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By: Kari Michel Lending institutions are more challenged today than ever before when assessing credit risk to find creditworthy consumers. Since 2006, the start of the housing bust and recession, consumer’s overall creditworthiness has deteriorated, especially those consumers who once had a high score (low risk). “For example, a study earlier this year by VantageScore® Solutions LLC found that the probability of serious delinquency, defined as nonpayment for 90 days or more, had increased by 417 percent among “super prime” borrowers between June 2007 and June 2009. Default risk during the same period rose by 406 percent for the second-highest rated category of “prime” consumers, and nearly doubled for those at the “near prime” scoring level.”* The VantageScore® credit score model is one example of a credit risk model that was recently redeveloped to capture the changing consumer behavior of repayment. The development data set included 45 million consumer credit profiles for the time period of 2006 to 2009. The VantageScore® credit score will be released for lenders use January 2011. *Source: The Washington Post, “Walk-aways leading to big changes for all borrower’s credit score, November 5, 2010 Link for article: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/05/AR2010110502133.html

By: Kristan Frend According to the 2011 Identity Theft Assistance Center Outlook (ITAC), new forms of small business identity theft are emerging. This shouldn’t be a surprise that criminals view small business accounts as a lucrative funding source. What is surprising is that the ‘new’ form of small business identity theft consists of the U.S. Postal Inspection Service reporting a surge in criminal rings using small business information from stolen mail, check writing software and other tactics to counterfeit checks. That’s the new wave of small business identity theft??? I consider this one of the least sophisticated types of fraud that can easily be eliminated by small business owners not leaving mail unattended. Reading this report makes me realize that we have a long way to go in identifying and reporting the more sophisticated types of small business fraud. As I’ve mentioned before, the industry has come a long way in advancing consumer fraud solutions. Yet, as fraud has migrated into business accounts, we as an industry still have a ways to go in reporting the latest business fraud trends and tracking statistics. I’m adding this to my wish list for 2011… What’s on your wish list? On a side note, I’ve noticed nearly all of the articles posted in our blog include no reader comments. I’d like to think that this means our readers are too busy to add comments and/or our articles are so well-written that they answer all of your questions. One can dream right? Seriously though, as we approach 2011 and plan our topics, we’d love to hear from you- if you can think of any topic you’d like us to cover more in depth, please let us know.

By: Kristan Frend As my colleague Margarita Lim discussed in her December 3rd article, the SSA announced that it will change how social security numbers (SSNs) will be issued, with a move toward a random method of assigning SSNs. For organizations that currently incorporate the validation of an applicant’s SSN issue date and state as a part of their risk-based decisioning, they will lose this piece of applicant authentication post-randomization. But there is some good news – first, this validation piece won’t be entirely terminated on day one of the SSN randomization for organizations. All the change means is that the newly issued SSNs will be randomized. In other words, the only SSNs that the issue data and state won’t be validated on day one are the SSNs that have just been issued to the recently born or immigrants. Given that its likely newborns won’t be applying for credit for another 18 years, the bulk of the newly issued SSNs that organizations will see for a while are those belonging to adults who were recently issued a SSN…A growing number of applicants, but not the majority of applicants. The other bit of good news is this may actually be a good thing for all of us in the long run. While we’ll end up losing the ability to validate an applicant’s SSN issue data and state, the criminals will be at an even greater disadvantage. Consider this- Last year researchers* were able to “identify all nine digits for 8.5 percent of people born after 1988 in fewer than 1,000 attempts. For people born recently in smaller states, researchers sometimes needed just 10 or fewer attempts to predict all nine digits.” I don’t expect this change to drastically reduce third party fraud rates but over time it should eliminate one component of identity theft and ultimately benefit an organization’s Customer Information Program. *The National Science Foundation, the U.S. Army Research Office, Carnegie Melon Cylab, and the Berkman Faculty Development Fund provided support for the research. To view the entire study, please visit http://www.pnas.org/content/106/27/10975.full.pdf+html.


