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Consumers are more confident managing their credit since recession Experian released the Q3 today featuring data that highlights consumer credit card debt has now reached its highest level since Q4 2009. Credit card debt levels reached $650 billion in Q3 2015, the highest it has been since Q4 2009 when it was $667 billion. Experian released the Q3 2015 Experian Market Intelligence Brief today featuring data that highlights consumer credit card debt has now reached its highest level since Q4 2009. Credit card debt levels reached $650 billion in Q3 2015, the highest it has been since Q4 2009 when it was $667 billion. Credit card delinquency rates on outstanding balances 60 or more days past due have decreased 71 percent during the same time period. Combining those indicators with the national unemployment rate dropping 50 percent during the same span illustrates a positive economic outlook on credit card trends among lenders and consumers. “Overall credit card limits have increased 102 percent since Q4 2009 with $82 billion originated in Q3 2015,” said Kelly Kent, vice president of Experian Decision Analytics. “The increase in limits from lenders and the steady climb in credit card debt combined with exceptional delinquency rates signals greater confidence among consumers as they are showing more assurance in managing their credit since the recession. We expect to see credit card debt increase in Q4 based on historical seasonal trends driven by the holiday shopping season especially with the early positive holiday sales as a sign.” The Q3 2015 Experian Market Intelligence Brief report is now available.
Environmentally friendly, lower fuel costs and tax incentives. These are all words that describe alternative-powered vehicles, and serve as reasons why many car shoppers flocked to their local dealerships over the past several years with the intent of “going green” with their next vehicle. However, that trend seems to be fading into the past. As gas prices continue to trend downward, we have seen more and more consumers steer away from hybrids. In fact, according to Experian’s recent Automotive Market Trends and Registrations analysis, when it came to fuel type, hybrids only made up 2.5 percent of the vehicles registered in the third quarter of 2015. This was a 19.2 percent drop from a year ago. Meanwhile, gas-powered vehicles dominated the market at nearly 94 percent. Furthermore, the analysis found that the hybrid car was the vehicle segment that suffered the second largest year-over-year decrease in registrations and its second consecutive quarterly decline, reducing by 19 percent. Conversely, the upper premium sports car (including vehicle models, such as the Porsche 911, Jaguar XJ and BMW 6-Series) saw the highest percentage increase, growing by 45 percent over the same time period. From an overall market perspective, the analysis found that through the third quarter of 2015, new vehicle registrations increased by 5.5 percent from the previous year – a clear sign that the market continues to trend in a positive direction. As previous Experian analyses have indicated, as long as consumers continue to stay on top of their monthly payments, the boom in new vehicle sales will be a positive sign for the industry. The analysis also examined the demographic characteristics of the new vehicle buyer, and found that nearly 50 percent of the new vehicle purchasing power in the U.S. falls to consumers between the ages of 40-69. What’s more, individuals with incomes from $50,000-$100,000 made up 35.5 percent of all new vehicle buyers. Like many things in life, the automotive market is ever changing. At one moment, a segment of vehicles could be selling like hot cakes, and the next moment suffer a steep decline in sales. Gaining insight into these types of trends enables manufacturers and retailers to better understand the fluctuations in the market, and more easily position their businesses for success. And the better positioned they are for success, the more “green” these companies will see.
By all accounts, the national housing market in the US stabilized with a recent report showing year-over-year growth at 6.8 percent for October 2015. However, while interest rates remain near all-time lows, it’s estimated that millions of Americans are unable to take advantage of this opportunity because they are unscoreable using the current credit score model mandated by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (“the GSEs”). Under their current guidelines, the GSEs require mortgage lenders to use an older version of a consumer’s FICO credit score when assessing their credit risk. This model is based on data from 1995 to 2000 and unnecessarily excludes millions of qualified borrowers. For instance, VantageScore 3.0 allows for the scoring of 30–35 million more people that are currently un-scoreable under the legacy credit score model. For example, VantageScore expands the depth and breadth of data collected to allow for more creditworthy consumers while balancing risk. It would allow for more consumers to be scored without lowering credit standards. With the demonstrated ability of non-legacy models to score more consumers, more consumers would also be eligible for the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) program being conducted by the GSEs. In addition to limiting innovation that could help boost consumer access to credit, the continued reliance on a single credit score model by the GSEs presents substantial risks to industry, their regulators, consumers and the economy as a whole. Using newer credit score models like VantageScore 3.0 would provide for greater predictability given the expanded data available. It would reduce the both the operational and credit risk of the GSEs. Congress can help to address this imbalance by passing H.R. 4211, the Credit Score Competition Act of 2015, which was introduced on December 10 by Representatives Ed Royce (R-CA) and Terri Sewell (D-GA). The bill would instruct Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to update their requirements so that lenders might be able to use other credit scoring models that are empirically derived and both demonstrably and statistically sound. Experian encourages lawmakers to pass this bill to help encourage the use of innovative and inclusive credit scoring models, while also helping to reduce exposure to potential operational and credit risk.
