprised just over 50 percent of new vehicle registrations, more than any other vehicle segment. While the first inclination would be to think about this in terms of inventory impact, there are clear marketing implications. While full-size pickups remain the vehicle of choice for many car shoppers, increases in other vehicle types reinforce the need to understand your local market—particularly during this time. In-market car shoppers have different needs—extra legroom, fuel efficiency, more seats, etc. Gone are the days of the one-size-fits-all campaigns. Understand the preferences of your local market and adjust messaging accordingly—just because full-size pickups are the most popular nationwide, doesn’t mean other areas are not in-market for a different vehicle. Aftermarket “sweet spot” is growing Vehicles that are 6 – 12 years old fall into what’s known as the aftermarket “sweet spot,” meaning that they’ve aged out of general manufacturer warranties, and will require consumers to pay closer attention to maintenance and potentially replace critical components—an opportunity for many aftermarket companies and dealers. As of Q1 2020, 31.5 percent of vehicles in operation fell into that “sweet spot.” As the industry continues to think about consumers’ most pressing needs—what about consumers who aren’t in market to purchase but do have a vehicle in the “sweet spot”? Do they understand what service their vehicle may need, and why it’s important? This can be a good time to educate consumers on why routine upkeep is vital to keeping their vehicles on the road. This will build rapport with customers that will keep your brand top of mind for service needs, but also the next time they’re in market for a vehicle. At the end of the day, data is at its most powerful when it enables us to make actionable decisions, whether they’re about marketing, inventory, or reopening in the current environment. The automotive industry will continue to remain resilient if we focus on the data available to us to make the right decisions as we move the industry forward, together. To view the full Q1 2020 Market Trends presentation, click here

Everyone in the automotive industry has considered the same questions: What is the sales impact of COVID-19, and how will it influence the future of our industry? While the long-term impacts remain largely unknown, origination data from April and May provide some insight into the more immediate effects of the pandemic. Both April and May saw vehicle registrations decrease year-over-year—however, it’s important to note, we saw slight improvement during the month of May. In April, new vehicle registrations dropped 50.8 percent, while used vehicles dropped 54 percent. We still saw declines in May, though the drops were significantly smaller–new vehicles were down 33.3 percent and used vehicles were down 32.4 percent. Captives see jump in market share One of the biggest changes since the start of COVID-19 is a shift in lender market share; specifically, captive lenders saw a dramatic increase in market share over the last three months. At the beginning of March, captive lenders comprised 52.7 percent of the auto finance market. That jumped to 55.7 percent in April, and as of May 1, reached 62.1 percent of the market. Much of the increase in April and May was driven both by numerous incentives offered to encourage consumers to purchase vehicles and historically low interest rates. Consumers choosing loans over leases Another emerging trend from the last two months is more consumers choosing loans over leases. In April of 2019, 30 percent of all new vehicles were leased, while in April of 2020 that dropped to 24 percent. May showed a similar pattern: 30.1 percent of new vehicles were leased in May of 2019, but only 23.3 percent in May of 2020. The decrease in leasing could be attributed to dealer closures or consumer inability to transact. While this may not have an immediate industry impact, it may down the road. For the past few years, leasing has hovered around 30 percent of new vehicle sales. This has helped to drive used vehicle sales since late-model off-lease vehicles have become increasingly popular with prime consumers. In fact, in Q1 2020, prime consumers made up more than 50 percent of used vehicle loans. We may not know the long-term effects of the pandemic but staying close to the latest data will help lenders and dealers make informed decisions as they navigate the current landscape. Ultimately, this is a time in which lenders and dealers can build relationships with consumers by meeting their most pressing needs, which not only builds loyalty – it keeps the industry moving forward.

Experian’s Chris Ryan and Bobbie Paul recently re-joined David Mattei from Aite to discuss how emerging fraud trends and changes in consumer behavior will have long-term impacts on businesses. Chris, Bobbie, and David have combined experience of more than 60 years in the world of fraud prevention. In this discussion, they bring that experience to bear as they review how businesses should revise their long-term fraud strategy in response to COVID-19 and the subsequent economic shifts, including: The requirements to authenticate a digital customer Businesses’ technology challenges Differentiating between first party and third party fraud The importance of businesses’ technology investment How to build a roadmap for the next 90 days and beyond Experian · Make Your Fraud Plan Recession-Ready: Your 90 Day and Beyond Plan


