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It’s hard to believe, but it’s almost time again for marketers to begin their holiday campaign preparations. Leading up to these preparations, it’s important to reflect on consumer trends from Black Friday 2023 and derive insights for the coming year to shape successful marketing strategies.
Spending trends we saw in 2023
In 2023, consumer holiday spending was forecasted to rise at the slowest pace in five years due to inflation and cost of living concerns. Forrester reported that consumers weren’t spending less, but they were spending slower and paying less for what they bought to stretch their dollar further.
Despite slower spending, data showed a 7.5% increase in e-commerce sales from 2022 to 2023, with a record $9.8 billion spent online and the most substantial growth of in-store traffic in recent years, up 4.6% from the previous year. Shopify even reported record 2023 Black Friday sales numbers offline and offline, reaching $4.1 billion, with significant spending across personal care, clothing, jewelry, shoes, and decor. Around 75% of these sales occurred on mobile and 25% on desktop.
When people shopped in 2023
We also saw notable shifts in how, when, and where people shopped on Black Friday. One significant trend noted in our 2023 Holiday spending report was the increasing preference for early holiday shopping, particularly online. Consumers quickly responded to early discounts and promotions, which caused a surge in spending during October. Cyber Week, encompassing Black Friday through Cyber Monday, also played a significant role, accounting for 8% of total consumer holiday spending.
2023 trends we expect to see in 2024
As you gear up for the holiday season, understanding Black Friday trends from 2023 will be vital, as Black Friday 2024 is expected to see a continuation of several key trends alongside emerging ones:
- Mobile shopping will continue its growth trajectory.
- Consumers will keep seeking early deals.
- Marketers will prepare promotions sooner than ever.
- Flexible payment arrangements like “buy now/pay later” (BNPL) will drive conversions amid continued inflation.
- Channel switching will become more common.
- Paid search will drive the most sales.
Let’s talk about what past trends and future predictions mean for your marketing strategy and how you can use them to inform your 2024 holiday campaigns.
Emerging consumer behaviors
Consumer behaviors and preferences have been changing and reshaping the Black Friday shopping landscape over the last few years. Looking ahead to Black Friday 2024, several trends from last year are likely to continue shaping the shopping experience.
Early shopping
The early holiday shopping trend will continue to become more pronounced. Many consumers now begin their end-of-year shopping well before Halloween, seeking to take advantage of early deals and discounts, enjoy more time to compare prices and products, avoid crowds, secure popular items early, and spread out their budget. In 2023, Gallup found that one in four holiday shoppers even starts as early as September. This means your business must begin planning sales and promotions earlier in the season and roll them out sooner.
The value of experiences
We’re seeing an interesting shift toward gifting experiences over physical items among consumers with more disposable income. In a 2023 survey, one in five respondents said they’d prefer to get an experience as a gift over an item. Those in higher income brackets are allocating more of their holiday budgets to experiences that create lasting memories, such as theme park passes, art classes, concert tickets, and so forth. This trend will require retailers to get creative, potentially:
- Hosting giftable in-store events
- Enhancing the in-store experience
- Using experiential marketing to make deeper consumer connections
- Partnering with other companies to provide bundled gift/experience packages
Preference for digital channels
Media consumption habits and preferred engagement channels are also undergoing significant changes. Consumers increasingly turn to digital channels like streaming TV and connected TV (CTV) for entertainment and information. CTV ad spending, in particular, is expected to grow by 20% in 2024 and by low double digits into 2027. This shift will influence how retailers reach and engage with consumers, and it underscores the importance of digital marketing strategies and personalized online experiences.
Mobile vs. desktop online spending
The preference for mobile over desktop for online transactions is growing; in 2023, mobile devices comprised 54% of online sales, with online purchases up 10.4% from 2022 on Black Friday. More and more, consumers are using mobile devices to research, browse, and buy online. Marketers need to optimize their mobile and website experience to make the shopping experience seamless across all devices.
Key products and categories
Research has shown that the most popular in-store purchases of Black Friday weekend in 2023 included clothing/accessories and electronics.
- 82% of shoppers bought clothing in-store to inspect colors, material, and fit
- 73% said they would buy electronics in store to compare quality
These categories were followed by:
- Health and beauty (49%)
- Household appliances (44%)
- Sports/leisure (32%)
Interestingly, the same categories were also the top sellers online during Cyber Week 2023, with 79% of buyers seeking clothing/accessories and 66% intending to purchase electronics. Amazon was one of the most popular shopping destinations for Cyber Week 2023, with over a billion items sold. Some of the top-selling items included the Amazon Fire TV Stick and Ring Video Doorbell. This indicates a consistent consumer preference across different shopping channels and suggests shoppers are comfortable buying a wide range of products online, even during traditional in-store shopping events.
