Most people will tell you that they’re extremely proud when their hometown or current city accomplishes something. Hometown pride is why people are diehard fans for the local professional or college sports teams. Knowing that their city shines bright in any light, gives people a good feeling inside. With that said, people in the New York Metro area should have a strong sense of pride in how their businesses are performing. According to Experian’s Q2 Metro Business Pulse analysis, which looks at the top metropolitan areas in four key business credit categories, businesses in the New York area had the lowest average bankruptcy rates in the quarter, at just 0.28 percent. Those in the Nassau, NY; Baton Rouge, La; Honolulu; and Miami areas also have reason to be excited, as their businesses rounded out the top five with the lowest rates in this category. Another group of people who have reason to celebrate are those who live in the San Francisco area. Businesses there paid their bills an average of 3.2 days beyond contracted terms (DBT), more than 2.5 days less than the national average of 5.7 DBT. Businesses in the Omaha, Neb.; New York; Seattle; and Milwaukee metro areas also finished paying their bills faster than the national average. On the flipside, businesses in the Fort Myers, Fla. region took the longest to pay their bills, with businesses paying 18 days beyond contracted terms. The Orlando, Fla. Las Vegas; Miami; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla. metro areas rounded out the bottom five slow payers. The analysis also showed that all metro areas in the top five of business delinquency rates were well below the national average of 9.64 percent. Salt Lake City area businesses had the lowest business delinquency rates in Q2 at 0.92 percent, followed by Boise City, Idaho (1.62 percent); Houston (2.19 percent); San Diego (3.13 percent); and Tucson, Ariz. (3.17 percent). Conversely, businesses in the Miami metro area had the highest delinquency rate of 44.72 percent, followed by Fort Myers, Fla.; Orlando, Fla.; Cincinnati; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla. To view the full analysis, visit our Metro Business Pulse website. For more information on this report and other business-related insights, visit www.Experian.com/b2b.
An analysis of trends shows that mortgage originations have increased by 10 percent from a year ago. More important, a look at the most recent completed quarter shows a 29 percent increase in home purchases from the prior quarter and a decrease in the number of refinances, suggesting a sustained recovery is beginning to come from purchases. These findings and others were part of the quarterly analysis from Experian that examines real-estate trends. The key statistic in the real-estate market is the change in the ratios of refinances versus home purchases, with purchases making up a much greater proportion of the total origination volume. The data from Experian’s IntelliView product indicates that despite a 7 percent decrease from the previous quarter in refinancing activity, home purchases grew by 20 percent year over year and 29 percent quarter over quarter, and this is where we can begin to see some of the real-estate recovery taking place.” The analysis of existing and new home sales also points to the turnaround in the real-estate market. The data shows a reduction in sales of distressed homes and an increase in conventional sales. Since last year, the sales of distressed properties from short sales and foreclosures have been reduced from 25 percent to just 15 percent, while conventional existing home sales grew by 32 percent year over year, nearly double the overall growth rate of existing home sales. Combine this with strong growth year over year from new home sales at 38 percent, and it is easy to see that the recovery could be coming from purchases. Looking at the top metropolitan areas in terms of price appreciation and origination volume, Las Vegas, Nev.; Phoenix, Ariz.; and Atlanta, Ga., were three cities ranked in the top five for both categories. They were followed by Miami and Tampa, Fla., both in the top five for originations but not for prices, even though they had respectable double-digit price percentage increases. San Francisco and Los Angeles, Calif., also saw top-five price gains, but they were not in the top five for originations, despite their strong performance. This indicates that the areas showing the greatest recovery are those that were hardest hit during the downturn, such as Florida, Nevada, Arizona and California. Further evidence of the improving real-estate market is the significant jump in home-equity lines of credit (HELOC) in the second quarter of FY 2013 — the first major jump of this kind since the recession. Growing slowly but consistently since 2010, it increased about 10 percent last year but exploded this quarter with a