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It’s hard to believe, but it’s almost time again for marketers to begin their holiday campaign preparations. Leading up to these preparations, it’s important to reflect on consumer trends from Black Friday 2023 and derive insights for the coming year to shape successful marketing strategies.
Spending trends we saw in 2023
In 2023, consumer holiday spending was forecasted to rise at the slowest pace in five years due to inflation and cost of living concerns. Forrester reported that consumers weren’t spending less, but they were spending slower and paying less for what they bought to stretch their dollar further.
Despite slower spending, data showed a 7.5% increase in e-commerce sales from 2022 to 2023, with a record $9.8 billion spent online and the most substantial growth of in-store traffic in recent years, up 4.6% from the previous year. Shopify even reported record 2023 Black Friday sales numbers offline and offline, reaching $4.1 billion, with significant spending across personal care, clothing, jewelry, shoes, and decor. Around 75% of these sales occurred on mobile and 25% on desktop.
When people shopped in 2023
We also saw notable shifts in how, when, and where people shopped on Black Friday. One significant trend noted in our 2023 Holiday spending report was the increasing preference for early holiday shopping, particularly online. Consumers quickly responded to early discounts and promotions, which caused a surge in spending during October. Cyber Week, encompassing Black Friday through Cyber Monday, also played a significant role, accounting for 8% of total consumer holiday spending.
2023 trends we expect to see in 2024
As you gear up for the holiday season, understanding Black Friday trends from 2023 will be vital, as Black Friday 2024 is expected to see a continuation of several key trends alongside emerging ones:
- Mobile shopping will continue its growth trajectory.
- Consumers will keep seeking early deals.
- Marketers will prepare promotions sooner than ever.
- Flexible payment arrangements like “buy now/pay later” (BNPL) will drive conversions amid continued inflation.
- Channel switching will become more common.
- Paid search will drive the most sales.
Let’s talk about what past trends and future predictions mean for your marketing strategy and how you can use them to inform your 2024 holiday campaigns.
Emerging consumer behaviors
Consumer behaviors and preferences have been changing and reshaping the Black Friday shopping landscape over the last few years. Looking ahead to Black Friday 2024, several trends from last year are likely to continue shaping the shopping experience.
Early shopping
The early holiday shopping trend will continue to become more pronounced. Many consumers now begin their end-of-year shopping well before Halloween, seeking to take advantage of early deals and discounts, enjoy more time to compare prices and products, avoid crowds, secure popular items early, and spread out their budget. In 2023, Gallup found that one in four holiday shoppers even starts as early as September. This means your business must begin planning sales and promotions earlier in the season and roll them out sooner.
The value of experiences
We’re seeing an interesting shift toward gifting experiences over physical items among consumers with more disposable income. In a 2023 survey, one in five respondents said they’d prefer to get an experience as a gift over an item. Those in higher income brackets are allocating more of their holiday budgets to experiences that create lasting memories, such as theme park passes, art classes, concert tickets, and so forth. This trend will require retailers to get creative, potentially:
- Hosting giftable in-store events
- Enhancing the in-store experience
- Using experiential marketing to make deeper consumer connections
- Partnering with other companies to provide bundled gift/experience packages
Preference for digital channels
Media consumption habits and preferred engagement channels are also undergoing significant changes. Consumers increasingly turn to digital channels like streaming TV and connected TV (CTV) for entertainment and information. CTV ad spending, in particular, is expected to grow by 20% in 2024 and by low double digits into 2027. This shift will influence how retailers reach and engage with consumers, and it underscores the importance of digital marketing strategies and personalized online experiences.
Mobile vs. desktop online spending
The preference for mobile over desktop for online transactions is growing; in 2023, mobile devices comprised 54% of online sales, with online purchases up 10.4% from 2022 on Black Friday. More and more, consumers are using mobile devices to research, browse, and buy online. Marketers need to optimize their mobile and website experience to make the shopping experience seamless across all devices.
Key products and categories
Research has shown that the most popular in-store purchases of Black Friday weekend in 2023 included clothing/accessories and electronics.