Looking ahead, retailers can reasonably anticipate continued demand for clothing/accessories and electronics, both in-store and online.
Marketing strategies that worked
Last year was a year of growth, albeit slow growth, despite economic uncertainty. Here are some of the marketing strategies deployed that contributed to this growth.
Influencer collaborations
Data from a 2023 Black Friday report showed that seven of every 10 shoppers acknowledged an influencer’s role in their purchase decision. Partnering with influencers to promote Black Friday deals and hosting live streaming sessions with influencers showcasing products helped reach new audiences and build credibility. Influencers’ recommendations resonated strongly with their followers, which drove traffic and increased sales.
Cross-channel marketing campaigns
Black Friday gives marketers a unique opportunity to engage audiences across touchpoints. Using a mix of channels, such as social media, email, websites, SMS, in-store promotions, and print media, tends to create more impactful campaigns.
Last year proved to be diverse in terms of marketing channel mix. Marketers embraced a cross-channel approach to connect with their users during holiday sales, which was evident in the increased usage of channels like email, SMS/MMS, web push notifications, and emerging channels like Roku messages. Using multiple channels to promote Black Friday deals increased visibility and reached a wider audience. This comprehensive approach ensured marketing messages reached customers wherever they were.
To maximize sales during the Cyber Five holiday season, activate Experian audiences as part of your omnichannel campaign. Our offerings include meticulously curated behavioral segments based on discount indicators such as Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Coupons/Sales. These segments help you target shoppers who are ready to take advantage of your promotions and are primed for early conversion. Our marketing data was ranked #1 in accuracy by Truthset, which means you can power smarter marketing initiatives, like insights, targeting, and measurement, using the highest-rated data.
App-only deals
In 2023, mobile app sales increased by 2% from 2022, generating a 12% increase in app purchases and $2 billion more in revenue than the year before. Businesses offering exclusive deals through their mobile apps incentivized customers to download and use the app for their purchases, which helped boost sales through a dedicated channel.
Limited-time offers
Time-limited offers are the essence of Black Friday and Cyber Week, giving shoppers a timeframe for getting the lowest prices of the year on certain products. Creating urgency is a highly effective way to get people to make a faster purchase decision.
Bath & Body Works is exemplary at using limited-time offers; once a year around Black Friday, they run a “Buy 3, Get 3” sale on the whole store for a single day, which encourages customers to stock up while getting their holiday shopping done.
Flash sales and hourly deals are shorter limited-time promotions that generate excitement, traffic, and sales. By highlighting specific products with steep discounts, retailers encourage customers to make instantaneous purchases. Amazon is known for these, which they refer to as Lightning Deals or product discounts available for only a few hours.
Early-bird discounts and exclusive previews
Retailers wanting to avoid overcrowded stores or website crashes can reward those who shop early with exclusive discounts or sneak peeks into Black Friday deals. This creates a feeling of urgency and privilege that leads to a purchase. Best Buy offers its Best Buy Plus and Best Buy Total members exclusive savings during a sale period just for them. They get early access to discounts toward the end of October, after which they open up their early bird deals to the public.
Predictions for Black Friday 2024
Based on what we’ve seen in 2023, we expect the following trends to shape consumer behavior on Black Friday and beyond in 2024.
Consumers will use their phones to shop more often than they already do
Mobile shopping is easy and discreet, allowing customers to shop from anywhere while staying on top of sales. Black Friday mobile orders increased from 2022 to 2023, with over 50% of all Black Friday sales occurring on smartphones. This indicates a growing trust in smartphone transactions among shoppers, which is why 2024 will likely reflect this trend.
As a marketer, this means you should ensure your website is optimized for smartphones and tablets. Ensure load speed is quick, navigation is simple, designs are intuitive, and mobile payment options are available. You also have an opportunity to invite your customers to sign up for SMS or push notifications so they can shop deals immediately after they’re rolled out.
While mobile should be a priority, we still recommend investing in multiple channels to capture online shoppers everywhere they’re buying. Our Graph can help you unify data, capture user activity, and view your target audience holistically to optimize ad spend, allocate resources effectively, and improve ROI.
Marketers will start preparing their Black Friday campaigns earlier than ever
With increasing market competition and pressure to accommodate early bird deal seekers, marketers will likely start preparing their discounts, inventories, and promotional materials earlier in the summer.
