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By: Mike Horrocks In 1950 Alice Stewart, a British medical professor, embarked on a study to identify what was causing so many cases of cancer in children. Her broad study covered many aspects of the lives of both child and mother, and the final result was that a large spike in the number of children struck with cancer came from mothers that were x-rayed during pregnancy. The data was clear and statistically beyond reproach and yet for nearly 25 more years, the practice of using x-rays during pregnancy continued. Why didn't doctors stop using x-rays? They clearly thought the benefits outweighed the risk and they also had a hard time accepting Dr. Stewart’s study. So how, did Dr. Stewart gain more acceptance of the study – she had a colleague, George Kneale, whose sole job was to disprove her study. Only by challenging her theories, could she gain the confidence to prove them right. I believe that theory of challenging the outcome carries over to the practice of risk management as well, as we look to avoid or exploit the next risk around the corner. So how can we as risk managers find the next trends in risk management? I don’t pretend to have all the answers, but here are some great ideas. Analyze your analysis. Are you drawing conclusions off of what would be obvious data sources or a rather simplified hypothesis? If you are, you can bet your competitors are too. Look for data, tools and trends that can enrich your analysis. In a recent discussion with a lending institution that has a relationship with a logistics firm, they said that the insights they get from the logistical experts has been spot-on in terms of regional business indicators and lending risks. Stop thinking about the next 90 days and start thinking about the next 9 quarters. Don’t get me wrong, the next 90 days are vital, but what is coming in the next 2+ years is critical. Expand the discussion around risk with a holistic risk team. Seek out people with different backgrounds, different ways of thinking and different experiences as a part of your risk management team. The broader the coverage of disciplines the more likely opportunities will be uncovered. Taking these steps may introduce some interesting discussions, even to the point of conflict in some meetings. However, when we look back at Dr. Stewart and Mr. Kneale, their conflicts brought great results and allowed for some of the best thinking at the time. So go ahead, open yourself and your organization to a little conflict and let’s discover the best thinking in risk management.

The Experian/Moody's Analytics Small Business Credit Index edged up 0.9 points in Q2 2012, to 104.1 from 103.2. High-level findings from the Q2 report show that credit quality will be slow to improve in coming months, and threats to consumer confidence and spending have become more prominent. Business confidence is in line with an economy growing below potential. This factor could affect hiring through the rest of the year, postponing the emergence of a strong, consumer-led recovery. Download the entire report on Small Business Credit. Source: Experian press release—Aug 7, 2012: Small-business credit conditions slightly improve as economy shows signs of stalling

By: Teri Tassara The intense focus and competition among lenders for the super prime and prime prospect population has become saturated, requiring lenders to look outside of their safety net for profitable growth. This leads to the question “Where are the growth opportunities in a post-recession world?” Interestingly, the most active and positive movement in consumer credit is in what we are terming “emerging prime” consumers, represented by a VantageScore® of 701-800, or letter grade “C”. We’ve seen that of those consumers classified as VantageScore C in 3Q 2006, 32% had migrated to a VantageScore B and another 4% to an A grade over a 5-year window of time. And as more of the emerging prime consumers rebuild credit and recover from the economic downturn, demand for credit is increasing once again. Case in point, the auto lending industry to the “subprime” population is expected to increase the most, fueled by consumer demand. Lenders striving for market advantage are looking to find the next sweet spot, and ahead of the competition. Fortunately, lenders can apply sophisticated and advanced analytical methods to confidently segment the emerging prime consumers into the appropriate risk classification and predict their responsiveness for a variety of consumer loans. Here are some recommended steps to identifying consumers most likely to add significant value to a lender’s portfolio: Identify emerging prime consumers Understand how prospects are using credit Apply the most predictive credit attributes and scores for risk assessment Understand responsiveness level The stops and starts that have shaped this recovery have contributed to years of slow growth and increased competition for the same “super prime” consumers. However, these post-recession market conditions are gradually paving the way to opportunistic profitable growth. With advanced science, lenders can pair caution with a profitable growth strategy, applying greater rigor and discipline in their decision-making.