- 82% of shoppers bought clothing in-store to inspect colors, material, and fit
- 73% said they would buy electronics in store to compare quality
These categories were followed by:
- Health and beauty (49%)
- Household appliances (44%)
- Sports/leisure (32%)
Interestingly, the same categories were also the top sellers online during Cyber Week 2023, with 79% of buyers seeking clothing/accessories and 66% intending to purchase electronics. Amazon was one of the most popular shopping destinations for Cyber Week 2023, with over a billion items sold. Some of the top-selling items included the Amazon Fire TV Stick and Ring Video Doorbell. This indicates a consistent consumer preference across different shopping channels and suggests shoppers are comfortable buying a wide range of products online, even during traditional in-store shopping events.
Looking ahead, retailers can reasonably anticipate continued demand for clothing/accessories and electronics, both in-store and online.
Marketing strategies that worked
Last year was a year of growth, albeit slow growth, despite economic uncertainty. Here are some of the marketing strategies deployed that contributed to this growth.
Influencer collaborations
Data from a 2023 Black Friday report showed that seven of every 10 shoppers acknowledged an influencer’s role in their purchase decision. Partnering with influencers to promote Black Friday deals and hosting live streaming sessions with influencers showcasing products helped reach new audiences and build credibility. Influencers’ recommendations resonated strongly with their followers, which drove traffic and increased sales.
Cross-channel marketing campaigns
Black Friday gives marketers a unique opportunity to engage audiences across touchpoints. Using a mix of channels, such as social media, email, websites, SMS, in-store promotions, and print media, tends to create more impactful campaigns.
Last year proved to be diverse in terms of marketing channel mix. Marketers embraced a cross-channel approach to connect with their users during holiday sales, which was evident in the increased usage of channels like email, SMS/MMS, web push notifications, and emerging channels like Roku messages. Using multiple channels to promote Black Friday deals increased visibility and reached a wider audience. This comprehensive approach ensured marketing messages reached customers wherever they were.
To maximize sales during the Cyber Five holiday season, activate Experian audiences as part of your omnichannel campaign. Our offerings include meticulously curated behavioral segments based on discount indicators such as Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Coupons/Sales. These segments help you target shoppers who are ready to take advantage of your promotions and are primed for early conversion. Our marketing data was ranked #1 in accuracy by Truthset, which means you can power smarter marketing initiatives, like insights, targeting, and measurement, using the highest-rated data.
App-only deals
In 2023, mobile app sales increased by 2% from 2022, generating a 12% increase in app purchases and $2 billion more in revenue than the year before. Businesses offering exclusive deals through their mobile apps incentivized customers to download and use the app for their purchases, which helped boost sales through a dedicated channel.
Limited-time offers
Time-limited offers are the essence of Black Friday and Cyber Week, giving shoppers a timeframe for getting the lowest prices of the year on certain products. Creating urgency is a highly effective way to get people to make a faster purchase decision.
Bath & Body Works is exemplary at using limited-time offers; once a year around Black Friday, they run a “Buy 3, Get 3” sale on the whole store for a single day, which encourages customers to stock up while getting their holiday shopping done.
Flash sales and hourly deals are shorter limited-time promotions that generate excitement, traffic, and sales. By highlighting specific products with steep discounts, retailers encourage customers to make instantaneous purchases. Amazon is known for these, which they refer to as Lightning Deals or product discounts available for only a few hours.
Early-bird discounts and exclusive previews
Retailers wanting to avoid overcrowded stores or website crashes can reward those who shop early with exclusive discounts or sneak peeks into Black Friday deals. This creates a feeling of urgency and privilege that leads to a purchase. Best Buy offers its Best Buy Plus and Best Buy Total members exclusive savings during a sale period just for them. They get early access to discounts toward the end of October, after which they open up their early bird deals to the public.
Predictions for Black Friday 2024
Based on what we’ve seen in 2023, we expect the following trends to shape consumer behavior on Black Friday and beyond in 2024.
Consumers will use their phones to shop more often than they already do
Mobile shopping is easy and discreet, allowing customers to shop from anywhere while staying on top of sales. Black Friday mobile orders increased from 2022 to 2023, with over 50% of all Black Friday sales occurring on smartphones. This indicates a growing trust in smartphone transactions among shoppers, which is why 2024 will likely reflect this trend.
As a marketer, this means you should ensure your website is optimized for smartphones and tablets. Ensure load speed is quick, navigation is simple, designs are intuitive, and mobile payment options are available. You also have an opportunity to invite your customers to sign up for SMS or push notifications so they can shop deals immediately after they’re rolled out.