Data enrichment can help you prepare early Black Friday promos by providing deeper insights into your customers and what they want. Enriching your existing data with behavioral, financial, and demographic information can help you create precise audience segments and personalized content, anticipate customer preferences, optimize channel placement, and tailor your promotions effectively. On average, Experian has 250 behavioral and demographic marketing attributes per individual, which means we can decorate households and people with marketing data to get a full customer profile and fill in any gaps you have on your audience. You can also consider implementing sell-side targeting to help your promotions reach the right people.
If you plan to run early promotions, try not to create deal fatigue among your consumers. Focus on building a few high-quality promotions that will attract your target customers.
BNPL arrangements will become more common for conversion
Given lingering inflation in the U.S., consumers will still be looking for ways to stretch their money this year, and many shoppers may seek out BNPL arrangements. According to Deloitte, 37% of shoppers have used these services historically, and these arrangements have proven to increase conversions by up to 30%.
With so many shoppers wanting the financial convenience of making large purchases without the immediate financial burden, marketers can use data enrichment to identify their target segments most likely to use BNPL and create personalized offers and promotions for them. Your strategy should include high-value offers and messaging that appeal to budget-conscious shoppers and a checkout optimized for BNPL options.
Channel switching will surge
Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales are starting to become channel-agnostic, with consumers browsing online, on mobile apps, in physical stores, and on social media. As such, they expect a unified experience wherever they browse. Any inconsistency can disrupt the purchase journey and deter potential buyers.
As the shopping experience becomes more connected, consumers are moving between channels more frequently, which means integrating data from various touchpoints will be crucial to understanding and predicting customer behavior. Marketers must develop cohesive omnichannel strategies with consistent messaging and promotions across channels. Your campaigns should span multiple channels so customers can engage with your brand in various ways.
We work with major platforms, marketers, and agencies, which means we have existing partnerships across the ecosystem for you to connect with and bring your consumer data to life to meet your needs.
Paid search will drive the most sales
Research from Adobe shows paid search as the top sales driver of Cyber Week 2023, comprising nearly 30% of all online sales. Due to the high-intent customers captured by paid search and the surge in shopping on mobile devices, we expect to see paid search drive much of the Black Friday sales in 2024 — especially as advances in data analytics and AI allow marketers to optimize paid search campaigns more effectively. They can analyze vast amounts of data to refine keywords, ad copy, and bidding strategies for higher ROI and better targeting.
In 2024, it’s essential to prioritize paid search strategies and focus on using relevant, high-performing keywords for your campaigns. You can continuously refine your strategies using AI and data analytics to target high-intent customers. Additionally, integrating insights from customer behavior data will help you create more personalized, impactful ad copy and heighten the effectiveness of your paid search efforts.
Experian can help you win Black Friday 2024
Want your marketing campaigns to stand out and reach your audiences on Black Friday this year? Partner with Experian to create data-driven, targeted, impactful 2024 holiday campaigns.
Our data empowers you to gain valuable insights and optimize your holiday marketing strategies. We can connect online and physical transactions to our Experian household ID for a holistic view of customer behavior, connect ad exposure with foot traffic, or employ control group lift analysis to measure campaign effectiveness. By activating our purchase-based holiday audiences, like last-minute and one-stop holiday shoppers, you can reach the segments most likely to spend with you. Integrating with over 150 channels, we’ll help your campaigns reach your audience wherever they are. You can even utilize our connections to various digital platforms and partners to expand your reach.
With Experian’s measurement offerings, you can make data-driven decisions about your activation strategies. Engage the right audiences and drive exceptional results this holiday season with Experian.
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Hi, Dana here with an update on my holiday shopping post from before Thanksgiving. Like I thought, I was able to get most of my shopping done that Black Friday weekend. It was all pretty fast and easy, but I did have one not so great experience too. My sister knew I was going to get something for my niece, so when she got an email from Toy World that everything would be 50% off on Black Friday she forwarded it to me to let me know. I was thrilled. I had done some searching for good toys this year and had some ideas. While I normally would shop online, the Toy World coupon said the 50% off was in-store only so I braved the crowds for a good deal. Unfortunately, when I got there I learned that the email was wrong – only select items were 50% off and others were buy one, get one 50% off. I was pretty upset because the hottest toys were the ones excluded from the deal. I came all that way based on the email. I wound up getting a gift, but I could have saved myself the hassle and long lines, especially since I didn’t get a deal that was different from any other day. That was a rough start to the shopping weekend, but, no worries, things improved. I have to tell you about my best shopping experience – I’ve been telling everyone! This year I used Pinterest to see what my mom has had her eye on lately. One of her pins is a food processor and I think that’s a perfect gift for her. I’m a card holder and reward member at Aaron’s department store and I know they carry some really nice kitchen appliances. They also happened to send me great Cyber Monday coupons in the mail – it was perfect timing. I went online on Cyber Monday, used the promo codes from the coupons and not only got great deals, but got free shipping too! How easy was that?! They also sent me shipping notifications so I knew exactly when to expect the package. I am really happy that I got something great for everyone on my list and now have time to enjoy the rest of 2012. I hope you enjoy it too! XOXO, Dana Editor’s note: You can tell that Aaron’s knows Dana. They used their direct mail piece to send her online offers because they know that’s her preferred purchase method. They’ve won her over once again and created a brand advocate. Learn where your company stands in your marketing efforts today, and how you can help move efforts forward to ensure your customers have good experiences like Dana had with Aaron’s, and avoid bad ones like her trip to Toy World.
