Test Business Information Page

Loading…
Winter 2024 Beyond the Trends Report Highlights

The Beyond the Trends report highlights indicators which offer insights on labor, prices, commercial credit and economic conditions.

Published: Feb 14, 2024 by Gary Stockton

Insights from the 01-30-24 Commercial Pulse Report – Is the Retail Boom Hiding a Bigger Problem?

Retail sales reached a 4-year high of over $615B in December 2023 with yearly retail sales growing 4.6%. At the same time, lenders are tightening credit and businesses within the retail sector are showing signs of stress with higher late-stage delinquency rates and falling commercial credit scores. We see retailers seeking commercial credit less often, new originations slowing and lower lines over the past several months. As retail sales continue to rise so does the proportion of online retail sales. Online sales peaked during the COVID-19 pandemic and fell slightly once the lockdowns were lifted. Online retail sales remain approximately 56% higher than pre-pandemic levels and are trending up and may soon exceed 2020 levels. Growth in online retail sales has led to growth in retail returns. Retail returns peaked in 2022 at over $800MM and over 16% of total retail sales. Prior to 2021, retail returns as a percentage of retail sales averaged 8.9%, since 2021 that rate has grown to 14.6%. As returns increase so do fraudulent returns. Retailers have implemented strategies and solutions to address retail returns which resulted in a decrease in return dollars between 2022 and 2023 yet the percentage of returns that were fraudulent increased from 10.2% to 13.7% or over $100B. Increases in both legitimate and fraudulent returns are prompting retailers to identity solutions and operational strategies to slow growth across all returns. What I am watching: The U.S. economy expanded 3.3% in Q4 2023, and 2023 real GDP increased 2.5% over 2022. Strong consumer spending fueled the economy. Multiple sources are expecting The Federal Reserve to cut interest rates up to six times in 2024 with the rate cuts beginning in Q2 2024 and continuing into 2025. Lower interest rates likely means that consumer spending will continue at an elevated rate. As spending continues to increase, specifically in the retail sector, the need for commercial credit could continue to slow as cash-flows satisfy operational capital requirements. Cash on hand should begin to satisfy outstanding delinquencies, improving commercial credit scores resulting in improved access to commercial credit.

Published: Jan 30, 2024 by Marsha Silverman

Insights from the 01-16-24 Commercial Pulse Report – Interest rate changes coming; commercial credit demand continues

Small business owners’ optimism remains low due to concerns about the economy and credit conditions. According to the NFIB survey, business owners do not expect current business conditions to improve in the coming months and report that financing is their top business problem. Stringent credit underwriting policies are creating an environment where owners’ current borrowing needsare not met. According to the Federal Reserve’s SLOOS report, many lenders were loosening credit policies in mid-2022, making credit readily available to small business owners. As inflation and interest rates began to rise, commercial credit delinquencies began to increase at a rapid pace and lenders tightened credit underwriting criteria to mitigate accelerated risk. It appears that efforts have worked. Across most commercial credit financial products, the increase in delinquency rates slowed over the past few months. The loans originated under the tighter underwriting is proving to be lower risk. At the same time, account closures have increased suggesting that high risk default accounts are being removed from lenders portfolio’s thus leveling late-stage delinquency curves. As observed in the commercial credit cards space, late-stage delinquencies are leveling out. Lenders continue to issue commercial cards to lower-risk borrowers and while the average loan/line amount for all other financial products has been decreasing month over month, commercial card limits have increased. Monthly lower risk commercial card originations coupled with monthly high risk commercial card account closures is in part slowing and leveling late-stage delinquency rates in the commercial credit market. What I am watching The commercial credit market could shift in 2024. As reported in the SLOOS survey, while lenders are still tightening credit, fewer of them tightened in Q4 2023. If the economy can achieve a “soft-landing” rather than go into recession, lenders will be even more likely to loosen credit standards. The Federal Reserve is expected to start reducing interest rates in 2024, thereby making borrowingmore affordable. According to the December NFIB survey, business owners are planning capital outlays, increases in inventory, increases in hiring in the coming months but require commercial credit to do so. These business expansions will rely on the availability of credit.

