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By: Staci Baker As the economy has been hit by the hardest recession since the Great Depression, many people wonder how and when it will recover. And, once we start to see recovery, will consumer credit return to what it once was? In a recent Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report quarterly webinar, 70% of the respondents in a survey said they believe consumer debt will return to pre-2008 levels. Clearly, many believe that consumer spending and borrowing will return, despite the fact that consumer credit card borrowing recently declined for the 24th straight month*. Assuming that this optimism is valid, what can credit card lenders do to evaluate the risk levels of potential customers as they attempt to grow their portfolios? For lenders, determining who needs credit, as well as whom to lend to in this economic environment, can be quite challenging. However, there are many tools available to assist lenders in assessing credit risk and growing their portfolio. Many lenders look at a consumer’s credit score, such as the tri-bureau VantageScore, to evaluate their credit worthiness. By utilizing an individual’s VantageScore, a lender is able to determine potential customer risk levels. Another way to evaluate a consumer’s credit worthiness is to evaluate a population using credit attributes. Based on the attributes a lender is looking for in their portfolio, they can see improvement in evaluating risk prediction in their portfolio using pre-determined attributes, especially those specifically designed for the credit card industry. There are also models that can help lenders predict when a consumer is likely to be in the market for a new loan or account. Experian’s In the Market Models provide lenders with product-specific segmentation tools that can be combined with risk scores to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of their offers. To identify the optimal cross-sell and line management decisions based on an individual customer’s risk score and potential value, a lender can also utilize optimization tools. Optimization, combined with a viable risk management strategy, can assist a lender to achieve a healthy portfolio growth in a highly constrained environment. Although lenders will need to determine the best method to meet their objectives, these are just a few of the many tools available that will assist them in correctly growing their lending portfolios. ____________________ * http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2010-10-07-consumer-credit_N.htm

By: Margarita Lim You may be surprised to learn that identity theft isn’t just a crime committed by an individual or individuals. There are identity theft rings that are organized and operated like corporations. A recent Justice Department press release described such an operation in New Jersey that involved 53 individuals who took part in a known fraud activity called Bust Out Fraud. Basically, the fraud ring purchased valid social security cards and then sold the social security cards to customers who then obtained driver’s licenses and other proof of identity-type cards. The fraud ring then built up the credit scores of these customers by adding them to existing credit card accounts. Once the customers with the fraudulent identities achieved good credit scores, then they opened their own fraudulent bank accounts, credit cards, lines of credit, etc. The credit cards were used to make fraudulent purchases or rack up charges with vendors in co-hoots with the fraud ring and the fraudulent bank accounts were used to pay off the charge accounts or the charges went unpaid. Fraud trends like these cost banks, credit card companies and many others millions of dollars – costs that ultimately get passed on to you and me, the consumers. Fortunately, Experian has Fraud Products that can help companies minimize fraud losses from Bust Out Fraud as well as other types of fraud. Our BustOut Score helps decrease bust out losses by predicting and detecting bust out frauds one to three months in advance of the event happening. In addition, we have Fraud Shield Indicators or fraud alerts available on credit reports that flag when there is a recent or new authorized user added to an established credit account. Experian supports Identity Theft Prevention Programs by offering highly accurate consumer identity verification services. We’re not reliant solely on credit bureau data and are able to use multi-sourced data to confirm different components of a consumer’s identity – name, address, date of birth, etc. Our consumer authentication and fraud prevention product, Precise ID, and our knowledge based authentication product, Knowledge IQ, are highly respected in the marketplace for their reliability, quality and accuracy.

With the issue of delayed bank foreclosures at the top of the evening news, I wanted to provide a different perspective on the issue and highlight what I think are some very important, yet often underestimated risks hidden within this issue. For many homeowners, the process of becoming delinquent and eventually going into default is actually a cash-flow positive experience. The process offers these borrowers temporary “free rent,” whereby a major previous monthly commitment is no longer a monthly obligation, freeing up cash for other purposes, including paying other bills. For those consumers who are managing cash flow issues each month, the lack of a mortgage commitment immediately allows them to meet other commitments more easily – making payments on credit cards and car loans that may have previously also become delinquent. From the perspective of a credit card or auto lender, the extended foreclosure process is a short-term positive – it allows a borrower who had previously struggled to remain current to now pay on time and in the short-run, contributes to portfolio health. Although these lenders will experience an improvement in delinquency rates, the reality is that the credit risk is simply dormant. At some point, the consumer’s mortgage will go into foreclosure, and which point the consumer will again be under pressure to continue meeting their obligations. The hidden and significant risk management issue is the misinterpretation of improved delinquency rates. Halting foreclosures means that an accumulating number of consumers are going to enter into this delayed stage of ‘free rent’, without any immediate prospect of having to make a rent or mortgage payment in the near future. In fact, according to Bank of America, “the average foreclosed borrower has not made a payment in 18 months”. This extended period of foreclosure delay will naturally result in a larger number of consumers being able to meet their non-mortgage obligations – but only while their free-rent status exists. A lender who has an interest in the “free rent” consumer is actually sitting on a time-bomb. When foreclosures stop or slow to a rate that is less than consumers entering it, that group will continue to grow in size – until foreclosures start again – at which point thousands of consumers will be processed and will have to start managing rent/housing payments again. Almost immediately, thousands of consumers who have had no problems meeting their obligations will have to start making decisions about which to pay and which not to pay. So, this buildup of rent-free mortgage holders presents a serious risk management issue to non-mortgage lenders that must be addressed. Lenders who have a relationship with a consumer who is delinquent on their mortgage may be easily fooled into thinking that they are not exposed to the same credit risk as mortgage lenders, but I think that these lenders will quickly find that consumers who have lived rent-free for over a year will have a very difficult time managing this transition, and if not diligent, credit card issuers and automotive lenders may find themselves in trouble. _____________________ http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/World/2010/10/08/15629836.html
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