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By: Kari Michel Lending institutions are more challenged today than ever before when assessing credit risk to find creditworthy consumers. Since 2006, the start of the housing bust and recession, consumer’s overall creditworthiness has deteriorated, especially those consumers who once had a high score (low risk). “For example, a study earlier this year by VantageScore® Solutions LLC found that the probability of serious delinquency, defined as nonpayment for 90 days or more, had increased by 417 percent among “super prime” borrowers between June 2007 and June 2009. Default risk during the same period rose by 406 percent for the second-highest rated category of “prime” consumers, and nearly doubled for those at the “near prime” scoring level.”* The VantageScore® credit score model is one example of a credit risk model that was recently redeveloped to capture the changing consumer behavior of repayment. The development data set included 45 million consumer credit profiles for the time period of 2006 to 2009. The VantageScore® credit score will be released for lenders use January 2011. *Source: The Washington Post, “Walk-aways leading to big changes for all borrower’s credit score, November 5, 2010 Link for article: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/05/AR2010110502133.html
By: Kristan Frend According to the 2011 Identity Theft Assistance Center Outlook (ITAC), new forms of small business identity theft are emerging. This shouldn’t be a surprise that criminals view small business accounts as a lucrative funding source. What is surprising is that the ‘new’ form of small business identity theft consists of the U.S. Postal Inspection Service reporting a surge in criminal rings using small business information from stolen mail, check writing software and other tactics to counterfeit checks. That’s the new wave of small business identity theft??? I consider this one of the least sophisticated types of fraud that can easily be eliminated by small business owners not leaving mail unattended. Reading this report makes me realize that we have a long way to go in identifying and reporting the more sophisticated types of small business fraud. As I’ve mentioned before, the industry has come a long way in advancing consumer fraud solutions. Yet, as fraud has migrated into business accounts, we as an industry still have a ways to go in reporting the latest business fraud trends and tracking statistics. I’m adding this to my wish list for 2011… What’s on your wish list? On a side note, I’ve noticed nearly all of the articles posted in our blog include no reader comments. I’d like to think that this means our readers are too busy to add comments and/or our articles are so well-written that they answer all of your questions. One can dream right? Seriously though, as we approach 2011 and plan our topics, we’d love to hear from you- if you can think of any topic you’d like us to cover more in depth, please let us know.
By: Kristan Frend As my colleague Margarita Lim discussed in her December 3rd article, the SSA announced that it will change how social security numbers (SSNs) will be issued, with a move toward a random method of assigning SSNs. For organizations that currently incorporate the validation of an applicant’s SSN issue date and state as a part of their risk-based decisioning, they will lose this piece of applicant authentication post-randomization. But there is some good news – first, this validation piece won’t be entirely terminated on day one of the SSN randomization for organizations. All the change means is that the newly issued SSNs will be randomized. In other words, the only SSNs that the issue data and state won’t be validated on day one are the SSNs that have just been issued to the recently born or immigrants. Given that its likely newborns won’t be applying for credit for another 18 years, the bulk of the newly issued SSNs that organizations will see for a while are those belonging to adults who were recently issued a SSN…A growing number of applicants, but not the majority of applicants. The other bit of good news is this may actually be a good thing for all of us in the long run. While we’ll end up losing the ability to validate an applicant’s SSN issue data and state, the criminals will be at an even greater disadvantage. Consider this- Last year researchers* were able to “identify all nine digits for 8.5 percent of people born after 1988 in fewer than 1,000 attempts. For people born recently in smaller states, researchers sometimes needed just 10 or fewer attempts to predict all nine digits.” I don’t expect this change to drastically reduce third party fraud rates but over time it should eliminate one component of identity theft and ultimately benefit an organization’s Customer Information Program. *The National Science Foundation, the U.S. Army Research Office, Carnegie Melon Cylab, and the Berkman Faculty Development Fund provided support for the research. To view the entire study, please visit http://www.pnas.org/content/106/27/10975.full.pdf+html.
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With the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show set to kickoff later this week, it seemed fitting to explore how the shifting dynamics of the used vehicle market might impact dealers and buyers over the coming year. Shedding light on some of the registration and finance trends, as well as purchasing behaviors, can help dealers and manufacturers stay ahead of the curve. And just like that, the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report was born. As I was sifting through the data, one of the trends that stood out to me was the neck-and-neck race between Millennials and Gen X for supremacy in the used vehicle market. Five years ago, in 2019, Millennials were responsible for 33.3% of used retail registrations, followed by Gen X (29.5%) and Baby Boomers (26.8%). Since then, Baby Boomers have gradually fallen off, and Gen X continues to close the already minuscule gap. Through October 2024, Millennials accounted for 31.6%, while Gen X accounted for 30.4%. But trends can turn on a dime if the last year offers any indication. Over the last rolling 12 months (October 2023-October 2024), Gen X (31.4%) accounted for the majority of used vehicle registrations compared to Millennials (30.9%). Of course, the data is still close, and what 2025 holds is anyone’s guess, but understanding even the smallest changes in market share and consumer purchasing behaviors can help dealers and manufacturers adapt and navigate the road ahead. Although there are similarities between Millennials and Gen X, there are drastic differences, including motivations and preferences. Dealers and manufacturers should engage them on a generational level. What are they buying? Some of the data might not come as a surprise but it’s a good reminder that consumers are in different phases of life, meaning priorities change. Over the last rolling 12 months, Millennials