Consumers are more confident managing their credit since recession Experian released the Q3 today featuring data that highlights consumer credit card debt has now reached its highest level since Q4 2009. Credit card debt levels reached $650 billion in Q3 2015, the highest it has been since Q4 2009 when it was $667 billion. Experian released the Q3 2015 Experian Market Intelligence Brief today featuring data that highlights consumer credit card debt has now reached its highest level since Q4 2009. Credit card debt levels reached $650 billion in Q3 2015, the highest it has been since Q4 2009 when it was $667 billion. Credit card delinquency rates on outstanding balances 60 or more days past due have decreased 71 percent during the same time period. Combining those indicators with the national unemployment rate dropping 50 percent during the same span illustrates a positive economic outlook on credit card trends among lenders and consumers. “Overall credit card limits have increased 102 percent since Q4 2009 with $82 billion originated in Q3 2015,” said Kelly Kent, vice president of Experian Decision Analytics. “The increase in limits from lenders and the steady climb in credit card debt combined with exceptional delinquency rates signals greater confidence among consumers as they are showing more assurance in managing their credit since the recession. We expect to see credit card debt increase in Q4 based on historical seasonal trends driven by the holiday shopping season especially with the early positive holiday sales as a sign.” The Q3 2015 Experian Market Intelligence Brief report is now available.
Environmentally friendly, lower fuel costs and tax incentives. These are all words that describe alternative-powered vehicles, and serve as reasons why many car shoppers flocked to their local dealerships over the past several years with the intent of “going green” with their next vehicle. However, that trend seems to be fading into the past. As gas prices continue to trend downward, we have seen more and more consumers steer away from hybrids. In fact, according to Experian’s recent Automotive Market Trends and Registrations analysis, when it came to fuel type, hybrids only made up 2.5 percent of the vehicles registered in the third quarter of 2015. This was a 19.2 percent drop from a year ago. Meanwhile, gas-powered vehicles dominated the market at nearly 94 percent. Furthermore, the analysis found that the hybrid car was the vehicle segment that suffered the second largest year-over-year decrease in registrations and its second consecutive quarterly decline, reducing by 19 percent. Conversely, the upper premium sports car (including vehicle models, such as the Porsche 911, Jaguar XJ and BMW 6-Series) saw the highest percentage increase, growing by 45 percent over the same time period. From an overall market perspective, the analysis found that through the third quarter of 2015, new vehicle registrations increased by 5.5 percent from the previous year – a clear sign that the market continues to trend in a positive direction. As previous Experian analyses have indicated, as long as consumers continue to stay on top of their monthly payments, the boom in new vehicle sales will be a positive sign for the industry. The analysis also examined the demographic characteristics of the new vehicle buyer, and found that nearly 50 percent of the new vehicle purchasing power in the U.S. falls to consumers between the ages of 40-69. What’s more, individuals with incomes from $50,000-$100,000 made up 35.5 percent of all new vehicle buyers. Like many things in life, the automotive market is ever changing. At one moment, a segment of vehicles could be selling like hot cakes, and the next moment suffer a steep decline in sales. Gaining insight into these types of trends enables manufacturers and retailers to better understand the fluctuations in the market, and more easily position their businesses for success. And the better positioned they are for success, the more “green” these companies will see.
By all accounts, the national housing market in the US stabilized with a recent report showing year-over-year growth at 6.8 percent for October 2015. However, while interest rates remain near all-time lows, it’s estimated that millions of Americans are unable to take advantage of this opportunity because they are unscoreable using the current credit score model mandated by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (“the GSEs”). Under their current guidelines, the GSEs require mortgage lenders to use an older version of a consumer’s FICO credit score when assessing their credit risk. This model is based on data from 1995 to 2000 and unnecessarily excludes millions of qualified borrowers. For instance, VantageScore 3.0 allows for the scoring of 30–35 million more people that are currently un-scoreable under the legacy credit score model. For example, VantageScore expands the depth and breadth of data collected to allow for more creditworthy consumers while balancing risk. It would allow for more consumers to be scored without lowering credit standards. With the demonstrated ability of non-legacy models to score more consumers, more consumers would also be eligible for the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) program being conducted by the GSEs. In addition to limiting innovation that could help boost consumer access to credit, the continued reliance on a single credit score model by the GSEs presents substantial risks to industry, their regulators, consumers and the economy as a whole. Using newer credit score models like VantageScore 3.0 would provide for greater predictability given the expanded data available. It would reduce the both the operational and credit risk of the GSEs. Congress can help to address this imbalance by passing H.R. 4211, the Credit Score Competition Act of 2015, which was introduced on December 10 by Representatives Ed Royce (R-CA) and Terri Sewell (D-GA). The bill would instruct Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to update their requirements so that lenders might be able to use other credit scoring models that are empirically derived and both demonstrably and statistically sound. Experian encourages lawmakers to pass this bill to help encourage the use of innovative and inclusive credit scoring models, while also helping to reduce exposure to potential operational and credit risk.