Published: Jan 16, 2024 by Marsha Silverman

Expand Safely with International Credit Reports

Watch our Sip and Solve talk about assessing international credit risk and expanding internationally safely while minimizing risk.

Published: Jan 10, 2024 by Kyle Matthies

Insights from the 12-19-23 Commercial Pulse Report – Inflation Rates Down; All Eyes on Holiday Spending

The November jobs report paints a picture of a robust yet nuanced job market. While job gains and a low unemployment rate inspire optimism for a soft-landing scenario, the cooling employment growth reflects the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes on consumer and business activities. Labor shortages are gradually easing, but challenges persist, particularly in the service sector. Wage growth is slowing down, offering relief from recent highs and contributing to the mitigation of inflationary pressures. Moreover, a new layer of complexity emerges with a rise in layoffs, totaling over 16 million in the first 10 months of the year, representing a 12% increase from 2022. Although layoffs are expected to rise further as the job market normalizes, projections indicate that the numbers will stay "well within the norm." Examining specific sectors reveals unique dynamics. The health care industry, propelled by long-term structural factors, continues to add jobs, providing stability to the overall economy. Conversely, the retail trade sector experiences job losses despite strong sales, signaling the industry’s transition to online channels and COVID-related changes in retail behavior. Navigating this intricatelandscape requires keen insight into sector-specific trends and an awareness of the evolving dynamics shaping the broader economic trajectory. What I am watching: Following the positive November inflation and labor market reports, the Federal Reserve did not change interest rates at their December meeting. After the aggressive interest rate increases since March 2022, this is now the third consecutive meeting with no change, but the Fed indicated that there will be multiple rate cuts beginning in 2024 and beyond. One key to the economy will be how consumers approach holiday spending. With consumer confidence low and news of upcoming layoffs, people may tighten their belts, thereby slowing the economy. Download Report Download the latest version of the Commercial Pulse Report here. Better yet, subscribe so you'll get it in your inbox every time it releases, or once a month as you choose.

Published: Dec 19, 2023 by Marsha Silverman

Insights from the 12-05-23 Commercial Pulse Report – Automotive Industry Data Roundup

As new car production is finally nearing pre-pandemic levels, supply is catching up to demand. For many potential new car buyers that held off because of the tremendous mark-up on new and usedcars during the pandemic, the beginning trend of new car incentives and discounts is welcoming. However, the increase in car loan interest rates are eating up any incentives being offered, and those consumers who have patiently waited are actually worse off now than if they had purchased a car during the past couple of years. Many consumers did purchase cars during the pandemic, driven by necessity. During the pandemic, jobs were lost due to business shuts downs, and many were forced to seek new job opportunities. As remote work became the new normal and the demand for delivery of food and products skyrocketed, people purchased cars at marked up prices to employ themselves to meet this increasing demand. It turned out to be a good business decision as higher interest rates now make car purchasing an even more expensive experience. What I am watching: It will be interesting to see how quickly the automotive industry and car dealers increase the incentives to offset the increased cost of borrowing to purchase a car. After the aggressive interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation over the past 18 months, there is rumbling that the Fed will soon begin cutting rates. If interest rates come down and borrowing for auto loans is more reasonable, the increase in demand will be a welcome sight for the auto sector that finally was able to ramp up supply.

Published: Dec 04, 2023 by Marsha Silverman

Experian and Oxford Economics Main Street Report for Q3 2023

Experian and Oxford Economics Main Street Report for Q3 shows signs of slowdown despite strong Q3 expansion and changing credit conditions.

