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It’s hard to believe, but it’s almost time again for marketers to begin their holiday campaign preparations. Leading up to these preparations, it’s important to reflect on consumer trends from Black Friday 2023 and derive insights for the coming year to shape successful marketing strategies.
Spending trends we saw in 2023
In 2023, consumer holiday spending was forecasted to rise at the slowest pace in five years due to inflation and cost of living concerns. Forrester reported that consumers weren’t spending less, but they were spending slower and paying less for what they bought to stretch their dollar further.
Despite slower spending, data showed a 7.5% increase in e-commerce sales from 2022 to 2023, with a record $9.8 billion spent online and the most substantial growth of in-store traffic in recent years, up 4.6% from the previous year. Shopify even reported record 2023 Black Friday sales numbers offline and offline, reaching $4.1 billion, with significant spending across personal care, clothing, jewelry, shoes, and decor. Around 75% of these sales occurred on mobile and 25% on desktop.
When people shopped in 2023
We also saw notable shifts in how, when, and where people shopped on Black Friday. One significant trend noted in our 2023 Holiday spending report was the increasing preference for early holiday shopping, particularly online. Consumers quickly responded to early discounts and promotions, which caused a surge in spending during October. Cyber Week, encompassing Black Friday through Cyber Monday, also played a significant role, accounting for 8% of total consumer holiday spending.
2023 trends we expect to see in 2024
As you gear up for the holiday season, understanding Black Friday trends from 2023 will be vital, as Black Friday 2024 is expected to see a continuation of several key trends alongside emerging ones:
- Mobile shopping will continue its growth trajectory.
- Consumers will keep seeking early deals.
- Marketers will prepare promotions sooner than ever.
- Flexible payment arrangements like “buy now/pay later” (BNPL) will drive conversions amid continued inflation.
- Channel switching will become more common.
- Paid search will drive the most sales.
Let’s talk about what past trends and future predictions mean for your marketing strategy and how you can use them to inform your 2024 holiday campaigns.
Emerging consumer behaviors
Consumer behaviors and preferences have been changing and reshaping the Black Friday shopping landscape over the last few years. Looking ahead to Black Friday 2024, several trends from last year are likely to continue shaping the shopping experience.
Early shopping
The early holiday shopping trend will continue to become more pronounced. Many consumers now begin their end-of-year shopping well before Halloween, seeking to take advantage of early deals and discounts, enjoy more time to compare prices and products, avoid crowds, secure popular items early, and spread out their budget. In 2023, Gallup found that one in four holiday shoppers even starts as early as September. This means your business must begin planning sales and promotions earlier in the season and roll them out sooner.
The value of experiences
We’re seeing an interesting shift toward gifting experiences over physical items among consumers with more disposable income. In a 2023 survey, one in five respondents said they’d prefer to get an experience as a gift over an item. Those in higher income brackets are allocating more of their holiday budgets to experiences that create lasting memories, such as theme park passes, art classes, concert tickets, and so forth. This trend will require retailers to get creative, potentially:
- Hosting giftable in-store events
- Enhancing the in-store experience
- Using experiential marketing to make deeper consumer connections
- Partnering with other companies to provide bundled gift/experience packages
Preference for digital channels
Media consumption habits and preferred engagement channels are also undergoing significant changes. Consumers increasingly turn to digital channels like streaming TV and connected TV (CTV) for entertainment and information. CTV ad spending, in particular, is expected to grow by 20% in 2024 and by low double digits into 2027. This shift will influence how retailers reach and engage with consumers, and it underscores the importance of digital marketing strategies and personalized online experiences.
Mobile vs. desktop online spending
The preference for mobile over desktop for online transactions is growing; in 2023, mobile devices comprised 54% of online sales, with online purchases up 10.4% from 2022 on Black Friday. More and more, consumers are using mobile devices to research, browse, and buy online. Marketers need to optimize their mobile and website experience to make the shopping experience seamless across all devices.
Key products and categories
Research has shown that the most popular in-store purchases of Black Friday weekend in 2023 included clothing/accessories and electronics.
