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Join us Sept 12-13 in New York City for the Finovate conference to check out the best new innovations in financial and banking technology from a mixture of leading established companies and startups. As part of Finovate's signature demo-only format for this event, Steve Wagner, President, Consumer Information Services and Michele Pearson, Vice President of Marketing, Consumer Information Services, from Experian will demonstrate how providers and lead generators can access a powerful new marketing tool to: Drive new traffic Lower online customer acquisition costs Generate high-quality, credit-qualified leads Proactively utilize individual consumer credit data online in real time Networking sessions will follow company demos each day, giving attendees the chance to speak directly with the Experian innovators they saw on stage. Finovate 2011 had more than 1,000 financial institution executives, venture capitalists, members of the press and entrepreneurs in attendance, and they expecting an even larger audience at the 2012 event. We look forward to seeing you at Finovate!

In this three-part series, Everything you wanted to know about credit risk scores, but were afraid to ask, I will provide a high level overview of: What a credit risk score predicts; Common myths about credit risk scores and how to educate consumers; and finally, Scoring traditionally unscoreable consumers Part I: So what exactly does a credit risk score predict? A credit risk score predicts the probability that a consumer will become 90 days past due or greater on any given account over the next 24 months. A three digit risk score relates to probability; or in some circles, probability of default. An example of the probability of default: For a consumer who has a VantageScore® credit score of 900, there is a 0.21% chance they will have a 90 day or greater past due occurrence in the next 24 months or odds of 2 out of 1,000 consumers A consumer with a VantageScore® credit score of 560 will have a 35% chance they will have a 90 day or greater past due occurrence in the next 24 months or odds of 350 out of 1,000 consumers This concept comes to life in light of changes being made on the regulatory front from the FDIC in the new proposed large bank pricing rule, which will change the way large lenders define and calculate risk for their FDIC Deposit Insurance Assessment. One of the key changes is that the traditional three-digit credit score used to set its risk threshold will be replaced with “probability of default” (PD) metric. Based on the proposed rule, the new definition for a higher risk loan is one that has a 20% or higher probability of defaulting in two years. The new rule has a number of wide-ranging implications. It will impact a lender’s FDIC assessment and will allow them to uniformly and easily assess risk regardless of their use of proprietary or generic credit risk scoring modes. In part 2, I will dispel some common consumer myths about credit scores and how lenders can provide credit education to their customers.

By: Mike Horrocks In 1950 Alice Stewart, a British medical professor, embarked on a study to identify what was causing so many cases of cancer in children. Her broad study covered many aspects of the lives of both child and mother, and the final result was that a large spike in the number of children struck with cancer came from mothers that were x-rayed during pregnancy. The data was clear and statistically beyond reproach and yet for nearly 25 more years, the practice of using x-rays during pregnancy continued. Why didn't doctors stop using x-rays? They clearly thought the benefits outweighed the risk and they also had a hard time accepting Dr. Stewart’s study. So how, did Dr. Stewart gain more acceptance of the study – she had a colleague, George Kneale, whose sole job was to disprove her study. Only by challenging her theories, could she gain the confidence to prove them right. I believe that theory of challenging the outcome carries over to the practice of risk management as well, as we look to avoid or exploit the next risk around the corner. So how can we as risk managers find the next trends in risk management? I don’t pretend to have all the answers, but here are some great ideas. Analyze your analysis. Are you drawing conclusions off of what would be obvious data sources or a rather simplified hypothesis? If you are, you can bet your competitors are too. Look for data, tools and trends that can enrich your analysis. In a recent discussion with a lending institution that has a relationship with a logistics firm, they said that the insights they get from the logistical experts has been spot-on in terms of regional business indicators and lending risks. Stop thinking about the next 90 days and start thinking about the next 9 quarters. Don’t get me wrong, the next 90 days are vital, but what is coming in the next 2+ years is critical. Expand the discussion around risk with a holistic risk team. Seek out people with different backgrounds, different ways of thinking and different experiences as a part of your risk management team. The broader the coverage of disciplines the more likely opportunities will be uncovered. Taking these steps may introduce some interesting discussions, even to the point of conflict in some meetings. However, when we look back at Dr. Stewart and Mr. Kneale, their conflicts brought great results and allowed for some of the best thinking at the time. So go ahead, open yourself and your organization to a little conflict and let’s discover the best thinking in risk management.