more than 30 percent increase in the quarter and year over year. This data demonstrates an improved position for many consumers who now have equity in their homes due to market price increases. We continue to see a very conservative lending approach, with nearly 90 percent of HELOCs still coming from super-prime and prime consumers. However, there is an opportunity for more people to actually participate in getting a home-equity line because of home price improvements. This trend is likely to continue as we see more homeowners move into a better equity position. The West, Midwest, South Central, South Atlantic and Northeast regions of the United States all have shown strong year-over-year growth in HELOCs, with the West being the standout among the group. This is attributed to the price appreciation coming from cities like San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix and Las Vegas. The Northeast also consistently leads in HELOCs nationwide regardless of how the real-estate market is performing in that area of the country. A look at mortgage delinquencies is the final piece of the data puzzle supporting a real-estate recovery. In this area, Experian® continues to see a downward trend across all the different time segments. The analysis showed that short-term delinquencies — 30 to 59 days past due (DPD) — dropped to 1.51 percent for the quarter and have been less than 2 percent for more than a year and a half. Midrange delinquencies — 60 to 89 DPD — saw a very slight 1 percent increase for the quarter, but they have been less than 1 percent for more than a year and a half as well. Long-term delinquencies — 90 to 180 DPD — were down 1.32 percent for the quarter. This impressive downward trend is the result of bad loans from the first real-estate bubble being removed and replaced with postrecession conservative lending. The data for this insight and analysis was provided by Experian’s IntelliViewSM product. IntelliView data is sourced from the information that supports the Experian–Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports and is easily accessed through an intuitive, online graphical user interface, which enables financial professionals to extract key findings from the data and integrate them into their business strategies. This unique data asset does this by delivering market intelligence on consumer credit behavior within specific lending categories and geographic regions.
An Experian analysis of bankcard trends from Q2 2013 showed a 21 percent year-over-year increase in bankcard origination volumes, equating to $12 billion increase in new bankcard limits issued. Other insights offered by Experian, the leading global information services company, include record lows in early-stage bankcard delinquencies. Bankcard originations continue to track with the recovery in terms of steady growth. While we may never hit the volumes we saw in 2007, the consistent growth rates that we are currently seeing in bankcard originations signal that the market is coming back online. In looking at bankcard originations by VantageScore®, the year-over-year growth in originations has largely been driven by the prime and near-prime segments, comprising almost the entire $12 billion increase in new credit limit dollars originated. This trend points to the fact that prime and near-prime consumers are accepting the offers being extended to them and that lenders are continuing to lend a little deeper to drive bankcard growth. Equally important is that prime and near-prime bankcard utilization rates are not as high as they were a year ago. This is a positive trend, because it shows that despite an increase in new bankcard users, consumers are managing their credit wisely. The analysis of bankcard delinquency and overall risk exposure also continues to support the steady recovery of the bankcard market. Charge-off rates are significantly down, to an annualized rate of 3.9 percent, with early-stage delinquencies coming in at historic lows of 0.9 percent of balances for the quarter. Additionally, total risk exposure has dropped $3 billion from the previous quarter in 2013. These trends are a positive sign for overall economic recovery and evidence that the post-recession growth in the bankcard market is not coming at the expense of increased delinquencies. The data for this insight and analysis was provided by Experian's IntelliView (SM) product. IntelliView data is sourced from the information that supports the Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports and is easily accessed through an intuitive, online graphical user interface, which enables financial professionals to extract key findings from the data and integrate them into their business strategies. This unique data asset does this by delivering market intelligence on consumer credit behavior within specific lending categories and geographic regions.
