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This article was updated on February 28, 2024. There's always a risk that a borrower will miss or completely stop making payments. And when lending is your business, quantifying that credit risk is imperative. However, your credit risk analysts need the right tools and resources to perform at the highest level — which is why understanding the latest developments in credit risk analytics and finding the right partner are important. What is credit risk analytics? Credit risk analytics help turn historical and forecast data into actionable analytical insights, enabling financial institutions to assess risk and make lending and account management decisions. One way organizations do this is by incorporating credit risk modeling into their decisions. Credit risk modeling Financial institutions can use credit risk modeling tools in different ways. They might use one credit risk model, also called a scorecard, to assess credit risk (the likelihood that you won't be repaid) at the time of application. Its output helps you determine whether to approve or deny an application and set the terms of approved accounts. Later in the customer lifecycle, a behavior scorecard might help you understand the risk in your portfolio, adjust credit lines and identify up- or cross-selling opportunities. Risk modeling can also go beyond individual account management to help drive high-level portfolio and strategic decisions. However, managing risk models is an ongoing task. As market conditions and business goals change, monitoring, testing and recalibrating your models is important for accurately assessing credit risk. Credit scoring models Application credit scoring models are one of the most popular applications for credit risk modeling. Designed to predict the probability of default (PD) when making lending decisions, conventional credit risk scoring models focus on the likelihood that a borrower will become 90 days past due (DPD) on a credit obligation in the following 24 months. These risk scores are traditionally logistic regression models built on historical credit bureau data. They often have a 300 to 850 scoring range, and they rank-order consumers so people with higher scores are less likely to go 90 DPD than those with lower scores. However, credit risk models can have different score ranges and be developed to predict different outcomes over varying horizons, such as 60 DPD in the next 12 months. In addition to the conventional credit risk scores, organizations can use in-house and custom credit risk models that incorporate additional data points to better predict PD for their target market. However, they need to have the resources to manage the entire development and deployment or find an experienced partner who can help. The latest trends in credit risk scoring Organizations have used statistical and mathematical tools to measure risk and predict outcomes for decades. But the future of credit underwriting is playing out as big data meets advanced data analytics and increased computing power. Some of the recent trends that we see are: Machine learning credit risk models: Machine learning (ML) is a type of artificial intelligence (AI) that's proven to be especially helpful in evaluating credit risk. ML models can outperform traditional models by 10 to 15 percent.1 Experian survey data from September 2021 found that about 80 percent of businesses are confident in AI and cloud-based credit risk decisioning, and 70 percent frequently discuss using advanced analytics and AI for determining credit risk and collection efforts.2 Expanding data sources: The ML models' performance lift is due, in part, to their ability to incorporate internal and alternative credit data* (or expanded FCRA-regulated data), such as credit data from alternative financial services, rental payments and Buy Now Pay Later loans. Cognitively countering bias: Lenders have a regulatory and moral imperative to remove biases from their lending decisions. They need to beware of how biased training data could influence their credit risk models (ML or otherwise) and monitor the outcomes for unintentionally discriminatory results. This is also why lenders need to be certain that their ML-driven models are fully explainable — there are no black boxes. A focus on agility: The pandemic highlighted the need to have credit risk models and systems that you can quickly adjust to account for unexpected world events and changes in consumer behavior. Real-time analytical insights can increase accuracy during these transitory periods. Financial institutions that can efficiently incorporate the latest developments in credit risk analytics have a lot to gain. For instance, a digital-first lending platform coupled with ML models allows lenders to increasingly automate loan underwriting, which can help them manage rising loan volumes, improve customer satisfaction and free up resources for other growth opportunities. READ: The getting AI-driven decisioning right in financial services white paper to learn more about the current AI decisioning landscape. Why does getting credit risk right matter? Getting credit risk right is at the heart of what lenders do and accurately predicting the likelihood that a borrower won't repay a loan is the starting point. From there, you can look for ways to more accurately score a wider population of consumers, and focus on how to automate and efficiently scale your system. Credit risk analysis also goes beyond simply using the output from a scoring model. Organizations must make lending decisions within the constraints of their internal resources, goals and policies, as well as the external regulatory requirements and market conditions. Analytics and modeling are essential tools, but as credit analysts will tell you, there's also an art to the practice. CASE STUDY: Atlas Credit, a small-dollar lender, worked with Experian's analytics experts to create a custom explainable ML-powered model using various data sources. After reworking the prequalification and credit decisioning processes and optimizing their score cutoffs and business rules, the company can now make instant decisions. It also doubled its approval rate while reducing risk by 15 to 20 percent. How Experian helps clients With decades of experience in credit risk analytics and data management, Experian offers a variety of products and services for financial services firms. Ascend Intelligence Services™ is an award-winning, end-to-end suite of analytics solutions. At a high level, the offering set can rapidly develop new credit risk models, seamlessly deploy them into production and optimize decisioning strategies. It also has the capability to continuously monitor and retrain models to improve performance over time. For organizations that have the experience and resources to develop new credit risk models on their own, Experian can give you access to data and expertise to help guide and improve the process. But there are also off-the-shelf options for organizations that want to quickly benefit from the latest developments in credit risk modeling. Learn more 1Experian (2020). Machine Learning Decisions in Milliseconds 2Experian (2021). Global Insights Report September/October 2021

