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This post is a feature from my colleague and guest blogger, Barry Timm, Senior Process Architect in Advisory Services at Baker Hill, a part of Experian. 2008 has proven to be an unbelievably challenging year for the economy as a whole, let alone the financial industry. Never before have we experienced the type and degree of turmoil that we did in 2008, even since the “Great Depression”. These economic challenges have been quick, severe and widespread; and, from large corporations to the individual consumer, all have been impacted to some degree. The stock market is down, unemployment up, consumer confidence down, delinquencies up ….not exactly a pleasant roller coaster ride. And, there is no longer any projecting as to when the “bubble” is going to burst. It happened. Decreased real estate values have occurred not only in high impact geographic regions but throughout the country. While home equity products have traditionally been the “golden child” of consumer loan product offerings, recent economic changes have caused a shift in that perspective. As a result, tightened underwriting standards have limited the availability of the product as a whole. In some markets the product offering has even been temporarily halted. We frequently hear the terminology “bailout” being used in the news. While we all have expectations as it relates to the bailout approach, I thought I would “Google” the word “bailout” to see what would magically appear. Interestingly enough, the first listing was titled “Walk away from your home”, with a link to the home page for a mortgage default legal team. This is not exactly what I was expecting to find, but is definitely reflective of the times. And, according to the FDIC, there have been 25 failed financial instituions in the year 2008. This single year number equates to the total number of failed financial institutions between the prior periods 2001 through 2007. Okay … enough doom and gloom. In spite of all that has occurred within the economy, some financial institutions continue to maintain a strong credit quality position in their consumer portfolios and have maintained profitability throughout all of the market volatility. What are the strong survivors doing that differentiates themselves from the others? 1. They understand their portfolio. Advisory Services frequently assists clients with various types of portfolio management analysis and often presents those findings to senior management. We often hear that management is surprised by the results of that analysis. The point is that high-level management reporting is not enough these days. Additional detail and depth are necessary. More specifically, as opposed to evaluating payment performance at the portfolio level, it is important to consider the following: Do you know your delinquency numbers at the product level? How do delinquencies compare to your product approval rates? Do you routinely compare approval/decline rates and delinquencies to scorecard results and/or credit bureau scores? Do you know where pricing exceptions are being made and are you receiving sufficient return for the level of risk? 2. A focused strategy is in place. It is important to re-emphasize the specific, strategic direction and focus of your defined market. Now is not the time to be “pushing the envelope” and extending into untested waters. There is something to be said about focusing on your strengths, staying within your defined footprint and meeting the needs of your core, proven line of business while following sound financial risk management. 3. The underwriting process is under control. This does not automatically mean that a “tightening” of underwriting standards is necessary. It does mean, however, that stronger attention to detail is warranted. It is important that underwriting criteria is reviewed and that you are sure that defined underwriting practices are consistently applied. As noted in item number one above, this may require digging a little deeper and reviewing current and past decisioned loans (preferably with a critical eye of an independent third party). Assessing the underwriting process becomes increasing complex and more critical with a decentralized underwriting approach. Focus on the positive Now that 2008 is behind us, let’s continue to focus on the positives to come in 2009. Reflect on the past, but strive to center your attention on ongoing portfolio monitoring, financial risk management assessments and improvements for the future.

The credit reporting agencies will not identify Red Flags, as such, on a credit report. However, there may be certain information on a credit report that you have determined to be an indicator of possible identity theft and have incorporated into your Program, such as a consumer fraud alert or a notice of address discrepancy. In addition, the Red Flag Guidelines specify that a credit report indicating a pattern of inconsistent or unusual recent activity might be a Red Flag.

By: Tom Hannagan Part 6 Peer Group 2 fee income Non-interest income again, as a percent of average total assets, declined to .86 percent from .95 percent in 2007. For Peer Group 2 (PG2), fees have also been steadily declining relative to asset size, down from 1.04 percent of assets in 2005. A smaller, non-interest bearing deposit base with no other new and offsetting sources of fee income will lead to increased pressure on this metric. Operating expenses Operating expenses also put more pressure on earnings on these smaller banks. They increased from 2.79 percent to 2.83 percent of average assets. That’s four basis points on the negative. Historically, this metric has been flattering for this size bank and usually moves up or down from year-to-year. It was almost equal at 2.82 percent of assets in 2004. As a result of the sizeable decline in margins, the continued decline in fee income and the slight increase in operating expenses PG2’s efficiency ratio lost ground from 59.52 percent in 2007 to only 64.72 percent in 2008. That means that every dollar in gross revenue cost them almost 65 cents in administrative expenses this year. This metric averaged 56 cents in 2005/2006. It’s amazing how close these numbers are for banks of very different size where you would expect clear economies of scale. The total impact of margin performance, fee income and operating expenses, plus the huge increase in provision expense of 59 basis points leads us to a total decline in pre-tax operating income of .96 percent on total assets. That is a total decline from 1.58 percent pre-tax ROA in 2007 to .64 percent pre-tax ROA, a loss of 61 percent from the pre-tax performance in 2007. My same conclusion as above would hold regarding the pricing of risk into bank lending (although the smaller banks didn’t perform a badly as the larger in this regard). Although all 490 banks are declining in all profit metrics, the smaller banks seem to have an edge in pricing loans, but not deposits. Although up dramatically in 2007, and even more in 2008 for both groups, the PG2 banks seem to be suffering fewer credit losses relative to their asset size than their larger brethren. Both groups have resulting huge profit declines, but the largest banks are under the most pressure through this period. An interesting point, with higher loan yields and fewer apparent losses, is whether PG2 banks are somewhat better at risk-based pricing (for whatever reason) than the largest bank group. Results are results. The 2009 numbers aren’t expected to show a lot of improvement as the general economy continues to slow and credit and financial risk management issues continue. We’ll probably comment on 2009 as the quarterlies become available this year.