- 82% of shoppers bought clothing in-store to inspect colors, material, and fit
- 73% said they would buy electronics in store to compare quality
These categories were followed by:
- Health and beauty (49%)
- Household appliances (44%)
- Sports/leisure (32%)
Interestingly, the same categories were also the top sellers online during Cyber Week 2023, with 79% of buyers seeking clothing/accessories and 66% intending to purchase electronics. Amazon was one of the most popular shopping destinations for Cyber Week 2023, with over a billion items sold. Some of the top-selling items included the Amazon Fire TV Stick and Ring Video Doorbell. This indicates a consistent consumer preference across different shopping channels and suggests shoppers are comfortable buying a wide range of products online, even during traditional in-store shopping events.
Looking ahead, retailers can reasonably anticipate continued demand for clothing/accessories and electronics, both in-store and online.
Marketing strategies that worked
Last year was a year of growth, albeit slow growth, despite economic uncertainty. Here are some of the marketing strategies deployed that contributed to this growth.
Influencer collaborations
Data from a 2023 Black Friday report showed that seven of every 10 shoppers acknowledged an influencer’s role in their purchase decision. Partnering with influencers to promote Black Friday deals and hosting live streaming sessions with influencers showcasing products helped reach new audiences and build credibility. Influencers’ recommendations resonated strongly with their followers, which drove traffic and increased sales.
Cross-channel marketing campaigns
Black Friday gives marketers a unique opportunity to engage audiences across touchpoints. Using a mix of channels, such as social media, email, websites, SMS, in-store promotions, and print media, tends to create more impactful campaigns.
Last year proved to be diverse in terms of marketing channel mix. Marketers embraced a cross-channel approach to connect with their users during holiday sales, which was evident in the increased usage of channels like email, SMS/MMS, web push notifications, and emerging channels like Roku messages. Using multiple channels to promote Black Friday deals increased visibility and reached a wider audience. This comprehensive approach ensured marketing messages reached customers wherever they were.
To maximize sales during the Cyber Five holiday season, activate Experian audiences as part of your omnichannel campaign. Our offerings include meticulously curated behavioral segments based on discount indicators such as Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Coupons/Sales. These segments help you target shoppers who are ready to take advantage of your promotions and are primed for early conversion. Our marketing data was ranked #1 in accuracy by Truthset, which means you can power smarter marketing initiatives, like insights, targeting, and measurement, using the highest-rated data.
App-only deals
In 2023, mobile app sales increased by 2% from 2022, generating a 12% increase in app purchases and $2 billion more in revenue than the year before. Businesses offering exclusive deals through their mobile apps incentivized customers to download and use the app for their purchases, which helped boost sales through a dedicated channel.
Limited-time offers
Time-limited offers are the essence of Black Friday and Cyber Week, giving shoppers a timeframe for getting the lowest prices of the year on certain products. Creating urgency is a highly effective way to get people to make a faster purchase decision.
Bath & Body Works is exemplary at using limited-time offers; once a year around Black Friday, they run a “Buy 3, Get 3” sale on the whole store for a single day, which encourages customers to stock up while getting their holiday shopping done.
Flash sales and hourly deals are shorter limited-time promotions that generate excitement, traffic, and sales. By highlighting specific products with steep discounts, retailers encourage customers to make instantaneous purchases. Amazon is known for these, which they refer to as Lightning Deals or product discounts available for only a few hours.
Early-bird discounts and exclusive previews
Retailers wanting to avoid overcrowded stores or website crashes can reward those who shop early with exclusive discounts or sneak peeks into Black Friday deals. This creates a feeling of urgency and privilege that leads to a purchase. Best Buy offers its Best Buy Plus and Best Buy Total members exclusive savings during a sale period just for them. They get early access to discounts toward the end of October, after which they open up their early bird deals to the public.
Predictions for Black Friday 2024
Based on what we’ve seen in 2023, we expect the following trends to shape consumer behavior on Black Friday and beyond in 2024.