While mobile should be a priority, we still recommend investing in multiple channels to capture online shoppers everywhere they’re buying. Our Graph can help you unify data, capture user activity, and view your target audience holistically to optimize ad spend, allocate resources effectively, and improve ROI.
Marketers will start preparing their Black Friday campaigns earlier than ever
With increasing market competition and pressure to accommodate early bird deal seekers, marketers will likely start preparing their discounts, inventories, and promotional materials earlier in the summer.
Data enrichment can help you prepare early Black Friday promos by providing deeper insights into your customers and what they want. Enriching your existing data with behavioral, financial, and demographic information can help you create precise audience segments and personalized content, anticipate customer preferences, optimize channel placement, and tailor your promotions effectively. On average, Experian has 250 behavioral and demographic marketing attributes per individual, which means we can decorate households and people with marketing data to get a full customer profile and fill in any gaps you have on your audience. You can also consider implementing sell-side targeting to help your promotions reach the right people.
If you plan to run early promotions, try not to create deal fatigue among your consumers. Focus on building a few high-quality promotions that will attract your target customers.
BNPL arrangements will become more common for conversion
Given lingering inflation in the U.S., consumers will still be looking for ways to stretch their money this year, and many shoppers may seek out BNPL arrangements. According to Deloitte, 37% of shoppers have used these services historically, and these arrangements have proven to increase conversions by up to 30%.
With so many shoppers wanting the financial convenience of making large purchases without the immediate financial burden, marketers can use data enrichment to identify their target segments most likely to use BNPL and create personalized offers and promotions for them. Your strategy should include high-value offers and messaging that appeal to budget-conscious shoppers and a checkout optimized for BNPL options.
Channel switching will surge
Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales are starting to become channel-agnostic, with consumers browsing online, on mobile apps, in physical stores, and on social media. As such, they expect a unified experience wherever they browse. Any inconsistency can disrupt the purchase journey and deter potential buyers.
As the shopping experience becomes more connected, consumers are moving between channels more frequently, which means integrating data from various touchpoints will be crucial to understanding and predicting customer behavior. Marketers must develop cohesive omnichannel strategies with consistent messaging and promotions across channels. Your campaigns should span multiple channels so customers can engage with your brand in various ways.
We work with major platforms, marketers, and agencies, which means we have existing partnerships across the ecosystem for you to connect with and bring your consumer data to life to meet your needs.
Paid search will drive the most sales
Research from Adobe shows paid search as the top sales driver of Cyber Week 2023, comprising nearly 30% of all online sales. Due to the high-intent customers captured by paid search and the surge in shopping on mobile devices, we expect to see paid search drive much of the Black Friday sales in 2024 — especially as advances in data analytics and AI allow marketers to optimize paid search campaigns more effectively. They can analyze vast amounts of data to refine keywords, ad copy, and bidding strategies for higher ROI and better targeting.
In 2024, it’s essential to prioritize paid search strategies and focus on using relevant, high-performing keywords for your campaigns. You can continuously refine your strategies using AI and data analytics to target high-intent customers. Additionally, integrating insights from customer behavior data will help you create more personalized, impactful ad copy and heighten the effectiveness of your paid search efforts.
Experian can help you win Black Friday 2024
Want your marketing campaigns to stand out and reach your audiences on Black Friday this year? Partner with Experian to create data-driven, targeted, impactful 2024 holiday campaigns.
Our data empowers you to gain valuable insights and optimize your holiday marketing strategies. We can connect online and physical transactions to our Experian household ID for a holistic view of customer behavior, connect ad exposure with foot traffic, or employ control group lift analysis to measure campaign effectiveness. By activating our purchase-based holiday audiences, like last-minute and one-stop holiday shoppers, you can reach the segments most likely to spend with you. Integrating with over 150 channels, we’ll help your campaigns reach your audience wherever they are. You can even utilize our connections to various digital platforms and partners to expand your reach.
With Experian’s measurement offerings, you can make data-driven decisions about your activation strategies. Engage the right audiences and drive exceptional results this holiday season with Experian.