Published: Nov 30, 2023 by Gary Stockton

Insights from the 11-21-23 Commercial Pulse Report – GDP up, inflation down, consumer spending strong

The aggressive interest rate hikes instituted by the Federal Reserve over the past year and a half may have achieved the desired goal. Easing inflation (3.2% in October) and strong GDP growth (4.9% in Q3) are some of the first indications that the economy may experience the “soft landing” hoped for instead of a recession. The consistently strong labor market produced low unemployment and increasing wages, enabling personal spending to increase. However, while spending continues to grow, the growth rate is on a downward trend. The high rate of spending has been driven by consumers digging into savings and borrowing more. As savings dwindle and the cost to borrow increases, it is likely that consumers will retreat and the pull-back will likely hit discretionary categories first. What I am watching: Heading into the holiday season, consumer spending is still strong but how long will it last? The National Retail Federation is projecting that November and December retail sales will grow 3-4% which is in line with the 3.6% average increase from 2010-2019 but lower than the past three years. People are already dipping into savings and borrowing more to continue their consumption but that well will run dry at some point. In addition, 36% of consumers cite December is a month for seasonal financial distress, according to PYMNTS. While consumers may continue spending through the holiday season, the tide may turn in early 2024 when bills hit with higher interest rates. Download Full Report Download the latest version of the Commercial Pulse Report here. Better yet, subscribe so you'll get it in your inbox every time it releases, or once a month as you choose.

Published: Nov 20, 2023 by Marsha Silverman

Attend the Q3 Quarterly Business Credit Review Webinar with Experian and Oxford Economics

Join the experts from Experian and Oxford Economics for a review of recent small business credit performance and outlook for coming months.

Published: Nov 16, 2023 by Gary Stockton

Insights from the 11-07-23 Commercial Pulse Report – Labor Union Impact on Public & Private Sectors

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. labor market has shifted. Compared to pre-pandemic levels, there are more people employed yet a lower labor force participation rate, higher quit rates and more job vacancies which results in a tight labor market. A tight labor market is empowering workers, and they are exercising that power in the form of worker strikes. In addition, new technologies such as in the auto industry and new business models such as streaming in the entertainment industry, are creating driving the need for employers to address changes to worker contracts. Inequality in the employer/employee relationship over the past few years has fueled worker unrest and they are now exercising their power in a demand for higher wages and benefits or a greater share in profits. 2023 is proving to be a landmark year in terms of the number of strikes as well as union elections. The result of these strikes has proven beneficial to workers with employees at major companies receiving significant increases in yearly compensation and benefits. Labor union participation rates have been declining since 1983 and reached historic lows in 2022, however, the number of workers represented by unions increased for the first time since 2017. The United States is experiencing a shift in states and unionization rates with some historically low union states experiencing significant growth. While unionization rates in total are decreasing across most industries, others are increasing their union efforts and demanding and achieving results. It is a challenging environment for employers and employees as inflation and high interest rates put pressure on the United States economy. As unionization rates have declined it has increased income inequality and lead to reductions in middle class income. This pressure on many employees in the United States has driven union approval rates to the highest levels since the mid 1960’s, with the majority of adults seeing the decrease in unions as a bad sign for the country and the labor force. What I am watching: The power and effectiveness of union walk-outs and strikes is being recognized in the United States workforce. Earlier this year, UPS and the International Brotherhood of Teamsters representing more than 300,000 UPS employees, negotiated and approved a new 5 year-contract with more than 86% support. The union’s president stated, “the contract was the most lucrative ever at UPS and would serve as a model for other workers.” The success of this effort has resonated in the economy with most notably the United Auto Workers staging walk-outs across multiple auto manufacturing plants which has resulted in a tentative contracts with the three Detroit automakers. The results of unionization are being recognized and union efforts are spreading across multiple industries. With employees realizing there is power in numbers it is anticipated that unionization rates will continue to grow as employees seek equal representation in the labor force. Download Full Report Download the latest version of the Commercial Pulse Report here. Better yet, subscribe so you'll get it in your inbox every time it releases, or once a month as you choose.