Consumers will use their phones to shop more often than they already do
Mobile shopping is easy and discreet, allowing customers to shop from anywhere while staying on top of sales. Black Friday mobile orders increased from 2022 to 2023, with over 50% of all Black Friday sales occurring on smartphones. This indicates a growing trust in smartphone transactions among shoppers, which is why 2024 will likely reflect this trend.
As a marketer, this means you should ensure your website is optimized for smartphones and tablets. Ensure load speed is quick, navigation is simple, designs are intuitive, and mobile payment options are available. You also have an opportunity to invite your customers to sign up for SMS or push notifications so they can shop deals immediately after they’re rolled out.
While mobile should be a priority, we still recommend investing in multiple channels to capture online shoppers everywhere they’re buying. Our Graph can help you unify data, capture user activity, and view your target audience holistically to optimize ad spend, allocate resources effectively, and improve ROI.
Marketers will start preparing their Black Friday campaigns earlier than ever
With increasing market competition and pressure to accommodate early bird deal seekers, marketers will likely start preparing their discounts, inventories, and promotional materials earlier in the summer.
Data enrichment can help you prepare early Black Friday promos by providing deeper insights into your customers and what they want. Enriching your existing data with behavioral, financial, and demographic information can help you create precise audience segments and personalized content, anticipate customer preferences, optimize channel placement, and tailor your promotions effectively. On average, Experian has 250 behavioral and demographic marketing attributes per individual, which means we can decorate households and people with marketing data to get a full customer profile and fill in any gaps you have on your audience. You can also consider implementing sell-side targeting to help your promotions reach the right people.
If you plan to run early promotions, try not to create deal fatigue among your consumers. Focus on building a few high-quality promotions that will attract your target customers.
BNPL arrangements will become more common for conversion
Given lingering inflation in the U.S., consumers will still be looking for ways to stretch their money this year, and many shoppers may seek out BNPL arrangements. According to Deloitte, 37% of shoppers have used these services historically, and these arrangements have proven to increase conversions by up to 30%.
With so many shoppers wanting the financial convenience of making large purchases without the immediate financial burden, marketers can use data enrichment to identify their target segments most likely to use BNPL and create personalized offers and promotions for them. Your strategy should include high-value offers and messaging that appeal to budget-conscious shoppers and a checkout optimized for BNPL options.
Channel switching will surge
Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales are starting to become channel-agnostic, with consumers browsing online, on mobile apps, in physical stores, and on social media. As such, they expect a unified experience wherever they browse. Any inconsistency can disrupt the purchase journey and deter potential buyers.
As the shopping experience becomes more connected, consumers are moving between channels more frequently, which means integrating data from various touchpoints will be crucial to understanding and predicting customer behavior. Marketers must develop cohesive omnichannel strategies with consistent messaging and promotions across channels. Your campaigns should span multiple channels so customers can engage with your brand in various ways.
We work with major platforms, marketers, and agencies, which means we have existing partnerships across the ecosystem for you to connect with and bring your consumer data to life to meet your needs.
Paid search will drive the most sales
Research from Adobe shows paid search as the top sales driver of Cyber Week 2023, comprising nearly 30% of all online sales. Due to the high-intent customers captured by paid search and the surge in shopping on mobile devices, we expect to see paid search drive much of the Black Friday sales in 2024 — especially as advances in data analytics and AI allow marketers to optimize paid search campaigns more effectively. They can analyze vast amounts of data to refine keywords, ad copy, and bidding strategies for higher ROI and better targeting.
In 2024, it’s essential to prioritize paid search strategies and focus on using relevant, high-performing keywords for your campaigns. You can continuously refine your strategies using AI and data analytics to target high-intent customers. Additionally, integrating insights from customer behavior data will help you create more personalized, impactful ad copy and heighten the effectiveness of your paid search efforts.
Experian can help you win Black Friday 2024
Want your marketing campaigns to stand out and reach your audiences on Black Friday this year? Partner with Experian to create data-driven, targeted, impactful 2024 holiday campaigns.