Today, we stand at the forefront of a digital revolution that is reshaping the financial services industry. And, against this backdrop, financial institutions are at vastly different levels of maturity; the world’s biggest banks are managing large-scale infrastructure migrations and making significant investments in AI while regional banks and credit unions are putting plans in place for modernization strategies, and fintechs are purpose-built and cloud native. To explore this more, I recently had the privilege of attending the annual Reuters NEXT live event in New York City. The event gathers globally recognized leaders across business, finance, technology, and government to tackle some of today’s most pressing issues. On the World Stage, I joined Del Irani, a talented anchor and broadcast journalist, to discuss the future of lending and the pivotal role of data and AI in building a more inclusive financial system. Improving financial access Our discussion highlighted the lack of access to traditional financial systems, and the impact it has on nearly 100 million people in North America alone. Globally, the problem affects over one billion people. These people, who are credit invisible, unscoreable, or have subprime credit scores, are unable to secure everyday financial products that many of us take for granted. What many don’t realize is, this is not a fringe subset of the population. Most of us, myself included, know someone who has faced the challenges of financial exclusion. Everyday Americans, including young people who are just starting out, new immigrants and people from diverse communities, often lack access to mainstream financial products. We discussed how traditional lending has a limited view of a consumer. Like looking through a keyhole, the lender’s understanding of the person in view is often incomplete and obstructed. However, with expanded data, technology, and advanced analytics, there is an opportunity to better understand the whole person, and as a result have a more inclusive financial system. At Experian, we have a unique ability to connect the power of traditional credit with alternative data, bringing a more holistic understanding of consumers and their behaviors. We are dedicated to leveraging our rich history in data and our expertise in technology to create the future of credit and ultimately bring financial power to everyone. The future of lending After spending two days with over 700 industry leaders from around the world, one thing is abundantly clear: much like the early days of the internet, today, we are at the cutting-edge of a technical revolution. Reflecting on my time at Reuters NEXT, I am particularly excited by the collective commitment to drive innovative, and smarter ways of working. We are only beginning to scratch the surface of how data and technology can transform financial services, and Experian is positioned to play a significant role. As we look to the future, I am excited about the ways we will create new opportunities for businesses and consumers alike.
We believe that financial literacy leads to empowerment. That is why Experian supports initiatives and partners with community organizations to deliver financial education. We also develop products and services that give more control to consumers over their credit profile and financial health. As part of advancing our mission of Financial Power to All®, we are proud to announce we are helping more than 5,000 Hispanic individuals nationwide by relieving $10 million dollars of consumer debt. To provide families with this boost, we joined forces with ForgiveCo, a Public Benefit Corporation (PBC), to administer the acquisition and cancellation of qualifying consumer debt for the selected recipients. Beneficiaries will also receive a one-year premium Experian membership for free that offers access to their Experian credit report in English and Spanish[i], FICO® Score[ii], bilingual educational content, and other financial resources. We hope this effort helps raise awareness of the importance of financial literacy for everyone, and that Experian has resources to help individuals reach their financial dreams. To amplify the message, we collaborated with multi-platinum, award-winning singer and songwriter Prince Royce and you can see his video here. In fact, we have been making a concerted effort the last several years to evolve our educational resources and products to better support all underserved communities. Some of our other activities include the creation of the B.A.L.L. for Life initiative that connects African American and Hispanic youth with financial education, supporting scholarships for Asian Americans through the Ascend organization, providing custom resources for Out & Equal and Born This Way Foundation for the LGBTQ+ community, supporting the NextGen Innovation Lab for Disability:IN, and sponsoring credit counseling for the military community with Operation HOPE. For resources in Spanish, Experian offers a credit e-book and consumers can access a full suite of articles at the Ask Experian blog here. [i] Only Experian credit reports are available in Spanish. All other services associated with an Experian membership are available in English only. English fluency is required for full access to Experian’s products. [ii] Credit score calculated based on FICO® Score 8 model. Your lender or insurer may use a different FICO® Score than FICO® Score 8, or another type of credit score altogether. Learn more.
