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What happens when once desirable models begin to show their age? Not the willowy, glamorous types that prowl high-fashion catwalks. But rather the aging scoring models you use to predict risk and rank-order various consumer segments. Keeping a fresh face on these models can return big dividends, in the form of lower risk, accurate scoring and higher quality customers. In this post, we provide an overview of custom attributes and present the benefits of overlaying current scoring models with them. We also suggest specific steps communications companies can take to improve the results of an aging or underperforming model. The beauty of custom attributes Attributes are highly predictive variables derived from raw data. Custom attributes, like those you’ve created in house or obtained from third parties, can provide deeper insights into specific behaviors, characteristics and trends. Overlaying your scoring model with custom attributes can further optimize its performance and improve lift. Often, the older the model, the greater the potential for improvement. Seal it with a KS Identifying and integrating the most predictive attributes can add power to your overlay, including the ability to accurately rank-order consumers. Overlaying also increases the separation of “goods and bads” (referred to as “KS”) for a model within a particular industry or sub-segment. Not surprisingly, the most predictive attributes vary greatly between industries and sub-segments, mainly due to behavioral differences among their populations. Getting started The first step in improving an underperforming model is choosing a data partner—one with proven expertise with multivariate statistical methods and models for the communications industry. Next, you’ll compile an unbiased sample of consumers, a reject inference sample and a list of attributes derived from sources you deem most appropriate. Attributes are usually narrowed to 10 or fewer from the larger list, based on predictiveness Predefined, custom or do-it-yourself Your list could include attributes your company has developed over time, or those obtained from other sources, such as Experian Premier AttributesSM (more than 800 predefined consumer-related choices) or Trend ViewSM attributes. Relationship, income/capacity, loan-to-value and other external data may also be overlaid. Attribute ToolboxTM Should you choose to design and create your own list of custom attributes, Experian’s Attribute ToolboxTM offers a platform for development and deployment of attributes from multiple sources (customer data or third-party data identified by you). Testing a rejuvenated model The revised model is tested on your both your unbiased and reject inference samples to confirm and evaluate any additional lift induced by newly overlaid attributes. After completing your analysis and due diligence, attributes are installed into production. Initial testing, in a live environment, can be performed for three to twelve months, depending on the segment (prescreen, collections, fraud, non-pay, etc), outcome or behavior your model seeks to predict. This measured, deliberate approach is considered more conservative, compared with turning new attributes on right away. Depending on the model’s purpose, improvements can be immediate or more tempered. However, the end result of overlaying attributes is usually better accuracy and performance. Make your model super again If your scoring model is starting to show its age, consider overlaying it with high-quality predefined or custom attributes. Because in communications, risk prevention is always in vogue. To learn more about improving your model, contact your Experian representative. To read other recent posts related to scoring, click here.

The following article was originally posted on August 15, 2011 by Mike Myers on the Experian Business Credit Blog. Last time we talked about how credit policies are like a plant grown from a seed. They need regular review and attention just like the plants in your garden to really bloom. A credit policy is simply a consistent guideline to follow when decisioning accounts, reviewing accounts, collecting and setting terms. Opening accounts is just the first step. Here are a couple of key items to consider in reviewing accounts: How many of your approved accounts are paying you late? What is their average days beyond terms? How much credit have they been extended? What attributes of these late paying accounts can predict future payment behavior? I recently worked with a client to create an automated credit policy that consistently reviews accounts based on predictive credit attributes, public records and exception rules using the batch account review decisioning tools within BusinessIQ. The credit team now feels like they are proactively managing their accounts instead of just reacting to them. A solid credit policy not only focuses on opening accounts, but also on regular account review which can help you reduce your overall risk.

By: Staci Baker In my last post about the Dodd-Frank Act, I described the new regulatory bodies created by the Act. In this post, I will concentrate on how the Act will affect community banks. The Dodd-Frank Act is over 3,000 pages of proposed and final rules and regulations set forth by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). For any bank, managing such a massive amount of regulations is a challenge, but for a median-size bank with fewer employees, it can be overwhelming. The Act has far reaching unintended consequences for community banks. According to the American Bankers Association, there are five provisions that are particularly troubling for community banks: 1. Risk retention 2. Higher Capital Requirements and Narrower Qualifications for Capital 3. SEC’s Municipal Advisors Rule 4. Derivatives Rules 5. Doubling Size of the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) In order meet new regulatory requirements, community banks will need to hire additional compliance staff to review the new rules and regulations, as well as to ensure they are implemented on schedule. This means the additional cost of outside lawyers, which will affect resources available to the bank for staff, and for its customers and the community. Community banks will also feel the burden of loosing interchange fee income. Small banks are exempt from the new rules; however, the market will follow the lowest priced product. Which will mean another loss of revenue for the banks. As you can see, community banks will greatly be affected by the Dodd-Frank Act. The increased regulations will mean a loss of revenues, increased oversight, additional out-side staffing (less resources) and reporting requirements. If you are a community bank, how do you plan on overcoming some of these obstacles?