Published: Nov 07, 2023 by Gary Stockton

Small Business Revolution: Streamlining Credit Approvals with Experian’s RapidLend Bundle

Experian’s RapidLend Small Business bundle of credit decisioning software helps firms expand into small business channels and lend faster.

Published: Oct 23, 2023 by Nathalie Stecko

Insights from the 10/10/23 Commercial Pulse Report – Retail Sales Outlook

The perception of economic conditions among small business owners grows more pessimistic with the NFIB optimism index still well below the 49-year average and a persistent belief that access to borrowing is likely to get worse. With inflation coming in at 3.7%, still stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target, it is possible there will be more rate hikes in the coming months, which will make the cost of borrowing even higher. At the same time, small businesses are facing higher financing costs, the cost of labor continues to increase as workers can demand higher wages as employers struggle to find qualified workers for all their open positions. Meanwhile, there are still many signs pointing to a strong economy despite these challenges. Unemployment is still very low by historical standards as noticed by employers trying to fill open positions. Consumer spending continues to be strong with retail sales experiencing their sixth month-over-month gain in a row. As for credit tightening, both businesses and lenders report tightening but it may not be as bad it seems. Regular borrowing by small businesses on a monthto-month basis has recovered to pre-pandemic levels suggesting that even as borrowing costs are higher, small businesses still do have access to credit. New term loans are showing the average loan amount increasing and the number of new originations is only down 3% from the last quarter. Revolving accounts are faring less favorably but are also more likely to have variable interest rates that are sensitive to the increase in Fed rates. What I am watching: The Fed will have a difficult decision to make about interest rates at their next meeting on November 1 and in the coming months. Inflation has come down dramatically from its peak, but progress has stalled in the last few months. Unemployment is still very low and consumer spending is strong, but consumer and small business optimism is down. Housing costs are very high and high interest rates have slowed home sales as the cost to enter is high and existing homeowners are reluctant to sell. All these mixed signals make the path forward to achieve the coveted soft landing difficult to navigate and different Fed chairpersons have indicated different ideas on the matter. How the economy continues to fair in the coming holiday season and the response of the Fed to those conditions will be very closely followed as a result.

Published: Oct 23, 2023 by Marsha Silverman

Insights from the 11-21-23 Commercial Pulse Report – GDP up, inflation down, consumer spending strong

The aggressive interest rate hikes instituted by the Federal Reserve over the past year and a half may have achieved the desired goal. Easing inflation (3.2% in October) and strong GDP growth (4.9% in Q3) are some of the first indications that the economy may experience the “soft landing” hoped for instead of a recession. The consistently strong labor market produced low unemployment and increasing wages, enabling personal spending to increase. However, while spending continues to grow, the growth rate is on a downward trend. The high rate of spending has been driven by consumers digging into savings and borrowing more. As savings dwindle and the cost to borrow increases, it is likely that consumers will retreat and the pull-back will likely hit discretionary categories first. What I am watching: Heading into the holiday season, consumer spending is still strong but how long will it last? The National Retail Federation is projecting that November and December retail sales will grow 3-4% which is in line with the 3.6% average increase from 2010-2019 but lower than the past three years. People are already dipping into savings and borrowing more to continue their consumption but that well will run dry at some point. In addition, 36% of consumers cite December is a month for seasonal financial distress, according to PYMNTS. While consumers may continue spending through the holiday season, the tide may turn in early 2024 when bills hit with higher interest rates. Download Full Report Download the latest version of the Commercial Pulse Report here. Better yet, subscribe so you'll get it in your inbox every time it releases, or once a month as you choose.

