As more Americans emerge from the economic depths of the recession, they’re reminded by one significant fact: not all consumers reduced their debt burdens during 2011. Super-prime VantageScore® consumers — those with scores of 901 to 990 — actually increased debt by $100 billion from Q4 of 2010, notably in new mortgage, bankcard and auto debt. Mortgage lending activity quickens At the close of 2011, automotive loans and bankcard originations showed the biggest upticks. While new mortgage lending remained weak, the origination volumes of $407 billion in Q4 represent both an increase from the previous three quarters in the year and a heavy weighting toward refinance activity. In fact: More than 75 percent of dollars originated for single-family home purchases in Q4 of 2011 were refinance volumes. As interest rates remain low during the first half of 2012, additional refinancing activity is expected, providing a silver lining to the persistently slow activity in this sector. The latest wave of refinance activity indicates that many homeowners are still striving to stay in their homes and smooth out their cash flow through refinancing. Housing will continue to struggle through 2012 Mortgage-lending volumes remain at extremely low levels, despite record low interest rates. A new round of declining home prices in key markets in Q4 2011 compounded housing sector troubles. The national home price index fell by 4 percent from a year ago, with many major markets seeing further price declines in excess of 10 percent from a year earlier. Through all of this, mortgage delinquency exposure remains high, but 30-plus DPD balances have decreased for 10 consecutive quarters, falling to $565 billion in Q4 of 2011. Regionally, mortgage delinquencies represent 6 percent to 8 percent of all mortgage debt, except in California and Florida, which were especially hard hit by the credit crunch and recession and continue to see such delinquencies representing at least 10 percent of mortgage loan outstanding balances. Further economic gains anticipated Until housing rebounds, the nation’s unemployment rate is expected to stay relatively flat from its March 2012 level of 8.2 percent. The increase in gross domestic product will continue to contribute to increased private-sector hiring, which will slowly have a notable effect on the overall number.
To gear up for the second full day of Vision 2012, we chat with Kerry Williams, Experian group president, to discuss how clients can achieve growth using three key strategies. Check out the video to see his recommendations:
The first day of Vision 2012 covered numerous topics and offered attendees many new industry insights. In this episode of Experian TV, we catch up with Steve Wagner, president, consumer information services, to discuss universe expansion and strategies to find new consumers, and Tony Hadley, senior vice president, government affairs, to review consumer financial literacy and the CFPB. We also sit down with Andy Sheehan, senior vice president of marketing, to discuss this year’s Vision theme: growth.
Today, we stand at the forefront of a digital revolution that is reshaping the financial services industry. And, against this backdrop, financial institutions are at vastly different levels of maturity; the world’s biggest banks are managing large-scale infrastructure migrations and making significant investments in AI while regional banks and credit unions are putting plans in place for modernization strategies, and fintechs are purpose-built and cloud native. To explore this more, I recently had the privilege of attending the annual Reuters NEXT live event in New York City. The event gathers globally recognized leaders across business, finance, technology, and government to tackle some of today’s most pressing issues. On the World Stage, I joined Del Irani, a talented anchor and broadcast journalist, to discuss the future of lending and the pivotal role of data and AI in building a more inclusive financial system. Improving financial access Our discussion highlighted the lack of access to traditional financial systems, and the impact it has on nearly 100 million people in North America alone. Globally, the problem affects over one billion people. These people, who are credit invisible, unscoreable, or have subprime credit scores, are unable to secure everyday financial products that many of us take for granted. What many don’t realize is, this is not a fringe subset of the population. Most of us, myself included, know someone who has faced the challenges of financial exclusion. Everyday Americans, including young people who are just starting out, new immigrants and people from diverse communities, often lack access to mainstream financial products. We discussed how traditional lending has a limited view of a consumer. Like looking through a keyhole, the lender’s understanding of the person in view is often incomplete and obstructed. However, with expanded data, technology, and advanced analytics, there is an opportunity to better understand the whole person, and as a result have a more inclusive financial system. At Experian, we have a unique ability to connect the power of traditional credit with alternative data, bringing a more holistic understanding of consumers and their behaviors. We are dedicated to leveraging our rich history in data and our expertise in technology to create the future of credit and ultimately bring financial power to everyone. The future of lending After spending two days with over 700 industry leaders from around the world, one thing is abundantly clear: much like the early days of the internet, today, we are at the cutting-edge of a technical revolution. Reflecting on my time at Reuters NEXT, I am particularly excited by the collective commitment to drive innovative, and smarter ways of working. We are only beginning to scratch the surface of how data and technology can transform financial services, and Experian is positioned to play a significant role. As we look to the future, I am excited about the ways we will create new opportunities for businesses and consumers alike.
The advertising ecosystem has seen significant transformation over the past few years, with increased privacy regulation, changes in available signals, and the rise of channels like connected TV and retail media. These changes are impacting the way that consumers interact with brands and how brands understand and continue to deliver relevant messages to consumers with precision. Experian has been helping marketers navigate these changes, and as a result, our marketing data and identity solutions underpin much of today’s advertising industry. We’re committed to empowering marketers and agencies to understand and reach their target audiences, across all channels. Today, we are excited to announce our acquisition of Audigent—a leading data and activation platform in the advertising industry. With Audigent’s combination of first-party publisher data, inventory and deep supply-side distribution relationships, publishers, big and small, can empower marketers to better understand their customers, expand the reach of their target audiences and activate those audiences across the most impactful inventory. I am excited to bring together Audigent’s supply-side network as a natural extension to our existing demand-side capabilities. Audigent’s ability to combine inventory with targeted audiences using first-party, third-party and contextual signals provides the best of all worlds, allowing marketers to deliver campaigns centered on consumer choices, preferences, and behaviors. The addition of Audigent further strengthens our strategy to be the premier independent provider of marketing data and identity, ultimately creating more relevant experiences for consumers. To learn more about Experian and Audigent, visit https://www.experian.com/marketing/ and https://audigent.com/.
When it comes to cybercriminals and threat vectors, we need to expect the unexpected. Experian’s 12th annual Data Breach Industry Forecast highlights several potential trends for 2025, with AI playing a central role. This year has already seen more data breaches and impacted consumers than 2023, indicating that global data breaches are not slowing down. Some things to watch out for next year includes the potential for more internal fraud. As companies train employees on AI, there is a growing risk that some will misuse their knowledge for internal theft and sourcing sensitive information. Another trend may be cyberattackers targeting large data centers, with the growth of generative AI introducing power as a new attack vector. It’s reported that a single ChatGPT query uses significantly more electricity than a standard Google search, making data centers and cloud infrastructure vulnerable, especially in countries with varying security standards. We expect AI-related attacks to dominate the headlines next year and investments in cybersecurity will increase to tackle this emerging threat, as hackers leverage AI for phishing, password cracking, malware, and deepfakes. Jim Steven, Head of Crisis and Data Response Services at Experian Global Data Breach Resolution in the UK, anticipates that global data breaches will persist at their current rate next year. He notes that ransomware attacks are likely to become even more sophisticated with the integration of AI. Additionally, Steven predicts that threat actors will escalate their tactics to achieve greater rewards, and the misuse of consumer data to damage reputations will increase in 2025. To access the complimentary report, click here.