During the last couple of years, volatile market conditions have made it more difficult for consumers to improve their finances. In addition, a lack of financial literacy has negatively impacted consumers’ ability to expand their buying power. This can include opening new lines of credit, which is a source of revenue for financial institutions. Empowering your consumers with credit education and resources can create opportunities for them to open more of these new accounts, which can help lead to additional revenue for your business. Credit card account openings decreased in 2023 Economic turbulence is affecting businesses everywhere, including financial institutions. Uncertain market conditions have forced banks and credit unions to take revenue-preserving actions, such as tightening their credit card loan standards for consumers. As a result, credit card digital account opening growth slowed in 2023, and the trend threatens to continue.[1] This decrease in the opening of new credit card accounts can negatively affect lenders that aim to grow their business by encouraging consumers to borrow more money. Consumers’ financial literacy also plays a role in their ability and inclination to open new accounts. Uninformed consumers may be less likely to open new accounts Without a strong understanding of finances, many consumers find themselves in an unfavorable financial situation. Less than 30% of Americans have a financial plan,[2] and lacking financial knowledge cost individuals $1,819 on average in 2022.[3] Consumers without basic knowledge of finance or credit best practices usually have lower credit scores and may be less likely to qualify for credit card offers with low interest rates. So, what can financial institutions do to counteract decreasing credit card account openings? Help improve consumers credit standing with credit education Credit education programs can have a positive effect on consumers’ credit standing and general understanding of healthy financial habits. More than 65% of consumers enrolled in a credit education program see an improvement on their credit scores.[4] Credit-educated individuals can typically attain higher credit scores, which can help improve their chances of meeting the more restrictive credit standards banks have put in place due to volatile market conditions. Consumers who are better informed about credit and finances make better financial decisions, save, and borrow more money, and may be more likely to open new credit card accounts. This presents a valuable opportunity for financial institutions to offer highly desired credit education services to the consumers who need it. Deliver services your customers want A recent study showed that 57% of consumers want their financial institution to provide resources and support to help them better manage their finances, and 54% feel that their bank is responsible for teaching strong financial habits.[5] Consumers expect these financial services from the banks they do business with. Refraining from offering them could put your business at a disadvantage when compared to the banks that do. Make sure the services you provide include credit education that empowers your consumers to become more financially confident. This can help drive consumers to borrow more money and potentially open more new credit lines, which can drive additional revenue for your business. Learn more about how offering credit education services can help your consumers save more, borrow more, and open more new accounts.  Visit our website [1] eMarketer, Credit Card Marketing 2023. [2] BusinessDIT, The State of Financial Planning, April 2023. [3] National Financial Educators Council, Cost of Financial Illiteracy Survey, 2023. [4] Experian Internal Data, 2023 credit lift study for users tracked from Dec 2020 – Dec 2022. [5] MX Technologies Inc. What Influences Where Consumers Choose to Bank. 2023.

This article was updated on February 23, 2024. First impressions are always important – whether it’s for a job interview, a first date or when pitching a client. The same goes for financial services onboarding as it’s an opportunity for organizations to foster lifetime loyalty with customers. As a result, financial institutions are on the hunt now more than ever for frictionless online identity verification methods to validate genuine customers and maintain positive experiences during the online onboarding process. In a predominantly digital-first world, financial companies are increasingly focused on the customer experience and creating the most seamless online onboarding process. However, according to Experian’s 2023 Identity and Fraud Report, more than half of U.S. consumers considered dropping out during account opening due to friction and a less-than positive experience. And as technology continues to advance, digital financial services onboarding, not surprisingly, increases the demand for fraud protection and authentication methods – namely with digital identity (ID) verification processes. According to Experian’s report, 64% of consumers are very or somewhat concerned with online security, with identity theft being their top concern. So how can financial institutions guarantee a frictionless online onboarding experience while executing proper authentication methods and maintaining security and fraud detection? The answer? While a “frictionless” experience can seem like a bit of a unicorn, there are some ways to get close: Utilizing better data – Digital devices offer an extensive amount of data that’s useful in determining risk. Characteristics that allow the identification of a specific device, the behaviors associated with the device and information about a device’s owner can be captured without adding friction for the user. Analytics – Once the data is collected, advanced analytics uses information based on behavioral data, digital intelligence, phone intelligence and email intelligence to analyze for risk. While there’s friction in the initial ask for the input data, the risk prediction improves with more data. Document verification and biometric identity verification – Real-time document verification used in conjunction with facial biometrics, behavioral biometrics and other physical characteristics allows for rapid onboarding and helps to maintain a low friction customer journey. Financial institutions can utilize document verification to replace manual long-form applications for rapid onboarding and immediately verify new data at the point of entry. Using their mobile phones, consumers can photograph and upload identity documents to pre-fill applications. Document authenticity can be verified in real-time. Biometrics, including facial, behavioral, or other physical characteristics (like fingerprints), are low-touch methods of customer authentication that can be used synchronously with document verification. Optimize your financial services onboarding process Experian understands how critical identity management and fraud protection is when it comes to the online onboarding process and identity verification. That’s why we created layered digital identity verification and risk segmentation solutions to help legitimize your customers with confidence while improving the customer experience. Our identity verification solutions use advanced technology and capabilities to correctly identify and verify real customers while mitigating fraud and maintaining frictionless customer experiences. Learn more