Published: Nov 20, 2023 by Marsha Silverman

Segmenting and Targeting B2B Customers

If you want to get the most out of your marketing campaigns, it's important that they are tailored for a specific audience. We invited Tony Romero on Business Chat to talk about part two of his three-part Sip and Solve webinar series focused on B2B marketing where he explains how segmentation and targeting can make all aspects (landing page or email) more effective by using industry SIC as well as NAICS codes. Look-a-like analysis CMO's challenged with restricted budgets Analyzing portfolio diversity and targeting minority-led, women-led businesses Profiling prospects with limited data attributes   Watch Our Interview What follows is a lightly edited transcription of our talk. [Gary Stockton]: So in our last chat, we talked about maintaining robust marketing data to power effective campaigns and how clean data really helps businesses conduct effective marketing campaigns. This week, we switch gears to discuss the power of segmentation and targeting using industry SIC and NAICS codes to optimize your marketing budgets. So let's dive in. In our previous chat, we spoke about the changes that tech companies have enacted to make the job of targeting business prospects harder, but it's not game over for marketers. [Tony Romero]: No, definitely not. You know, it's really important to know that there's still a lot of a wealth of data out there that can be used to identify and segment target customers. You know, the first-party data obviously is really key, as well as being able to take information that may be spotty. If, for example, you only have a name or address, you can be able to through services like ours, be able to get a full, comprehensive set of data on that customer, both firmographic, demographic, and credit information, and then be able to use that to promote to customers. [Gary Stockton]: So can you share some examples of how Experian data can help marketers hone in on their target customer, for example, how SICs and NAICS codes can help? [Tony Romero]: Yeah, Gary, you're right. SIC and NAICS codes provide information about what industry the business is in. And so, by knowing that, you're able to target those consumers. So again, as I mentioned before, you can take a look at your existing customer base and find out who's your ideal target customer. And from that, then you can compare that to prospective businesses that look just like that. And that's what's called a lookalike analysis. And by using SIC and NAICS codes, you're able to use that to segment the market and then be able to promote effectively. And Gary, you also mentioned that with the economic state, CMOs have to watch their budgets and be as efficient as possible these days. So again, by doing very good segmenting of your target audience, you are making sure that your finance and financial output to a campaign are as efficient as possible. [Gary Stockton]: Excellent, regulators, they're focusing on diversity, equity, and inclusion. How can Experian help clients in that effort? [Tony Romero]: You know? Yeah. That's a very key point and definitely more than ever. It's important to focus on identifying your existing portfolio and seeing how many customers in your portfolio are minority-led or women-led businesses. So you can do benchmarking, you can see how you fare against other businesses in your market space. And that helps you to determine how much more do you need to market to these minority or women-led businesses. So what's number one is the benchmarking, but secondly, you need to be able to go out and look at your prospective target list and find out who are minority-led or women-led. And there, getting an indicator about a Woman-led or Minority-led business allows you to promote specifically to those types of businesses to help increase your portfolio. [Gary Stockton]: That's good. So if all I have is a name and an email address, and in a lot of cases, you know, if we're driving a newsletter, can I still profile this contact? Or are there other ways to do that with minimal info? [Tony Romero]: Yes, there is. You know, even just having a name and address is enough data to go through our type of service and be able to append all of the other information that we talked about, whether it's firmographic with SIC or NAICS codes, it could be demographic information where we look at the business and find out who the consumers that are tied to that business are? So that's called a B2C linkage. And from that now, you know who the actual individual is and go target those specific individuals. So that's also another key point to bring out [Gary Stockton]: Excellent stuff, Tony. Well, folks, if you enjoyed this chat and want to go a level deeper, don't miss Tony's campaign targeting Sip and Solve webinar – Fine Tuning B2b Campaign Targeting. He goes into greater detail on targeting B2B prospects, just click the image to be taken over to the recording.

Published: Aug 23, 2022 by Gary Stockton

Optimizing B2B Marketing Data for Better Campaigns | Business Chat

We’re talking B2B marketing data hygiene with Tony Romero from our product team today on Business Chat.

