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By: Tom Hannagan Part 2 Return on Equity (ROE) ROE is the risk-adjusted profit divided by the equity amount associated with the loan in question. ROE = Risk-adjusted profit Equity amount of the loan There are two large advantages to using ROE. One, you can use it to compare profit performance across asset-based and non-asset-based products. This can’t be done with ROA – if there’s no “A”, you can’t create the ratio. This seems to be a crucial consideration if you are serious about cross-selling non-asset-based products (such as deposits and a long list of non-credit financial services) and if you are serious about being a truly client relationship oriented organization. Second, by using ROE you have the possibility of risk-adjusting the amount of equity used in the denominator of the calculation. Adjusting the equity amount based on risk, in a credible manner, creates risk-adjusted ROE, or what is referred to as risk adjusted return on capital (RAROC). The equity amount applied to the loan represents all of the remaining risk or unexpected loss (UL).instance that we did not account for in the steps that got us to the risk-adjusted profit result. RAROC, or risk-adjusted ROE, is a fully risk-adjusted representation of relative value. This level of risk-based performance measurement also has the advantage of relating pricing and relationship management activities to the bank’scapital management process. So far, we have covered several of the key parts of how risk-based pricing can work. In doing so, we have discussed how the various elements involved in pricing relate to the bank’s books and policies. The loan balance, rate and fee data relates to the banks actual general ledger amounts. The administrative costs are also derived from actual non-interest expenses. The cost of funds is aligned with the policies used in ALSO and in IRR management processes. The cost of credit risk is related to the bank’s credit and provisioning policies. The taxes are the bank’s actual average experience. And, for banks using ROE/RAROC, the equity allocation is related to the bank’s overall risk posture and its capital sufficiency policies. I stated earlier that “Risk-based pricing analysis is a product-level microcosm of risk-based bank performance”. It is that and more. In addition to pricing’s linkage to financial figures and results, risk-based pricing should also be a reflection of the bank’s most critical risk management policies and governance processes.

By: Tom Hannagan Part 1 In my last post about risk-based pricing, we started a discussion of the major elements involved in the risk adjustment of loan pricing. We got down to a risk-adjusted pre-tax profit amount. Not to divert the present discussion too much, but we often use pre-tax performance numbers for entity level comparisons to avoid the vagaries of tax treatments. Some banks are sub-S corporations, while most are C corporations. There are differences in state tax levels and, there may be other tax deferral strategies such as, leasing activity and/or securities adjustments that can affect these after-tax numbers. So, pre-tax data can be very useful. After-tax profit and profitability ratios For internal comparisons across loans, client, lenders and other lines of business; and to better understand how the risk-adjusted profit from a loan or a relationship relate to overall bank performance, we prefer to get to an after-tax profit and profitability ratio. This is also necessary to compare loans or portfolios involving tax-exempt entities to loans with taxable interest income. To do this, we apply the bank’s average effective income tax rate (including federal and state) to the pre-tax result, with the exception of tax exempt loans. This gives us risk-adjusted net income (or profit) at the loan level. By arriving at risk-based profit estimates at the product level, we then have the opportunity to accumulate these for multi-product client relationships, or at lender or market segment levels. Clients can then go on to analyze the profit results in comparison to their distribution of risk ratings and break the risk-adjusted returns down by loan/collateral type, client geography or industry. Some banks have graphical displays of these results. In addition to profit level, and to assist with comparative capability, we continue to one or more profitability ratios. You can divide the profit amount by the average loan balance to get a risk-adjusted return on assets (ROA). ROA = Profit amount Average loan balance This is very helpful for looking at asset product performance and has been used historically by the banking industry for risk-based pricing. Many banks have moved beyond ROA and now focus on return on equity (ROE). For a more comprehensive discussion of ROA and ROE see my post from December 6, 2008. I will continue in my next post about Return on Equity.

Part 2 To continue the discussion from my last post, we also must realize that the small business borrower typically doesn’t wait until we are ready to perform our regularly scheduled risk management review to begin to show problems. While a delinquent payment is a definite sign of a problem with the borrower, the occurrence of a delinquent payment is often simply too late for any type of corrective action and will result in a high rate of loss or transfer to special assets. There are additional pitfalls around the individual risk rating of the small business borrower or the small business loans; but, I won’t discuss those here. Suffice to say, we can agree that the following holds true for portfolio risk management of small business loans: Active portfolio management is a must; Traditional commercial portfolio management techniques are not applicable due to the cost and effectiveness for the typical small business portfolio; and Collection efforts conducted at the time of a delinquency is too late in the process. One last thing, the regulators are starting to place higher demands on financial institutions for the identification and management of risk in the small business portfolio. It is becoming urgent and necessary to take a different approach to monitor that portfolio. Just as we have learned from the consumer approach for originating the loans, we can also learn from the basic techniques used for consumer loan portfolio risk management. We have to rely upon information that is readily available and does not require the involvement of the borrower to provide such information. Basically, this means that we need to gather information (such as updated business scores and behavioral data) from our loan accounting platforms to provide us with an indication of potential problems. We need to do that in an automated fashion. From such information we can begin to monitor: Changes in the business score of the small business borrower; Frequency and severity of delinquencies; Balances maintained on a line of credit; and Changes in deposit balances or activity including overdraft activity. This list is not exhaustive, but it represents a solid body of information that is both readily available and useful in determining the risk present in our small business portfolio. With technology enabling a more automated assessment of these factors, we have laid the groundwork to develop an efficient and effective approach to small business portfolio management. Such an approach provides real- time regular assessment of the portfolio, its overall composition and the necessary components needed to identify the potential problem credits within the portfolio. It is past time to take a new approach toward the proactive portfolio management of our small business loan portfolio retaining the spirit of commercial credit while adapting the techniques of consumer portfolio management to the small business portfolio.