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Spiders, Rams, Seminoles, Golden Eagles, and Bulldogs. This is one way to describe the diverse collection of Cinderella teams that have advanced to the Sweet 16 in this year's NCAA men's basketball tournament. Four of these teams, the University of Richmond, Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU), Florida State, and Marquette, take their double-digit seeds to the next round in hopes of reaching the Elite 8. Butler, last year's Cinderella story, is seeking a visit to the Final Four for the second straight year. Interestingly, Richmond, VA is the home market for two of the Sweet 16 teams. These are the University of Richmond and VCU. Even more interesting is the fact that these two teams are on a collision course. With wins in the next round they would meet in the Elite 8 for a prized spot in the Final Four. With their surprise victories in the tournament so far, what these teams have in common is being labeled “bracket busters.” A more extensive market analysis uncovers other similarities, plus some notable differences. Here are highlights from profiles of the home market areas for this year's Cinderella teams using data from Experian's Mosaic consumer lifestyle segmentation system and Experian Simmons market research. The following statistics are based on the home markets of the five Cinderella teams. All four Cinderella teams hail from markets with above average interest in college basketball. Milwaukee, home of 11th seeded Marquette, has the highest concentration of adults who are interested in college basketball (28.1%). This is 11 percent relatively higher than percentage for the total U.S. Milwaukee also has the highest percentage of adults who said they watched last year's men's NCAA Division I tournament (17.3%). This is a relative six percent higher than the total U.S. The 10th seeded Florida State Seminoles hail from Tallahassee, which has the second highest percentage of adults with an interest in college basketball (26.9%). Richmond, where both 11th seeded VCU and 12th seeded Richmond are based, is just behind Tallahassee when it comes to the percentage of adults who are interested in college basketball (26.7%). Indianapolis has the lowest percent of residents who are interested in college basketball (26.3%), but that's still a relative four percent higher than the U.S. as a whole. Although interest should be very high this year, Richmond and Indianapolis (15.8% each) have the lowest percentage of adults who watched last year's tournament. Cinderella Team Market Snapshots Richmond, VA Home market of: Richmond Spiders, VCU Rams Sweet 16 opponents: Kansas, Florida State The top two segments in Richmond representing 30% of the market's households are: Metro Minority Communities (18.1%) comprised of married couples and single-parent minorities earning above average incomes from a mix of service industry and white-collar jobs in transportation, health care, education, and public administration. Urban Commuter Families (11.5%) comprised of upscale, college educated Baby Boomer families and couples living in single detached homes in city neighborhoods on the metropolitan fringe. Other interesting facts: Most over-represented segment is Metro Minority Communities (3.8 times the national average) Percent of adults with interest in college basketball is 26.7% Percent of adults who watched last year's men's college basketball tournament is 15.8% Tallahassee, FL Home market of: Florida State Seminoles Sweet 16 opponent: VCU Rams Similar to Richmond, the top two segments in Tallahassee are Metro Minority Communities (14.8%) and Urban Commuter Families (6.9%). The two segments that account for the next highest share of households are: Struggling City Centers (6.7%) comprised of young, single and single-parent minority renters living in low-income city neighborhoods. Rural Southern Living (6.5%) comprised of lower-income blue-collar couples and families living in sparsely settled mobile home communities. Other interesting facts: Most over-represented market segment is College Town Communities (6.2 times the national average) Percent of adults with interest in college basketball is 26.9% Percent of adults who watched last year's men's college basketball tournament is 16.8% Milwaukee, WI Home market of: Marquette Golden Eagles Sweet 16 opponent: North Carolina Tarheels The top segment in Milwaukee representing 11.2% of households is Urban Commuter Families (as described above). The two segments that account for the next highest share of households are: Small-town Success (10.5%) comprised of white collar, college educated, middle-aged working couples living in newly developed subdivisions outside the nation's beltways. Steadfast Conservative (9.3%) comprised of high-school educated mature singles and couples living in middle-class urban blue-collar neighborhoods. Other interesting facts: Most over-represented market segment is Successful Suburbia (3.6 times the national average) Percent of adults with interest in college basketball is 28.1% Percent of adults who watched last year's men's college basketball tournament is 17.3% Indianapolis, IN Home market of: Butler Bulldogs Sweet 16 opponent: Wisconsin Badgers There are four equal size segments that account for just over 30% of Indianapolis households. These include Steadfast Conservative (8.9%), Urban Commuter Families (7.8%), and Small-town Success (7.1%). All three of these segments are also among the top five in Richmond, Tallahassee, and Milwaukee. What makes Indianapolis unique from the other three markets is a higher percentage of New Suburbia Families (7.2%). These are young, affluent working couples with pre-school children concentrated in fast-growing, metro fringe communities. Other interesting facts: Most over-represented market segment is Successful Suburbia (2.8 times the national average) Percent of adults with interest in college basketball is 26.3% Percent of adults who watched last year's men's college basketball tournament is 15.8%