Our data empowers you to gain valuable insights and optimize your holiday marketing strategies. We can connect online and physical transactions to our Experian household ID for a holistic view of customer behavior, connect ad exposure with foot traffic, or employ control group lift analysis to measure campaign effectiveness. By activating our purchase-based holiday audiences, like last-minute and one-stop holiday shoppers, you can reach the segments most likely to spend with you. Integrating with over 150 channels, we’ll help your campaigns reach your audience wherever they are. You can even utilize our connections to various digital platforms and partners to expand your reach.
With Experian’s measurement offerings, you can make data-driven decisions about your activation strategies. Engage the right audiences and drive exceptional results this holiday season with Experian.
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Q&A with John Fetto, Senior Analyst, Marketing & Research Earlier this year, Experian Marketing Services released our Cross-Device Video Analysis. The analysis has generated such strong and sustained interest from marketers and the media, we wanted to explore the subject further. The following is an exchange with the report’s lead author John Fetto who answers some common questions that we’ve received since the analysis was published. Q: In the Cross-Device Video Analysis, you report that consumers are “cutting the cord” on pay cable and satellite television services. Can you elaborate on this trend? What’s driving it? According to our research at Experian Marketing Services, U.S. consumers are increasingly likely to have high speed Internet at home but no cable or satellite TV subscription. There are two primary consumer trends driving this: 1) Households that never subscribed to a pay TV service are now upgrading to broadband Internet; 2) Households that previously subscribed to both pay TV service and broadband Internet that have since cancelled the cable or satellite TV subscription. While the vast majority of U.S. households pay for either cable or satellite TV, an estimated 15.1 million (or 12.9 percent of households) do not. That’s up from 13.5 million households (11.9 percent) who didn’t pay for TV in 2009. At the same time, the share of broadband households is also rising. Today, 72.7 million homes (61.4 percent) have broadband Internet, up from 65.0 million homes (56.9 percent) in 2009. 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This means that the Internet-connected TV market is critical in predicting the future of the cord-cutting consumer. As existing devices like Apple TV, Chromecast and Roku are upgraded and new devices like Amazon Fire TV are introduced to the market, consumers will have more and more options to consume online video without sacrificing quality or screen size. As a result, more consumers will be reconsidering whether they need to continue paying for TV. Q: What percent of consumers get their television programming from various sources including cable, satellite, online streaming and free over the air TV? Combined, 87.1 percent of U.S. households subscribe to either cable or satellite TV. While Experian Marketing Services doesn’t specifically measure the percent of Americans who watch TV through an over the air feed (OTA) we know that among those who do not subscribe to cable or satellite, the vast majority (77 percent) still watch TV. And while it’s possible that some are viewing TV from a cable or satellite feed away from home, the most likely source of their TV content would be from OTA sources. That means that at least 10 percent of American adults are watching some TV through an OTA feed. In addition, 48 percent of all adults watch online video each week through a variety of devices. Those who don’t pay for TV are 12 percent more likely than those who have cable or satellite TV to watch online video (54 percent vs 48 percent). Q: The cord-cutting trend has many implications for the cable and satellite companies, but what do consumer-facing marketers and advertisers need to know about this trend? The growth in online video viewing creates many opportunities for marketers. Online audiences can be more easily targeted and served up advertising that is more relevant, responsive and measureable. Marketers can also be more confident that their online ad was actually seen, given that viewers are typically unable to skip ads. And while CPMs for online video ads may generally be lower than those of TV, marketers can use that savings to negotiate costs based on clicks or transactions rather than impressions, giving them a better picture into audience interest and insights to inform their budget allocation. Millennials are the most device “agnostic,” with more than one-third saying they don’t mind watching video on a portable device even if it means a smaller screen. That’s more than double the rate of those ages 35 and older. This decentralized viewing can create headaches for marketers who need to start a relationship with Millennials during this stage of their lives when they’re most open to trying out new brands and have yet to settle down. On the plus side, marketers who do manage to reach this audience will find them much more open to advertising than average. In fact, Millennials are more than four times more likely to say that video ads that they view on their cell phone are useful. So while the challenge is big, so is the potential reward. Download the full analysis to learn more about: Cross-device video behaviors to optimize media mix approach The impact of the growing trend in cord-cutters The rising influence of Internet-connected TV How to get more impact from video content