over-indexed on used vans, accounting for more than one-third of registrations. Meanwhile, Gen X over-indexed on used trucks, making up nearly one-third of registrations, and Gen Z over-indexed on cars (accounting for 17.1% of used car registrations compared to 14.6% of overall used vehicle registrations). This isn’t surprising. Many Millennials have young families and may need extra space and functionality, while Gen Xers might prefer the versatility of the pickup truck—the ability to use it for work and personal use. On the other hand, Gen Zers are still early in their careers and gravitate towards the affordability and efficiency of smaller cars. Interestingly, although used electric vehicles only make up a small portion of used retail registrations (less than 1%), Millennials made up nearly 40% over the last rolling 12 months, followed by Gen X (32.2%) and Baby Boomers (15.8%). The market at a bird’s eye view Pulling back a bit on the used vehicle landscape, over the last rolling 12 months, CUVs/SUVs (38.9%) and cars (36.6%) accounted for the majority of used retail registrations. And nearly nine-in-ten used registrations were non-luxury vehicles. What’s more, ICE vehicles made up 88.5% of used retail registrations over the same period, while alternative-fuel vehicles (not including BEVs) made up 10.7% and electric vehicles made up 0.8%. At the finance level, we’re seeing the market shift ever so slightly. Since the beginning of the pandemic, one of the constant narratives in the industry has been the rising cost of owning a vehicle, both new and used. And while the average loan amount for a used non-luxury vehicle has gone up over the past five years, we’re seeing a gradual decline since 2022. In 2019, the average loan amount was $22,636 and spiked $29,983 in 2022. In 2024, the average loan amount reached $28,895. Much of the decline in average loan amounts can be attributed to the resurgence of new vehicle inventory, which has resulted in lower used values. With new leasing climbing over the past several quarters, we may see more late-model used inventory hit the market in the next few years, which will most certainly impact used financing. The used market moving forward Relying on historical data and trends can help dealers and manufacturers prepare and navigate the road ahead. Used vehicles will always fit the need for shoppers looking for their next vehicle; understanding some market trends will help ensure dealers and manufacturers can be at the forefront of helping those shoppers. For more information on the Special Report: Automotive Consumer Trends Report, visit Experian booth #627 at the NADA Show in New Orleans, January 23-26.
The automotive industry is constantly changing. Shifting consumer demands and preferences, as well as dynamic economic factors, make the need for data-driven insights more important than ever. As we head into the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show this week, we wanted to explore some of the trends in the used vehicle market in our Special Report: State of the Automotive Finance Market Report. Packed with valuable insights and the latest trends, we’ll take a deep dive into the multi-faceted used vehicle market and better understand how consumers are financing used vehicles. 9+ model years grow Although late-model vehicles tend to represent much of the used vehicle finance market, we were surprised by the gradual growth of 9+ model year (MY) vehicles. In 2019, 9+MY vehicles accounted for 26.6% of the used vehicle sales. Since then, we’ve seen year-over-year growth, culminating with 9+MY vehicles making up a little more than 30% of used vehicle sales in 2024. Perhaps more interesting though, is who is financing these vehicles. Five years ago, prime and super prime borrowers represented 42.5% of 9+MY vehicles, however, in 2024, those consumers accounted for nearly 54% of 9+MY originations. Among the more popular 9+MY segments, CUVs and SUVs comprised 36.9% of sales in 2024, up from 35.2% in 2023, while cars went from 44.3% to 42.9% year-over-year and pickup trucks decreased from 15.9% to 15.6%. 2024 highlights by used vehicle age group To get a better sense of the overall used market, the segments were broken down into three age groups—9+MY, 4-8MY, and current +3MY—and to no surprise, the finance attributes vary widely. While we’ve seen the return of new vehicle inventory drive used vehicle values lower, it could be a sign that consumers are continuing to seek out affordable options that fit their lifestyle. In fact, the average loan amount for a 9+MY vehicle was $19,376 in 2024, compared to $24,198 for a vehicle between 4-8 years old and $32,381 for +3MY vehicle. Plus, more than 55% of 9+MY vehicles have monthly payments under $400. That’s not an insignificant number for people shopping with the monthly payment in mind. In 2024, the average monthly payment for a used vehicle that falls under current+3MY was $608. Meanwhile, 4-8MY vehicles came in at an average monthly payment of $498, and 9+MY vehicles had a $431 monthly payment. Taking a deeper dive into average loan amounts based on specific vehicle types—as of 2024, current +3MY cars came in at $28,721, followed by CUVs/SUVs ($31,589) and pickup trucks ($40,618). As for 4-8MY vehicles, cars came in with a loan amount of $22,013, CUVs/SUVs were at $23,133, and pickup trucks at $31,114. Used 9+MY cars had a loan amount of $19,506, CUVs/SUVs came in at $17,350, and pickup trucks at $22,369. With interest rates remaining top of mind for most consumers as we’ve seen them increase in recent years, understanding the growth from 2019-2024 can give a holistic picture of how the market has shifted over time. For instance, the average interest rate for a used current+3MY vehicle was 8.0% in 2019 and grew to 10.2% in 2024, the average rate for a 4-8MY vehicle went from 10.3% to 12.9%, and the average rate for a 9+MY vehicle increased from 11.4% to 13.8% in the same time frame. Looking ahead to the used vehicle market It’s important for automotive professionals to understand and leverage the data of the used market as it can provide valuable insights into trending consumer behavior and pricing patterns. While we don’t exactly know where the market will stand in a few years—adapting strategies based on historical data and anticipating shifts can help professionals better prepare for both challenges and opportunities in the future. As used vehicles remain a staple piece of the automotive industry, making informed decisions and optimizing inventory management will ensure agility as the market continues to shift. For more information, visit us at the Experian booth (#627) during the NADA Show in New Orleans from January 23-26.
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typesetting, remaining essentially unchanged. It was popularised in the 1960s with the release of Letraset sheets containing Lorem Ipsum passages, and more recently with desktop publishing software like Aldus PageMaker including versions of Lorem Ipsum.