Today, we stand at the forefront of a digital revolution that is reshaping the financial services industry. And, against this backdrop, financial institutions are at vastly different levels of maturity; the world’s biggest banks are managing large-scale infrastructure migrations and making significant investments in AI while regional banks and credit unions are putting plans in place for modernization strategies, and fintechs are purpose-built and cloud native. To explore this more, I recently had the privilege of attending the annual Reuters NEXT live event in New York City. The event gathers globally recognized leaders across business, finance, technology, and government to tackle some of today’s most pressing issues. On the World Stage, I joined Del Irani, a talented anchor and broadcast journalist, to discuss the future of lending and the pivotal role of data and AI in building a more inclusive financial system. Improving financial access Our discussion highlighted the lack of access to traditional financial systems, and the impact it has on nearly 100 million people in North America alone. Globally, the problem affects over one billion people. These people, who are credit invisible, unscoreable, or have subprime credit scores, are unable to secure everyday financial products that many of us take for granted. What many don’t realize is, this is not a fringe subset of the population. Most of us, myself included, know someone who has faced the challenges of financial exclusion. Everyday Americans, including young people who are just starting out, new immigrants and people from diverse communities, often lack access to mainstream financial products. We discussed how traditional lending has a limited view of a consumer. Like looking through a keyhole, the lender’s understanding of the person in view is often incomplete and obstructed. However, with expanded data, technology, and advanced analytics, there is an opportunity to better understand the whole person, and as a result have a more inclusive financial system. At Experian, we have a unique ability to connect the power of traditional credit with alternative data, bringing a more holistic understanding of consumers and their behaviors. We are dedicated to leveraging our rich history in data and our expertise in technology to create the future of credit and ultimately bring financial power to everyone. The future of lending After spending two days with over 700 industry leaders from around the world, one thing is abundantly clear: much like the early days of the internet, today, we are at the cutting-edge of a technical revolution. Reflecting on my time at Reuters NEXT, I am particularly excited by the collective commitment to drive innovative, and smarter ways of working. We are only beginning to scratch the surface of how data and technology can transform financial services, and Experian is positioned to play a significant role. As we look to the future, I am excited about the ways we will create new opportunities for businesses and consumers alike.
The advertising ecosystem has seen significant transformation over the past few years, with increased privacy regulation, changes in available signals, and the rise of channels like connected TV and retail media. These changes are impacting the way that consumers interact with brands and how brands understand and continue to deliver relevant messages to consumers with precision. Experian has been helping marketers navigate these changes, and as a result, our marketing data and identity solutions underpin much of today’s advertising industry. We’re committed to empowering marketers and agencies to understand and reach their target audiences, across all channels. Today, we are excited to announce our acquisition of Audigent—a leading data and activation platform in the advertising industry. With Audigent’s combination of first-party publisher data, inventory and deep supply-side distribution relationships, publishers, big and small, can empower marketers to better understand their customers, expand the reach of their target audiences and activate those audiences across the most impactful inventory. I am excited to bring together Audigent’s supply-side network as a natural extension to our existing demand-side capabilities. Audigent’s ability to combine inventory with targeted audiences using first-party, third-party and contextual signals provides the best of all worlds, allowing marketers to deliver campaigns centered on consumer choices, preferences, and behaviors. The addition of Audigent further strengthens our strategy to be the premier independent provider of marketing data and identity, ultimately creating more relevant experiences for consumers. To learn more about Experian and Audigent, visit https://www.experian.com/marketing/ and https://audigent.com/.
When it comes to cybercriminals and threat vectors, we need to expect the unexpected. Experian’s 12th annual Data Breach Industry Forecast highlights several potential trends for 2025, with AI playing a central role. This year has already seen more data breaches and impacted consumers than 2023, indicating that global data breaches are not slowing down. Some things to watch out for next year includes the potential for more internal fraud. As companies train employees on AI, there is a growing risk that some will misuse their knowledge for internal theft and sourcing sensitive information. Another trend may be cyberattackers targeting large data centers, with the growth of generative AI introducing power as a new attack vector. It’s reported that a single ChatGPT query uses significantly more electricity than a standard Google search, making data centers and cloud infrastructure vulnerable, especially in countries with varying security standards. We expect AI-related attacks to dominate the headlines next year and investments in cybersecurity will increase to tackle this emerging threat, as hackers leverage AI for phishing, password cracking, malware, and deepfakes. Jim Steven, Head of Crisis and Data Response Services at Experian Global Data Breach Resolution in the UK, anticipates that global data breaches will persist at their current rate next year. He notes that ransomware attacks are likely to become even more sophisticated with the integration of AI. Additionally, Steven predicts that threat actors will escalate their tactics to achieve greater rewards, and the misuse of consumer data to damage reputations will increase in 2025. To access the complimentary report, click here.