Published: Jul 28, 2022 by Gary Stockton

Supercharge your B2B marketing campaigns with Experian data and solutions

Experian can be your trusted provider to supercharge B2B marketing campaigns with powerful data, analytics and consulting services.

Published: Jun 29, 2022 by Tony Romero

Successful B2B marketing in a changing landscape

As data privacy regulations become more strict and tech firms implement change, we share how marketers can remain effective while remaining compliant.

Published: Apr 11, 2022 by Gary Stockton

Introducing Business TargetIQ, B2B marketing with powerful business credit insights

Experian Business Information Services recently introduced a powerful new marketing platform called Business TargetIQ. Product Manager, Kelly DeBoer answered a few questions about the product and described use cases that promote greater collaboration between credit and marketing departments. What does Business TargetIQ do? Business TargetIQ is our new marketing platform so it's a B2B marketing platform where clients can access data for marketing applications. How is it different from other business marketing platforms? It is unique in that it not only includes your standard or core firmagraphic information but also includes Experian's credit attributes. Does it have credit data? What does that mean to marketing or collaboration? Typically marketing data and credit data are housed in separate silos of information. With this tool the information will be combined together which will allow the tool not only to be used in traditional marketing applications for targeting but can also be in that risk factor which applies to different divisions within our client's applications or use cases of the data. Who would most benefit from Business TargetIQ? The thing about Business TargetIQ is it truly applies to all different verticals, as well as all different contacts within the company. So whether it's a financial vertical or a trade vertical, retail, just across the board all clients can utilize this. Anybody that's doing marketing can utilize this platform. What core problems does Business TargetIQ solve? It solves a lot of different problems, so, the most common client issues that are brought to our attention are gaps in data, as well as in the marketing initiatives. So they may have data in-house but they have holes within the data. Our tool will allow them to not only upload their client records and fill in a lot of those gaps that they may have, whether it be contact information, or firmagraphics or address information. It will standardize that data and fill in those gaps. But will also provide the means to again use that data. Our business database which has over 16 million records. They can then utilize that information for prospecting, for data append, for analytics, for research applications, so it solves a lot of problems with regard to marketing and data concerns. How does credit data help with prospecting? So what we find is clients come to us and they may say you know I have an idea of what our clients look like, they're in this SIC or in this industry code, or they have this sales volume or employee size, but what they may not know is on the back end which really helps identify and target those businesses is the credit attributes, so the risk factors around those. So do they have delinquencies in their payments? Have they filed bankruptcies? Do they have UCC filings? So it allows them to take it that next step and not only really define what their clients look like, but identify clients that look like that. Learn More About Business TargetIQ

Published: Nov 05, 2018 by

3 tips to improve your prospecting

So you’ve created the perfect campaign with great creatives and an unbeatable offer. You deploy the campaign and sit on the edge of your seat waiting for all the leads to flood in. After a couple of days, you notice a couple of responses but nowhere near the volume of what you were hoping for, and you’re stuck asking yourself “why?” Here are a couple of hypotheses: 1.) the people you reached out to aren’t the right audience so they don’t care about your offer, or 2.) your target audience didn’t see your efforts because you used the wrong channel. The process of finding new business customers can be expensive and sometimes unpredictable, but it doesn’t have to be. Here are 3 tips to help improve your prospecting efforts: Tip #1: Define your ideal customer One of the most fundamental ways you can help grow your current customer base is to have a clear understanding of what they actually look like (or defining what they should look like). What’s their job title? What are their biggest business challenges? Are they web savvy? How do they prefer to get industry news? Addressing discovery questions like these allows you to better understand who you’re talking to and how to talk to them. Additionally, you’ll be able to use this profile to help you mimic your best customers and target look-a-likes.   Tip #2: Target new businesses Get your products/services in front of new businesses before your competitors. Not surprisingly, many marketers overlook targeting new businesses because of the lack of data — how do you know a new company is in business? How do you know if they’re the right business for you to even target? Fortunately, there are many services in today's market that can help fill in the gaps. Using something like Experian’s US Business Database, which is a database of more than 16 million active U.S. companies, can help you discover new businesses sooner and beat out your competitors to reach them first.  Tip #3: Find the decision-makers Identifying the right businesses to target is important, but ensuring that your offer gets in front of the right person – the decision maker – is even better. By finding the decision maker and directing your marketing efforts towards them, you can rest assure that your message lands in the hands of the person that matters most. Want to take it one step further? Once you know who you’re talking to, you can tailor the message and offer to be more relevant for that specific audience, which ultimately helps increase your chances of getting a response.      Finding and reaching new business customers can be a daunting and expensive tasks, especially if you don’t target your prospecting efforts. Be sure to keep these tips in mind when approaching your marketing strategy and don’t let today’s data challenges hold you back. Learn more about Experian's US Business Database or our other marketing capabilities.