Tournament play begins this week in the 2011 NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Tournament, which means office productivity is likely to take a hit as fans jump online to watch live streams of games being played during working hours. With online viewing options expanded to mobile and other digital platforms this year, fans have more avenues than ever to get their March Madness fix. In fact, according to a recent estimate by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, total online tournament viewership during work hours is likely to reach 8.4 million hours during this year's tournament. In this latest installment of Experian Marketing Services' continuing March Madness consumer coverage, we'll profile the work life of online game streamers. Is there one down the hall or in the next cube? The answer is almost certainly “yes,” but the “who” may surprise you. According to Experian Simmons, just over 5% of all U.S. adults and nearly a quarter of adult NCAA men's tournament viewers (24%) qualify as likely online game streamers. For the purpose of this analysis, likely online game streamers is defined as those U.S. adults who watched the last NCAA men's basketball tournament who also sought out sports information online or watched online video in the last 30 days. These likely online game streamers must have also visited either cbssports.com or espn.com in the last 30 days. Fully 79% of likely online game streamers are employed either full-or or part-time, with 59% working 40 or more hours a week. Department managers and IT staff-have reason to be concerned about a loss in productivity during March Madness: fully 79% of likely online game streamers are employed either full-or or part-time, with 59% working 40 or more hours a week. Don't be so quick to suspect that colleague who always shows up late and goes home early as a game streamer. A safer bet would be the guy who's always at his desk when you get in and still there when you head out. In fact, one-in-ten adults who work more than 40 hours a week (11%) are likely online game streamers, meaning they're more than twice as likely as the average adult to be checking out the game online. Remote employees who work at home often get a bad rap with office “suits” sometimes assuming their pajama-clad colleagues fall prey to distractions. Actually though, Americans who work from home are no more or less likely to be likely online streamers than those who don't work from home. Likewise, the self-employed are no more or less likely to be online game streamers than laborers who work for “the man.” Interestingly, Experian Simmons found a direct correlation between company size and a worker's chance of being a likely online game streamer. Specifically: Those who work in companies with fewer than 100 employees are 17% less likely than the average American worker to be likely online game streamers. Those who work in companies with between 100 and 499 employees are just two percent less likely than average to be likely streamers while those employed by companies with between 500 and 999 employees are eight percent more likely to be online game streamers. Employees of companies with 1,000 or more employees are the most likely culprits with the group on average being 17% more likely to be likely online game streamers. As such, it's no surprise that Fortune 500 companies are the most at risk of having offices full of online streamers during March Madness. Employees of Fortune 500 companies are fully 66% more likely to be online game streamers than those who Americans employed by a non-Fortune 500 company. Finally, the best insight into whether your office mates are streaming basketball games online instead of working is by looking at their paycheck (not that we encourage that of course). Specifically, as income rises, so does one's chance of being an online game streamer: Employed Americans who personally earn less than $25,000 annually are the least likely to be online game streamers, scoring 50% below average on this metric. Those who earn between $25,000 and $49,999 are only 15% less likely to be game streamers. If you know or suspect that your colleague earns upwards of $50,000 a year, it's a good idea to keep an eye on them for the rest of the month; workers with incomes between $50,000 and $74,999 are 33% more likely than average to be likely game streamers and those who earn between $75,000 and $99,999 are 75% more likely to be likely game streamers. Your colleagues earning $100,000 or more annually are the most likely to be streaming online, with those personally taking home between $100,000 and $149,000 being a whopping 164% more likely than the average employee to be streaming games online. And those earning $150,000 or more annually being fully 176% more likely to be online game streamers. Moreover, one-in-five adults who earn $150,000 a year or more fall into our likely online game streamers segment compared with just 5% of all U.S. adults. The first match-up to be played during the traditional workday tips off at 12:15 EDT on Thursday March 17th when West Virginia takes on the winner of the second round-one play-in game. Armed with this information, you should be able to catch-or join-your office's online game streamers in the act.