Today, we stand at the forefront of a digital revolution that is reshaping the financial services industry. And, against this backdrop, financial institutions are at vastly different levels of maturity; the world’s biggest banks are managing large-scale infrastructure migrations and making significant investments in AI while regional banks and credit unions are putting plans in place for modernization strategies, and fintechs are purpose-built and cloud native. To explore this more, I recently had the privilege of attending the annual Reuters NEXT live event in New York City. The event gathers globally recognized leaders across business, finance, technology, and government to tackle some of today’s most pressing issues. On the World Stage, I joined Del Irani, a talented anchor and broadcast journalist, to discuss the future of lending and the pivotal role of data and AI in building a more inclusive financial system. Improving financial access Our discussion highlighted the lack of access to traditional financial systems, and the impact it has on nearly 100 million people in North America alone. Globally, the problem affects over one billion people. These people, who are credit invisible, unscoreable, or have subprime credit scores, are unable to secure everyday financial products that many of us take for granted. What many don’t realize is, this is not a fringe subset of the population. Most of us, myself included, know someone who has faced the challenges of financial exclusion. Everyday Americans, including young people who are just starting out, new immigrants and people from diverse communities, often lack access to mainstream financial products. We discussed how traditional lending has a limited view of a consumer. Like looking through a keyhole, the lender’s understanding of the person in view is often incomplete and obstructed. However, with expanded data, technology, and advanced analytics, there is an opportunity to better understand the whole person, and as a result have a more inclusive financial system. At Experian, we have a unique ability to connect the power of traditional credit with alternative data, bringing a more holistic understanding of consumers and their behaviors. We are dedicated to leveraging our rich history in data and our expertise in technology to create the future of credit and ultimately bring financial power to everyone. The future of lending After spending two days with over 700 industry leaders from around the world, one thing is abundantly clear: much like the early days of the internet, today, we are at the cutting-edge of a technical revolution. Reflecting on my time at Reuters NEXT, I am particularly excited by the collective commitment to drive innovative, and smarter ways of working. We are only beginning to scratch the surface of how data and technology can transform financial services, and Experian is positioned to play a significant role. As we look to the future, I am excited about the ways we will create new opportunities for businesses and consumers alike.
The advertising ecosystem has seen significant transformation over the past few years, with increased privacy regulation, changes in available signals, and the rise of channels like connected TV and retail media. These changes are impacting the way that consumers interact with brands and how brands understand and continue to deliver relevant messages to consumers with precision. Experian has been helping marketers navigate these changes, and as a result, our marketing data and identity solutions underpin much of today’s advertising industry. We’re committed to empowering marketers and agencies to understand and reach their target audiences, across all channels. Today, we are excited to announce our acquisition of Audigent—a leading data and activation platform in the advertising industry. With Audigent’s combination of first-party publisher data, inventory and deep supply-side distribution relationships, publishers, big and small, can empower marketers to better understand their customers, expand the reach of their target audiences and activate those audiences across the most impactful inventory. I am excited to bring together Audigent’s supply-side network as a natural extension to our existing demand-side capabilities. Audigent’s ability to combine inventory with targeted audiences using first-party, third-party and contextual signals provides the best of all worlds, allowing marketers to deliver campaigns centered on consumer choices, preferences, and behaviors. The addition of Audigent further strengthens our strategy to be the premier independent provider of marketing data and identity, ultimately creating more relevant experiences for consumers. To learn more about Experian and Audigent, visit https://www.experian.com/marketing/ and https://audigent.com/.
When it comes to cybercriminals and threat vectors, we need to expect the unexpected. Experian’s 12th annual Data Breach Industry Forecast highlights several potential trends for 2025, with AI playing a central role. This year has already seen more data breaches and impacted consumers than 2023, indicating that global data breaches are not slowing down. Some things to watch out for next year includes the potential for more internal fraud. As companies train employees on AI, there is a growing risk that some will misuse their knowledge for internal theft and sourcing sensitive information. Another trend may be cyberattackers targeting large data centers, with the growth of generative AI introducing power as a new attack vector. It’s reported that a single ChatGPT query uses significantly more electricity than a standard Google search, making data centers and cloud infrastructure vulnerable, especially in countries with varying security standards. We expect AI-related attacks to dominate the headlines next year and investments in cybersecurity will increase to tackle this emerging threat, as hackers leverage AI for phishing, password cracking, malware, and deepfakes. Jim Steven, Head of Crisis and Data Response Services at Experian Global Data Breach Resolution in the UK, anticipates that global data breaches will persist at their current rate next year. He notes that ransomware attacks are likely to become even more sophisticated with the integration of AI. Additionally, Steven predicts that threat actors will escalate their tactics to achieve greater rewards, and the misuse of consumer data to damage reputations will increase in 2025. To access the complimentary report, click here.