School may be out for the summer, but this is the perfect time for marketers to begin back-to-school planning. Follow these five simple tips and be on your way to back-to-school success. Searchers are actively seeking out ideas around clothes, hairstyles and dorm room décor as they prepare for the school year to start. Leverage sites like Pinterest to promote back to school merchandise and content. Don’t forget to include DIY and customization options as these appeal to today’s students. Don’t underestimate the influence of moms and college students. These consumers are more likely to actively search for the best deals online so test using deal-seeking terms like “free” and “sales” in promotional campaigns. In 2013, Marketers experienced a 35 percent lift in unique clicks when they used the word ‘college’ in the subject line. This year, try targeting specific ages for back-to-school by including terms like “college” and kids” in the subject line. Timing of back-to-school campaigns matters. While August is the key month for back-to-school campaigns, there may be more opportunity to mail additional campaigns for school supplies in July, and clothing and accessories in early September. Don’t forget to personalize! Last year, we saw a 44 percent increase in unique open rates for emails that contained personalization in the subject line. These tactics should be included in a strong back-to-school mailing program. For more information on back-to-school planning, download the 5 Lessons for Back-to-school Marketers in 2014 report.
Experian Marketing Services conducted an analysis into the attitudes, language preferences, spending habits and media behaviors of Hispanic Consumers, some of which were featured in the 2014 Hispanic Market Overview presented by López Negrete Communications. This post highlights findings from that analysis, which focus on Hispanic consumers’ adoption and use of smartphones. Hispanic consumers, who today account for 15 percent of the total U.S. adult population and 22 percent of Millennials, represent an ideal audience for mobile engagement and mobile advertising. While cell phone ownership rates among Hispanic and non-Hispanic adults are equal, Hispanics are more likely to own a smartphone and use it as their primary device to connect to the Internet. According to the latest estimates from Experian Marketing Services, 63 percent of Hispanic adults own a smartphone versus 60 percent of non-Hispanics. That’s up from 52 percent and 51 percent, respectively, since 2012. Among smartphone owners, Hispanics are 17 percent more likely than non-Hispanics to say that they access the Internet more through their phone than through a computer. In fact, 45 percent of Hispanic smartphone owners are mobile-dominant when it comes to going online compared with 38 percent of non-Hispanics. Marketers courting the influential Hispanic consumer must consider this fact and take a mobile-first approach to ensure that online marketing efforts, including everything from email to websites to e-commerce, are designed to engage the customer as effectively on a mobile device as on a computer. Even traditional marketing tactics such as television ads should reflect the growing likelihood that Hispanics have a smartphone either nearby or physically in their hand and are ready to engage. In fact, 37 percent of all Hispanic adults say that they often use their cell phone while watching television compared with 29 percent of non-Hispanics. Among smartphone owners, the share of Hispanics who use their phone while watching television shoots up to 50 percent versus 42 percent of non-Hispanics. Millennial smartphone owners are among the most likely to be splitting their attention between the big and small screen with 61 percent of Hispanic Millennials and 58 percent of non-Hispanic Millennials doing so. Knowing what specific mobile activities Hispanics are engaging in is critical for marketers in identifying the best tactics for reaching them via mobile. The chart below shows that Hispanics engage in most smartphone activities at above average rates, but they are much more likely than non-Hispanics to IM/chat on their phone. As a result they are slightly less likely than non-Hispanics to email from their phone, though the vast majority of Hispanic smartphone owners still use mobile email. Other activities that marketers will find Hispanics engaging in at above average rates include watching videos, using mobile GPS and listening to music. Learn more about how Experian Marketing Services can help your organization more effectively target, reach and engage today’s Hispanic consumer.