Published: Feb 27, 2018 by

Helping customers optimize B2B marketing campaigns with rich data

I had the pleasure of speaking with Kelly DeBoer recently. She is a Product Manager at Experian working in Business Information Services. Kelly leads product strategy for our business marketing products. In this Business Q&A we talk about B2B marketing trends and how Experian is helping business clients get the most out of their marketing initiatives. Gary: B2B marketing has changed significantly in the last five years. What are some of the important trends that you're seeing? Kelly: What we're seeing in the B2B space is really what we've seen in the B2C space for years, and that is, our clients are really trying to gain as much insight into their not only existing clients but potential clients as well? So you know additional firmographic information, credit information, anything that gives them a fuller picture of their clients, and then not only how to retain their existing clients and cross-sell, but also in terms of prospecting, how to best reach these targets once we've identified them what's the best channels to reach those prospects to get the best response. Gary: Kelly, most of our clients think of Experian Business Information Services as firstly business data and credit risk management. So how are we helping clients with their marketing initiatives? Kelly: With regard to B2B marketing, Experian has a tremendous amount of marketing assets including not only our U.S. Business Database which has over 16 million businesses. We also overlay that with our credit information, so clients can come and tap into this this huge resource to help them with their targeting in terms of selecting by firmographics, employee size, sales volume, as well as credit attributes, UCC filings, bankruptcies, information that can be translated to marketing campaigns. It can be utilized for direct marketing, for telemarketing, for digital applications – social media, email campaigns, analytical solutions, modeling. So it's a vast amount of resources that we can tap into to help with marketing campaigns. Gary: Can you share about some B2B marketing solutions we can look forward to from Experian? Kelly: Experian has a lot on the horizon with regard to B2B marketing. But one thing I'm particularly excited about is our new B2C linkage business to consumer linkage. Ultimately our clients have been coming to us saying you know, we're looking for a way to link our consumer records to any businesses that they may be associated with. So we create a customized linkage system that allows us to take in those consumer records, match them to our commercial repositories, and then provide back information that allows our clients to then not only target that consumer at their residential address but also their business address. So it gives them a chance to cross-sell and up-sell commercial offers as well as their consumer offers. Experian Business Marketing Solutions