Amid some of the financial challenges that underserved communities experience, members across the financial services community remain committed to championing initiatives and programs that drive greater financial inclusion. In fact, collaboration has led to the inclusion of non-debt related payment information on consumers’ credit profiles, as well as digital services that make it easier to manage money. These efforts have helped to broaden access to fair and affordable financial resources for more individuals. While significant progress has been made, there is still more work to do. However, some of the misconceptions and myths about the financial services community are hindering further advancement. Debunking these myths will accelerate progress by building trust between the financial services community and consumers. Person withdrawing money from ATM contactless Myth #1: “Financial institutions have no interest in underserved consumers or credit invisibles.” The truth is, banks and credit unions want to say “yes” to more prospective borrowers, including individuals and families from underserved communities. Beyond being the right thing to do, it’s an opportunity to potentially build lifelong relationships with a relatively untapped market. A show of good faith to communities who have largely been ignored by the financial system could lead to customer loyalty that may extend to their family and friends. That’s why participants across the financial ecosystem have been proponents of including expanded data sources—such as on-time telecom, utility and video streaming service payments—on to consumer credit reports, as well as exploring other Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA)-regulated data sources, including payment data on short-term small dollar loans and expanded public records data. Making this data more accessible to lenders provides a more comprehensive view of a consumer’s ability and willingness to repay outstanding debt—an actionable solution to extending credit to consumers without lenders taking on additional risk. Myth #2: “There is a lack of trustworthy financial education resources.” The financial services community and affiliated organizations recognize that empowering people with financial knowledge and skillset are critical to consumers’ financial success. In fact, banks and credit unions are partnering with nonprofits and non-governmental organizations to better understand the unique challenges and opportunities within specific communities and provide relevant tools and resources. For example, Experian’s B.A.L.L. for Life (Be A Legacy Leader) program, launched in partnership with the National Urban League, serves as a catalyst for engaging with Black communities and low-income youth through live events and digital financial education. Subject matter experts, professional athletes, celebrities, and other influencers share their experiences and expertise, covering topics such as banking, credit, financial management and investing. In addition, to help people improve their financial management, Experian partners with the National Foundation for Credit Counseling (NFCC). The NFCC connects consumers with certified financial counselors to help them address various pain points, including debt management, homeownership, student loans or small business cash flow issues. Myth #3: “Underserved communities have few opportunities to build credit and enter the mainstream financial system.” People from underserved communities, as well as younger consumers and recent immigrants are often excluded from the mainstream financial system because they lack an extensive credit history. Historically, it’s created a vicious cycle; in order to get credit, you have to have credit. Fortunately, there has been a sea change in innovative solutions to address the specific needs of these populations. These include new credit scoring models and microfinancing which provide financial services to individuals who may have been excluded from traditional banking systems. In addition, by incorporating expanded data sources, such as telecom, utility and residential rental payments onto credit reports, lenders have more visibility into consumers who may have been excluded by traditional credit scoring methods.These programs help individuals and families from underserved communities establish and build a credit history that could enable loans, or the ability to rent an apartment or open their dream business. An example is Experian Boost®, a free feature that allows Experian members to contribute their history of making utility, cellphone, insurance, residential rent and video streaming service payments directly into their Experian credit profile. By incorporating nontraditional credit data like paying utility bills on time, online banking transactions, rental payments and verified income data, more people can establish a credit profile that can potentially qualify them for a loan. More Inclusion, Fewer Myths It’s encouraging that community organizations and banks are beginning to see the economic and social benefits of aligning on financial literacy and inclusion. As more initiatives come online, underserved populations will be able to establish a better financial foundation. Then, we can declare the myths to be history.