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2007 and 2008 saw a rapid change of consumer behaviors and it is no surprise to most collections professionals that the existing collections scoring models and strategies are not working as well as they used to. These tools and collections workflow practices were mostly built from historical behavioral and credit data and assume that consumers will continue to behave as they had in the past. We all know that this is not the case, with an example being prioritization of debt and repayment patterns. Its been assumed and validated for decades that consumers will let their credit card lines go before an auto loan and that the mortgage obligations would be the last trade to remain standing before bankruptcy. Today, that is certainly not the case and there are other significant behavior shifts that are contributing to today's weak business models. There are at least three compelling reasons to believe now is the right time for updates: It appears that most of the consumer behavioral shift is over for collections. While economic recovery will take many years, more radical changes in the economy are unlikely. Most experts are calling for a housing bottom sometime in 2009 and there are already signs of hope on Wall Street. What is built now shouldn't be obsolete next year. A slow economic recovery probably means that the life of new models will be fairly long and most consumers won't be able to improve their credit and collections scores anytime soon. Even after financial recovery (which at this point is not likely over the short term for many that are already in trouble), it can take two to seven years of responsible payment history before a risk assessment is improved. We now have the data with which to make the updates. It takes six to12 months of stability to accumulate sufficient data for proper analysis and so far 2009 hasn't seen much behavioral volatility. Whether you build or buy, the process takes awhile, so if you still need a few more months of history in will be in hand when needed if the projects are kicked off soon.

Due to the recent economic events, increased collections workloads are straining client infrastructures and resources. Most clients in North America operate their delinquent accounts on legacy collections systems that are inflexible and expensive to manage and maintain. A recent and abrupt spending shift has drifted toward collections tools, data, operational, efficient workflow and decisioning systems.On the information technology front, the collections workflow software industry is on the brink of a technology shift from legacy systems to modern next generation offerings that are typically coded in Java. Very few collections software vendors have actually released and implemented their next generation products and are preparing to do so over the next six to 12 months. Clients are aware of this technology shift and the interest of many end users has been heightened and many are actively researching and shopping.Reducing operational costs is an urgent priority for most financial institutions and utilities. Legacy systems do not allow management to change strategies or flows quickly or in a cost effective manner, which leaves most collections departments unable to keep up with rapidly changing environments and business objectives. Clients also have critical business needs to reduce losses, improve cash flow and promote customer satisfaction. Many clients maintain multiple systems and it is common that these disparate systems do not communicate with each other. Consolidating collections operations and databases into one central system is strongly desired and presents an opportunity for significant financial gain.

Our current collections management landscape is seeing unprecedented consumer debt burdens: Total consumer debt o/s is at $14 trillion as of Jan ’09 Revolving debt o/s has reached $1 trillion The unemployment rate is at 7.6% and is expected to continue to rise Credit card and Home Equity Line Of Credit issuers reduced available credit by approximately $2 Trillion last year and more reductions are expected in 2009 There is a continuing rise in delinquencies and chargeoffs. Here are some examples from our recent research: 8.5% of Prime Adjustable Rate Mortgages are now delinquent which shows an increase of 491% over this time last year 25% of all sub prime mortgages are now 60+ days delinquent Delinquencies for prime bankcard customers have increased 286% over the last 2 years 34% of all scoreable consumers (those who have sufficient trade information to calculate a score) now have a collection account. Compound these by a decline in the relative collectability of these accounts and you see: 9 million households now have negative equity 20% of 401(k) accounts have been tapped for loans (usually at a cost of 45% in penalties and fees to the account holder) According to the Federal Reserve, in late 2006 – at the height of the sub prime mortgage boom – the U.S. experienced a negative savings rate for the first time since the Great Depression.