With the busy holiday marketing season in full swing, Experian Marketing Services has released its online retail round-up for the week ending December 8. The online traffic to the top 500 retail sites increased 5% for the period of December 2 – 8, compared to the same week in 2011. Additionally, Amazon remained the top visited site among retailers, followed by Walmart and Target. The chart below includes the top 10 results: Experian Marketing Services also tracks top product searches. Listed below are the top 5 product searches for the week ending December 8: Uggs iPad mini iPad Beats by dre Ipod touch We will continue to publish weekly retail site data and insights through this holiday season. Please leave us a comment below if you have any specific questions along the way. Learn more about the author, Matt Tatham
Twenty years ago this week, the first mobile text message, or SMS, was sent by British engineer Neil Papworth. Today, Americans are texting more than ever and among young adults, many of whom were not yet born when the first message was sent, texting is almost as common a mobile activity as talking. And why wouldn’t it be? According to the latest Simmons National Consumer Study, 48% of adults ages 18-to-24 say that a conversation via text message is just as meaningful as a telephone call. A similar share of adults ages 25-to-34 feel the same way. Regardless of age, texting is still, technically, the second most common activity that Americans engage in on their cell phone after talking. During a typical week, 95% of mobile adults talk on their mobile phone, while 59% text. Among adults ages 18-to-24, however, 89% talk on their phone and 85% text. Despite the increasing availability of mobile chat or instant message applications, texting remains the dominant means for exchanging short messages. Only 8% of all mobile adults use their phone to IM or chat. The fastest thumbs To get a more in-depth understanding of the texting habits of adults today, we leveraged data from the Simmons Connect mobile panel of 1,485 U.S. smartphone owners. Hands down, young adults text more than any age other age group. During a typical month, in fact, smartphone-owners ages 18-to-24 send 2,022 mobile text messages and receive another 1,831 for a combined total of 3,852 texts sent and received. With every age bracket we move up, the number of mobile texts drops by roughly 40%. For instance, smartphone owners ages 25-to-34 send, on average, 1,110 text messages a month and receive another 1,130 for a combined total of 2,240 messages. We are also able to leverage the Simmons Connect smartphone panel to understand mobile calling behaviors. The data shows that while young adults hold the record for the most text messages sent and received, they actually make and receive few calls, by comparison. During a typical month, smartphone owners ages 18-to-24 make 119 calls on their mobile phone and answer another 64 calls. Adults ages 35-to-44 make and receive the most calls on their mobile phones in a given month. (Call counts do not include inbound and outbound calls that go unanswered.) Text around the clock Unlike television and radio, which have peak hours for reaching consumers, mobile text messages reach Americans throughout the day, providing advertisers with a medium to connect with consumers any time they want or need. No surprise, young adults are the most likely to send and receive mobile text messages throughout the day. The smartphone panel data shows that during every hour between 8:00 A.M. and midnight, more than half of young smartphone owners are both sending and receiving mobile text messages. Even when most of us are asleep, young adults’ smartphones continue buzzing from inbound texts. In fact, 37% of 18-to-24 year-old smartphone owners receive texts at 4:00 in the morning. By comparison, just 20% of smartphone-owners ages 25-to-34 years-old receive texts at this late (or early) hour as do 17% of those 35-to-44, 15% of those 45-to-54 and 10% of those ages 55 and older. Better to send or to receive? During overnight hours, the share of young smartphone owners who send texts surpasses the share who receives them. However, by 8:00 A.M., the difference between those two figures narrows to the point that they are nearly equal. In fact, from noon until 11:00 P.M., young adults are more likely to send mobile text messages than they are to receive them. Call or text? While texting is still a secondary use of mobile phones after calling, that’s not the case all day, especially among young adults. In fact, while smartphone owners ages 18-to-24 are more likely to make an outbound call than they are to send a text from their phone between 7:00 A.M. and 10:00 P.M., they are more likely to send a text between 11:00 P.M. and 6:00 A.M., during hours when they might understandably wake the recipient. That should help us all sleep a little better.