Published: Jan 30, 2018 by

Make Campaigns More Predictable with Propensity Modeling

Ten years ago movie night at our house would usually include a run to the video store where we would pick out a selection from the New Arrivals section, some candy, perhaps some popcorn and we would have our fingers crossed the selection was a good one. Nowadays it’s not uncommon to find us binge watching streamed episodes of “House of Cards” or “Mad Men on weekends.” What’s even more gratifying is after watching “House of Cards” unprompted, Netflix now recommends “The Newsroom” and other shows we invariably like. How do they know we would like these shows? This is predictive marketing at work, driven by big data. Netflix has developed sophisticated propensity models around each member’s viewing habits, and the net result is a better viewing experience with the service. We make amazing entertainment discoveries every week. In business marketing propensity models will determine which prospects or customers are likely to respond to a particular offer. For example, the marketing department of a large financial institution seeking to expand their commercial small business loan portfolio, might want to segment and target commercial lending offers to a concentration of customers most likely to accept a particular offer. When applied in business, propensity models can unlock opportunities for increased profit, share of wallet and deeper engagement with prospects and customers. At Experian, in a typical propensity modeling engagement we will first meet with our customers to understand their goals and objectives. We talk first about pre-screen criteria that enable us to screen out prospects that would not fit into the criteria. A sporting equipment manufacturer would probably not sell to companies in the mining or agriculture industries, so we weed out the ones least likely to lead to a successful conversion. Our data scientists and statisticians get to work on large data sets and evaluate a number of factors. Experian will then develop a customized response model that will identify significant characteristics of responders vs. non responders and therefore will maximally differentiate responders from non responders. Since (holding other factors constant) a higher response rate is preferred, a response model can help lower the cost per response. The response model will generate a “score” that can be used to rank order the prospects base in terms of response likelihood. The response model can be used in two different ways to achieve maximum effectiveness. It can be used to optimize the number of responders for a given sized solicitation, or it may be used to minimize the number of solicitations in order to achieve a budgeted number of responders. A high response score will indicate someone who is likely to respond, as is shown graphically in Exhibits 1 and 2. This work results in a model of the ideal target to which an offer would most likely resonate with. This is called a lookalike. The marketing department at our large financial institution might start off with a large list of potential candidates to send the offer via direct mail, 1 million for example. But mailing an offer to that many people may be cost prohibitive. A propensity model can identify prospects most likely to accept the offer, so your direct mail campaign is more targeted, thereby increasing ROI. A highly targeted mailing to your ideal targets is a safer bet, and would make for a much more predictable outcome. The marketer can feel more confident mailing an offer to lookalike prospects because the chances of successful conversion are that much higher. That’s the case for Woodland Hills based ForwardLine, who have been providing alternative short-term financing to small businesses since 2003. Working with Experian Decision Analytics, ForwardLine did an analysis of their direct marketing program and determined that 22 percent of direct mail was generating 68 percent of their underwriting approvals, exposing a significant gap in wasted marketing funds. The Experian Decision Analytics team developed a custom model which enabled ForwardLine to algorithmically target lookalike prospects with a higher propensity to convert into a successful loan engagement. Michael Carlson, V.P Marketing, ForwardLine ForwardLine Vice President of Marketing, Michael Carlson is thrilled with the initial results. “Working with Experian we were not only able to improve performance, but we are able to reduce our marketing spend, while achieving the same results. We have taken our direct marketing effort from a small program that was profitable, but not meaningful in terms of generating significant volume, to working with Experian to achieve remarkable results. It’s largely why we enjoyed 20 percent growth this year.”     Best in Industry Credit Attributes Experian clients use our archived Biz AttributesSM along with collection specific data elements as independent variables for propensity model development. Experian’s Biz AttributesSM are a set of commercial bureau attribute definitions (includes several key demographic attributes as well) which are accurately developed off Experian’s Commercial BizSourceSM credit bureau. When used for response model development, Biz AttributesSM provides significant performance lift over other credit attributes. Biz AttributesSM are also effective in segmentation, as overlay to scores and policy rules definition, providing greater decisioning accuracy. Additionally, at Experian we are constantly monitoring our growing data warehouse looking for ways to develop new attributes. We live in an ever changing market place which requires us to develop new credit and demographic attributes as well as making enhancements to existing attributes. This process takes a disciplined, rigorous, and comprehensive approach based on experience guided by data intelligence. Our goal is to provide world-class service and the industry’s best practices for modeling attributes. To keep pace with market changes, new attributes are developed as new data elements become available, while raw data elements and existing attributes are monitored and managed following rigorous and comprehensive attribute governance protocols to ensure continued integrity of attributes. If you would like to learn more about propensity models, contact your Experian representative today.

Published: Feb 09, 2015 by